IgotBILLStopay

Nice idea for a thread. My picks Start someone other than his incumbent starting Quarterback* week 1: Urban Meyer starting Trevor Lawrence - but if Lawrence already counts as incumbent, I'll go with the Jets. Be a 'one and done' Head Coach: they will all get a bit of rope - so none of them will be one and done but there is a small chance Sirianni might be on the hotseat Make the playoffs his first year: Staley Win NFL Coach of the Year at some point in his first 3 years: Staley Win a Superbowl in the job to which he has just been hired: Staley Become Head Coach of the Buffalo Bills at some point in the future: none of them McD will outlast em all

Taron Johnsonis playing well

OK Goalline stands are the Bills' specialty. C'mon Oliver!

Mahomes having all day - dial up some blitzes

Now upto the Defense - Mahomes tends to gamble - so look out for picks

He has a power game but I thought Wyatt Teller (who we know quite well) handled him quite well one on one, no? Not to say he is bad - just not worth top dollar - at least based off the Browns game. Regardless - the ability of our Oline to handle the KC front 4 and winning the turnover battle are the keys to winning the game.

Ken Clark is the best pass rushing NT I have ever seen.

Have done a deep dive into this matchup and share what I found. Vulnerabilities in bold. First, KC is more balanced a team than the Ravens - but not as much as the Colts. Bills on Offense: KC's DL is quite mediocre for a 14-1 team - Clark and Jones have not really justified their salaries. The secondary (other than the Honey Badger who might blanket Beasley) is weak. Sorensen is quite frequently out of position and Breeland is banged up. The heart and soul of their defense is Hitchens. He has always been in the right position and you can see he is their emotional leader. The Bills offensive gameplan - for all the accolades Daboll is receiving - is actually quite simple with a few trick plays sprinkled in. Augment the OL protection with the RB and / or TE, Allen hangs back, scrambles if necessary and trusts someone from Diggs & Co. will get open eventually. On the one hand, the Bills have the personnel (Allen has become good at reading defenses at LOS and WR can win one on one eventually) and have perfected it well - so the Defense has to be very precise to defend it. But the one-dimensional nature of the offense also does make it a bit predictable. There is absolutely no motion based creativity. So that is a challenge for Daboll this week - put in a few "new looks". The good news is that Allen can make an empty backfield work if he sees some green in front of him. Ravens' defense (loading up against the pass) against the Bills reminded me a bit of the Bills defense against the Chiefs from week 6. The Chiefs exploited that strategy by running the ball all the way to Timbuctoo - but the Bills barely attempted a run and that is why they needed every bit of TJ's pick six for the win. Not having Moss is actually quite a big loss for the Bills since Singletary cant really burn up clock and get the tough 3 yards when necessary. Key stat to watch for: Turnovers. Allen should desist from playing hero ball and has to protect the ball. The x-factor is going to be how well does the Bills Oline protects Allen. If Clark and Jones play to their salary, KC can pressure Allen with a 4-man front and still provide safety help against the Bills deep crossers. If instead the OL + help keep our thoroughbred clean, he can deliver. Game plan: Let Allen cook 70% of the time and Run Singletary at least 30% of the time. Sprinkle in a few new wrinkles on offense just to keep the defense honest - give Allen some play actions - but otherwise let Allen do his thang at the line of scrimmage and we should click on offense. Bills on Defense Just burn the tape from week 6. With no Milano, a green Klein and banged up Edmunds and White, the one dimensional defense did slow Mahomes but let CEH run all over em. This time it will be different. It was the most passive defense I have ever seen. The Bills need to continue with how their defensive scheme has evolved. After going nickel exclusively against the Colts, we did well to go 4-3 in short yardage situations vs. the Ravens. Having Milano and Klein will help cover Kelce, who will be their most dangerous weapon to move the chains. Their size and speed also helps limit the leaked yards in run defense. The Bills have become a lot more aggressive and are blitzing quite a bit. I think this is critical and they should blitz with Poyer / CB at least 30% of the time. Mahomes is hobbled a bit and we have to make him uncomfortable. No offense to Levi and Josh Norman, but our main vulnerability is obviously CB2. That is who KC is going to take shots against. Mahomes is a magician on the field, but a trifle overconfident. He will take shots and offer turnover opportunities. If Miami can intercept him thrice, we ought to get our share. Mahomes will not be afraid to throw at Tre since he has faith in Tyreek - that will be the matchup to watch for us. Tre, our CB2 or Hyde need to come up with a key interception or two. ST We have the edge both in kicking and the return game and should comfortably win the field position battle. Overall: We dont have much margin for error - but this looks like a winnable game so long as the Oline can keep protecting Allen and the Defense continues its recent stellar play. Whoever wins the turnover battle is going to win the game.

