IgotBILLStopay

I was very dismissive of Oweh early - but am warming up to him after my semi deep dive. I don’t mind Oweh so much if Rousseau and Phillips are off the board. But I’d rather Beane was responsible for one of em being off the board. TJ Watt my friend

Agree he is elite. Perfect fit for a 3-4. Steelers may take him to replace Bud Dupree. Too small to play 4-3 at least as of now, no? So we shd pass on him. I like him too - just not in the neighborhood of 30

Huh? TJ Watt says hello.

Pass rusher has been our number 1 need since the AFC championship game and McD said it himself - And we have basically punted during free agency since the elite pass rushers were too rich for us - we did get Obada, but how much of an impact he is going to have is to be seen (I am excited to see what he can do). That means basically it is one of two positions that every observer from here to Timbuctoo expects the Bills to target in the draft (the other being CB 2). Josh Allen basically admitted as much when he said he expects the Bills to go defense heavy in the draft. I have basically 3 Edge Rushers - Kwity Paye, Greg Rousseau and Jaelan Phillips in some detail (I also looked at Jayson Oweh and Azeez Ojulari is somewhat less detail) - and here are my pre-draft thoughts on their relative strengths and weaknesses. These 3 have been the consensus first rounders for over a year now. Kwity Paye appears to have the highest floor and I love his refugee story and he will be a pretty safe pick - but I have concerns about his ceiling. I think he is a slightly more powerful Shaq Lawson without any shoulder issues that derailed Lawson's rookie campaign. He gets in position for run blocks pretty well - but on the flip side he does get blocked easily despite being in position. He plays a lot lighter than his stated 261 lb weight. My biggest concern about him is that he gets faked too often (like Edmunds on his rookie campaign)- I think he will be a bit of a liability in the run game. He is an athletic freak and keeps fighting to win against the Olineman (so has a great motor). But he does not appear to have an overpowering first move trait that will lead to quick wins at the LOS. And you want a first rounder to not just hold his own but dominate at least once in a while. I usually pay more attention to 10 yard split timings than the 40 yard dash and he was a trifle slow at 1.66 secs. Here is one highlight video Jaelan Phillips is another athletic freak. He has all the right measurables and had an outstanding 2020 campaign with 7 sacks in just 10 games. He has an explosive first step and a decent motor. I thought speed was a weakness till he ran a 1.59 10 yard split on his pro-day. The only red flag is the medical history. He is young and I am not worried about his wrist injury - looks to have healed well. But concussions are another animal altogether. If it was serious enough for him to quit football (and come back ofc), I am worried. IF medical issues are not a concern - he is the clear no. 1 choice. But the concussion history is real. McD's familiarity with Manny Diaz will hopefully help in the Bills getting some insider info on the medicals - but no coach can ethically say anything bad about his player - so I dont know. Here are his highlights! Drool away. Greg Rousseau was a consensus top 10 (maybe top 5) pick after the 2019 season. And he has not played a game since then and more importantly has no injury concerns. You dont get 15.5 sacks in a P5 conference by accident folks. That too after becoming a starter only 5 games into the season. First - the guy is a legit 6'6" with an 83 inch wingspan - see how many times the offensive player thinks he has eluded Rousseau - but still gets run down. That is the wingspan showing - you cant acquire it. Dont get fooled by his slow 40 yard time - that is pretty useless for a D lineman. His 10 yard split was a scorching 1.57 secs. That tells you how quickly he can get off his blocks. And Rousseau has the best motor of all three guys. Several of his sacks are where he actually chases guys down. Let us see Mahomes try to run away from him. And dont knock him for opting out. It was the smart decision given the uncertainty of the college season at the time. He makes immediate money for his family, does not risk injury and still gets drafted early. Coming to the reason the pundits (like PFF) are bailing on him 🙄. His pro day performance across the board - yes his 40 time was slow but that is a useless drill at his position. He bench pressed 21 times - and that is actually fantastic given his nearly 35 inch arms! He also has 11 inch hands to grab the QB and hold on. The broad jump and vertical jump are again completely useless for a Dlineman. The only drill that should cause concern is the 3-cone - which actually does speak to his bending and change of direction ability. He knocked the obstacle down on his first two tries and then was clocked a slow 7.5 on his third attempt. Anyone would be slow running a third time. Even if he is bad on that drill relative to his peers - the game tape doesnt lie. The guy has amazing bend. Apparently he did put on some weight in 2020 - but a summer of conditioning with the Bills staff and he will be in top shape come September. I am a bit old school - I think of every combine standout as Mike Mamula and rely more on game tape. He has the highest ceiling of the three. Take Montez Sweat and JPP and mix them up and you get Rousseau. What is there not to like? Dont believe the pundits on this one and seize the opportunity. Bottomline: My pick order would be 1. Greg Rousseau 2. Jaelan Phillips 3. Kwity Paye. If the Bills are convinced Phillips' medicals are not worrisome - I dont mind going 1. Phillips 2. Rousseau and 3. Paye. Phillips has the best burst and Rousseau the best motor. If I am worried about Brady / Brees like QBs who get rid of the ball early - I'd go Phillips. If I am worried about the Wilson / Mahomes / Allen / Lamar type, I go Rousseau. Or jsut wait till one is taken and trade up to take the other. These two guys are elite talents who would likely have gone top 10 in a normal year. It is time to shoot the moon folks! We have a decent line but, as McD observed, we need difference makers - not just decent players. And these two are difference makers - way more than Kwity Paye. The offensive draft strength (OLs, QBs, WRs) in 2021 gives us a shot at one of these two (at least one should be there at 20+) and we should trade up to get him.

