Shaw66

"people who are recently unemployed." You mean, like the Director of the FBI? Did the FBI bug OBD? I hope Dennison hasn't been talking to the Russians. Got it. Thanks. That's very interesting news. And you're right, Dennison has a year to show McD and B that his judgment was correct. It was interesting reading about Dennison when the Bills hired him. Seems like a pretty deep thinker for a football coach.

So, Hokie, is this just a theory you have, or do you have some inside knowledge that tells you this? I've wondered about Dennison's role in all this. Frankly, if that's true, I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing. After all, Chan Gailey really wanted to work with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Everyone can make mistakes. Still, regardless of how we got here, here we are. Tyrod is almost certainly the starter in 2017. I DO feel good that his offensive coordinator is someone who has worked with him before, someone who is installing the system they worked on together. That's a plus for Taylor, and therefore it's a plus for the Bills.

I don't trust anything from the media unless (1) I'm watching video of someone who has direct knowledge of what he's talking about or (2) I'm reading something with quotation marks, quoting someone with direct knowledge of what he's talking about. Everything else i get from the media is suspect.

this is an interesting comment. Last season the Chiefs went to a quick-release game, much more than they ever had in earlier years. Smith was getting the ball out incredibly quickly. Three significant things happened. 1. Smith's rushing yards dropped dramatically. For the previous three years, he'd been one of the leading rushers among QBs. In 2016 he fell way back into the pack. 2. His sacks dropped way down. Just like Taylor, he'd run around back there and extend plays, which has a benefit and a problem. Extended plays often lead to gains you wouldn't otherwise get. They also lead to sacks you wouldn't otherwise get. 3. The Chiefs' offense didn't get markedly better or worse. For the past several years they haven't gained a lot of yards, and that didn't change. But they were generally a pretty good scoring offense, and they were in 2016. Not stellar, but okay. So if your prediction is correct, Taylor gets the ball out quicker, it may be that the offense won't get worse, but it also might not get better. This is one of those rat holes that transplant started us down in the beginning of this thread. It's very hard to correlate wins with min-stats, like how quickly someone throws the ball. The game is much too complicated to reduce to concepts like that. However, as for Taylor personally, he becomes a much less valuable guy if you take away his legs. Without his legs, he's VERY ordinary.

Dave - I think your backup scenario IS the real chance of getting caught in QB purgatory again. Taylor gets injured or is underperforming and halfway through the season Peterman becomes the starter. He's apparently a cerebral guy, good decision maker, etc. If the Bills are running a short-passing offense, he could have a lot of success early (not unlike Trent Edwards). The Bills could get all excited about the guy and used their two first rounders to shore up other positions. Then we'd all have to wait and see whether Peterman becomes Edwards or Montana. Percentage. He's been retired for years. Took the guaranteed money.

Sure. But he's a pretty good football fan. And he didn't care much about the details. He negotiated contracts his whole deal, and his point of view is that he always can get more if you give him another chance to negotiate. He wants his guys to be free agents every year. Worst thing that can happen is signing your guy to a long-term deal that undervalues him. If you can negotiate every year, your guy is never undervalued.

That's certainly possible. But that doesn't have anything to do with Taylor. That just means the Bills picked the wrong head coach - again. I really don't think that's too likely though. If everything we've seen in the past couple of months is largely McDermott's doing, he isn't going to be afraid to pull the trigger. In particular, it looks like they really want the trade down from 10, which means they were setting themselves up to take a QB if they need one or want one. If McDermott orchestrated that I doubt he gets cold feet when the time comes to go after a QB. As for Taylor, objectively, if he has a good year (my measure would be passer rating above 94, they ought to keep him. If he's below 88, that'll be two mediocre seasons in a row and it's time to move on. In between, which certainly is possible, we'll see. If McDermott already has his heart said on a new guy, Taylor will be gone, or at least on the bench schooling the new guy. If McDermott is open minded, it'll depend on his view of why Tyrod wasn't good enough and whether it can be remedied.

But all the running QBs who came before them didn't have career ending injuries. They slowed down and became less effective runners, but they didn't get knocked out of their careers. And Taylor was a lot smarter about taking chances last season. So I don't think injury is an unusually big risk.

