IgotBILLStopay

1. I was trying to stack the deck in favor of the kicking decision - so the assumed probabilities are conservative. As pointed out by HaplessBillsFan earlier, the fail percentage on the 53 yarder is likely greater than 70%. That will make the difference even larger. 2. Dont sneer at 11% my friend - coaches will die for an ex-ante one-play 11% increase in win probability. Capable? Yes. Probable? No.

Successful conversrion of 4th and 4, we are at the 30 yard line with a 1st and 10. The average NFL chance of getting another first down after a 1st and 10 is 66% (read there - I am sure google can provide those). Let us start with 55% for us to move into the red zone (I am ignoring that we can win by scoring a TD). The chance of a TD with a first and 10 from the redzone is 55% plus. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/closer-look-touchdowns-red-zone 55% times 55% gives you 30 %. But as I said in an earlier post - if you believe the chance of a successful conversion are only 20%, the win probability only drops to 22.08% and is still significantly higher than win probability with kicking a 53 yarder. And if your faith in offense is lower than the above suggested numbers, that will come back to bite you even in the 53 yard attempt part of the decision tree. Thanks for pointing that out. I was giving McD the benefit of doubt there by assuming a 70% fail probability. If the fail probability is greater (and objectively it is), that only makes the decision to kick appear even weirder. Assuming a 90% fail probability makes the win probability just 4.5 percent for the kicking decision.

Ok let us concede this was McD's mindset. Let us say Hauschka makes the FG. How was McD planning to win in OT with that mindset about the offensive pulse. Was he hoping for pick 6 or a turnover and have the defense win it for us?

If you dont have any faith in converting a 4 yard play, why kick a field goal and try to win with that offense in OT? The lower your faith in converting a 4th down - the lower will be your probability of winning in OT even if a FG is successful, no?

According to this post (which uses R), the probability of making a 53 yarder with the game on the line is likely even lower than the assumed 30%. https://blog.revolutionanalytics.com/2013/01/chances-of-making-an-nfl-field-goal.html No one says we cant learn from the experience of our opponents.

All I did was google 4th down and distance success percentage. I guess google still goes to the Minitab blog:)

Fair enough. Would you be comfortable with 20% there? The revised win probability assuming 20% is 22.08%. It is still way higher than kicking a 53 yarder. The basic intuition is that kicking the field goal only ties the game - you have to then win it in OT whereas going for it gives you a chance to either win it outright or attempt a higher probability kick.

(click on the decision tree picture below to view a bigger version of the image) McD admitted that they talked about whether to go for it on 4th and 4 or attempt the 53 yarder. Obviously they decided on the latter. I am revisiting that decision in this post since it appears very strange from a basic analytics perspective. That decision should be made based on 6 probability assumptions. 1. The probability that Hauschka makes the 53 yarder (he had missed his previous 3 from 50+ yards and missed a 34 yarder earlier in the game - but holds the record for consecutive makes of 50+ yards) 2. The probability that the Bills convert a 4th and 4 3. The probability that the Bills score a TD in 15 seconds with a TO after converting the 4th down 4. The probability that the Hauschka makes a shorter field goal after the conversion on 4th and 4 5. The probability that Bills win in OT 6. The Browns with a TimeOut and 22 seconds can get in position for a FG and make it Here are my estimates: 1. 30% 2. 46% (https://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-statistics-game/calculating-the-probability-of-converting-on-4th-down) 3. 30% 4. 70% 5. 50% 6. 10% That puts the win probability at 13.5 % for the 53 yard try vs. 25.3% for going for it). The probability of a successful 53 yarder has to be close to 60% for the Bills to be comfortable going for it even keeping other probabilities same (not a given - if one has a 60% confidence in a Hauschka 53 yarder - the probability of a make from a shorter distance will be much higher than the assumed 70% - that will still suggest going for it on 4th down ). Listen - I continue to believe we lucked out in having a great coach who is able to prepare the players well and motivate them to play for each other. That being said, the decision to kick a 53 yarder appears quite short-sighted. Dont the Bills have a basic analytics guy to advise them?

I am the villain in my house - because I was too critical of the 3rd and 4 playcalling as well as the the decision to go with Haushka 53 yard attempt on the 4th and 4. Apparently, I added immediately after both the 3rd and 4 play and the 4th and 4 decision that it would come back to bite us - and I am blamed for not being "positive" enough.