Farley is an elite man coverage talent (top 10) when healthy. But a slight misfit for the Bills since he is a bit weak in zone coverage - which is what we need opposite Tre. So if he is healthy, several other teams would likely jump on him before the Bills do. That being said, if he is still there when pick 60 rolls around, all bets are off - since the value is just too much to pass on - even if he has to sit a year. I expect him to go before pick 40 fir sure.

Greg Rousseau

he is disgruntled and a UFA after this season. To roughly get a mid second rounder for him is a steal.

Baltimore made out well.

Umm without a deep dive into the issue -prior to reading the article i can think of at least 3 instances where a playoff team drafting a RB in round 1 went to the super bowl in his rookie season - Chiefs (with Edwards-Helaire), Pats (with Sony Michel) and the Steelers (with Rashard Mendenhall). SO "never" is pretty strong no? now I have skimmed it and they discount Michel and Edwards-Helaire's role in getting their respective teams to the Super Bowl, which is pretty lame.

So, something similar was said here: and that OP, @FireChans was vilified. Cannot understand this board sometimes. SMH.

Caveat: I am not able to comment on lower round depth in the draft knowledgeably - I dont have the bandwidth to do that deep of a dive - though I am enamored by individual prospects like Cameron Sample. So my arguments and counter arguments relate to first round type talent only. Counter arguments: Not clear to me how Najee Harris and Travis Etienne are a significant drop off from draft time Leonard Fournettes, Saquan Barkleys or Ezekiel Elliotts. Similarly, Penei Sewell and Rashawn slater could be the top tackles taken any draft year. Lawrence is arguably better than even Luck, who was a once in 10 years type QB. Fields / Lance / Wilson would be comparable to Winston / Mariota or Wentz / Goff, no? Surtain / Horn / Fairley are likely better than Okudah / Henderson. And Kyle Pitts is better at this time than Hockenson / Fant and Waddle / Chase / Smith compare favorably to last year's "great" WR class. That being said, every draft has different strengths and weaknesses. One can make the argument that Edge Rushers and Defensive Tackles will not be well represented at the top of the draft. There is no Myles Garrett / Bosa / Chubb / Young type rusher but I submit that it is partially due to the top guys opting out of the college football season. I think Twyman, Rousseau, Parsons etc. have all suffered due to the opt outs. So I submit that the jury is still out on these guys. FWIW, I want us to get Gregory Rousseau, by trading up, if necessary. As Bills fans, we will be biased. We have been picking in the top 15 forever - I submit that picks lower then 15 will appear underwhelming to us relative to prior years. And I freakin "Digg" it! I hope we have this problem every year.