I think you're right. They would have been looking for the extra year they got. But once they decided to renegotiate, getting more cap room became an objective, for sure. Thanks. But the analysis gets complicated because Taylor gave back guaranteed money. Who does that? Some people say it's evidence that the Bills had him over a barrel. He was worried that he would get cut and no one else would pay him more than a couple million to be a backup. I don't believe that for a minute. Most of the real experts - retired QBs turned commentators, were saying Taylor is a legitimate starter in the NFL. His numbers certainly back up that notion. Not great, but better than backups and better than at least a half dozen to a dozen 2016 starters. Someone would pay him if the Bills didn't want him (without even looking, the Bears, Texans and Jets would have been in the bidding. Probably the Broncos. But beyond that, McDermott would have wanted no part of going into his first season as a head coach with no quarterback. Where was he going to get anyone with productivity like Taylor? Taylor was willing to give up some guaranteed money not because he was afraid he'd be cut and never get a good job again. He gave up guaranteed money so that he could be a free agent again. He said to the Bills "if you aren't willing to invest in me, I'm not willing to invest in you. You want help on the contract, you give me a way to get out. I can make my money someplace else."

I think the Bills wanted (1) to be able to see another year of Tyrod before committing long-term and (2) cap relief. They got what they wanted. They had to pay for it. They paid by giving Taylor the opportunity to force a new deal on the Bills after 2018. They didn't go into the negotiation intending to do that. It's something Taylor asked for. The Bills would rather have had the old deal with just an extra year to decide whether to cut him. Taylor would have been a fool to give them that. As I've said all along, both sides got what they viewed were improvements over the old deal.

Way off the original topic, but since this has turned into a general Tyrod discussion, something else occurred to me. In these discussions about the contract, some people often say a QB wants a long-term deal because you never know when you might get injured and no longer be able to play. I was thinking about that. How many QBs (other than those near the end of their careers, like Romo) have their careers ended by injury? Not many, I think. We may be seeing it happen to Bridgewater. RG III had his career changed by injury, and maybe ended. That guy who got all the concussions who the Bills brought in to start ahead of Manuel. The point is that although it's possible that a QB will have a career ending injury, just like any position player, it doesn't happen all that often. I think that's another reason why low-priced long-term deals aren't very attractive to players. They know that they're likely to be able to play out their careers. They have good reason to believe that they have plenty of pay days ahead of them.

I agree that we won't get anywhere, but you are misquoting yourself. You didn't say I almost make it seem as if. You said my friend was apparently absolutely certain Tyrod go the deal he wanted. The point was that you're off base saying ANYTHING about the deal Tyrod wanted. The point is that he got a better deal than he had.

No. He's talking about my friend the agent when he says Shaw's guy. But Crusher, you seriously misquote. I didn't say Tyrod got the deal he wanted. He wants $75 million guaranteed. What I said is that he liked the deal he got better than the deal he gave up. His new deal is better than the old deal because his upside is much better and isn't downside is relatively not so bad.

You guys miss the point of how these deals are negotiated. The thing of most importance to the players is guaranteed money. If you don't have guaranteed money, nothing else matters much. Job security is important to schleps like us. If you have guaranteed money, you don't care about job security. If you lose your job, you still have the money. In 2016 Tyrod wasn't looking for a long-term contract. Players don't want long-term contracts. They want guaranteed money, and that's what Tyrod was looking for in 2016. He got it, but to get the guarantee he had to give the Bills a long-term deal. Yes guys sign long-term deals, but they sign them for the money, not the long terms. All of the reported negotiations in sports always go the same way - the player wants a lot of money, guaranteed, and he wants it now. The team wants the long term. The negotiation is over how much money for how long. From the player's point of view, he wants the shortest deal possible with the most guaranteed money. If he has guaranteed money and short deal, he has the opportunity to negotiate another deal. Once Taylor got guaranteed money in 2016, he was set for life. It wasn't a ton of money, but enough be set for life. The problem was, it was a long-term deal. He didn't have any way to make any more money in his prime. When the Bills came to him this year, he had his opportunity. He had one good payday in 2016, and Bills were offering him another nice payday for 2017 AND the possibility of negotiating a new deal in a year or two. Yes, he took less money than his old contract gave him, but he still had a lot of guaranteed money. Job security means absolutely nothing to the players. Money is what matters. Taylor gave up some guaranteed money for the opportunity to make a lot more. The Bills weren't offering hundreds of millions. Yes, you sign long term deals when you're getting franchise player money. That's the only to get BIG guaranteed money. Taylor wants BIG guaranteed money. The only way to get is to negotiate it for it when you're in your prime. The opportunity to do that is why he gave up small guaranteed money.