That thread was was flagged for a misleading title (it only said count us in for 2 comp picks) - hopefully it is clearer with the detailed title

We always kinda knew that since we only counted it if the ball ended up on the other side, no? The big news for me here was that someone checked to see if it broke the plane or not even when it did not end up going thru the uprights. Just someone with a lot of spare time I guess.

Diggs did benefit from not having the Bills Secondary defend him during the actual games. Similarly, our secondary benefited from not going against Diggs. Just saying. So both their numbers are inflated!!😀

Bills & Bucs Bucs manhandled Rodgers last time out. BIlls lost to KC but were without Milano, had a still green Klein and a dinged up White and Allen. KC had healthy CEH, Mahomes & Breeland then and now all three are questionable. Bills have been the better team down the stretch.

28-25 Bills. Both Defenses are great.

That is actually a very good observation - Klein was barely in vs. the Colts but was featured prominently vs. the Ravens. This was just the Bills moving from an exclusively 4-2-5 (with Taron Johnson) vs the Colts to an alternating 4-2-5 / 4-3 deployment vs. the Ravens. So Taron was the hero in the game despite seeing a lot fewer snaps overall!!! That deployment was unexpected since even against good running teams the Bills had preferred Taron Johnson in there instead of the third LB. At this point, I think Milano and Klein can really play SAM and WILL equally well.

I think all those head coaching vacancies did distract Dabs a bit last week. There is no doubt the Chargers' decision to go with Staley was a big blow since he was THE frontrunner for the position. I dont blame him and I am sure he will be back to being his best vs. the Chiefs.

He is the glue that holds the line together. Dawkins, WIlliams and Mungo have been stellar all year. But Morse and Winters were the weak link. Once he moved in alongside Morse, suddenly the middle of the OL has looked so so solid. He has made Morse better no doubt. Allen has had all day to throw. I'd keep all of em. Continuity is good on the Oline. And Ford will have a role when he returns since the Oline is always vulnerable to injuries.

Wouldnt that be tantamount to a triple demotion? 1. NFL to College (yes I know it is the Jags to Bama .. but still) 2. HC to OL coach skipping the Coordinator position totally I am not one to usually applaud people losing their jobs or getting demoted but Marrone is among the very very few exceptions.

no doubt my criticism is more about the lack of first half adjustments - but we did not do so well even with the second half keepaways - see my example of the play call on 1st down at the Ravens' 31 with 6 minutes left. That was the time for Singletary or Allen keeper or a short quick high percentage pass, no? Hence the criticism.

I did give him credit for the one drive where he used Singletary well in the second half. I also gave him credit for his game plan vs. the blitz. But cant really applaud him for the adjustments in the second half. We scored all of 7 points in the entire second half. One swallow does not a summer make. And, I pointed out questionable play calls in specific second half situations. I am a Daboll fan - last week I gave him a lot of credit for his in-game adjustments vs. the Colts. This week he was more like Kevin Costner in Tin Cup .. and that is not even my opinion - it is a fact borne out by game film.

Really man? Cant you see where people are lining up, where they are moving and what they are reacting to? If you cant use slow mo game film to evaluate a coordinator's performance - how can you evaluate it at all.

