IgotBILLStopay

Bills rank 2nd in the AFC in the Win-Loss Column - To me that is the most important category:)

I think we are just fine with Barkley as a backup. Now if, god forbid, there is an injury to the top 2, I'd be happy looking at Mariota. He is pretty good but his OL does him no favors.

A different perspective on Cody Ford: https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/1837179 At least some outsider think Cody Ford is OK. Take that, Bembridge Scholars! That being said, as a rookie Olineman, there will be some technique issues for sure. There were also some lateral quickness issues in pass protection. That is why is good at run blocking / playing inside since lateral quickness is less important for a guard. But with my rose tinted glasses, I think he can be OK and I can live with him allowing a sack a game so long as Allen does not get hurt and we win.

We kinda diminished Sammy's trade value by not picking up the option. The option was 1 year for 11 million and he ended up signing a 3 yr 48 million deal. I am not unhappy with the Sammy trade - I think we got fair value given he was bound for a year less. That being said, a small part of me would have liked to have seen Sammy instead of a hobbled Matthews on that team. We made the playoffs with the latter 2 plus Kelvin Benjamin who was acquired for a 3rd rounder. McD and Beane always had a dismantle the previous team and stockpile picks to land a franchise QB plan. However, they themselves were surprised by how competitive the 2017 team turned out to be (hence the mid season trade for KB). I think Beane has been on record saying McD spoiled all his plans by making the playoffs - necessitating the use of all that draft capital to move up for Allen and Edmunds.

Oh, I am not a Whaley basher at all. Far from it. Just recently, on another thread, I was saying that maybe Whaley's Lawson pick wasnt too bad. Hyde, Poyer, Tre were all pre-Beane additions to our roster and mentally, I had been giving both Whaley and McD joint credit for those additions. From OP's article, the Hyde find appears to be solely a result of McD's "scouting" and the Poyer addition was due to Babich / McD. Thus, my own priors about who deserves credit for the roster additions were updated. Hence the post.

That article makes clear it was McD and not Whaley calling the shots. He gets credit for getting the most out of his defense but IMO doesn’t get enough credit for picking the defensive players to fit his system. Hyde, Porter, Tre, Wallace, Tremaine, Milano, Phillipses etc. have all worked out swimmingly. Yes the Zay pick and not picking up Sammy’s option were small misses - but overall the record of unearthing diamonds in the rough has been fantastic.

I agree about the endogeneity underlying luck and subsequent play calling while attributing a result to luck. It is only the last play where if a lucky thing happens that decides the game, one can solely attribute the result to luck. Hence the saying "we make our own luck".

Agree with everything except the Jets and the Dolphins. They are both outa playoff contention and a win hurts their draft position. So wouldn’t mind Jets and Dolphins wins this week.

You may run on the Bills but you can't Hyde!! But seriously Poyer is not too bad himself. Add TW and LW and you get the Best Secondary in da whole da*n league!!

If one just looks at the number of sacks - it appears the OL had a bad day. Actually, Allen had all day to throw except when he failed to pick up the blitzer. May have been the O-Line's best performance this season. D-Line was, of course, pretty good as usual.

I liked that interview. I still hate his stupid false start penalties - but can see why the coaches want him around. He has fully embraced the process and appears to be a glue guy. At least it explains why he is still around the team (and he is the team's 3rd string Tackle). And he appears to be the recipient of JA's first touch pass touchdown (maybe there was another last season - but cant think of one).

Biggest positive surprises - 1. 49ers, 2. Lions, 3. Colts, 4. Raiders, 5. Jaguars (with Minshew), 6. Panthers Biggest negative surprises - 1. Browns, 2. Jets, 3. Chargers, 4. Steelers (even without Big Ben), 5. Falcons Emerging QBs: Jones, Minshew, K. Allen, maybe Rudolph Emerging RBs: Austin Ekeler, Matt Breida, Rasheem Mostert, Devin Singletary Emerging WRs: Courtland Sutton, Terry McLaurin, hopefully Duke Williams

I don't know the stats but what you say is logical. That being said it appears the Titans want to keep Conklin and the Seahawks plan to keep Ifedi despite declining their options. These two are just from Shaq's own draft class.

I would like keep both Jordan Phillips and Lawson - they complement each other so well. I don't have the stats but it appears each does better when the other is beside him.

The real revelation on defense this season IMO has been Shaq Lawson. I will wait for the All 22 and PFF stats but he appears to be winning a bunch of his matchups. That makes the rest of the D line better. Maybe just maybe Whaley did get one right and Beane shd seriously consider keeping SL in a Bills uniform long term.

