Shaw66
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Posts posted by Shaw66
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Not buying it. Limited physical skills have nothing to do with a decision to throw to a bracketed or triple covered receiver. His late game/4th quarter stats show a higher propensity for interceptions. I'll say it again.....He's a choke artist.
The NYJ 2015 season finale with the playoffs on the line against a depleted Bills' team with nothing to play for says everything you'd want to know about Fitz. He was horrendous in that game and especially so in the 4th quarter. CHOKER!
In earlier discussion in this thread I agreed with others that CHOKER is not the right characterization. Choking means he gets anxious in the moment and his anxiety keeps him from performing well. That isn't what happens to Fitz. He's a lousy decision maker in critical points in the game. He does what you say - throws into coverage, tries to make throws his arm can't, etc. Unless it's fourth down or the last play of the game, those decisions are bad because there's always another play, which is another opportunity for your team to make a play or the opponent to make a mistake.
Fitzy is a gunslinger, like Favre and Big Ben, but without the arm to back it up. In the old west, being a gunslinger and a lousy shot was a bad combination. Fitz is the football equivalent.
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His arm wouldn't be as big of a problem if his brain realized the limitations of it. So I do think that the mental aspect of his game is a big issue.
Yes, I agree. His problem always has been that he's asked his body to do things that it can't do, and that's bad decision making. That's mental.
We are in agreement on most things, most importantly that neither of us would want Fitz at the helm if the season or play-offs were on the line. He's a back-up at best. The only point I have a slight disagreement with you about are the importance of arm strength and and bad decisions. I agree that players shouldn't try to do "too much" but his limited physical skills impact his options and require him to take more chances, especially late in the game and in pressure situation when defenses take away the plays he's been successful on (bubble screen ect..) and limit his options. If Fitz were to "play it safe" we could have relived the Captain Checkdown/Trent Edwards days again. I would argue that his limited physical abilities require him to be more aggressive, therefore makes more mistakes, That has less to do with clutch/choke which would again be a mental issue.
I agree that when the game is on the line, you have to take more chances, but you have to be smart about the chances you take. Fitz was not smart about that. Down 4 points with 30 seconds to go, 3rd and 8, Fitz will take a chance and test his arm. That's a mistake. In that situation he has to play within himself, and if necessary, throw it away, because the smart play is to give up on the play and try again on fourth down. Fitz is like the basketball player who never saw a shot he didn't like.
And, to change the subject from the end of the game, I don't think I'll ever forget being in Met Life a few years ago when Fitz underthrew the same pass to Stevie up the left sideline, both for interceptions, the second to more or less end the game. Same play, same throw, same result. That's not good quarterbacking.
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Yet, Fitz set a Jets td record.
Also, Fitz played with the all UDFA all stars (Johnson, Nelson, Jackson, Jones). Tyrod got to play with the #4 overall pick and one of the best rbs in McCoy.
Fitz played in Buffalo with Lee Evans and Terrell Owens one season, with Lee Evans and Stevie Johnson a second season. Fitz played with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Don't try to make us believe that Taylor had better receivers.
Fitz had ONE season, ONE, where his passer rating was better than Taylor's career average passer rating.
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Looking at the coming waves of quarterback deals
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/06/22/looking-at-the-coming-waves-of-quarterback-deals/
They left out Taylor, who's in the first wave. Amazing how little respect he gets.
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with the defense we had we needed smart football. He had that for us. We could have limited his turnovers by playing him like we do Taylor. Both Taylor and Fitz are equal in quality.
History tainted fitz. It will taytay when he is gone, too.
No way in the world Taylor and Fitz are equal in quality. No way. Compare whatever stats you want, or simply think about this:
Taylor can throw deep, Ftiz can't.
Taylor is a SERIOUS running threat. Fitz isn't.
Taylor doesn't throw INTs. Fitz does.
The only thing Fitz does better than Taylor is grow hair on his face.
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If Taylor finishes in the top 10 and the Bills go to the playoffs in 2017, having redone Taylor's deal in March is going to cost the Bills $25 million.
