[Notes from the Cinci Game]

1 minute ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Thank you @HoofHearted for sharing your insight.

 

question for you and for all:

 

You believe that we’ve seen more man this season because teams have become savvy to our conversion routes that allow for skill players to run to green grass. Man coverage effectively nullifies that. 
 

So if this is the case, are we not recognizing man coverage pre-snap and getting into man beaters?

 

Is Allen unable to make these kinds of checks?

 

Is this why we’ve seen split field reads of man beaters vs conversions or two man route combinations? 
 

If the conversion philosophy is designed so that we are to have the advantage regardless of physical traits, when teams are taking that away with man coverage, we should be heavily utilizing means to scheme guys the ball in space. 

This mostly - but we have to win those match-ups. Outside of Diggs (and possibly Shakir going forward?) we struggle to win those matchups. We've got to scheme them open vs man. Also Josh has to recognize it. He missed one this past game where he read the zone side against man coverage and our man beater backside (I believe it was Shakir on a slant under a rub route) was wide open.

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

2 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

1. We're in agreement that there is a general lack of size and speed across the full roster of Bills receivers. And Orlovsky has said the lasting image of the Bills offense is a static 2 x 2 shotgun. Against the Bengals we ran 12% play action. Since we're not going to utilize motion, and there is no real running threat in our RPO because Allen doesn't/isn't allowed to keep the ball, what is another lever in the quick passing game to buy a half second of hesitation inside? 

I mean there's only so man ways an offense can line up. 2x1, 2x2, 3x1, 4x1, or some version of an over set. In general most teams sit in a 2x2 as it puts the most stress on a defense because the entire field is a threat because there are concepts being run on both sides. The shifts and motions are a double edged sword - when we use them we use them effectively to scheme guys open. Not sure we'd get the same results if we did them all the time because teams would prepare for them. On the other hand using shifts and motions force defenses to talk and CoS shifts/motions force teams to shift or bump at one of the three levels in their defense (this is what I'd like to see more of).

 

On RPO's Allen is the run threat in the first place. We've primarily run these from a Dart concept this season, but we've also used inside zone and mid-zone to RPO off of as well. IMO they're at their most effective when using some type of gap scheme and determining which gap scheme to use would depend on what the backers are keying. Your back is the run threat in those situations, but again, the way to nullify the RPO is by playing man coverage.

 

One thing I mentioned in the OP was I'd like to see them use Gabe like they did in the Bucs game - in condensed sets running, essentially, spot routes off of linebacker drops. We got in condensed and marched down the field multiple times on the Bucs just running Curl/Arrow and Gabe just worked over top the backer drop and curled inside him for a quick and easy 8 yards. He doesn't need to be overly twitchy to win those match-ups - just have to be able to work off of a backer. Condensed sets also force most teams into zone coverage/zone concepts on that side of the ball.

 

14 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

2. Kincaid's longest catch on the year is 22 yards. So if he's catching deep passes, I've missed it. Doesn't mean he's not running them though, I haven't seen Next Gen charting on Kincaid's routes. Since Week 7, Kincaid has a 76.3% route run rate, a 21% target share, 2.15 YPRR, and a 23% first-read share. So a lot of routes that still require his YAC ability. 

We haven't targeted him a bunch downfield, but he definitely runs the entire route tree.

15 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

So I get what you're saying that there is no inherent schematic advantage there. But if you look at his 2023 splits...

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02/splits/2023/

 

...he is performing much better in play action.

 

-127.3 passer rating and a 1.7% sack percentage in play action

-93.3 passer rating and a 4.5% sack percentage in non play action.

 

So something is going on there. I notice that his under center passer rating is 130.7 and his shotgun passer rating is 93.8. I would guess most of our play action comes from under center. So maybe it isn't about play action at all, maybe that's just a correlative positive stat to under center passing?

 

One theory I have had is that Allen is more in rhythm and comfortable throwing the ball in play action and/or from under center. It might not be a schematic advantage at all, but is it possible that Allen for whatever reason simply peforms better when going through that mechanics cycle?

 

Would love to see those splits broken down by coverage - think that'd be very telling.