Would be a great pickup for less than 5-6 mill per year!! He is a great run stuffer and adequate in pass rush settings as well. What is there not to like? In previous years, 12 mill would be a reasonable cost to have him.

Methinks OP has a point and folks should not be so quick to vilify him/her. There is no doubt we are super happy with Beane overall. That said, his draftees on defense still have something to prove. Let us hope that Oliver and Epenesa and Edmunds will start playing upto their potential and Beane will have the last laugh.

Beane's strategy in FA this season for other team's players - wait for every team to sign players for $$$ - and then offer the minimum to whoever is left. So, Houston and Ingram are still left in the Edge market.

Incomplete List buddy! Missing Caleb Farley, Najee Harris, Asante Samuel and at least one of Gregory Rousseau, Kwity Paye or Jaelen Phillips, no? Edit: My bad, I missed that this was the TSW Mock vote. Still missing Asante Samuel or did he get picked?

Live this (potential) move. More than an adequate replacement for Kroft and his one great advantage over Kroft is that he is not injury prone. Get it done now Beane!! I suspect his price might go up after the draft. This is a position of need for us. Brilliant!! We already have the lamp and now hoping for the other two.

Not the Hail Mary pls - that one game may have cost us a #1 seed. Ofc nothing is certain - but I woulda felt good about our chances down the stretch - at least woulda put some pressure on KC.

His testing is off the charts - but he had zero sacks last year. Sacks are not the end all, but zero? I am old school and always put greater weight on performance on the field. Zero sacks in seven games against college OLs for a first round edge rusher - something is not right, no?

Yolo, Ideally I want more seasoning too. So I dont disagree with you. But there is a tradeoff - ceiling or floor no? If the player had both (like Chase Young), he wouldnt be available at #30, no? At this point, I want the ceiling. I want the player picked to be a potential upgrade over what we have and not another decent but not great addition. If you go for a more seasoned (safer) player with a higher floor, you give up on the ceiling. Typically these players are the ones with more divergent ratings (higher standard deviation). Go for Rousseau!!

He did have a turbulent offseason last year. That being said, he played out of position a fair bit because of Star's opt out. Together, they make his 2021 performance potentially tantalizing. So I agree with him being on the list. Another quality Dlineman from the draft should only improve Oliver's performance.

Nice job OP! There is a consensus top 9, top 12, top 17, top 21 and top 30! I thought Jaycee Horn would go higher - that was the big surprise to me. Mac Jones will go higher obviously. Greg Rousseau is falling - and I think that might be one opportunity to get a game changer. The 2019 tape doesnt lie. Dont let the pro-day numbers fool ya, especially this year.

I hope he does! I fervently hope he does!!

This is a bigger loss than you guys appear to think. We dont have an adequate backup for either Dr. Poyer or My. Hyde. Beane shd seriously consider Malik Hooker!

FIXED IT FOR YA!😀

In the 2017 draft, I thought he was one of the "cant miss" prospects. But injuries are a bi*ch and Hooker has missed 28 games in 4 seasons - but when on the field, he has been quite stellar. Despite missing a couple of games in the 2019 season, he made the PFF "All Clutch" team recording a bunch of INTs and fumbles in the 4th quarter of one score games. He is still unsigned. There are two possible reasons (non-mutually exclusive) for that - He has not yet fully recovered from his achilles injury and teams are wary of offering him a contract. His demands are higher than teams' willingness to pay him. Does anyone know which is the primary reason. Why is it "all quiet on the Hooker front"? I would like the Bills to take a flyer on him if it is the former (he can help us late next season when he recovers fully). Especially if Marlowe bolts.