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I've thought about this, and I think actually it's mental. I think Fitz plays well when he's the underdog and has a chip on his shoulder and something to prove or someone chasing him to start.
When he comes in as the established starter, he just doesn't play as well.
Teams really should have enough film on Fitz not to need a season to take the stuff he can do away from him.
Who's to say? We aren't psychologists and he isn't telling us what he thinking. But I don't agree it's mental. I think he knows exactly what he's doing
The fundamental problem, as others have said, his that he has a below-caliber arm. He just can't make some of the throws the game requires. That puts him at a disadvantage.
I also think the guy loves to play and he hates to lose, so he's always trying to make the play to win the game. It's just his nature. In that way I think he's very much like Favre. Favre made some horrible end-of-game decisions because he loved to play, he wanted to win and he thought he could do anything. Favre would have been better if he'd played more under control. The difference between Favre and Fitz was that Favre's arm bailed him out of more of his mistakes than Fitzy arm could save Fitzy. And that difference translated into this difference: the Packers didn't like Favre's decision making but tolerated it because it worked out well often enough that they were willing to live with the times bad decisions hurt them. Fitzy's teams suffer from his bad decision making because his arm isn't able to overcome enough of his bad decisions.
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His arm isn't strong, so he needs a full wind up to make NFL passes. And there are certain throws, like deep left sideline ball he has never been able to hit if his life depended upon it. I'd even gesture his decision making is suspect as he'd take some dumb shots at inopportune times.
You're right on the money. I loved the guy. I even believed when Gailey said he could be a top flite starter. But
If you have a weaker arm, you have to be better in all the other parts of the game. He had a weak arm and was a poor decision maker. That's a bad combination. And that's why his passer rating is in the low 80s.
this guy made tens of millions with his wedding ring and beard gimmick
And he earned it, too. There was one game when I think he started and really messed up his ankle or knee. He came out, barely able to walk. Backup came in and got dinged. Fitz came back and gutted it out. He just made up his mind that someone had to play, so he did it. Tough, tough dude. Never afraid to take hits.
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I don't the mistakes were mainly bad decisions, he takes higher risks but the bigger issue is the inability to fit the ball into tight spots or loosen up the defenses with the threat of the long ball
The QB's you mentioned all have much better arms than Fitzy, they make throws that would be interceptions if thrown by him. I can think of several late and close games where Fitzpatrick made some late plays win win games just as he has lost them. Choking generally refers to a player getting uptight, afraid to lose, playing scared. I don't think that describes Fitzy.
You're right about what choking is, and I think I agree that Fitz didn't choke. He just didn't deliver in the clutch.
You're wrong about his arm. It's a bad play when a player in any sport tries to make a play he can't make. If his arm isn't strong enough to make a throw, he shouldn't be making the throw. When Roethlisberger sees a throw he can't make, he doesn't throw it. That's good QB play.
When it's fourth down, or when there's no time left on the clock, I don't care if the QB throws an INT. But if you would have had another play but for the interception, it's a BAD play to throw an interception just because you aren't afraid to fail. If Fitzy couldn't make the throw, it's was a bad play to throw it.
Similarly, I don't care if Ben was on good teams and Fitzy was on bad teams. The games on the line in the fourth quarter, and every throw you make in the 4th quarter. The fact that throughout his career Fitz threw almost half his INTs in the fourth quarter means that when the game is on the line, he's giving the ball away and good QBs aren't.
So I agree he didn't choke in the true sense of the word. What Fitz isn't is clutch. He isn't clutch. He doesn't deliver when the game is on the line.
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I know TC hasn't even started but I've personally been blown away by our new Head coach. Just the way he communicates with the players, demands respect and has a certain intensity to him has really rejuvenated my hopes for this season and beyond.
His style, his swagger has been super impressive and it's a style that I feel we translate to the team playing to their full potential.
Rex Ryan had this team nowhere near their full potential and still had us contending for playoffs late in the season.
I've always felt this board has underrated the talent on this team , I think if we stay relatively healthy we can easily contend in the AFC , even with Rex. Now with what I believe will be a Massive upgrade at HC, I am anticipating this team to grab a Wild Card spot, again, I just have a strong feeling McDermott's coaching style, his teaching style and the way he communicates will translate extremely well, which will maximize the potential of a talented team. My gut tells me we won't be hiring a HC in a long long time...
