IgotBILLStopay

I like Dawkins attitude. If he does win the starting job and Ford wins his on the other side, Nsekhe can serve capably as the backup LT and Ladrian Waddle (whose wife has fully embraced the Bills Mafia) can serve as the backup RT. We do not even need a swing tackle.

Based on TBD calendar I assumed it was 5/3-6 But if Yolo says 5/10, I think one shd go with what he says

And Murphy might also make the roster for ST.

How about Brawniest Player Available?

Did he get it from McD??

I thought Metcalf was BPA:)

They do look good on paper. The key will be the chemistry they develop. More than any other position group, the Oline needs to work together since one weak link can spoil all the hard work.

Umm you say Magnificent Seven, but I count 8:) we have two Phillipses:) Edit: Ugh ignore - you didnt include Lorax in front 7. My bad. Maybe it will become 8 with Ansah / Clowney:)

Dont be so harsh on Singletary. I was also surprised at the pick initially (thought we were going TE) but now I believe we are onto something great with Singletary. The Ant-Man is so damn elusive. The one TC battle I want to see is Joseph going against Singletary. One is superfast and another super elusive. Who will win? More importantly, it will be iron sharpening iron!

Here is what Brandon Beane had to say about Oliver falling to us: https://expo.newyorkupstate.com/sports/g66l-2019/04/8245878c04d84/buffalo-bills-gm-brandon-beane-on-why-he-drafted-ed-oliver.html "No one Trades up" plus "more than one QB drafted before us" we get the player we want (Oliver!). Beane's pre-draft scenarios / conclusions were similar to ours!!

This. https://billswire.usatoday.com/2019/04/29/remember-duke-williams-after-buffalo-bills-dont-add-wr-2019-nfl-draft-brandon-beane-sean-mcdermott/ Much has been made of how we have a bunch of No. 2s and No. 3s but no No. 1. Among all the receivers we have, Duke is the one with the tools to be a No. 1. He is big, can run fast, get separation, has good hands, has a large catch radius and always high points the ball. It might be a bit of a stretch to call him a potential No. 1 when he is, at best, #5 on the depth chart right now - but damn am I excited to see what he brings to the table.

A bit harsh there. Everyone has opinions. Didnt Beane just say (on WGR radio) that Sills should have been drafted over a bunch of WRs that were actually drafted. Or Tyree Jackson. We are not asking him to send letters to all those teams saying they were incompetent. The whole fun of being on this forum is that we can second guess picks and offer our opinions, no? FWIW, I made it clear with "IMO" that what I said was opinion, not fact.

Greg Little played LT exclusively I think whereas Ford played RT. Just different needs for Carolina and us - which helped.

It came as a surprise to the Bills. But fortunately they went with a "different Tackle" (Little) rather than Ford. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2019/4/29/18522327/2019-nfl-draft-brandon-beane-says-cody-ford-will-begin-buffalo-bills-career-at-right-tackle

Ah here is the link: https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/12/27/18155883/all-22-analysis-where-was-star-lotulelei-run-stuffing-defensive-tackle-vs-new-england-patriots Notice how few of the runs are to the inside. If anything a case can be made that Star needed to be in on more than 47% of the snaps - so maybe OP is correct in an unintended way:)

I think we should blame the LBs a bit more for the poor run defense. I dont have the link, but a while ago I posted how most of the big run gains happened away from Star. And Kyle, bless his heart, was never the best run defender around. That said, let us see how the run defense does with Oliver in there. Hopefully Star will do enough to satisfy us all (in terms of Wins).

Notwithstanding the reason for the fall from mythical Top 10 status, IMO he (and AJ Brown) did deserve to go before #40. Seattle got huge value picking him at #64. He would be especially useful on improvisational plays (where a QB is scrambling) where his lack of route running polish will get hidden and he can showcase his superior athleticism and catch radius. I think he is great for Russell Wilson (and would have been great for JA too). Would have been fun to have seen Metcalf fall to #74 just to see what the Beaneman thinks of him.

I read that Seattle is also talking to him. Will come down to us vs Seahawks I think. Ravens and Saints appear to be out.

As the poster above said, Non-skill ST shd be better with Roberts alone. Also, I expect Joseph to contribute instantly on ST. Mo Alexander is also someone to watch out for. The only punter who was injured last year was Bojo (shoulder). Don’t remember who else sorry.

Safety and LB are also similar, though I believe Joseph can be better than Humber. But otherwise, your assessment is spot on. QB is an improvement as well since Allen was not the starter for the 2018 opening roster.