14 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Thanks. Maybe just Beasley, Brown/Emanual Sanders executed it better or defenses are just better prepared for it today. Josh seemed to execute better back then too though. At least to me.  I know we had clunkers with Daboll as well but nothing like this 5 game stretch in a row since rookie Josh.

Teams have definitely adjusted. We weren't seeing this amount of man coverage before.

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

6 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Thank you for this explanation, and the write up above of course. These things are better to me than the breakdown videos of a couple plays people do.  This part is what I have been trying to explain but I am football stupid. 

 

In any case... maybe this is possibly why Josh seems to hold the ball sometimes. I think maybe he either expected the receiver elsewhere because he read the play different than the receiver and one of them is wrong, maybe even waiting for the receiver/defender to declare, or things like that (again i'm football stupid. my brain also doesn't function and I often search for words that I know but can't find haha.)  This could also be why we sometimes find multiple receivers garbling up the same area and also puts Josh in a rough spot.

 

The other thing I would like to ask is... a lot of people say this is the same offense that Daboll ran.  I dunno if it is or not but to me it does not look like the same offense. Either way, this offense might be better long term if these guys get the execution down better, but I feel at this point they should back off a bit because it isn't working for them and this season is just going to fall hard if they don't get back to some basics.

It's a little of everything with Josh as far as holding onto the ball to long. There have certainly been times him and the receiver haven't been on the same page that have forced him to hold onto it, there are also times where he just waits for them to work to a bigger window, and then there are others where he just needs to recognize the play is dead downfield and take the checkdown before it disappears on you too.

 

It's the same base system. I'm sure the terminology is all carry over as well as a lot of the pass game. What has been different is the run game. Dorsey has put his own spin on that for sure.

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

i dont know if this is correct or not, but there are certain sets we use playaction where Allen is significantly more nonchalant selling the playfake

 

is that due to him reading zone/reduced effectiveness of playaction in man or just sloppiness?

I'd imagine sloppiness. You're not going to want it to look any different regardless of coverage.

[The Rise of the Two High Shell & Its Impact on the Bills]

5 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

thank you. Do you have a last year’s numbers?

I don't, but I'm sure they're out there somewhere.

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

1 minute ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

The only lever being presented is execute better via Allen taking your check downs more. 

 

The team seemingly doesn't want to use play action more, hurry up, Allen designed runs, modern motion concepts. That stuff comes and goes and both McDermott and Dorsey talk about always changing it up. 

 

Outside of Kincaid expanding his route tree, or Allen pushing even more targets to Diggs, what other real practical buttons does this team have to push that will increase scoring?

 

A lot of it is going to come back on Allen to make even better decisions, increase his completion percentage from 71% to 75%, not turn the ball over at all, and try to squeeze/save an extra scoring drive out per game. 

 

Throws must come out quick, and close to the LOS to mitigate an average Offensive Line and an average run game. 

 

 

Couple things:

 - What do you get out of running play action vs all the man coverage we're seeing?

 - Kincaid runs the entire route tree

 - We just need to be more consistent and stop shooting ourselves in the foot

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

17 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

This is where I'm at. 

 

Hoof Hearted is talking about running to where the defenders aren't. 

 

Who is capable of doing that on this offense? 

 

I think Diggs looks as good as he's ever been. I haven't noticed a step loss. He's sudden, he's shifty, he's precise, he catches everything, and has just enough speed (4.45-4.49ish) to get behind people. Maybe the advanced metrics would show that he used to average a bit more separation, somebody posted he's at ~2.65 yards this year. 

 

But back to the point, is it any wonder that the Bills select a consensus 1st Rounder and in 6-games he's passed everyone else and is now the #2 option in this offense? 

 

I think the All-22, analysis, has shown Allen is turning down the hot reads and check downs sometimes, he's not getting the ball to Cook enough, but even Hoof Hearted and Chris Simms and I just heard Greg Cosell say it as well - this is not a very fast/talented offense. 

 

Could Allen have thrown to the middle of the field more and let Harty run away from Awozie on the coverage? Yes.  

 

But I do think there is a mismatch in the way our QB wants to play and the personnel they've handed him. I get the point that NFL defenses have really made it harder to get deep since Mahomes exploded onto the scene in 2018, but I'm sorry, there hasn't been much investment at WR in Allen's tenure here.

