IgotBILLStopay

Yup - that is perfectly consistent with one of the scenarios outlined in the OP. Gettleman has never traded down before. But comfort with Beane and last year's criticism for not trading down and still landing Saquon Barkley might make him more open to a trade down this year. If a trade with Giants can happen, we may even have a shot at Quinnen Williams.

Ed Oliver

Clearly any number of scenarios can play out by the time we get to 9. I wanted to put all the info (needs, rumors, contacts etc.) about each of the top 8 picks that is available out there and see what that means for the Bills picks. Some of the info is already on this forum spread across different threads but some of it is new and, at least to me, it makes sense processing this in a holistic fashion. Pick 1: Cards Kyler Murray Post Free Agency Team Needs: QB?, DT, WR, S Klingsbury has been in love with Kyler Murray for a long time and is on record that he would take him #1. So, it is a no-brainer that Kyler Murray has been consistently mocked to the Cards over the past month. However, not making any overt moves regarding Rosen appears to have lessened the odds in favor of Murray to the Cards. I suspect this silence (reminiscent of Dorsey last year with the Mayfield pick) is primarily to see if they could move lower down and still get Murray while picking up draft assets. However, given their interest in Murray has been well chronicled, at this point the bigger surprise will be if they do not pick Murray. Also, if they really do want Murray, given the news that the #3 pick is for sale by the Jets, they cannot really move below 2 to guarantee Murray. If they do not pick Murray, the Raiders are the only team needing a QB with enough assets this year to move up and get Murray. In other words, even if the Cards do not want Murray and the Raiders want him, Murray will go #1 after a trade with the Raiders. Pick 2: 49ers Nick Bosa Post Free Agency Team Needs: S, C, DE, P 49ers have been linked to only 2 players throughout this entire pre-draft period: Bosa and Q. Williams. 49ers play a 4-3 defense and both are natural fits on its DL. However, DeForest Buckner has been a stud at RDT and Arik Armstead (former first round pick) had his best year in 2018 after missing significant time in 2016 and 2017 due to injuries. They did pick up Dee Ford at RDE in Free Agency. However, Solomon Thomas has been a big let-down despite being the third overall pick in 2017. This makes me think that DE is a bigger need for them and they are probably going with Bosa. I must add that Q. Williams can probably play the 5-tech DE as good as anybody coming out – so there is still a chance the 49ers select him over Bosa.Also, they too have been mentioned as potential trade targets for teams wanting to move up – but I suspect the cost involved for a non-top 5 team to move up will be very high. Pick 3: Jets Josh Allen Post Free Agency Team Needs: C, DE, T, CB Jets pick has been widely rumored to be for sale. If Kyler Murray is available, all bets are off and Jets might make out like bandits. But I do not consider that very likely. There are some rumblings that Washington and NYG want to trade up to get Daniel Jones (or Haskins) here, but I suspect the cost for the latter might be too high and the critical position is probably #5 (the pick before the Giants). Jets already have a nice 3-tech DT in Leonard Williams. After their past failures with two pass-rushing DTS (Sheldon Richardson and L. Williams), they should be wary of doing the same by pairing Q. Williams with L. Williams. That said, there have been some rumblings about Gregg Williams (their DC) being infatuated with Ed Oliver. However, given their needs at Edge and given there is a stud available here in Josh Allen who can play the Edge in both a 4-3 and a 3-4, I suspect they go with him here. If they choose to go DT, there appears to be a better chance of Oliver here rather than Q. Williams. Pick 4: Raiders Devin White / Quinnen Williams Post Free Agency Team Needs: DE, LB, CB, RB, TE If Bosa or Allen were available here, Mayock will likely just pounce on him. They have Hurst and Hall at DT. And these two were more than adequate last year. Most mocks the past month had Q. Williams going here although recently, there have been some rumblings of a surprise pick here. I think this is where the real draft intrigue starts. Mayock is a rookie GM and Gruden has never been shy about going against conventional thinking. One possible surprise pick is Devin White. They have a need at LB, White is the Butkus award winner and this year the dropoff at LB after the top 2 is significant unlike at DT and DE. Rapoport, Mcshay, Gehlken and Breer have all changed their Raiders pick from Q. Williams to D. White. The two other surprise picks are a QB and a DE. At the Senior Bowl, Gruden coached both Drew Lock and Daniel Jones and reportedly fell in love with one of them depending on which report we would like to believe. He also coached against Montez Sweat. Given how dominant Montez Sweat was there and how he destroyed the combine, I think there is also a small chance of Sweat going here given the Raiders acute needs at Edge. Pick 5 Bucs Traded to WAS. WAS picks Dwayne Haskins Pick 5 If No Trade Devin White Bucs Post Free Agency Team Needs: LB, T, CB, S, RB, K Redskins Post Free Agency Team Needs: QB enough said Bucs have hired Todd Bowles and will move to 3-4 defense for sure. They have Vita Vea at NT and he performed at a reasonably high level after a slow start before his injury. Also he is