SCBills

Mahomes is getting hit a lot so far, but that’s all I’ve got.. watching Hopkins dominate it’s pretty tough scenes right now.

It’s Jim Brown’s granddaughter. This “gotcha” isn’t going to work. Anyway… He actually did it.. kudos to Joe Rogan

AtlasIntel vs Ann Selzer The pollster that nailed 2020 against the pollster who’s been the gold standard of Iowa polling.

Rogan won’t endorse Trump, but he’s coming as close as possible in the Elon podcast.

Trump camp is certainly indicating that their internals show Harris camp is in rough shape with turnout and enthusiasm

Mark Halperin and Van Jones both issuing warnings on PA for Dems today. I think it’s very evident that Trump wins the election, if he wins PA. He can still win without it, but if he wins it, Kamala has zero shot. Harris only has one path, and it includes PA. IMO, that’s reflected by her all day campaigning in only PA.

Haha.. it’s about turnout though. Let’s say Dems reach the ballot advantage of 430k for tomorrow in PA. That’s well within the margin that Trump could quickly erase if his voters turnout tomorrow. Harris needs the cities to turn out for her tomorrow in PA.

Yea.. this final day strategy means something, but not sure what.. What we can guess is that the Harris campaign has decided they desperately need PA and that they view it as a 911 pre-election with 4 events scheduled, all in PA. Trump in PA & MI makes sense, but a day before rally in NC either means he’s worried or, at least, feels the need to shore it up.

And what does Harris spending all day in PA mean?

Thats a neutral number at best. Not “game” for either of them and I’d bet Trump camp would take that number if it was offered to the campaign weeks ago.

PA EV firewall for Dems currently sits at around 410k.

Glean from this what you will..

Fair, but we have to forecast to the Playoffs, and there are worries about how they would hold up against Baltimore, (playoff) KC is a different animal and if Cinci gets in, I’d like to see a better pass rush for once in my life come postseason. I think our Defense is ok.. Average to above average, and if they can get to the playoffs healthy, might be able to finally show up in the postseason. But it seems pretty evident that we need more out of the DL. The obvious issue seems to be that this team isn’t getting what they need from Daquan Jones. To the point that we might want to look at trading for a starter, if possible, and making Jones a rotational guy.

Not opposed but we’re a Keon drop and phantom holding away from a 17 point first half. This game has just been garbage execution and horrible officiating so far.

Are the refs serious!? 3 phantom huge penalties now

This Defense, without fail, has a drive or two like this every game… where they get gashed left and right and utterly demolished by misdirection. Last week we were saved early by Seattle’s incompetence.

I feel like Taron or Bernard go down every game. Such a brutal mistake by Keon.. too bad our defense can’t stop the run to bail him out.

Run, run, Dawkins gets smoked.

We shall see… Ryan Gidursky, best known for getting banned from CNN last week, has consistently posited that liberal seniors are being way overrepresented in polling.

Polling shows that Trump would have won if voters knew about the laptop story. I, personally, have no idea why. Shows how easily swayed our dumb electorate is.. but that sentiment has been expressed. Enough people saying they would have stayed home or voted Trump, if they knew. To whatever extent we can trust polls anymore.

I agree it doesn’t make a ton of sense to compare to 2020 as ‘20 was a one off covid election. This is what makes Tuesday so completely unpredictable. R’s can ask similar questions.. why would people who typically vote early for Dems, all of a sudden vote on E-Day? R data shows that a lot of their early vote are low propensity voters, but for instance.. R seniors have not turned out yet for Trump in PA. Are they waiting for E-Day as R’s are more likely to do, or is that an underlying issue that could lose him the election? Polls are all over the place. AtlasIntel for Trump, NYT/Siena for Harris. Right leaning Iowa for Harris in the ultra reliable Ann Selzer poll. Left leaning hopium poll all cycle, Morning Consult, breaks for Trump. I think what Atlas says is true.. if white men show up on Tuesday, Trump wins. If it’s a meh showing, Harris has the edge. I think Trump will get a small amount of D crossover, but I do think more R’s will vote Harris than vice versa .. to what extent, we’ll see. Still some Haley supporters & DeSantis supporters who became Never Trump after the primary, plus those who were that to begin with. I could see that R crossover being maybe more in GA, NC and AZ… As Trump has a different appeal to white working class folks in PA, WI and MI that seems to mitigate the Never Trump sentiment.

Yea, these cross tabs are ridiculous… She better hope she’s right, because if not… this was completely irresponsible, bordering on an in-kind campaign contribution.

Trump loses Selzer’s Iowa Poll but wins the election via left leaning Morning Consult.. Ok then…

EV data states that she’s the underdog. All polling up until this weekend does as well. Now all of a sudden Selzer and (tomorrows NYT/Siena) drop Harris surge polls out of nowhere… Maybe they’re correct .. also seems contrived. We shall see.

I do know that R/D have equal amount of registered seniors in PA and D’s are up 2:1 in EV. Now some of that could be R’s vote more on E-Day, or maybe Ann found something that translates. I tend to view her poll as bs, tbh, but can’t dismiss it given who she is. R’s have tied D’s in EV for Iowa, which like across the country, is extremely rare or never has happened. Also, R’s have registered a ton of new voters in Iowa. The landscape makes zero sense. But we shall see. And if she’s wrong, she’s done. You can’t drop this poll, with her magnitude, in an election this close. It’s leading news stories, cable news, changing betting markets etc If she’s right.. GOAT pollster.