It only takes one team to take him in the top 8 for him not to be there.
That said, if Kyler Murray goes #1 and one other team - Giants or Redskins - take a QB, barring another team trading up and willing to pay more than the Bills, Ed Oliver will be there.
I estimate the probability of (Kyler Murray not going at 1 AND less than two QBs in the top 8 AND a team like Falcons beating our trade up offer) at less than 50%.