 

Last year the bottom 5 of the WR room was: Jamison Crowder, Isaiah McKenzie, Jake Kumerow, Cole Beasley, John Brown. I'm mean Allen got 35 TDs out of that group with Diggs, Davis and Knox. 

 

 

 

All of them are capable of getting separation on the conversion routes - that's the whole point of them. They are designed so that anyone (regardless of physical skill) has a chance to be open simply by running to green grass as opposed to into a coverage. That's why we've seen so much man this year. Teams have become savvy to it and aren't allowing us to run our conversion routes as often and we do not have the guys to beat man coverage consistently. 

[The Rise of the Two High Shell & Its Impact on the Bills]

11 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I’ve noticed two high coverage on plenty of occasions although I’ve only been to one game and seen one on All-22. Do you have access to any stats because I’m basing it on what I’m noticing and the general league trend?

The Bills have seen less Cover 2 than most teams, and as a whole it's not being run a ton in the league. Quarters is by far the most common split safety coverage being run league wide. We're seeing a ton of MoF Closed coverages this year.

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

5 minutes ago, Beast said:

OK, thanks for ghat. I don’t have all 22 access or anything like that.

 

Is he getting separation? Is there a reason you feel they aren’t going to him at all? Covered well?

I dunno, he's been open often on the wheel and Josh just looks him off. It's frustrating at times.

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

10 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

Now that is something I had never considered - that looking vanilla is something you want it to look like to an armchair coach/GM like myself. Makes sense given there are multiply post snap reads/options that can be implemented on each play.

 

Unfortunately, you are shifting my opinion to this is more of a player execution issue than a pure Dorsey issue (although I’m sure it’s a mix of both).  Damn, I really like when I can hate on one guy for all our problems. Ahh well… hahah

It's definitely a mixture of both. We've seen way more man coverage this year than I can remember us seeing in the past and a lot of that has to do with our scheme. The route conversion stuff gets nullified if you don't have a zone defender you can make wrong every snap. I don't think we've done a great job in man coverage from a scheme standpoint from Dorsey's end, but also an execution standpoint from the player side. We're doing a lot of "win your 1v1" instead of scheming guys open using crossers to run away from coverage or using rubs to get guys separation. 

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

2 hours ago, RunTheBall said:

Thank you for the write up, this is fascinating stuff and really helps me understand what’s going on.

 

For such a complex offense, it sure does look vanilla though. Maybe that’s why some guys can’t get on the field or are invisible when they do, they don’t have the head for it.

 

Seems to me the burden is on the players to figure out the coverage pre snap, then adjust their routes post snap using 1-4 options depending on where they are when they hit their decision point, then be on the same page with Josh at that decision point. Yikes! Takes a lot of the burden off Dorsey to outsmart the DC. Instead, he has such a complex offense with man/zone beaters built in to most plays that he can say “Hey, if you guys just did these 5 things correctly pre and post snap the play would have been a success”. That’s a lot to ask on every play especially when the explosive plays are taken away and we have to march down the field.

 

 

To your first point - that's exactly what you want. When you watch a game and without understanding what is happening our offense looks extremely vanilla. That's what makes it so hard to defend, because if you come into the game thinking I just need to stop these however many route concepts and then you go out to stop those you won't even see those routes because they'll be converted to something different. Now obviously this isn't the case on every concept, but we do have quite a few that are.

 

It's definitely not as complicated as it sounds. In the simplest form it's run to where the defenders aren't. Is it more to handle mentally than just a pre-determined concept, sure, but from my experience players love it because it gives them the opportunity to be open every time.

1 hour ago, Beast said:

I like what you said about we aren’t fast as an offense. That is so true and it seems we do nothing to attempt to take advantage of the speed we do have.

 

For instance, it seems we almost always have Cook slip out of the backfield and sit underneath. I have no issue with this as it is a nice 5-8 yard gain as coverage from all angles quickly converge. The point being Cook is stationary when he catches the ball. 

