Shaw66

You know, the Morse replacement thing is a good example of how little we know. It's obvious now that the Bills had a high degree of confidence that McGovern beside Torrence would be a fierce combo, and that Edwards could do the job. Some or a lot of the credit has to go to Aaron Kromer. But the point is, we don't really understand what these guys can do and can't do; McDermott and his staff are good at that evaluation. How we all felt about Bernard going into 2023 is another example. Receiver by committee is another.

Interesting discussion. I don't think the offensive production happened because of a superstar performance by Allen. I think we're now seeing the Allen that has been developing over the past several years, the Allen who's taken the desperation bomb out of his arsenal and replaced it with the high percentage completion. The example I've given before is that I'd rather have Allen thrown a ten yard pass with an 80% completion likelihood than a 40 yarder that has a 50% completion likelihood. In the current NFL, positive plays are more important than explosive plays. And I think you're ignoring or undervaluing what Brady has meant to all of this. I think it's amazing how often Allen, more or less in rhythm, delivers a pass to a guy who's wide open. This offensive has an answer for every defense, the players (particularly Allen) recognize the defense and run their routes, and Allen knows where the open guy is going to be. All of that allows Allen to throw balanced, with a quality arm motion, and deliver an easily catchable ball. They made the game easier for Allen. We see it when he's standing at the LOS, looking around, changing blocking assignments or plays. Then, when the play starts we see it because he rarely is surprised - everything is as he thought it was, and then his receivers come open exactly where they're supposed to come open. But they didn't make it easier by dumbing down the offense. The offense is as complicated as ever, but it's easier for Allen to run it. I think we're seeing, for the first time his career, executing the game plan and the plays as called. He's doing it because it all works, and it works because of what Brady has done. Brady's given him an offense where guys get open consistently and that Allen can execute consistently. Then, as you say, on top of that, Allen makes his share plays that are unique to him. I mean, Mahomes makes his plays, too, and some other guys from time to time, but I don't think anyone makes so many of those plays. Lamar may make a run or two that Allen can't, but Allen makes ten throws that Lamar can't. Mahomes has some effective runs, but not Allen runs. Not many guys make that throw to Coleman - not the one this week, which was great in its own right, but the one last week, when Allen waved Coleman downfield so Josh could throw it 60+ yards. Bottom line, you seem to think that we're seeing an accident that isn't likely to be repeated. I don't think it's that at all. McDermott doesn't run the team to win by accident. What we're seeing has been created by design. Not to make this a LAMP, but last summer I kept saying that the receiver room was put together by design. It was receiver by committee for sure; all that was necessary was to pick the committee. The Bills had all the guys they have now (minus Cooper), and they also had MSV and Claypool. And Shorter and Shaver. And probably one or two I'm forgetting. It was very clear that the Bills were going away from the number one stud receiver, that they were taking a different approach to passing offense, an approach that was more like what the Rams, 49ers, and Lions all had been doing - attacking all over the field, creating stress points in the defense and sending a receiver to those points for easy completions. I could see that it was being done by design, and we now can see that they knew what they were doing. It's not an accident, and it's not because Allen had some superstar season. I don't think Kincaid's usage is about holding him back. I think it's about what the opponent's defense looks like, where they can be attacked, and with what routes. Like everyone else, Kincaid eats when his are the routes that take advantage of what the defense is doing. It's all about every guy making plays when it's his turn.

I agree. Knock Mahomes on his butt once or twice on the way to a win in the AFC championship game - that's why Beane signed him. The plan was knock Mahomes on his butt year after year, but the knee injury took him out for the first two seasons of what was essentially a three-year deal. Third time's the charm, and all that.

Hap - This is a really interest post you put up in August about the offense and the passing attack. You were absolutely right about low-risk, low reward. Someone posted that the touchdown to Cooper was Allen's longest TD pass this season. The Bills are, in fact, putting together a lot of 10 play drives. But they've shown very well that they're built for blowouts. Everything you said in August was correct, except this. Few of us, if any, foresaw the devastating effect that offense can have when you have creative schemes, play designs, game plans, and a Josh Allen to execute them. We got a powerful, high scoring offense that doesn't drop bombs all over the field, and still scores - a lot. The OP in the Brady thread told us that the Bills are second all-time in points per drive. They're doing that without a 1000-yard receiver and without a 1000-yard rusher. It hardly seems possible, but that's what they're doing. I was one who said one or two receivers would go over 1000 yards, it just was tough to say who it would be. Kudos to Hondo and to Alphadawg. They both had a lot to say that was pretty much on point, although pretty much everyone overpredicted. I remember thinking in August that the negative nellies were wrong in saying that no one would go over 1000. Well, they were right, but in terms of big picture, they were completely wrong. For some interesting reasons, no one over 1000 has been a blessing, not a curse. Amazing year.