Rewatched the entire game on slow mo. Here are the thoughts from that re-watch Both DCs had completely new game plans for this game and neither OC could really cope. Bills on Offense Wink Martindale set up Daboll by stating prior to the game that "we are who we are". I dont think a single observer (including yours truly) expected the Ravens from being anything but aggressive with blitzes. Daboll knows blitzing leaves Diggs against the secondary one on one and gave Allen the green light. On the few occasions (<20%) of the time the Ravens Blitzed, Allen was almost perfect with his short and intermediate throws. That shows the Bills were prepared for the Ravens' blitz. But Wink Martindale cunningly played McD type defenses and sold out to the secondary stopping the Bills WRs and daring the Bills to run. Dabs C'mon man - I cant think of single coach who will eschew the run and keep throwing when the defense doubles down in the secondary. Havent you heard of keeping defenses honest? Reminded me of Tin Cup and Kevin Costner keeping on trying the same shot and landing in the water - it may have been heroic in the movie - but here it was kinda stupid. The first half snooze fest on offense was just Dabs being stubborn. Martindale took another leaf out of McD defense playbook by showing blitz and one-one-one but having the safety in delayed double coverage. Allen threw deep into double coverage a few times. Oh and the plan makes even less sense with the wind conditions being what they were. Clearly folks are blaming the wind for Allen missing Diggs on a deep route - but IMO, Dabs caught a break because of the wind conditions as well - we have to thank the wind for Allen's throws not being intercepted - they were so off when he threw into double coverage😀 It is not a surprise that our best offensive drive of the night came where Singletary had his 12 yard and 9 yard runs. The fact that Allen got 206 yards throwing against that defense tells you how good Allen and Diggs are - they (along with the OL) bailed out their coach by not making any big mistakes (Allen did have a fumble - I called it a Bills' vulnerability in my preview - but kudos to Dawkins for falling on it and limiting the damage). I was also concerned with the play calling in the second half - we have the ball at the Ravens' 31, up two scores and 6 minutes left and Dabs play call leads to an Allen scramble to the right and a harmless throwaway that stops the clock. A three yard run instead there puts us more comfortably in FG range (given the weather conditions) and burns the clock. Really Dabs? Game balls to Allen, Diggs and the entire Oline, a jar of stickum to Gabe Davis and detention with extra study for Daboll. Bills on Defense First the game plan. ever since the Chiefs game, we have seen our defense become increasingly aggressive with the blitzes in passing situations. Most of us remember how they gave Russell Wilson fits since he was dropping back to pass everytime. Nobody expected the Bills to have a similar game plan against Lamar Jackson - although I now see it as the Bills' base defense against scrambling QBs (that is how Lamar and Russ are similar). The Bills' speed at LB with Milano and especially, Edmunds, allows them to sell out on a blitz yet run sideline to sideline to contain Lamar from breaking out. I have always felt that Jerry Hughes winning his one-on-one matchups does not translate well into QB pressures and sacks since he always has an outside move that takes him so far away from the QB. I dont know if this was intent or accident but planning for scrambling QB meant that you had to have the defensive end squeeze inside and the LB loop outside or Hughes on the outside and a blitzer on the inside. Hughes was deadly since his inside move was bringing him into the QB's face half the time. The play that set up the play of the game was the 2nd and 9 where Hughes was in Jackson's face preventing an easy TD to Hollywood Brown. Coming to the Bills' play of the last 25 years - that cover 2 call on the goalline was sheer genius on the part of Frazier closely following the 2nd and 9 incompletion. Leaving Taron Johnson shallow meant Jackson was too concerned with the secondary and failed to spot #24. Again this was the result of an aggressive game plan - if Lamar had more time all day - he would have been patient and gone with the guy Taron Johnson was supposed to cover for an easy touchdown once he saw Johnson cheating. But I am sure Hughes in his face on the previous play rattled him. Overall, the Bills dared Jackson to throw and relied on a. their DL + Blitzer to pressure him and b. their disciplined and elite secondary to stop the completions. When you sell out with a blitz, there is going to be the occasional WR being "left all alone" but neither of the Ravens' QBs could take advantage of the couple of occasions that Hollywood Brown got behind the defense (likely the wind had something to do with it). Strangely enough - if you black out the jersey numbers and just showed me animations, I woulda thought the Ravens Defense (multiple looks with secondary containment) was actually the Bills and the Bills Defense (aggressive blitzing) was actually the Ravens. The Bills' major vulnerability had been the tackling. Micah Hyde in the pre game show was heard saying - "we gotta make sure we tackle well". On the first drive Poyer whiffed and the Ravens moved the ball and I was a lil scared. But as the game wore on, our tackling was pretty decent. Of course the best defense against the Ravens is to run up the score and once the TJ pick six happened, they had to abandon the run quite a bit - which meant we did not have to worry about our tackling so much. Game Balls to Taron Johnson (let us give him 2), Frazier, Edmunds and Hughes. Bottomline: We won handily this week thanks to the defense and despite a flawed plan on offense and adverse wind conditions. Daboll and the offense however get some slack since they have carried us the whole season - I like it that we are balanced enough that each side of the ball can cover the other side's deficiencies and still pull out wins. That is the hallmark of great teams - since they can have an off-day and still beat a decent opponent. Cant wait to punch our ticket to Tampa this weekend. Go Bills.

the we get 3 comp picks. 2 for one poach and 3 for 2.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/01/14/nfl-compensatory-picks-for-minority-coaches-and-executives-explained/#:~:text=(i) The employer-club,hired as either a Head nope Daboll not a minority candidate

Leslie Frazier may have just sealed his HC position with the Texans with that performance!! And introduced Greg Roman to the job market.