I agree that the fans around here underrate the talent on the Bills.
As for McDermott, i truly believe nothing matters accept wins. I agree McDermott is doing the kind of things that I've seen successful coaches do before, but unsuccessful coaches also have done those things and not won.
Organization and attitude are among the things successful coaches need, but that isn't all. They need leadership, for example. We see McDermott attempting to to lead, but the only measure of leadership is whether the troops follow. We don't know that yet, can't know it.
Tactical excellence is necessary. Xs and Os. We have no idea how good McDermott, Dennison and other are at offensive play design. We don't even have a good idea about his defensive excellence, although we know he's coached a defense that had some good years.
We don't know about his game planning.
We don't know about his game management.
Those are probably just some of the things we don't know about him yet. I don't even know what the others are.
I'm excited for the new season to get underway, and I WANT McDermott to be the great young coach he could be, but we simply won't know what we're getting until we've seen a half dozen regular season games, maybe more. Frankly, he might need the entire first season to figure out what he's doing.
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I don't think it's fair to say he's a choker. He just doesn't have the physical talents (arm strength being the most obvious) to win in those big spots. Teams just start to take away the quick outs and stuff over the middle and he becomes a much easier QB to defend and makes more mistakes. Its more physical errors than the mental ones I associate with being a choker.
He's a choker. Or, if you don't like the word, let's just say he doesn't deliver in the clutch.
If Fitz had physical problems, his performance would be the same at different times during the game. But that isn't true in his case. When the game is on the line, he plays worse than the rest of the game.
Over his career, Fitz threw 29% of his passes in the fourth quarter or in overtime. He threw 30% of his TDs in the fourth quarter or overtime - that's what you'd expect. But Fitzy threw - get this - 45% of his INTs in the fourth quarter or overtime. That means he's making bad decisions with the football. If he had physical problems, his INTs would be or less the same as his attempts and TDs.
Compare him to a successful gunslinger - Roethlisberger. Like Fitzy, Ben takes risks. Difference is, Ben knows which risks to take. Over his career, Ben threw 25% of his passes in the fourth quarter and overtime, 27% of his TDs (a lot like Fitzy) but only 31% of his INTs. Late in the game, if you're losing, you're going to take some risks that result in more INTs. That's why Ben's INT rate is higher than his attempt rate. But the point is, Ben's INT rate is in the ballpark with his attempt rate. Fitz's isn't. Fitz takes bad bets with the ball in the fourth quarter - he always has.
Call that choking, call it bad decision making. Call it whatever you want. The data coincides with what we all think we've seen from him for years - Fitz takes his team out of games with ill-advised late-game throws.
I give Fitz credit - he plays with no fear. He isn't afraid to make mistakes. But when it's your last possession, down 5 pionts, it's third and 8 and you throw an INT, that's a really, really bad play. Fitz specializes in it.
He was an economics major.
When he came to Buffalo, he said that his junior year in college he was planning on getting a job on Wall Street. Then he started getting interest from the pros, and he unexpectedly ended up with a football career. Someone asked him then what he'd do when he retired. He said probably go home to Arizona and drink beer.
If he's made $54 million, he's probably paid $15 million in taxes, so he's around $40 million net. Probably spent a half million a year for the past 12 years. So he's saved maybe $30 million. Obviously, I don't talk to Fitz so I don't know what he's thinking, but I doubt he'll go to Wall Street. He's set for life (he can take $750,000 a year for life from his investments, and you can live a pretty good life on that). Why would he move his family to New York and plug himself into that rat race, just so he can earn another $1 million a year? He'll do something more than sit around and drink beer, but I'm betting it big-time investment banking is no longer in his future.
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okay.It doesn't matter. I only asked him how he thought Tyrod would have done if put in a similar situation as Fitz. You're putting way too much thought into gthis.
Go Bills!
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I very clearly said I think he's better.
On pure talent for the position I think Tyrod is better. I also think you're looking too deeply into what I said. Fitz was on a garbage team with very little quality talent and Tyrod has been fortunate enough to be in a better situation.