After his sack he was breathing heavily for several minutes on the bench. Not a good sign.

Yeah, Sunday there were a couple of plays where he attacked the run at the line of scrimmage, and I thought, "that's different." He isn't afraid to hit, and he seems to have good speed, so let's hope he's learning his way into the role. For me, simply the eye-test tells me he's a better talent (size and athleticism) than Hamlin. To his credit, Hamlin learned the position and plays it about as well as his talent will allow.

I've been thinking about this. What good is an elite cornerback when the Bills offense doesn't have a 1,000-yard receiver? Are they going to play man-to-man all the time so their elite cornerback can shut down Khalil Shakir? And while they're playing man-to-man, are they going to let Josh Allen run all over their defensive backfield? Or are they going to play zone? If they play zone, what good is an elite cornerback?

Nope. I would have loved being there, but not as much as Thrivefourfive.

I hear you, and I see what you see, but there are a couple of things about that. First, I think he's working his way back. I don't think he's fully recovered. But whether he's fully recovered or not, there's a more important point from McDermott's perspective. Every player's job is to execute his assignment to the best of his ability every time. The assignment is determined by the player's abilities. Your job is to get to your spot to the best of your ability. If your abilities are limited, then your spot is a little different, and the rest of the defense adjusts because your spot is different. What's important is that you get to your different spot every time, and your teammates will cover for you. Williams clearly can get to more spots than Milano, based on my observations. However, Milano gets to his spot every time, because he makes his reads and he knows his assignments. It's more important to McDermott that Milano does it every time than that Williams will do it better sometimes. That's why Klein was the choice last year. He was physically limited, but he executed to the best of his ability. So, if you're correct and Milano has lost a step, he'll be replaced next season. But he can't be replaced this season, because there is no one who can execute the assignments as well as he can. That's why Williams goes to the bench as soon as Milano is physically able to play. And that's why Elam sees such limited playing time, despite the talent we seen when he's on the field. You can disagree with that approach if you want, but it's how McDermott sees it, and he's the coach.

My recollection is that coming out of college Bishop had excellent physical skills and most importantly, he played his position flawlessly in college. He was smart and led the team. I think the Bills liked him for his smarts, just like they liked Bernard for his smarts. However, I suspect that safety is one of the toughest positions to learn in McD's defense, because the responsibilities are so broad. Cover like a corner, tackle like a linebacker, blitz, disguise what you're doing presnap. As some have said, missing a lot of camp hurt him, because that's the best opportunity to try to get up that learning curve. I think he's a good candidate to make a significant leap in year two. He has the measureables, and next year in camp he will be able fine tune the things he's learning about the position late in this season.

It isn't loyalty, at least not in the usual sense. McDermott has a bias in favor of players who know and execute their assignments repeatedly, over players who may have better physical skills but who miss assignments. Milano executes, and I'm guessing that Williams doesn't. I like a lot of what I've seen of Williams, especially his closing speed and his tackling, but I'm guessing that he misses his assignments in the passing game too often to make McDermott play him over Milano. I would guess that Williams doesn't take the right drops, doesn't react quickly enough, etc. Milano, when he's healthy, is never out of position.

I agree completely with this. I think the reason is talent. The team concept is great so long as the talent differential doesn't get too large. So, when you're playing Hyde, Poyer, and White in their primes, you don't have the best player at his position (compared to the best players in the league), but you're very good. Benford in my mind already may be playing at a White level, but Rapp and Hamlin/Bishop are a couple notches below Poyer and Hyde. Other than Rousseau and maybe Oliver, the Bills aren't getting any high-level play out of their d-linemen. That's why I think next season will be special. I like Carter, and I think we'll see more of him. I think Bishop will make a step up, and the experience he's getting now will help a lot. Milano will return to form or be replaced. They'll probably get some help in the draft or free agency. When the Bills upgrade their talent next season, the team concept will make the defense special again.