probably a better fit at 3-4 than Q. Williams or Ed Oliver. Arians mentioned yesterday that there are 6 generational talents in this year’s draft – I am going to assume 5 of them are Q. Williams, Ed Oliver, Bosa, Josh Allen and Devin White. The 6th one is a mystery, but I suspect it to be Montez Sweat. Montez Sweat destroyed the combine and the Senior Bowl. Also Tampa Bay has inside information on Montez Sweat (TB’s strength and conditioning coaches all moved there this year from Mississippi State and know the ins and outs of Sweat’s medical issues). I think the recent news (misinfo?) regarding Sweat’s heart plays into their hands perfectly. Given the high probability that teams are going to shy away from Sweat and given the inside info they have (like the Cowboys had with Jaylon Smith 2 years ago), I think they are willing to trade with Washington and roll the dice on Sweat being available at #14. There are differing reports out there about the Redskins liking Daniel Jones or Dwayne Haskins. Both visited them just last week. There are more murmurs regarding Haskins than Jones – so I am going with that. Pick 6: Giants Quinnen Williams / Devin White / Ed Oliver / Daniel Jones Post Free Agency Team Needs: QB, T, DT, LB, DE, WR Giants have holes everywhere. Gettleman has never traded down in his life. He is on record just last week as saying one should not reach for a QB and that a team needs a defensive leader. That makes me think he is going Defense first. I suspect it will be Q. Williams if he is still there and if not, it will be Devin White to get a Keuchly type defensive leader. If Devin White is also gone, then he might go Ed Oliver here. There is also a small chance that given two QBs are already gone and several QB hungry teams come before #17, he might go Daniel Jones here. Pick 7: If no trade Jags Jawaan Taylor / Jonah Williams / Cody Ford If trade, Jags trade pick to Falcons or Bills who take Ed Oliver or Quinnen Williams here Post Free Agency Team Needs: Jags OL, WR, RB, CB Post Free Agency Team Needs: Falcons DT, DE, CB, K Post Free Agency Team Needs: Bills DT, OL, DE, TE Jags have an excellent DL. But their OL is in shambles. They need serious upgrades there to protect their investment in Foles (who is a pure pocket passer). They have been linked to Jawaan Taylor completely and save a trade will probably go OL here even if Quinnen Williams were available here. Given the three nice options they have on the OL, I suspect they are also a good candidate for Falcons or the Bills to trade up here and take a DT. Pick 8: Lions Pick Devin White / Devin Bush / TJ Hockenson Post Free Agency Team Needs: LB, TE, WR, QB (long term) Matt Patricia adopts a multiple defense from a base 3-4 package (similar to what Rex used to run for us). The Lions defnse switched from a 4-3 last year – that 4-3 had enjoyed quite some success with Ansah, Suh etc. But last year they started horribly with a blowout loss to the Jets. But the mid-season pick up of Damon Harrison completely changed their Defense. Damon Harrison is the archetypal 3-4 NT and there is NO WAY the Lions pick a DT here (several of the national mocksters are mocking Oliver to them but I do not think that will happen). Patricia knows that the weak link last year was the LB corps. Given the steep drop off in LB talent and their acute need, I do not think they will agree to a trade and will likely go LB here. Devin Bush was neck and neck with Devin White at the combine and Mel Kiper laso has put him in as a 10th overall prospect. Besides Defense, the Lions have also been linked to Hockenson and Fant at the TE spot. Being from NE, he understands the value of a Gronk – so there is a good chance Lions go Hock here. Where does that leave us? Our needs are DT, OL, DE and TE (I do not think WR is such an acute need after spending all those dollars in FA). At DT, it appears more and more likely that Ed Oliver is going to be there. The only way he will not be there is if only one QB is taken in the top 8 AND the Falcons are willing to trade up to take Oliver. In such a case, Bills can still have the inside track to trade with the Jags since they have the higher pick and can pretty much guarantee Jags will have their pick of Olinemen. There is also an outised chance of Q. Williams being available. The draft order is set in such a way that right now the only teams picking ahead of us that really need Q. Williams are the Giants at #6. Even the Raiders are not badly off at DT. If the Giants go QB at #6 (that makes 3 QBs taken in the top 6), then Q. Williams can drop to 7 and chances are the Bills or the Falcons will grab him there. Then the Bills have the pleasant option of even fielding trade down offers. I am convinced Bills will likely trade down only if a QB run happens. There is a small chance Bills trade down with the Falcons – but given our needs are similar, I doubt it. In case only one QB is taken in the top 8 (Q. Williams is gone) AND the Falcons trade up to take Oliver, then the Bills options at #9 will likely be TJ Hockenson, Jawaan Taylor Cody Ford or Jonah Williams. I doubt if the Bills will really trade down since only one QB had gone in the top 8 – so trade up demand will be weak. Bottomline: I estimate our #9 pick will lead to the following possibilities (with chances in parentheses): Ed Oliver (trade up or at #9) 60% Quinnen Williams (trade up) 10% Taylor / Ford / Williams 10% Trade Down 10% TJ Hockenson 5% Others (Montez Sweat / Rashan Gary / Burns / Wilkins) 5%

Wonderful question. Never thought of that possibility.