I didn't say Tyrod got the better end of the deal. As my last post says, both sides got what they wanted. What I'm saying is that he was forced to take a pay cut. He wasn't. He took the new deal because he liked it better than the old deal. Otherwise, he wouldn't have taken it. One thing I think about Tyrod is that he has a chip on his shoulder. He has a lot of confidence in himself and he isn't going to tolerate people who don't have confidence in him. I think he was not afraid, at all, of being cut. He knew he'd get a job someplace else, a job starting, and he knew he'd make good money - $10 million a year or more. Teams would have been bidding for him. So when the Bills came to him and said they wanted to renegotiate, he was perfectly happy to talk. But he wasn't going to leave the room with a deal that he liked less than the deal he already had. He likes his current deal more. And the reason is that he can become a free agent in two years. He isn't afraid of being unemployed. All true. I will say that I trust my guy. I trust him because I've known him a very long time, and because he operated for a long time at the highest levels of the sports agent world. He represented some of the very biggest names in the sports world. He negotiated as many big-money deals as almost any agent you can name. So when he tells me what he'd tell his client in situations like this, I listen. No one else has to listen, but I do.

I wouldn't take that bet. My sense is that McD is a pretty strong minded guy, and I think either you're right or he thinks he can make something of Taylor. I have no idea at all which it might be. Certainly the trade out of #10 to get another first next year is consistent with the idea that he wants to get his own QB. Also Taylor's new contract is consistent with that idea. His view might have been "give me Taylor for 2017; he's better than anyone else I'll have, and that will give me a year to get settled into the job, get my bearings and get ready to make the team the way I really want it. If Taylor has a big year, I'll deal with it. If he doesn't, I'm getting the QB I want in 2018." On the other hand, his view might be what I've been saying - he's not sure about Taylor and he wants flexibility. That is, he may be perfectly happy to have Taylor as his QB if Taylor produces the way McD wants. We'll see. In any case, I'm reasonably happy about where the Bills are right now.

I agree with all of that. But if Taylor has a good year in 2017, they're going to be writing Taylor a big check in 2018 to keep him from becoming a free agent. I find the whole thing really interesting, because you can see the Bills changing the deal from year to year as they continually reevaluate their cap situation, their view of Taylor, and their need for flexibility. In the case of Watkins, as I said, I think they made a choice of what year they wanted to franchise him if that becomes necessary. In Taylor's case, because they weren't sure about him, they gave up a very favorable long-term deal to get some short-term cap relief and to get the opportunity to cut him at lower cost. Taylor, on the other hand, gave up his future by signing a long-term deal, but captured guaranteed money. Then he agreed to reduce his guarantee to get back his freedom to negotiate for a better deal. If Taylor plays well in 2017, it will cost the Bills $20-$30 million more over the next four seasons than if they'd just exercised the option under the old deal. If he plays poorly and the Bills cut him, the Bills will save $10-$20 million of cash and $10 million of cap space. Taylor, of course, isn't concerned about cap space; if he has a lousy 2017 and gets cut, all he'll think about is the $10-$20 million in cash he gave up. But as I've always said, he has a 5-7 year future in the league almost regardless of what happens in 2017, and he'll make $20 million or more over that period. So I continue to think that the upside of the new deal was more valuable to Taylor than the downside, in terms of cash. As people have said, Taylor is willing to bet on himself. For the Bills, they're willing to live with the possibility that they might have to write a big check to keep Taylor; you deal with those kinds of problems as they come along. The Bills wanted the option to keep him for 2017 and reconsider him in a year. They got what they wanted, and Taylor got what he wanted.