For some people, when the Bills win, it's the players, and when they lose, it's the coaches. For some others, when the Bills win, well, they're supposed to, and when the Bills lose, it's because Beane didn't get the right players. I'd love to talk to McDermott about his philosophy. I think it's similar to but not as well developed as Belichick's. I think McDermott believes deeply that 11 athletes playing as a fully integrated team will beat 11 athletes, some of whom are more talented than his, who are less well integrated. I think we've seen it McDermott's defense for several years now. The Bills don't have a starter on defense, and haven't had a starter on defense for several years, who is the best player in the league at his position. Not Hyde, not Poyer, not White, not Rousseau, not Milano. But McDermott gets his players to integrate and as a team to blanket the field to prevent explosive plays and to make big stops at the goal line and on fourth and one or two. This season, he's got an offense like that. They don't have a dominant receiver, and they don't have a dominant running back. They have an excellent offensive line, but the talking heads talk about the Chiefs' interior linemen, not the Bills'. They rave about other offensive tackles, but not the Bills'. But the Bills have a fully integrated offense that adjusts over and over again to take advantage of gaps in the defense, wherever they are. What McDermott has done is pretty amazing. Next season, there will be a talent upgrade. The defense will improve, and the offense will, too. Pretty amazing, except McDermott cost the Bills the number one seed, so I guess he needs to go. 😄

Of course, McDermott gets no credit for the Bills win over the Chiefs.

Better than the Bengals? Is Denver's defense the reason?

Denver has the weakest QB and the weakest receivers. Easiest ride for the Bills' defense. All I really want is for Denver or Miami to keep the Bengals out.

I agree, but I give pretty much every rookie a first season pass. I think Bishop's playing better, but not what I expected. I was interested to see him in the second half today turning around and asking Rapp presnap what to do. I mean, it's a good thing he's asking, but at this point in the season I would have expected him to be beyond those questions. If he isn't starting next season, I'll be disappointed.

Von Miller continues to ramp up his game with another sack. And his face on the sideline was all business. Don't count him out.

It's old, but it never gets old.

I wasn't too upset about the game. I hated that they kept giving up third downs; it almost looked like the defense thought it was third and ten and gave up nine every time it was third and seven. I wasn't upset for several reasons. Divisional game. A lot of AFC east games a re like that - tough tests. I expected the Pats to be ready to play tough. The weather. Cold weather games are tough games, and they favor the run game. Bills don't have a real power run game. Bills didn't give up a lot of points. Second half, the Bills shut them down pretty well. Possibly a bit of a post-Lions let down. Bills never really opened up the offense. They looked like they wanted to run their basic plays, beat the Patriots just by being a better team, and get out of there. Bills were still trying out their backup defensive backs, and they were working on their linebacker issues, too. Now, of course, there are are all kinds of arguments about why maybe they should have come in with the pedal to the metal, why the defense is really flawed, etc., but I don't think we saw the team we'll see in a couple of weeks.

I'm not more down on Elam more than I was before. I thought he played pretty well. I like how he stays in touch with his man (no pun intended), and for the first time I saw him making solid plays with his body. However, it seemed pretty clear that he still has not learned to make proper plays on the ball as it arrives, and I suspect that by now he's a marked man for the officials. I thought the calls against him yesterday were the appropriate calls, because in each in each case he did interfere with the receiver's ability to catch the ball in ways that are not permitted by the rules. There may be hope for him, but I was discouraged.

Thanks for the story! Happy holidays to all!

I grew up in Buffalo. I've lived in the northeast for 50 years. Buffalo is definitely midwest. Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago, Milwaukee are essentially all the same city, and none of them is like Boston or Hartford or New York City.

I tend to think you're correct.

I don't spend much time or energy on chasing free agents. One guy makes a difference only once in a while. Like Miller. However, the thought that Beane might find a way to get Calais Campbell for the playoffs got my juices flowing. I don't know if he has anything left (and I don't mean to start that conversation - there's a thread where all that's been discussed), but sticking the Calais Campbell of a year ago into the middle of the Bills defensive line would change the whole picture. Mixing and matching Campbell, Groot, Jones, Oliver, Miller could create some great mismatches.