Shaw66

The Rockpile Review – by Shaw66 Can’t Win Without Offense The Bills played their first playoff game in 17 years on Sunday and lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars 10-3. It wasn’t the outcome any Bills fans wanted, but it wasn’t really surprising. The same team that somehow made it to the playoffs showed up in Jacksonville, struggled to move the football and score points, and lost. The oft-quoted phrase is “moral victories are for losers.” Yes, the Bills lost, but I’ll take the moral victory that was the 2017 season. It was, all things considered, about as good a season as anyone could hope for. New head coach survives his rookie season, establishes his relationship with his players, teaches his system, cleans out the high-priced players that don’t fit, wins nine games, goes to the playoffs. Ask any Bills fan on July 1, 2017 if he’d settle for that and the answer would have been “Hell, yeah!” So the Bills lost in the first round of the playoffs, but the season was a win. I like what I’ve been seeing. I really like the discipline the team plays with. Everyone knows his assignment and does it. The defense, particularly, is disciplined. Everyone is in position, each makes tackles, and from time to time one or another has an opportunity to make a big play. They just look good. The offense, of course, isn’t so good, but the offensive players are disciplined, too. They go where they’re supposed to go, and they do their best to make plays. They aren’t effective, but they look like they‘re executing what they’ve been taught. The team is focused. They play with emotion. They are prepared for whatever the game gives them. Next season, the Bills will add talent on both sides of the ball. They have the five picks in the first three rounds, and they likely will add some free agents. They will be players Beane thinks fit McDermott’s program, and McDermott showed this season that he can get players up to speed pretty quickly. Next man up doesn’t mean that the quality of play falls off. So I’m taking the moral victory and celebrating the season. It’s not so easy to celebrate the game. But there’s a lot to talk about: 1. The Bills simply failed to make the plays that were there to be made. Deonte Thompson drops an easy completion. Thompson holds on McCoy’s long run. Clay steps out of bounds. Didn’t look like coaching. Looked like execution. Better players will execute better. 2. Taylor looked like a QB who needs to be replaced. He should be avoiding those sacks, but he consistently misjudges those situations. Escape earlier, throw it away, find a receiver and deliver the ball. Do something better than taking the sack. After the game Bortles said it was really difficult throwing in that wind. Maybe that explains some of Taylor’s troubles. All I know is that the Saints and Panthers looked a LOT different, with Newton and Brees firing the ball all over the field, on the money, into tight windows. And, by the way, receivers kept catching them. Taylor wasn’t throwing balls like that, and the ones he threw, his receivers weren’t catching. Can’t win ball games without a passing game, and the Bills need to find one. Taylor made a lot of good plays. Just not enough. Too many games, not enough plays. Taylor took a brutal hit to the ground on a clean play. I hope he’s okay. 3. For the last time in the 2017, a nod to LeSean McCoy. The dude can carry the ball, and I love that about him, but it’s his heart that makes him special. The guy flat out wants it. I don’t see Bills medical reports, but last week it sure looked like McCoy was down for the season. His pride, his commitment to his teammates, something brought him back for one more game. Some broadcaster said McCoy has more goals, and one of those is to finish his career in Buffalo. I hope so, and I hope he gets to more playoff games. Guy like that deserves it. 4. The Bills defense showed up. For sure. Shut down one of the best running games in the league. They gave up a lot of rushing yards, but more than half of the yards were Bortles scrambles. They forced Bortles to throw, and he couldn’t do that. In some ways, the difference in the game was that Jacksonville was better prepared to stop Taylor scrambling than Buffalo was prepared to stop Bortles. 5. Lorenzo Alexander made some big plays. Tackle on the goal line was spectacular. 6. Okay. Speaking of the goal line, I usually defend play calling, but come on, man! First and goal from the one, a team that prides itself on running the ball, and the Bills throw it? Pound it, once any way. 7. Kelvin Benjamin hasn’t looked anything like the guy I saw a couple of years ago. I hope that with surgery and some work with the Bills’ starting QB next season he proves to be what he once was. 8. Peterman didn’t look like next season’s starter. He was in trouble from the start. If he has a future, he needs time to learn and develop. He’ll be better next season, but how much better remains to be seen. 9. Replay officials looked at the Jacksonville TD for about one tenth as long as they looked at Benjamin’s TD a couple of weeks ago. Koyack briefly juggled the ball before he secured it, and in the instant he juggled it, his foot may have come off the ground. Somehow, the standards for reviewing TDs have changed in the last two weeks. Still, if you can’t score a TD, you don’t deserve to win. 10. The Bills lost, but they went down fighting. They earned respect this season and Sunday afternoon. And they will build on it. Movin’ on. A few weeks to decompress, then free agency, then the draft. A lot of work to be done at One Bills Drive, and if the men and women there know what they’re doing, there’s going to be more respect in the coming years. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

That's great! Thanks.