Clearly without the deadcap overhang, aggressive FA signing and stellar draft, we are loads better. Here was our opening roster in 2018 (only had 52 players - then we added one other - I forgot who) QB (2): Nate Peterman, Josh Allen RB (5): LeSean McCoy, Chris Ivory, Marcus Murphy, Taiwan Jones, Patrick DiMarco WR (6): Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones, Andre Holmes, Jeremy Kerley, Ray-Ray McCloud, Robert Foster TE (4): Charles Clay, Jason Croom, Logan Thomas, Khari Lee OL (9): Dion Dawkins, Jordan Mills, Marshall Newhouse, Conor McDermott, John Miller, Vladimir Ducasse, Wyatt Teller, Russell Bodine, Ryan Groy DE (4): Jerry Hughes, Trent Murphy, Shaq Lawson, Eddie Yarbrough DT (4): Kyle Williams, Star Lotulelei, Harrison Phillips, Adolphus Washington LB (6): Lorenzo Alexander, Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano, Julian Stanford, Ramon Humber, Deon Lacey CB (5): Tre’Davious White, Vontae Davis, Phillip Gaines, Taron Johnson, Lafayette Pitts S (4): Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Rafael Bush, Siran Neal ST (3): Stephen Hauschka, Colton Schmidt, Reid Ferguson Here is A very early 53 for 2019 (there will be 3-4 changes to this based on preferences, TC / injuries etc. - but about 49 of 53 should likely go through) - new ones for this season are bolded QB (3): Allen, Barkley, Jackson or Anderson RB (5): McCoy, Gore, Yeldon, Singletary, Murphy WR (7): Brown, Foster, Jones, Beasley, D. Williams, McKenzie, Roberts TE (3): Kroft, Knox, Croom OL (9): Morse, Ford, Dawkins, Nsekhe, Long, Spain, Teller, Feliciano, Waddle DE (4): Murphy, Lawson, Hughes, Yarbrough or D. Johnson DL (4): Phillips, Phillips, Oliver, Lotuleilei LB (6): Edmunds, Milano, Stanford, Joseph, Lorax, Lacey CB (5): T. White, K. Johnson, T. Johnson, L. Wallace, EJ Gaines S (4): Hyde, Poyer, Neal, Bush ST (3): Bojorquez (P), Haushka (K), Ferguson (LS) OL, RB and WR revamped. Am ready to go to war with that Offense roster unless a Julio Jones or someone like that emerges as a trade option. Defense (except Oliver and K. Johnson) remarkably similar to last year - so continuity will help us. The one area where we still need an upgrade is DE (am not fully sold on Lawson / Murphy / Yarbrough though Hughes remains a stud) hopefully 30 mill in cap room will go towards upgrading here. Possibilities: 1. A trade (Clowney?) Texans are shopping Clowney, but we should be interested only if he will agree to about 40-45 mill guaranteed (not Clark 63.5 m type money). 2. Post-draft potential cuts / trades to keep an eye on are Calais Campbell (Drafting Josh Allen makes parting with Campbell easier since cutting him saves the Jags 9.5 mill cap space - their cap situation is not fantastic and more likely, they can trade him - that will also save them 9.5 million and give them some compensation). Solomon Thomas (Drafting Bosa makes Thomas expendable). 3. Signing Ziggy Ansah

The point of the probabilistic exercise is how many places / paths have the guy you want going before 9 (Ed Oliver), not how many you mock to each team as your best guess. A single mock only offers one path to 9. That said, I am pretty kicked I had Hockenson to Detroit, White to TB and Jones to Giants as reasonably probable outcomes in my tree. Josh Allen going to Jags instead of the Raiders / Jets did not really affect our chances to get Oliver since he was going top 8 anyway and the Jags were not going to take Oliver. The Giants were the critical team: If they had not gone QB, that would have affected chances of Oliver being there (That is why I said we needed no trade up AND at least 2 QBs in the first 8 for Oliver to be there). Even if the Giants had not gone QB, there was a chance they would have picked Devin White so long as Washington had traded with the Bucs for #5 and taken Haskins as was rumored. Even in such a scenario Oliver would have fallen to us.

Why would the Jags ever draft Ed Oliver? They just drafted Taven Bryan in the first round last year. If you had followed their games last year, they gave Malik Jackson's snaps to Taven Bryan in the last 4 games. They are excited about Bryan as the 3-tech (Ed Oliver's position) and want to see more of him there. That is why they were comfortable moving on from Malik Jackson. If Raiders take Josh Allen, there was a good chance Jags were going Jawaan Taylor - so even then Oliver falls to us. Alternatively, Steelers might have traded with Jags to get Devin Bush. Heck, even we might have traded up to get Oliver. If you draw basic decision trees, you will see that chances remain high that we get Ed Oliver regardless of whether Raiders take Clelin Ferrell or Josh Allen. That is the point.

Again you are missing the point. As I said, the draft set up perfectly for the Bills since very few teams needed DTs. Only 3 of the top 8 teams (Cards, Jets, Jags) went BPA inspite of need. In your mind these are ridiculous picks. But when you are projecting who will be available, you have to assess the chance that GMs will make those picks. Those GMs have an existing roster to add to and they have needs. Hock to Detroit and Jones / Haskins to Giants always had significant chances.

Good post. I felt after the Positive experience with JA, Tyree will get drafted in Round 3. That said Allen’s final year stats are skewed by drops. Not sure about Tyree’s. Also Allen has a pocket presence that cannot be taught.