SCBills
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Posts posted by SCBills
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Democrats watching that interview…
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Walking it back
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17 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:
I don’t share your politics, but I agree with a lot of this. There really are three major groups in American politics right now: democrats (fractious as they may be), bush/romney republicans, and MAGA, the latter of which has basically accomplished a hostile takeover of the Republican Party. The republicans cut a deal with MAGA and, to save the brand, they need to get rid of trump and try to keep the nationalists. easier said than done. I think they should pull that band aid sooner than later, but the longer they’re in bed with trump the closer they get to losing their traditionalists.
Clearly Trump’s play is try and merge MAGA with disaffected Democrats on issues of censorship, war, the economy and border & then bank of trad conservatives holding their noses and voting for him when the time comes.What he did today maybe helps with disaffected Dems/Moderates in the Rust Belt but hurts him with trad conservatives in NC & GA.
Trying to view it politically, that’s my best case scenario for him, but Amendment 4 is so aggressively pro-abortion that it wasn’t a risk he needed to take.
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18 minutes ago, K D said:
He will be gone in 4 years and probably dead in 10. He's almost 80. We need to fix this country in the meantime so we can get on the right path. Deport all of these illegal criminals and get the economy back on track and stop funding wars and then maybe we have the funds to invest in actual Americans. If families are doing well maybe they are stronger and people aren't having kids out of wedlock or running around being promiscuous. I don't think we are in a position as a country right now to be so picky. For whatever reason we are stuck with Trump because the other side is far more evil
You don’t need to convince me.. imvoting for him in the grounds of border security and fighting censorship.
Im just telling you, this was a massive unforced error.
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Just now, K D said:
So then who are they going to vote for? The side that wants to kill their kids or take them away and turn them into drag queens? Not voting for Trump is a vote for Kamala. All of my libertarian friends that think they are so hip for voting 3rd party are just allowing the Dems to win
I get it.. but there’s a large sentiment of the conservative base that wants him gone.Hes the nominee so it’s him or Kamala.
And to them 4 years of Trump / stopping 4 years of Kamala needs to be of stronger appeal than ridding him entirely by another election loss so we can usher in Youngkin or DeSantis and not have to deal with JD Vance / Vivek MAGA continuance.
They’ve put up with his garbage personality, pathetic role modeling and dragging the party left because of goodwill built up in his 4 years and the alternative being untenable to consider.
When he comes out to say he’s voting yes on abortion up to birth, it finally broke them. And I don’t blame them.
He can still win them back, but holy **** that’s a big screw you he just levied to pro-life evangelicals.
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Trump voting yes on Amendment 4 is a massive misstep.
Ive defended him taking a more pro-choice stance in this election, but this ain’t it.. and hes getting destroyed by pro-life evangelical voices on social
media.. mostly women.. saying they cannot vote for him in good conscience any longer.
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8 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:
seems to be a discrepancy. I note the site you linked is interactive
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ Harris 58% trump 42 chance of winning
I don’t think Nate Silver is with 538 anymore. They use his branding but Silver has his own model now. Pretty sure he publicly said he doesn’t agree with their modeling methods this cycle.
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Make sure you get those Gold Star families on record..
How dare they invite this monster to pay his respects!!!
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I truly hope Jason Miller is misinformed here, because… there’s no way.
18 minutes!?
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Lol
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Nate Silver’s model has Trump now in the lead.
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2 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said:
Nate Silver's aggregation has Harris +2 nationally post convention: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
I think looking at all the polls and factoring in MOE, Harris is probably +3,+4 nationally. I'd say it as +1/+2 before the DNC if we're being realistic.
Prior elections Dems needed a +4 to win. (it's crazy 20 year olds today have never seen a Republicans President candidate win the popular vote). But I think some of the polling is seeing shifts. Like the latest CA poll for Harris was +20. So if Harris is polling nationally +3 or +4 and only +20 in CA, that means the votes are coming from other states. Biden got 46 percent in TX in 2020 and right now the polling is around 44% for Harris (CA and TX are the two most populous Dem states.
Theres definitely a realignment going on.Reliably red states in AZ, GA & NC now battlegrounds. Same for the “Blue Wall” of PA, MI & WI.
Florida and Ohio becoming reliably red, while Colorado and Minnesota move further blue.
Arizona GOP voter registration advantage has doubled recently, but in Fox News polling, Harris is up 8 point amongst those who have moved there in the last 10 years.
Unmarried women becoming an absolute monster of a voting group for Dems, which is helping to build Dem vote w/ minorities in Georgia (Atlanta), NC (Charlotte/Raleigh) and AZ (Phoenix) while the white working class moves to the right in the Rust Belt.
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This is actually the best political analysis on the current media hysterics..