Not so clever if Mahomes is a franchise QB.

Cousins is unexciting, but I think he's the kind of guy that McDermott would like. He seems smart, coachable, good size. He'll make plays for you every game. On his best days, he doesn't look like Peyton or Brees at his best, but he doesn't have many truly bad days. He's reliable and probably good enough to win with. I'd bet that he reads the field and makes decisions in the passing game better than Taylor. He'll cost a lot, but I'd spend it.

I don't agree. When you don't have a QB, you have to be taking a shot at a new one every year. That's how we got stuck with Manuel - the Bills had no choice but to take the best QB available. During those two decades, if I have it right, the Bills drafted TWO QBs in the first round - Losman and Manuel. Think about that - they didn't have a QB and only twice in 20 years did they take one in the first round. In those two decades, in the second and third rounds they've taken one more - Trent Edwards in the third. So, at the most important position on the team, a position of immense need, in twenty years the Bills have drafted exactly three guys (other than hopeless longshots in the later rounds). They didn't go after any of the - admittedly few - free agents, like Brees. Beyond that, needing a QB, they've passed on Wilson, Prescott, Watson, Mahomes, Bridgewater, Tannehill (assuming they could have traded up two spots). There probably are a few I'm missing. Waiting and waiting for the right QB to come along is NOT the answer. When it's your turn to pick, find a guy who has whatever you think are the most important attributes - size, arm strength, brains, intangibles, whatever - and take him. If he busts, take another one next year. You're never going to have a QB if you don't draft one.

Most reasonable people agree that it would be nice to stay with Taylor until a better option appears, and that's what people are generally saying. There are a few who say get rid of Taylor so he isn't occupying space; the longer you keep him, the longer you're delaying getting the right guy. I don't agree with that philosophy, but I understand it. The real question is how aggressive should they be going after the next guy? Peterman is a possibility, but they need another, and probably a better, option. Meanie and I agree there. I don't see the college QB who looks like he's worth trading up for, but I don't know the talent or, really, what to look for. I think they should take the first QB they see who appears to offer value at the place where the Bills are picking, and in fact be aggressive about it. That is, if you see a guy like Garoppolo, a second round pick with promise, you might go after him late in the first (if he measures up). The point is that they have to be committed enough to overdraft a guy. They can't afford to do what they did last season - wait and wait and then because he looks like a bargain, take Peterman. In other words, and I know people will gag on this, they have to be willing to do what Donahoe did - reach for Losman. Now, Donahoe's problem was that he traded up and reached, which I think is a mistake. If you're going to reach, which means you're going to take a gamble, you don't put extra chips on the table. You simply reach at the place where you're picking. They have five picks in the first three rounds. I think they should draft five guys, and one of those should be a QB.

Those numbers are indicative of the impact of coaching and philosophy, not QB play.

My recollection of a post here earlier in the year was that the Bills ran more outside zone in 2016, Inside,noutside,nis there any doubt that Lynn was a more creative OC than Dennison?

I think it's quite simple. The Bills offense isn't very good for a lot of reasons. It could be made better with a variety of changes that include aspects of coaching and personnel. However, if you're going to change one thing to get the biggest impact, it would be changing the QB. A better QB would make the offense a lot better. A worse QB would make it a lot worse.

Thanks but you'd be disappointed.

I always think we get in trouble looking at data like this. If third down conversions were the best indicator of qb performance it would be used instead of the passer rating or the qbr. Then when you slice it more and start talking about passing with a lead or while trailing, you get into hot water. If Taylor didn't pass much with a lead it meant he was passing when he was trailing. Since he didn't pass much at all and since he didn't pass with a lead, it means a lot of his passes were trailing in the 4th quarter. (Bills usually passed only when they needed to.) In the 4th quarter he saw prevent defense, which is a defense that gives up first downs in exchange for running the clock. So it makes sense that a qb whose passes come disproportionately late in games he's losing is going to convert third downs. Two years ago, people complained that despite a great rating, Tyrod was bad because he didn't throw over the middle. It was statistical cherry picking. Since 2015 he's been much better throwing over the middle but his numbers are down. Passer rating is the best measure. The best qbs are in the top 10 in passer rating. Taylor was there in 2015, but he's been mired close to 20th since then. Look at 3rd down all you want. Taylor hasn't been good enough.