I never said otherwise...
So if your agree that Taylor is certainly better, what is the point of comparing receivers? Why did you raise that?
I'm not arguing with you, I just don't understand. Why does it matter what kind of receivers they were throwing to if you, too, agree that Taylor is better? The only think I can think of is that you mean that Taylor, adjusted for receivers, is only a little bit better. But even that doesn't make sense, because throwing to Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, Fitzpatrick STILL couldn't put up a better season than Taylor's worst.
I think many of us need to get together in person, with water balloons and have these exact topics as discussions.
The get together should be on a warm day and outside.
I like it. I want Taylor throwing with all his supporters, so everyone on the other team can get a first-hand look at how he throws over the middle and anticipates.
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So I dug a little deeper and ran some numbers with 26 QBs meeting qualifying numbers for minimum games played, TDs, etc. Exactly 9 of the 26 QBs met both of the 250+ YPG and 1.875 TD/G marks through passing alone (Brees, Ben, Brady, Palmer, Rivers, Luck, Eli, Rodgers, and Carr). Another 3 met both if you included Rushing stats (Cousins, Bortles, and Newton) for a total of 12 QBs to hit that criteria over the past 2 year span.
Here are Tyrod's ranks in the pertinent columns:
Passing YPG: 25th
Passing TD/G: 23rd
INT/G: 2nd
Total YPG: 22nd
Total TD/G: 19th
TD/TO: 2nd
And here's the stats, sorted by Total TD/G:
I think it's interesting that almost any way that reasonable people look at the data, there's always the same conclusion: there are about 10 very good qbs in the league. What you want is for your team to have one of the 10. If your QB is in the second ten, you probably go with him, try to build a really good defense, and keep your eyes open for an opportunity to upgrade your qb. If your QB isn't in the top 20, you're actively looking to replace him.
I thought the 260, 1.875 was a pretty good test, and what did you find? Nine guys.
Our question is whether in a more balanced offense Taylor can join that group. Interestingly, if you gross up Taylor to 1100 pass attempts over two seasons, which is the minimum for the 9, more or less, than Taylor is at 250 yards and 1.56.
So, just like we always come back to about 10 top QBs, we also always come back to Taylor looking like he's close to that group but not in it.
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The major problems with both Fitz and TT are that they fail late in games. One because he tried to do too much and couldn't put enough on some of those throws, while the other just isn't good enough to make the reads and anticipate throws when the defense is keyed in on obvious pass situations. Either that, or he's just afraid to take chances...neither is a good look.
For the first three quarters of a game I would have a hard time deciding which one I would rather have. They both stink late in games.
Crusher -
Do you have any data to back this up? I'm more interested in Taylor data than Fitz data - I'm pretty confident I know that Fitz failed late in games, but I'm not so sure you're correct about Taylor - either about failing or about the reason you think he failed.
Fitz's career passer rating is 80. He was high 80s low 90s only two seasons in his career; most seasons his passer rating was in the low 80s or below. So that means isn't a very effective QB, period. When you look at his splits, you can see he was particularly bad at the end of the game. Career 4th quarter rating - 71, below his career average generally - in other words, he's better in earlier quarters. Tied, or trailing with less than 2 or 4 minutes to play, his passer rating is regularly around 50. 85 in games that are tied, 73 when his team is trailing. So, compared to his own averages, he's played really poorly in the last few minutes of games when his team needed scores.
Taylor is different. He has a career passer rating of 92, which is a really solid number. When you look at his splits, you see that he performs about as well in end-of-game situations as at other times of the game. Fourth quarter rating is 88, a little below his average, but not bad. Tied with less than 4 minutes to go his rating is 149. Trailing, less than 2 or 4 minutes to go, he's around 85. 89 when tied, 90 when trailing. Not great, and maybe not good enough, but unquestionably better than Fitz. Not even the same league.