 

Cook is a very fast player. I don’t recall ever seeing him deployed on a wheel route that he may actually be able to just use flat out speed to beat defenders for a big play. I’m not trying to compare era’s but Thurman Thomas was used on these routes very successfully and though Thurman was a better receiving threat than Cook is, Cook is faster than Thurman was. I’d love to see the Bills at least try this. And not ***** can it if it doesn’t work the first time. Give the defense something else to think about.

 

And I won’t even get into the way Harty is not being used.

 

 

 

Cook is used on wheels every time we run mesh, and is the first read on that concept the majority of the time. We've also split him out when we go empty to try and get him the ball in the open field. Can they do more of it, certainly, but it's definitely been done to some degree.

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Thanks for this.  What’s frustrating to me about what you’re describing is that on both sides of the ball, for the most part (excepting Torrence, Kincaid, Dorian), these are players who have been playing in these schemes for quite awhile now.  It seems like they are not practicing the right way.  You’re describing post-snap execution errors not schematic issues.  Are they simply not preparing enough?

I don't think it's a preparation issue. I'll put it this way - it's hard to pre-determine human reactions. What I mean by that is individual player movements post-snap will not look the same every time they do something - there will be variance simply because those guys are human too. So for example - from a pre-snap look a player could have a preconceived idea of what coverage a team is playing. However, if post-snap the defender is slow to react or diagnose what is going on that will delay our receivers post-snap processing which can then throw off the timing of a concept. It's not that our guys are doing the wrong things all the time. More often it's timings that are thrown off.

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

34 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Sounds like a coaching issue, yes? We talk a lot about player execution versus coaching on here, but it seems to me that the former is following from the latter. I don't believe, for example, that a seasoned veteran like Micah Hyde would be making errors like that on his own if he was being prepared the right way. Similarly I don't believe Josh Allen would take a 1v1 deep shot to Deonte Harty if he was being prepared the right away. I think on both sides of the ball there is a big lack of detail from the coaching, and a lack of understanding of each player's strengths/weaknesses, and this is leading to many of these errors that we attribute solely to player execution.

 

The eye discipline on zone blitzes, yes. The 1v1 from Allen, no. That's just him playing within the scheme and taking the match-up he likes. In McDermott's defense too you can clearly see on film there has been an emphasis on details since he took over. Footwork and eyes have been much improved - you can really see the difference when the back-ups come in.

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

14 hours ago, stuvian said:

Rushing 5 and 6 defenders and getting no pressure is failure. 

There’s no doubt about it, and it’s on both ends. We’re not hitting home sometimes but also the coverage isn’t allowing us to hit home at other times. It’s frustrating to continually see us playing with zone eyes on these zone blitzes - man match and give your rush a chance.

[The Rise of the Two High Shell & Its Impact on the Bills]

10 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Everything is cyclical. The high flying, explosive offenses predicated on chunk pass plays have led to the re-emergence of defenses like Cover 2 (two high shell) and to a lesser extent Cover 4 (quarters). NFL schemes are complex, but generally those two coverages are poor against the run while Cover 1 and 3 are much better against it.

 

The upshot of the big uptick in Cover 2 is that offenses have been limited on deep shots and have gone even more to an underneath game than previously. Overall offensive efficiency is up, but scoring and yardage are down because offenses are taking smaller wins at the expense of explosive plays. I’ll have to find the stat, but one play over 20 yards on a drive increases the chances of scoring on that play dramatically.

 

The other thing C2 gives the defense is five players in underneath coverage. This is why it’s more popular than C4 right now. Defenses are taking more risks jumping routes, blitzing (2 high shell with 4  under), aggressive pass rushing, etc. Defensive coordinators know they’ll get carved up if they play passively so causing a turnover or other negative play is worth the risk of a big offensive play - especially if there are safeties over top to prevent a score. Once a team does get inside the red zone if a defense can tighten up and only allow a FG attempt, then that’s a win for the defense these days. 

 

So what does an offense have to do to get a defense out of C2? Two big things: 1) Effectively run the ball and 2) Run an efficient passing game with a QB (and receivers) who can make the correct reads quickly. 

