Shaw66

I agree with this. He must have looked good in practice, because otherwise the decision makes absolutely no sense at all. I think he looked good in practice and then he did some good things against the Saints. But an NFL head coach is supposed to know the difference between taking reps in practice and playing under live fire when the game is on the line during the regular season. All kinds of guys look good in practice. I've always said I give McDermott credit for having no fear. However, he should have been able to see that his entire team had played poorly for two games, the entire team, and he should have been able to see at a minimum that whatever it was that Peterman was doing in practice wasn't so outstanding as to be likely to make a difference against the Chargers. And as I've thought about it talked about it with others, I think having made the decision he made, he now has closed the door on Taylor being his quarterback beyond 2018. Closing the door on any starter is a bad thing, and closing it on your quarterback when you have no one waiting in the wings is really bad. Maybe Peterman has a future, but we've seen Dak as a rookie step in for a starter and we've seen Watson as a rookie step in for a starter and we've seen Wentz as a rookie step in for a starter, and Peterman didn't look anything like those guys.

Makes sense. I sat behind the Bills bench for the Jets game, and I don't recall any animated discussions. McDermott and Frazier had a long talk, and it looked like McDermott did most of the talking, but it didn't look anything like a chewing out. They could have talking retirement planning. Most of the coach/player discussions, so far as I recall, seemed very much to be governed by the "process" - it looked like quiet, rational talk about nuances of the game. Like, "when the blocker knocks you down and steps on your chest as he's running downfield, get up run down the field after him so that you'll be ready to huddle up for the next play."

Well I'm desperate for a silver lining right about now, and I think you're right. However, the cloud's a whole lot darker than that, my friend.

One more thing about Taylor. Look at Carolina. Two years ago they lost in the Super Bowl. Last season, the coaches told Cam that they didn't want him running, they wanted him throwing from the pocket, etc. Their season went in the shitter, for a variety of reasons. In the off-season Cam told the coaches "you have let me play my game." They agreed. He's leading all QBs in rushing by a lot. And they're 7-3. Now, Taylor is third in the league among Qbs, which isn't shabby, with two fewer carries per game than Newton. What do you think would happen if Taylor went to his coaches and said "you have to let me play my game"? And, by the way, look at the list of QBs who have rushed for the most yards: Newton, Wilson, Taylor, Watson, Prescott, Wentz are the first six. Notice anything? They are among the most successful young QBs in the league. They are part of the new wave of mobile QBs. And, by the way, Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers regularly appeared near the top of the list in prior seasons. Now, maybe McDermott is going to look at the season Cam is having and open his eyes. Maybe he's going to fire Dennison and get some offensive genius out of some college to be the OC . Then maybe he's going to go to Taylor and say "I'm sorry. I've seen the light. We're opening it up and turning you loose. Please, please play 2018 with an open mind, and if you like what you see, tell me you'll be willing to stick around." If I'm Taylor, I say, "sure, I'll play with an open mind." In my head I'm thinking "the only way I'm staying past 2018 is if they write me a really big check, and they haven't been willing to do that yet." And if I'm Taylor I'm looking very carefully at the Bills' 2018 draft. They burn a high pick on a QB instead of an offensive tackle, I don't care what McDermott says, I'm moving on.

I know he's under contract. I said he's leaving as soon as he becomes a free agent. Since that is, I think, obvious, the Bills will start looking for his replacement in the upcoming draft, and drafting his replacement will seal the deal - Tyrod will leave after next season. And I think he'll ask for a trade or a release from his contract in the off-season. If he's going to be a free agent, he'd rather play next season where a team wants him and will build around him. Nineteen QBs have higher average salaries than Taylor, which means 12 starting QBs are making less than Taylor, a lot less. Some of the guys on that list, like Bradford and Glennon, are probably about to make a lot less money. Some of them, like Roethlisberger and Palmer and Manning, will retire soon. Plenty of teams will be looking for starting QBs, and they aren't all going to find them in the draft - there are probably 10 teams looking for a started and there may 2 or 3 starters in the draft. The Pats will be looking for Brady's replacement. Someone will sign Taylor. He's better off taking $10 million for 2018 someplace where he has a future than taking $15 in Buffalo where there's no future, and he probably can get better than $10 million. I'm not sure how you can tell on film the difference between a team quitting and team just not being good enough. Whether you've quit or aren't good enough, you're getting blocked just the same. The way you can tell is to compare some of the early wins to the last three games. My guess is that the Bills played over their heads early in the season, in part because their schemes were unknown to the opponents until they five or six weeks of film to look at and in part because McDermott had built the right attitude in their heads. However, it's hard to maintain that gung-ho attitude when you stop getting the outcomes you want, and I think that's what's happened. They've come back to earth, the good opposing coaches are outscheming them, and the Bills haven't been able to respond with schemes or talent.