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5 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:
Nope, I’m questioning your approach. Biden was on the tarmac, and he did meet with those families in advance of the dignified transfer. As he should have in his capacity as President. You latched onto the narrative that he did neither such thing, which is obviously false. Then you attempted to pivot to blame Harris for not doing the same. But she wasn’t President then. All of that, of course, was done in an effort to justify the selfish nonsense that Trump pulled yesterday in the sacred space that is Arlington.
The Gold Star families invited Trump.
The Gold Star families made it known neither Biden nor Harris have called them.
Seems your issue is with the Gold Star families, not me.
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12 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:
Hoax. This isn’t how you started. At first it was “Biden/Harris.” Now it’s Harris. My guess—without looking it up—is that Biden met the families on the tarmac at Dover. Hence your subtle deflection.
Harris is running for President, which is why I specifically reference her here.Maybe Dana Bash can ask her about being last in the room and if she feels any remorse over how their plan unfolded. Ask if she has reached out to the families, despite their allegations otherwise and/or now plans to as Presidential nominee.
Are you questioning the Gold Star Families? They are frustrated with the administration for not reaching out.. That’s not me alleging this.. I didn’t lose a loved one on at Abbey Gate. Do you think the tarmac moment suffices?
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1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said:
Hey, maybe I'm giving myself a pat on the back. The royal "we." 😀
I had said that I expect the polls to settle in with Harris with a 3 or 4 point lead nationally, which is exactly what we're seeing.
It’s an interesting dynamic.
Trump is about as well defined a candidate as we’ve ever seen. Nothing can really harm him.. also, not much can help him.
Kamala Harris is an empty suit who just benefitted from a month of glowing coverage, ending with the DNC. Nobody really knows who she is, but at the same time.. maybe that doesn’t even matter.
Will be interesting to see if Trump can move the needle nationally.. which probably would have more to do with Kamala Harris becoming more defined than anything Trump himself does to lift his favorables.
Either way.. the biggest surprise for me is the very real outcome that could be Kamala winning GA/NC and Trump winning PA & MI or WI.
Kemp is starting to do some heavy lifting for Trump in Georgia, headlining a fundraiser for him this weekend, so if I had to guess, a Trump/Kemp rally in Georgia could happen .. and might “need” to happen if Harris continues to make inroads in the peach state. In reality.. it should’ve never gotten to this point .. Trump left himself open with that unhinged attack on Kemp in Atlanta and ever since then, Kamala has closed the gap.-
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How lovely..
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2 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:
Those post-DNC polls are coming out.
And they tell us exactly what we expected.
Which is?Because all the polling seems stagnant now with the battleground states all toss-ups.
I honestly don’t know what anyone expected .. it seems the convention bounce was probably already baked in by the candidate swap bounce and now it’s a tie ball game after weeks of the best coverage any candidate has ever received.
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4 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:
So who said, "Hey, let's take a group photo by the grave giving the thumbs up?"
I guess it could be the photographer, or even the family, but come on. We all know it was Trump. Who else would think of something so cringeworthy?
This is where I lose my ish over the Trump discourse.
I think it’s pretty well known that I think he’s lost his fastball, is a child and wish we had any other candidate.
So I’m not trying to defend him from weird nonsense like this.
What I have no time for, is how this is somehow a story.. when he was literally invited by Gold Star Families .. meanwhile, his opponent brags about being last in the room when the dumpster fire of a plan was executed by this administration, leading to 13 fallen soldiers, of whom none of their families have been contacted by Biden or Harris.
But Trump thumbs up is the problem here…
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5 minutes ago, Roundybout said:
So now we’re using whataboutism? Holy god you guys don’t know how to have a coherent argument.
My argument is that Trump was invited by Gold Star Families and had the decency to show up, while Kamala Harris hasn’t had the decency to even express her condolences to the families who lost their loved one due to poor decision making she was directly involved in.
Your argument is that Trump, like Biden, like many other politicians, blurred the lines on political usage at Arlington Cemetery … even as the Gold Star Families, who have been through enough, have to issue a statement defending him, as our press decides that this is the story that needs to be weaponized for political purpose. Not the fact that these families are going on 3 years with nothing from the current administration that their family members gave their life for.
I think my argument is quite coherent.
You, on the other hand, are screeching over - yet another - media manipulated Trump attack.
Do you ever tire of being such an easy mark?
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4 minutes ago, Roundybout said:
You are not allowed to use those pictures for political purposes. How is this difficult to understand?
Apparently more difficult that you’d realize…-
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Venezuelan gang takes over apartment buildings in Colorado.
in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Posted
Let’s say they aren’t first gen migrants and are here legally .. Isn’t this a big part of the issue over in the UK? Second generation migrants who become disillusioned with society and then we see increased crime/poverty struggles?