I don't think either of those is the right list to look at. The right list (I don't know how to generate it by QB alone) is here: https://overthecap.com/contracts Sort that list by average amount guaranteed per year. That's what really matters - if it isn't guaranteed, it's funny money. If you go down that list you'll see that Tyrod is in fact about the lowest average guaranteed money per year of any QB not on his rookie contract. However, he is in the same ballpark with Wilson, Newton, Ryan, Roethlisberger and Manning. So although he's at the low end, he's in pretty good company. Thanks. You're right about the numbers. That DOES make it a little more likely that he'll be cut. I still think it's quite likely they keep him, for the reason I gave. If they cut him, it's because they have someone who looks like a top notch starter ahead of him. There are only two real candidates for that job: Peterman and a 2018 first round rookie. If you're going to start you 2018 first round rookie, you're almost certainly going to want a veteran backup, which means you're writing a $5 million check to get him. You're not going to go with the rookie and Peterman as a backup. I mean, it's certainly possible, but not likely. If you're going with Peterman as the starter, unless he started for most of 2017, you don't know what you have with him, either, so again you'll want a veteran backup. Still, you're right. It's more likely that the Bills will cut him than I said.

Dave's right. I don't know if Tyrod was ever unwilling to restructure, but if he was unwilling to restructure, do you really think he came to the table because the Bills were threatening to sign Brian Hoyer? Are you kidding? Cleveland needed a QB and they let Hoyer go. Houston needed a QB and they let Hoyer go. Chicago needed a QB and they let Hoyer go. Three teams desperate for QBs, three teams had him on the roster and actually let him START, and all three teams let him walk away. Taylor is clearly and unequivocally better than Hoyer, everyone knows that, and Taylor knows that. Don't suggest that Taylor was quaking in his boots that he get cut to make room for Brian Hoyer. The Bills were asking to renegotiate, not Taylor. The side that asks to renegotiate wants something, so that's the team that had to give up something to get what they wanted. I'll say it again. I know a guy who knows 100 times more about this than you or I, and he told unequivocally that Taylor got what he wanted out of this deal. This was a good deal for Taylor, better than the deal he had last year. Unequivocally. It's very simple. Follow the option. Who had the option to make Taylor a free agent. Taylor had it in 2016. The Bills didn't like that, so they wrote Taylor a contract with a nice guarantee to get the option back. The Bills paid for the option. Then in 2017 they didn't want to decide; they wanted the option to be extended for a year. The Bills paid to extend the option for a year. What did they pay? They gave Taylor the option too. They gave Taylor his freedom.

He wasn't going to get cut. There was no way the Bills were cutting him. The Bills had NO quarterback for 2017, and as we've now seen, they didn't want to draft one this year. You think McDermott wanted to coach his rookie year as HC with NO quarterback? No way. What the Bills did was a much smarter way to hedge their bets on Taylor. They get to see Taylor for a year or two more AND they set themselves up to take a QB next season if they believe they need one. They did the same thing with Taylor that they did with Watkins - they shortened his deal. And as I think about it, that's why they didn't extend Watkins. If they extended him, Watkins and Taylor would have become free agents the same year, and the Bills could franchise only one of them. The way they did it, they can franchise Watkins next year and, if Taylor really comes of age, they can franchise him the following year. But in any case, Taylor wasn't afraid of being cut. On his two-year body of work, he would have ended up being the starter somewhere - Chicago, Houston, Denver, the Jets. He would have been the best option, by far, available to several teams. He'd have gotten $20-$30 million guaranteed somewhere, because there would have been a bidding war.

You're correct. However, with the dead cap money, it's almost a certainty that the Bills will keep Taylor for the next two years. The only way the Bills would cut Taylor before the 2018 season would be if they found a great starter AND a better backup than Taylor this year. There's a good chance that Taylor will be the best player to start in 2018, and it's a virtual certainty that he'll be the best possible backup. If someone beats out Taylor this year, it means he's better than Taylor, and it also means the Bills must be pretty good. If theyre good, then going into 2018, they'll want a good backup. It'll cost them at least a few million to get a good backup. The better move would be to keep Taylor - he'll have experience in the system, he'll be better than any backup they can get, and he won't cost that much more money for one year. So I think it's extremely unlikely that Taylor won't be on the team in 2018. Possible, but not likely. Plus, Taylor doesn't care. If he gets cut early in 2018, it will be because Peterman became a star, and that won't hurt Taylor's marketability. Look at Romo. If Romo were five years younger and not such a health unknown, he wouldn't be viewed as damaged goods. Taylor wouldn't be, either. He wouldn't be viewed as a star like Romo, but he'd be viewed as a good starter who came available.