 

That brings us to the Bills. This is why Kincaid is starting to kill it. He is an excellent route runner who uncovers quickly. It’s also why Gabe Davis isn’t getting many looks - he doesn’t uncover quickly. The lack of a dependable run game has been killing the Bills. If teams can stay in 2 high and stop our run game they don’t have much reason to get out of it and it makes life tough on our QB. Allen has not been bad, but seeing so much two high is an issue for him. He’s much better when he can take deep shots more often than he is quickly reading defenses and distributing the ball with pinpoint short and intermediate passes. 

 

We just saw a team that is made to handle this. Burrow and his WRs are the kind of players that will thrive against two high - with or without blitzes coming at him. It’s their game. As for the Bills, without a running game I think we are in for more of what we have seen so far this year. They can still be a good offense, but it won’t be great or explosive because teams will stay in 2 high. They absolutely have to find a way to get that run game moving. If they can’t get the run game going then they should probably try to find a WR on the team who is better at uncovering quickly than Davis and sub him in more. That will give Allen another quick option and stress defenses more. 

We actually haven’t seen a lot of Cover 2 from defenses against us this season.

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

8 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Kincaid comment was in reference Davis pulling coverage away. His long on the year is 22 yards, it's not like they're bombs away with him. He's catching more of the type of patterns he was in his first game against the Jets. 

I'm assuming your line of thinking is that because Davis is pulling coverage that Kincaid should be running deeper routes?

 

11 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

The other comment on the run game is in reference to the Bills being dominated in the run game by the Bengals defensive line. When I watched that game, I felt like they ditched the run early and rightfully so. 

 

So when I looked it up, Cook only had 6 carries, and Murray had just the two conversions later in the game. The Bills running backs outgained the Bengals rushing offense including Burrow without any of Allen's carries. So while some plays looked bad, the Bengals stuffing the run was a small part of the actual plays that were run. 

Right, the response was to a question posed about the OL and their execution in both the run and the pass. It wasn't about the volume of runs - just that they didn't execute well when called upon. So I'm still not clear why you're bringing up number of carries.

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

23 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I'm not sitting here thinking a 4th Round WR who ran a 4.54 and had a 3 cone of 7.08 should be a physically dominant player. 

 

But when your GM goes out gives a 2-year, $9M deal to Harty and says - he can play outside or inside and he's been given 9 snaps in the last 2 games. 

 

Harty shows phone-booth ability on the flat route against New England, showed the same ability on his catch against Miami, why can't he get 2 balls thrown to him a game. 

 

Why can't Gabe get 70% of snaps, Harty 30%? 

 

The aggregate looks great with Gabe, but 5/9 games this year he's 40 yards and below. 

 

Kincaid's long this year is 22 yards, so he's getting more volume, but the routes aren't different. 

 

I'm not in the building - I can't answer this. You're right though - he is electric with the ball in his hands in open space. If it's a matter of him struggling to learn the scheme (pure speculation on my part) you'd think they'd at least be able to use him in the screen game. They've used him as an outside receiver deep ball threat and he's looked less than impressive in that role, but they do need to find a way to get him the ball in space.

 

Not sure what you're getting at with the Kincaid comment.

26 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Cook got 6 runs. 

 

Murray got 2 runs. 

 

The rest was Allen. 

Again, not sure what you're getting at here.

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

14 minutes ago, Jukester said:

@HoofHearted, great insight. Thank you.

 

In your opinion, is offensive play design/play calling ok?  Is Josh seeing the progressions or are there plays to be had?
 

In other words, is it Dorsey, Josh, overall offensive execution, or a combination of things?

All of the above at different times throughout the game. Here's what I mean:

 

Drive 1: Dorsey did a fantastic job with a Change of Strength shift then motion to scheme Diggs wide open in the flat for a big gainer

Drive 2: Dorsey motions across the formation and pulls the overhang into the box vs the split zone run concept we run and it gets shut down

Drive 2: Dawkins whiffs a block on a well designed pin and pull concept that would have gone for at least 10 had he maintained the down block

Drive 2: Dorsey schemes Diggs 1v1 on a backer using a short motion and Diggs runs an in-breaking route vs inside leverage instead of running the out-breaking route he should have (and Josh anticipated him running)

Drive 2: Vertical pass concepts are covered - Allen doesn't take the check-down which probably would have gotten us into a forth and short in "go for it" territory