So unless you have other data, I don't see that there's much comparison between the two. The question, as I intimated, is whether what Taylor has done is good enough. So look at Matt Ryan, someone who probably isn't a hall of famer but definitely is a franchise qb. Passer rating over 93. Career splits: 4th quarter, 85. When tied or losing with less than 4 and 2 minutes to go, passer rating in the 40s and 60s! Tied generally 95, trailing generally 90. So compared to Matt Ryan, Tyrod looks like he's right there.
How about Aaron Rodgers? Career rating 104. Fourth quarter 102. Tied or trailing with 4 or 2 minutes left, 115, 94, 65, 76. 107 tied generally, 99 trailing. So Rodgers performs at the end of games about as he does at other times.
What does it all mean? It means, I think, that we'd certainly want Taylor to be better at the end of games, but he (and at least two inarguably good quarterbacks) perform about as well at the end of games as they do the other 55 minutes. That, in turn, means that Taylor's problem (if he has a problem) is that he isn't good enough generally, not that he isn't good enough at the end of the game.
The problem (which you are sure he has and I am not so sure) is that Taylor can't perform at relatively high levels (passer rating in mid-90s) if he's called on to throw 35 times a game regularly. I think you and I agree that the Bills need a QB who can perform at a high level throwing 35 times a game instead of 25. I really hope we see Taylor in that kind of offense this season, because that will tell us how good Taylor really is.
How good do you think Tyrod would be with historically bad defenses and a WR unit of Stevie Johnson, Donald Jones, David Nelson and Ruvell Martin?
I agree that TT is better than Fitz but he's also had a lot more to work with.
Stop. What are you saying? That Taylor is better or isn't? Are you saying Taylor throwing to those receivers would have gotten the same results, then why do you think Taylor is better.
The simple fact is that Taylor is unquestionably better than Fitzpatrick. Unquestionably. Taylor's WORST season was better than Fitzy's second BEST season. And Taylor can run. There's no comparison, regardless of receivers.
And, by the way, look at Taylor's receivers last season. Were they actually better than the four you named? Hard to say.
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That is 250 ypg and 1.875 TD passes per game.
That's what I'd love to see. 50 more yards per game and at minimum 2 TD passes is all I ask
250 - 265 club #'s 12 - 19
Russell Wilson, 264
Derek Carr, 262
Sam Bradford, 258
Jameis Winston, 256
Eli Manning, 252
Blake Bortles, 244
Trevor Siemian, 243
# 27
Tyrod Taylor, 202
i agree - that's what you'd like to see from your QB.
I'm anxious to see the offense this year. I want to know if 200 yards a game is all Taylor got because (a) that was the style of offense Rex wanted to play or (b) the offense was limited because the coaches didn't believe Taylor could maintain his efficiency if he was asked to get those extra 50 passing yards per game. I want to see the passing game opened up so we can see what Taylor's upside as a passer actually is.
Personally, I think Taylor can do it. I wasn't a fan when he was signed, because I thought he was a running quarterback. He's clearly more than that. He has a good arm, he can make all the throws. The question, as we all know, is whether he make those throws in a complicated offense that asks him to throw 35 or 40 times a game. I want to see him try, so we can learn the answer to that question.
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Not sure why having a 'change of pace' back is so important to some fans. You are saying Gillislee ran the same as McCoy, it seemed to work well. If something is working, why should we 'change the pace' - just keep running the ball the way you are.
Of course. But if you can't have a guy like Gillislee, a mediocre runner has an edge if he has a different style, because the defense is set up to stop McCoys style.
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Yes.
Not that's worth a long debate, but Orton was not better than Taylor. No way.
Statistically as passers they were about the same. Taylor added 500 yards rushing and 4 touchdowns.
Agreed, I think most people know he can't carry a team offensively on his shoulders. With some of the hits that he took last season he was extremely lucky not to miss time. This offense is very luck that we have the best RB in the NFL, because without Shady Taylor will be forced to pass the ball more with timing and accuracy.
The problem is that a lot of people don't agree with you. We haven't seen him play in an offense that asked him to pass like the best QBs do. Let's see what 2017 brings.