Good Poll at this time. Deliberately Ignoring the moral questions - Obviously there is no way we pay him 10 million a year. But at this point, even if the NFL clears him, he aint gonna command that. Second, yes the 2020 draft is WR deep - but that is a season away and we are one John Brown injury away from having major question marks regarding the receiver core. We are likely to need WR help rest of this season. Additionally, we have postseason aspirations. Combined with our comfortable cap situation and AB being likely available for a small sum on a 1 year deal, it is such a no-brainer that we pass on him. I did vote yes - but would not lose sleep if we did not get him.

yes and it is not clear that point is ahead of Mayfield's release point

I will go even further. It has to be a millimeter ahead for it to be a forward pass.Parallel is still a lateral.

My first two emotions exactly - but now I have watched many times in slow motion and I cant make out at all that the ball is moving forward. I am now more inclined to believe they shoulda let the call stand.

If it initially moves forward, unless it is a boomerang or it is the wind, it cannot end up backward when Hunt is touching it - which is what appears to happen. The only explanation can be that the camera was moving. It is much better to use the line on the field to make the determination of whether it is moving forward or backward.

yes hunt was ahead of Mayfield. But watch where Mayfield's arm is when he releases the ball and where it lands (behind Hunt) - I dont know if angle is wrong - but the more I look at it - it seems the ball is definitely not going forward ..

I too would like a better explanation. 1. Some facts first: a. Yes the QB's arm was moving forward before he released the ball b. Not sure if the ball is moving forward (so it is different from the Josh Allen sweeps). c. you need irrefutable proof to overturn the call on the field I understand it is not a fumble if a QB's hand is moving forward as he is being hit. But Mayfield was not being hit here. So the fumble criterion should not be arm moving forward (which is what the ref said), but whether it was a lateral pass. A lateral pass occurs when the ball carrier throws the football to a teammate in a direction parallel to or away from the opponents' goal line. Do we have irrefutable evidence this was a forward pass? Dammit - in the Music City Miracle, they said we cant conclusively determine if it was a forward pass or lateral - so ruling on the field stands. Now since they overruled the call, NFL should tell us the refs could conclusively determine that it was not a lateral - and the explanation should have nothing to do with whether Mayfield's arm was moving forward or not. It is very much possible to throw a backward pass with the arm moving forward - just slow / stop the forward motion and use your wrists.

It will no doubt take a team effort (Gap Integrity on all three levels of defense) and limiting turnovers on offense to beat the Brownies - they are talented. But if one wants to nitpick - the LB duo of Milano and Edmunds shedding blocks and stopping Chubb / Hunt from those inside zone left runs early will be the key. Based on our game film from the last two games, I am quite sure there will be a lot of runs called against us on 1st and 2nd down early in the game. If we build an early lead and Mayfield has to throw - then the secondary will come into play and I have no doubt they will deliver.

That last game vs. Ravens was certainly not Gilmore's best. He was beaten on man coverage a few times when he was a tad slow fighting through traffic. Just saying.

Oh I didnt mean we bring him back since we need safety help:) The Brownies have an inexperienced coach in Kitchens and chances are they wouldnt change their signals:)

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28005022/cleveland-browns-waive-jermaine-whitehead-threatening-posts Shd we bring Whitehead in like Belicheat would? The one time we Belicheated Belicheat was with the Lawyer Milloy signing. Since it worked with a safety once, shd we try it again with Whitehead?

Actually a lot of them are talking about the Bills. Except they are saying the record is product of a bad schedule. In fact Terry Bradshaw called the Bills a bad team. I say we use that as bulletin board material and go beat up on an opponent every week. What they say now does not matter - only what we do in Jan / Feb.

What am I missing? Isnt he going at #22 in the redraft ahead of N'Keal Harry at 29?

Decent move by the Dolphins - get a draft pick for taking on his remaining salary. He is UFA after this season. Given our cap situation, we could have done such a move too. And he could have been CB insurance after week 15.

7 weeks into the rookie season, the first Redraft is here. https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/2019_nfl_draft_re_doing_all_32_first_round_picks/s1_13132_30339743 I am sure there will be comments that this is too early (I partly agree). Ed Oliver is going #26 and is the 5th DT taken (after Q. Williams, Jeffrey Simmons, Dexter Lawrence and Christian Wilkins). His weakness against the run is the reason for the fall (this report is pre-run defense debacle vs. the Eagles). But the news is not all bad for the Bills - Cody Ford goes 16th (and the second OT after the injured Jonah Williams) in the redraft. The Bills Homer that I am, I disagree with the report on Oliver's fall, but totally agree on Ford's rise.

31 y o. But I'd gladly offer Bates and a second rounder for him