Drive 3: Allen under throws a hole shot and gets intercepted

Drive 4: Morse whiffs a block on outside zone that would have been a solid gainer had he made it

Drive 5: Allen does a really good job with eye manipulation to uncover Kincaid on a decent gain

Drive 5: Allen takes the 1v1 option to Davis and isn't on the same page and throws the vertical instead of playing the field concepts which were also man beaters vs man coverage

Drive 6: Allen mis-reads an RPO that should have been a give and ends up dirting the ball because there wasn't anything there

Drive 6: Ran the same RPO off Dart action that we ran at the beginning of the game and it's executed perfectly again

Drive 6: Vertical pass game is covered and Allen doesn't take the checkdown

Drive 6: Torrence trips on a slip screen that would have otherwise been a big gainer

Drive 7: Man coverage and Allen looks to Diggs/Kincaid side instead of going to his man beater side - had Shakir open on a crack/slant

Drive 8: Stack receivers too tight to formation on the Dart RPO which pulls overhang defender into the box when Josh correctly gives the ball - Brown also whiffed his block.

Drive 8: Kincaid fumble

Drive 9: We finally used Tight Ends to block on the perimeter screen game!!!

 

It's a mixed bag of everything. There were some really good things from Dorsey from a scheme and play calling perspective - there were also some head scratchers. Josh did some really good things, but also did some boneheaded things. Overall execution at times was really good and others really bad.

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

20 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Thanks for the reading recommendation. I will for sure look into it! I understand the basics. That was a loose use of the word autonomy. Apologies. 

But I digress. Your eye seems much better than mine. Do you think this offense is getting lost in the amount of variables per play we seem to have compared to past seasons? 

I don't think so. The pass game is largely carry over from Daboll's system - and a lot of that came from his time at the college level at Alabama. He brought a bunch of schemes that have been run consistently at the college level to the NFL.

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

23 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Also it seems like they are having repeated issues when Allen goes to the man coverage option he likes instead of following the progressions. I'm not blaming Allen, like you have said this is built into the offense. But I'm wondering if they should remove that option from the scheme entirely and stop relying on these guys to win 1v1s, because it just isn't happening frequently enough. Until we get better weapons, I don't think trust throws should be a major part of our arsenal.

It's a slippery slope. Allen has made a ton of big time plays by taking the 1v1 he likes as well. It's one of those "it is what it is" type of deals imo. I think we win more of those plays than we lose which ultimately is all you want.

 

25 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

On the OL, have you noticed a difference since the start of the year? Earlier there were metrics showing we were a top 5 OL in pass and run blocking, but in recent weeks I have noticed a major drop off there. I wonder if coaching is an issue here? Everybody appears to be playing worse as the season goes along. Our coaches misevaluated Wyatt Teller when they traded him away for nothing. It's been a huge issue for years now.

Really good defensive lines are hard to play. Defensive lines have become more and more athletic every year and so the separation in the mismatch gets wider each year. I don't think it's so much that we've been getting worse, but I think it's been more a shift in how defenses have been playing us as of late. We're seeing a lot more pressure than we did early on and we've played a bunch of really well coached front 7 units the past three weeks in New England, Tampa Bay, and Cinci. We put Dawkins on an island all night against one of the league better pass rushers - he's going to lose a few of those match-ups. Torrence is still young and things are happening fast - one extra step is the difference in a perfect pockets vs. a sack in this league. He's been mostly solid on 1v1, but movement has been his struggle and it mostly (from film) looks like it's just processing time. He's a half-step behind. He'll get there. 

 

The run game stuff this week was just the Bengals being really freaking good in the run game. Their backers are super impressive in how tight they fit things and how athletic they were. It forced our guys to have to wrap super tight at times and they're just not athletic enough to do it consistently.

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

19 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

2. I think the Bills need to break up Gabe's snap count. Honestly, he's getting 95% of snaps. You're telling me the entire offense goes belly-up because of his blocking? It's not working anyways, we're scoring 20 ppg in our last 5. So why can't he be put in a rotation with Sherfield and Harty? He can still be the primary outside, but we're a year and half into this Gabe is a full-time starter, and it's just inefficient trying to get him the ball. 