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No, pretty clear that Crusher actively roots against Taylor. You may not have been on BBMB, but several of his posts made it pretty obvious he seriously wanted Taylor to fail. What's more, he wanted it largely so he could rub it in people's faces. I don't think he roots for the team to lose, but he's pretty obviously rooting for Taylor to fail, probably without realizing how that would actually hurt the team he's rooting for.
I think Crusher is impossible to argue with, and I think he's way off base on a lot that he says. But I think you misrepresent his position on Taylor. I suspect he's said on multiple occasions that he'd be delighted if Taylor became a true franchise quarterback. But what he's also said is that he doesn't believe it's possible, and if it isn't possible, he wants Taylor to be gone sooner rather than later. He's afraid that if Taylor keeps having his average season - 200 yards per game and low 90s passer rating, management may decide to keep working with him. That, in Crusher's view, would be a bad thing, because the longer the Bills work with him, the more time they're wasting. I think that's different from rooting against Taylor, or at least I can understand and not be upset with the logic.
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I expect more from Tolbert than from Jonathan Williams.
I agree, but I hope we're both wrong. Much better for the Bills if Williams emerges.
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Who didn't already expect him to be the 2?
I expected it. The guy is, by all reports, a very good running back. People see the balling ball look and think he's a short-yardage guy. He isn't. He is a running back. He would be a great change of pace back; good speed but different style of runner, forcing the defense to prepare for two different running backs. I loved Gillislee, but he ran like McCoy and didn't force defenses to adjust.
The problem is whether he can hold up for 17 weeks as the back who spells McCoy for a series a two a couple of times a game.
Plus, if McCoy goes down, Tolbert is not the guy to carry the ball 15 times a game for more than a game or two. So there definitely has to be a another quality running back on the roster.
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...does TT possess the required gray matter to process/read the entire field in the scant 5 seconds allowed or not, to make this club's passing game a viable and dependable threat?...yes...or...no..?..
I think he does, but that of course is one of the important questions for Taylor and about 20 other starting quarterbacks in the league. QBs like Flacco, Eli, Carson Wentz, Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota, etc.
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He brought a smile to the face of all who knew him. He brought more joy to Bills fans than Jeremy Maclin would have.
He will be missed.
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A couple tweets from Fahey yesterday in response to the Maclin pursuit:
Taylor is recruiting Jeremy Maclin. 3.34% of Taylor's yards were created by receivers on off-target throws last year, 26th in league.
Taylor's yards per attempt jumped 0.74 when adjusted for WR mistakes/created plays, third highest in league
Since this thread is about Fahey and his stats, I'm going to say again that I take all this stuff with a grain of salt. Fahey is too young and uncredentialed for me to take him seriously. I mean, why in the world should I trust a stat he created that predicts what Taylor's yards per attempt would be if adjusted for wide receiver mistakes? That's a highly subjective and speculative stat, and I'm not inclined to put much stock in it until Fahey is a recognized expert.
Fahey is a guy creating content for sale. He's built himself a little niche by taking deep dives into stats, and he produces interesting stuff, interesting in that people like to read it and it helps Football Outsiders and others fill their pages with content. It doesn't mean it's right or insightful or anything.
Look up Bill James. He self-published his football stats for years, in virtual anonymity. He was nearly 40 before Billy Bean and Theo Epstein actually started using that data, that is, it took 15 years before people began to see that James's work had validity. And I have no doubt that James was just one of dozens of people out there concocting theories about and manipulating data to try to give greater insight into the game.
I don't see any coaches or GMs quoting Fahey data to justify decisions about their QBs. If they aren't quoting him and using his stats, that means they don't think those stats are meaningful or helpful in the pursuit of quarterbacking excellence. If coaches and GMs don't think what Fahey is doing is useful, why should I?
Is the recipes thread or did I make a wrong turn
Wrong turn. This thread is much less interesting, but it's all we're left with for a few weeks. (Unless, in a cost cutting move, the Packers release Aaron Rodgers. THAT would make the Maclin thread look like a coffee break.)
By the way, how do you like your coffee?
I'll say this for Fitzy
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
That IS why we loved him. He was us out there, an ordinary guy (except for that Harvard thing) trying to play with the pros and damn near making it. And I agree about Houston. In just the right circumstance, Fitz could have won.