Also Ravens cap situation is not stellar for 2019. I doubt if they can pay Ansah 10 mill per year - so Ansah's Ravens visit might mean his value is even less than 9 mill per year. Or Ravens might be willing to structure the contract so the big cap hit is next year. Even so, cannot imagine a 14 mill per deal with a less than 10 mill cap hit this year - since he will have not have a contract longer than 3 years.

I agree that 14 mill is too high for Ansah. I was thinking 3 yr 27 mill with 15 mill guaranteed if he is given a clean bill of health.

Ed Oliver Dru Samia

If memory serves me right, just prior to the 2017 draft, the analysts were pretty underwhelmed by Trubisky, Mahomes and Watson as well and did not expect 3 in top 12.

I have been sold on Q. WIlliams longer than most (since his LSU game) and think he is the best player in the draft - but even I wouldnt give up next year's first rounder to get him.

If there is a surprise, it will be Daniel Jones, Drew Lock or Devin White at #4. I doubt a trade for Kyler is happening.

I think Hock is going to the Lions. Lotsa smoke there. The good news is that if the Jags go Jawaan Taylor as widely expected, Oliver (Q. Williams - small chance) shd be available at 9.

Possible. But what if the Cards don’t play along? It takes two to tango.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2019-nfl-draft-rumors-raiders-reportedly-planning-to-make-a-surprising-pick-at-no-4/amp/ Raiders planning a surprise pick according to this CBSSPORTS reporter’s sources within the team. Methinks Drew Lock or Daniel Jones Is in play.

Cmon. Would the Cards let other teams know they are open to trading Rosen if they are not committed to Murray? This appears to be just posturing to see if another team likes Bosa enough to jump over the 49ers. Murray is going 1.otherwise the Cardinals front office deserves a statue from the Academy.

Wunovich himself has credited the attention paid to Rashan Gary for the productivity. It fell precipitously without Gary. I would pass in round 2.

The consequences of a Dlineman win vs. Olineman win are very asymmetric. It only takes one bad play by the Olineman to send the QB to the hospital. That said, I do like Jonah Williams. He is one of the top 3 Olinemen in the draft. Just that I would prefer Jawaan Taylor or a Cody Ford over him.

There is only one black mark against Jonah Williams. Clelin Ferrell appeared to schooled him in the national championship game.

He would not have been allowed to complete the drills at the combine if his heart condition was bad. This is just someone trying to sabotage Sweat. If he falls out of the first round, some team is gonna have a steal.

not in first three rounds. but I agree we need depth.

oops my bad. sry.

9 and a third wont even get us to #5, let alone #3, mate.

Two implications for the Bills - One, it makes trade up a little less costly since it will be a little bit of a buyer's market. Two, chances are a team trading up will do so for a QB or for a shot at Bosa / Q. Williams. The earlier Williams goes off the board the less chance Ed Oliver is available at 9.

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/raiders/nfl-rumors-jets-determined-trade-down-no-3-pick-draft

2nd bold prediction: Tyree Jackson will go much earlier than mock drafts project him. Probably early Day 2 pick - but would not be surprised if he goes late in the first as well. Teams appear to be drooling over Josh Allen comparisons.

There are two drafting philosophies depending on whether it is the coach or the GM running the draft. A GM controlled system will have more prospects on the Draft Board since the GMs are not wedded to a particular scheme. The old Dick Steinberg system would rarely have less than 250 players on a team's draft board. However a coach controlled system will not waste time on misfits for the coach's scheme. That would typically be smaller. I am guessing since McD is not going anywhere, Beane has the luxury of going with a smaller draft board. You are right about the Pats historically having small Draft Boards. This is because Belichik did everything and did not have time to waste on scheme misfits. But success is a B*tch. Even they have changed now and have a much bigger board. Part of the problem was that, in this copy cat league, all the guys who had worked with Belichik started looking for the same traits. I remember reading a few years ago that the Pats board with about 100 names was down to 4 guys left before the 5th round started. That is the risk you run with smaller draft boards. With the Pegulas not really being tight-fisted, I would have expected Beane to cast a wider net. That said, he does have a good track record of unearthing nuggets (that others dont see) even with his smaller board - Wallace / Foster / Teller. So maybe it works for him. Additionally, we are in the third year with the defensive scheme and 2nd year with the offensive scheme. So there is coaching stability. Bottomline, I can rationalize why Beane would be comfortable with a smaller draft board.