 

Allen throws to Diggs and Kincaid because it just works.

Gabe isn't a #1 - the expectations for him on this board are astronomical and I don't really understand why. Gabe is what he is - he is not a guy who will go out there and dominate a game because of his athletic ability. He is not overly fast and he's not twitchy enough to be a good route runner. However, he can be schemed open on 1v1 matchups via option routes which is what has happened when we've seen him have his success. When teams don't allow him to have those opportunities he's not a real factor in games, but he is pulling coverage which should be opening things up for other guys (and it has - Kincaid/Shakir have been the biggest benefactors the past few weeks). As Kincaid continues to develop teams will eventually start pulling coverage his way which will then open things back up for Davis to win his 1v1's. There's a rhyme and reason for why things are happening - you just have to know what you're looking for.

 

What I completely hate about Davis is how he catches the ball. It's so unorthodox and the big reason he drops so many balls.

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

12 minutes ago, Mango said:

Great breakdown, thank you!

Question for somebody who seems much smarter than me. A buddy of mine texted me today that Fournette said this was the most complicated passing offense he had ever seen. Assuming that is true, by your eye does it this offense seem overly complicated or that players (OL, WR, QB) are struggling to understand their responsibilities?

 

By my eye it looks like the WR's in this offense have lot of autonomy (responsibility?) to run their routes based on their coverages and this is where some of the miscues between WR and QB seem to be happening. It isn't just the option route stuff like we saw with Davis. But it seems like depth and direction of route is a struggle too. 

I am kinda-sorta hoping this is the case, because it seems like such an easy fix. It is at least better than entire offensive concept being flawed, or having to limp through until the draft/FA. 

 

 

Let me try to explain as best I can. Yes, there are a ton of route conversions within our pass game. Those route conversions are based on post-snap reads. There are defined depths at which you need to have made a decision by (this is called the decision point). So as an example lets use the easiest version of this, a two option concept - as an outside receiver I'm staring at the defender lined up across from me as the ball is snapped - if i get to 10 yards (my decision point) and I can touch the defender I'll keep going vertical and win with speed - if i can't touch the defender then I'll shut it down and hitch back to the QB. So to your point - our receivers don't have the autonomy to run whatever they want - the options are defined as well as the decision point. Route depths, however, can become an issue when first learning the scheme because of post-snap processing time.

 

Now the example I gave is the very simplest form. Our guys can go out there at times with 5 or more options available to them based on the various coverages they are seeing from the defense and where people are (i.e. overhangs, high safeties, etc.). It takes a ton of reps to nail down, but is extremely difficult to stop if executed correctly because you essentially have a built in answer for every coverage. If you want to learn more about it look up Art Briles and the Deep Choice concept he made a living on while at Baylor.

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

15 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Micah against Boyd on a 3rd-10 playing 15 yards off. 

 

How much easier can you make it for Burrow? 

 

 

They were disguising their Man Free look as Quarters pre-snap - that's why he was off 10 yards. The breakdown wasn't because of his depth of alignment, but because he drifted post-snap instead of working his catch technique. If you are playing off man you have to get hands on receivers at the break point to slow them down or you will be beat every time because you're flat footed.

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

21 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

- I thought Davis made at least two major errors: gave up on his route down the left sideline which resulted in Allen throwing to no one and drawing a (stupidly called) intentional grounding penalty.

This was just the two not being on the same page. These are the route conversions I spoke about in another thread. If Davis doesn't get top shoulder on the defender off the LoS then he is suppose to shut it down. Davis knew he wasn't going to outrun the corner so he shut it down. Allen has to see that. We've had a bunch of success on this this year - just not on the same page - it happens. What's more frustrating to me about that play was Allen took his backside 1v1 matchup he liked (fine), but it was Man Free - he had 1v1's across the field and took the single who, pre-snap, is running a vertical vs press man on 3rd and 6. Had Diggs and Shakir win their 1v1's to the field for an easy 1st down completion.

 

28 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

- Apart from the X's and O's, there is something lacking in the scheme which allows quick release QBs to have success. Imo, the pressure has to come from the front 4 allowing the backers and DBs to cover and take away the quick throw opportunties. Why do you think we are failing in this regard?