No. That's where you're wrong. Players in their prime don't want long-term deals unless they are for the most money they can get. That's why guys like Zach Brown come into Buffalo and ask for one-year deals. The Bills wanted him for a longer-term, but they weren't offering enough money to make it worthwhile. Players AGREE to long-term deals; they don't ask for them. They ASK for guaranteed money. That's what the negotiations are about - long-term vs. guaranteed money. When a player is worth franchise-tag money, he takes a long-term deal; otherwise, he wants short-term. In 2015 Taylor signed a contract that paid him peanuts and allowed him to be a free agent in two years. In 2016 he signed a contract that guaranteed him something close to $50 million and tied him up through 2021. In 2017 he signed a contract that gave back $10 million of the guarantee and allows him to be a free agent after 2018. He got a better deal each year. If he could have gotten the 2017 deal in 2016 he would have taken it in a heartbeat. As you say, he's a running quarterback. He may have a shorter period of peak years. He would have passed his peak as a runner by 2022. He will still be in his prime as a runner in 2018. When you think about it, it's obvious. If a team isn't offering franchise money, short-term deals are better. Then why did Tyrod sign the 2016 deal? Because the Bills weren't offering a short-term deal, but they WERE offering attractive guaranteed money.

Of course it is. He gave up a $40 million guarantee and got a $30 million guarantee. He gave back $10 million. So play it out. Let's say Taylor never has another season like 2015. If so, the Bills cut him as soon as they can, he gets his $40 million guaranteed and nothing more under his old deal. Under his new deal he gets $30 million. He immediately gets a job somewhere as a backup for $5 million, or as a starter for $10 million. Lots of guys bounce around the league like that. So let's say that he earns $5 million a year for 5 years. That's $25 million. If he kept his old deal, he'd be stuck on the Bills for an extra year as a backup (if he's creating dead cap, the Bills will keep him as a backup instead of cutting him and having to sign another QB). Then he'll have 4 years left at $5 million. So that's $30 million (the $10 guaranteed from the Bills and $20 million over four years. So Taylor gave up something like $5 million to renegotiate, assuming he never establishes himself as a starter. Now assume he DOES establish himself as a starter. If he does, he'll make $5 to $10 million a year more with his new deal. The downside of giving back the $10 million isn't nearly as big as the upside of being a free agent after 2018. Listen to the analysts. They pretty much ALL say that Taylor is a serviceable starter. They pretty much all say he isn't a star. If he's a serviceable starter, he's going to make decent money until he's 35, and he's certainly going to make backup money until then. I'm sort of like that. That's why I called my friend the agent. I thought I'd figured out why Tyrod signed his new deal, but I wasn't sure. My friend is an expert. He confirmed it. Being a free agent is incredibly valuable. I really want to know what the coaches think about a lot of these things. The question I really wanted to ask a few years ago was when Tuel threw that interception (was it Tuel?) on the goal line while Stevie was wide open in the end zone. 100-yard pick six turned a win into a loss. I'm sure that happened because Stevie didn't do his job, but no one would ever say it. Coaches aren't going to dump on their players like that.

When you get BIG money, you take the long-term deal. You want a good example. Look at Russell Wilson on his rookie deal. That's EXACTLY what every team wants and every play doesn't - an under-priced long-term contract. If you're a player, once you sign the long-term deal, that's it. You're stuck with it. Why'd Taylor sign his? Because he hadn't made any money yet, and $40 or $50 million guaranteed was $40 or $50 million more than he'd ever seen his life. He was willing to give up his freedom to get that relatively big deal. A year later the Bills came back to him and said to him "we need to change the deal. We need another year to look at you." Taylor said "it'll cost you. If you want another year, I want my freedom back." Eventually the Bills said "we'll give you your freedom back, but we won't guarantee you as much money." It IS a no brainer. You're absolutely right. That data exists, but the only people who have it are the coaches. The Bills coaches know the answer to the questions debated here all the time: Does Taylor miss reads and therefore miss open receivers? Does Taylor release the ball late? Does Taylor hold the ball too long? Does he do any of things more than QBs on other teams do? Do we care? All questions the coaches can answer and we cannot.

Really, that's all? Now I understand why they did it. Bills knew they would have to make a decision on Sammy, one way or the other, sooner or later. They decided they could risk the $2 million to be free to cut ties early if they want to.