Just for ya Yolo - I will take a shot at rationalizing Vrabel's decision to try a 53 yard FG on a 4th and 4 and it mostly has to do with perceived probabilities (analytics) 1. Low probability of a conversion on a 4th and 4 against the dominant Bills defense 2. Santos had been more than a capable substitute for Succop the past few games and knowing his kicker - he thought 53 yards was well within his range - he was 8-15 on kicks 50 yards or more before yesterday (so he felt, the kicker's past three misses notwithstanding there was a good chance of a conversion) 3. There was still a lot of time left - so the Titans would be down one score even if the Bills get a FG (if Santos makes the 53 yarder). Just think that on the final drive Allen does not covert the 3rd and 3. Bills would have kicked a FG and still been only up one score. All these analytics defy conventional thinking and take emotion out of decision making - conventionally we are used to thinking kicker is struggling - take it out of his hands (or leg). But if Vrabel and /or his analytics team felt the probability of 2. was significantly higher than 1., then a FG try decision can appeal to him. Please note that this is not to say I agree with Vrabel's decision making- just trying to answer your question in the OP. In the recent Tulane Army game Army was down 3 scores and when they scored a TD went for 2 pt conversion which came back to bite em since they missed. despite scoring a second time and having the ball a third time (and time left on clock for one possession) the game was lost since it was still a two possession game. The coach was heavily criticized for the decision to go for 2. But if analytics tell you going for 2 is the best chancel for winning - you take it.

Maybe he has Adam Gase pictures too:)

I hope you are right. He committed multiple false start penalties which were drive killers. Him being a mean **** has nothing to do with false starts. If Cody Ford cannot handle Brent Urban of the Titans one on one, he does not belong as a starter - his draft status notwithstanding. FWIW, I think Ford will be fine vs. Urban.

Maybe, just maybe, a Trent Williams trade is round the corner.

No way would I want Lee Smith coming anywhere near the field man! He exceeded his quota of penalties for the season in one game vs. the Pats.

A 16-10 game where the losing team had a zillion turnovers. Yes the blocked punt was good coaching and targeting Tre White on his first play back was nice - but I doubt if this game tape will ever be used to showcase how great Belichik is. If anything, our halftime adjustments were better than the Pats'. Also, I think his comments that he would not coach Jones any differently w.r.t to the Allen hit were in extremely poor taste.

Yet another Smurf. Do McBeane have a Napolean Complex?

Very nice writeup. Adding my thoughts: 1. Frank Gore man! He kept us in that game. 2. OK JA messed up on the INTs- but his non-Gore supporting cast did him no favors. More than the passing miscues, the thing I will be hard on JA is the sacks he took. Three of them when Bills were in FG range. One did not matter, but the other two led to a punt and missed FG. These were bonehead plays and shows he was rattled by the Pats defense. But no cause for alarm - he will learn from this. But he did let one get away there. And make no mistake, much as I like Barkley, he is just not in the same caliber as JA. We just gotta roll with JA as he matures. But Barkley shd be adequate against the next few opponents if JA has to sit. 3. That hit: You cant tell me that a teeny turn of Jones' head means he is trying avoid a helmet to helmet. Ya gotta kick him out. If the league puts the onus on the defender to avoid the helmet to helmet especially when the offensive skill player is defenseless and being tackled by another defender. Al Riveron trying to justify the hit as "not rising to a level of an ejection" is garbage and makes the NFL's claim about making the game safer a load of bull crap. 4. Coaching: There were a bunch of miscues - blocked punt, calls on 1st and goal etc. but do want to give them credit for 2 things - a. brilliant defensive game plan - rarely do you see a QB so uncomfortable and yet have no sacks. and b. halftime adjustments on offense - involving TJ Yeldon was brilliant 5. Man, that defense again - Levi Wallace was flying, Milano was everywhere, Edmunds was rocking - cant find anything to complain except that Tre PI penalty, where it was his first play returning and Belicheat was smart to target him. If the only thing on defense that we can complain about was a Tre White play, I think the defense is in great shape. A great defensive gameplan only looks good if the players execute. 6. OK Zay Jones, Patrick DiMarco and Lee Smith have no business being on the field. Enough has been said about Zay's inability or unwillingness to jump, run or catch, but if you dont even make an effort - I doubt it can ever be taught. DiMarco - I have heard so much about how he is an extension of the coach in the locker room - but hell, then hire him as an assistant and let the guys who can perform on the field stay on the roster. And Lee Smith, I know he is a veteran, but his stupid penalties were drive killers for us. And he is taking time away from Dawson Knox and Sweeney. 7. Was also a teensy bit disappointed in Haushka. That kick from 49 yards out was not really unmakeable and may have been the difference between a W and an L.

Silver lining: McD and Frazier have bottled up Brady plus Edelman before. They will be prepared. I was a lil worried what new wrinkle Belicheat would bring w/o Edelman- now that is less likely

It doesn't break the season but will certainly make it.