A lot of times we're playing match coverages, but our guys are playing with zone eyes instead of working to their assignment and then peaking. Poyer, Dodson, and Williams all got caught doing this at times and so their caught flat footed instead of widening to their assignment (whether than be a Seam 2 player or 3 quick player). We're running a bunch of 3 under 3 deep concepts as well (because we haven't been productive rushing 4) to try and generate pressure and that in and of itself makes it tough to cover everything.

12 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

@HoofHearted

 

On the third Bengals TD before half, what happens to Hyde there? Isn't his man the TE who leaks for TD

Yes, we're in man coverage and his man assignment initially stays in to block. He can now add-on to the rush, but he has to rush through his man assignment on his rush (essentially run through his assignment and push him into the QB) in case he releases late (which he did). This is what Edmunds was doing a lot when he rushed and people just thought he was an idiot just running into the RB... this is what happens when you don't account for your assignment.

[Notes from the Cinci Game]

Defensively

The Bad

 - Underneath defenders repeatedly caught staring at QBs eyes instead of working to a man in zone coverage (Poyer, Dodson, D. Williams, Shaq)

 - Poor path by Floyd on the naked bootleg allowed Borrow time to get the play off clean

 - Dodson fit incorrectly multiple times

 - Played the Stalk & Go incorrectly twice

 - Add-ons HAVE to rush through their coverage assignment otherwise that touchdown is exactly what happens

 - Micah caught on the deep ball to Chase that went over top of Dane - people matter!

 - Poor rush integrity a couple times

 - Miscommunication multiple times - Dorian busted a coverage on motion and then later him and Douglas busted coverage to the flat (each thought the other had the flat - both hesitate towards it - Williams eventually takes it, but was too late)

 - Still don't have RZ man coverages in - have to be able to switch off routes in man down there

 

Overall Thoughts

 - Thought we fit the run really well for the most part all night

 - Found it interesting we played with a Crash 4 and Wide 9 to the open side all night (curious if that's going to be a staple going forward or just a game plan deal based on the Bengals Tackles)

 - We're trying to disguise our Hole coverage, but we're tipping it with our Linebacker alignment. Might as well just line up in it since we're not fooling anyone.

 - Not sure how to feel about us moving our DEs inside and DT out whenever we're running games (we don't do it every time). On one hand it puts our athletes in positions to make plays, but on the other it tips what we're doing (we've done this since McDermott has been here). Noticed it with Floyd line up as a 3tech running a Pirate game

 - Norman calling for a flag instead of finishing the play on the final run of the game - it's inexcusable

 

Offensively

The Bad

 - Bengals DL dominated the LoS all night. Multiple, just flat out, whiffs on blocks in the run game that would have gone for good gains

 - Allen holding the ball too long - take the checkdown and give yourself a chance (did better with this as the game went on)

 - Tex game gave us trouble all night on the right side of our line

 - Cook tipped the slip screen that Torrence fell on with his alignment

 - Dawkins got beat multiple times because he overset

 - We're missing some good potential gains when Allen is choosing his 1v1 backside over working the concept side

 

Overall Thoughts

 - Thought we did some good things with shifts and motions to scheme guys open - would like to see more of that

 - Allen did a good job with his eyes multiple times pulling defenders where he wanted them and then throwing off of it

 - Shakir continues to impress underneath with the option package that Beasley used to run for us

 - Allen working Diggs/Kincaid side every time we're running mirrored concepts (Again, people matter so it's good from that standpoint, but it's also a tendency)

 - Q Counter looked really good. I miss the QB run game. It puts so much stress on a defense, but I understand why we've gotten away from it.

 - Like the creativity of the reverse flea flicker in that shot area. Unfortunately they were in man so there was no play to be had. Would have been nice if it would have just checked to the reverse vs man coverage because it was there.

 - Davis is what he is - he's not a route runner - he doesn't have twitch. He's phenomenal in the run game for the most part and is versatile in that aspect. Would be nice to play into that more. Play him more condensed - get him matched up on backers within the Hook/Curl area and I think he could excel there (showed some of this vs. the Bucs with our condensed sets)

 - We are not fast as an offense - Diggs even looked slow on that one he got out on