Nicely done. It's true. I'm in.

You can talk about luck, and the Bills certainly had some this year. But in other years people talked about the Bills were bad because they didn't know how to finish games. Well, they finished them this season. It wasn't always pretty, but they got the job done. I don't think that happened by accident. I think this team has better intangibles than many of the teams in the past, and you have to credit McD for that.

Yup. Didn't know he is a Bills fan.

Playifds, Bengals. Dalton. Tune in of you want to see it

It's fun to have really big games, week after week. How great would it be to win another? Playoffs in Foxboro! And I agree about getting the players to believe. McD told them to keep going, to work on what they're given, prepare, then play their hearts out, and they got rewarded.

I don't disagree that the Bills might miss the playoffs next year. This team isn't, in my opinion, very good. But I've become a big believer in McDermott. I've said it several times - I think he's like Belichick. He has a standard defense that he plays, and plays and plays, and he teaches his players to play it. The defense adjusts and gets more nuanced as the season goes by (just like Belichick's defense). He always has another player ready to step in, a player who knows his role, plays within himself, and isn't a liability (Milano, for example). Belichick's teams are like this. His mesage is about continuously improving. When this post season ends for him, he will be at work the next morning, reviewing the season, learning what he did wrong and what he could do better, and getting his coaches to do the same. So, for example, if the Bills draft four position players (other than QB) in the first two rounds, I expect they ALL will be playing significant minutes by the end of their rookie seasons, because McDermott teaches his guys what they need to know to play effectively. So I expect that four holes get filled in the first two rounds, and two or three more get filled in the later rounds. Add a free agent or two, and I expect this team will be a LOT more solid across the lineup. I'm pretty excited about the prospect for the future. McDermott isn't going to do the same things next season that he did this season. He'll change, his coaches will change, and his team will be even better fundamentally.

I think they're definitely in the market for a QB. I just don't think they should go to extraordinary measures to take one in this draft. That is I'm not trading up.

As I said, I think this is a misread of McDermott. He believes he, his coaches and his players all will improve next season. He will study the offense, work with Dennison to change things he didn't like, and work with Taylor unless Taylor's replacement comes along.

I really think people have to tune in to the McDermott way. He might replace Dennison, but I seriously doubt. He wanted Dennison, he brought him to Buffalo, and McDermott isn't going to be disloyal to him by cutting loose after a year. Loyalty is part of the McDermott way. But McDermott isn't going to accept less than excellence. He will spend a lot of time in the off-season, working with Dennison to improve the offense. That work will start right away if they think Taylor is the QB; it'll be delayed a bit if they think they're making a QB change. But whenever and however they do it, we're going to see a revised offense next season. The principles won't change, but the run-pass mix almost certainly will change. They'll be scheming for Benjamin, scheming for Thompson. It'll still be conservative, because McDermott has shown us that's who he is. It's foolish to think that what we saw this season is what we'll see next season. McDermott is about improvement, not status quo.

He wasn't questioning why Gase did it. The point is the Bills benefited from that playcalling. The game could have been closer.

To you and Badlands - I agree you have to take a QB. I think they should take a QB; I don't think they should trade picks to more up high into the first round. I've become a McDermott believer. I think he's like Belichick - not necessarily as good, but like him in that he installs solid offense and defense and teaches players to play it. We saw the result - a lot of solid execution on offense and defense. The draft is an opportunity to add a lot of talent to that system, to build on it. He's the kind of teacher who's going to work rookies into the lineup and get them to perform. Five picks in the first three rounds is a great opportunity. So I don't think the Bills should trade up. Now, I suppose if Beane is really sold on some guy and can make a deal, he should do it. But you've got to be really sold, because the Bills can be really good next season with upgrades at 4 or 5 positions (probably a free agent or two) and solid qb play from Taylor (or maybe Peterman). So I take a QB, but I take one who's available when I'm picking and looks like a good pick. That is, I'll use one of my top 4 or 5 picks on a QB. I should be able to get a better prospect than Peterman, by a good measure, and if that guy can take Taylor's job next year, fine. If he can't, he's my starter in 2019, or if Taylor takes a step up, I re-sign Taylor.

I say it all the time: take the points the game gives you. Points add up to points; taking chances often adds up to zilch.

Can we pin this so fans coming here today can see it?

Well, isn't that nice? Now let's beat them.