Yes, but I think Marrone, Rex and McDermott make a good case study. I didn't like Marrone, but if he hadn't quit I would have said the Bills have to stick with him, because he seemed to be some things right. Rex was a seasoned head coach. Two years was more than enough to decide that he just didn't have it. These guys are young. They are relatively inexperienced, and experience is the best teacher. When the Pegulas signed him they were making a decision that they were willing to pay the price that goes along with giving them experiences, and that price is some mistakes. In Rex's case, mistakes are an indication that they made the wrong choice, because he had the experience and he was still making big mistakes. But in the case of McDermott, mistakes aren't necessarily evidence that he won't succeed, because the Pegulas knew, or should have known, that some mistakes were coming. If the Pegulas are going to make a coaching or GM change because these guys have made some mistakes in their first year on the job, then the problem with the Bills is the same place it's always been - with the ownership.

Completely different situation. He knew his coach was on the way out, and he might have guessed that his GM was on the way out, too. And he was benched not because of his play but because the Bills couldn't afford to have him get injured. Now he has a coach who's actively working to replace him. His new coach presumably led the effort to shorten his long-term deal, and his new coach benched him because he didn't like the results he was getting with Tyrod at QB. I've said for along time, and people didn't believe me, that Tyrod agreed to renegotiate his contract not because he was afraid he'd get cut but because he wanted to be a free agent again soon. Today he's glad he did. They can embrace him all they want, but it's too late. You only put up with your girlfriend sleeping with other guys before you go looking for someone else. Unless the Bills go deep into the playoffs with Taylor next season, and I can't see how that can happen, Taylor's leaving. He'll have 3-4 good years left in his career, he'll have either a crappy offensive line or a brand new offensive line, or both, he'll have a coach who wants him to run an offense that isn't suited to him, and he'll have a four-year history with the Bills of the coaches and front office first telling him we love you, then we hate, then we sort of love you, then we hate you, "no wait, we really love you and we mean it this time." Why would he sign up for more of that.

I haven't been saying for it years, but you're absolutely right about this group. The Pegulas did their homework and bet on two young guys. Tthey had to know (I hope someone told them) that if they were going to bet on two young guys, they would have to ride with that bet for several years, because some of the ride in the early years was going to be bumpy. Well, it's gotten bumpy, but you can't get off the bus right now. You bought these guys for their potential, and you have to have the patience to see how they develop. To change the metaphor, you can't plant seeds and then plow up the field because the first thing that came up was a weed.

Put yourself in Taylor's shoes and think about it. You're at your best in the passing offense when you're scrambling and when you're encouraged to run the ball when the opportunity arises. You have a head coach who encourages you to play that way. You played so well your first season that the Bills gave you a long-term contract. After your second season, with a new head coach, the Bills say they're not so sure and renegotiate so they can get out of the long-term deal. Then the new guy and his offensive coordinator tell you they want you to stay in the pocket, not to run. Then your head coach benches you because he believes the guy behind you gives the team a better chance to win when you and all your teammates are thinking "uh, NO!" You're under contract for one more season. You're doing your best to play from the pocket, even though (1) your best offensive lineman can't stay on the field, (2) your second best offensive lineman is likely to retire or move on soon, (3) your third best offensive lineman is just okay and (4) your other two offensive linemen wouldn't be starting on most NFL teams., maybe wouldn't even be on the roster. So your coach doesn't like how you play and won't play to your strengths, the entire offensive line has to be rebuilt in the next two seasons, and you're going to be 30 when you become a free agent. Under those circumstances, what could your head coach possibly do or say to convince you that you want to be in a Bills uniform in 2019? Tyrod is counting the days until he get out of town. His agent probably already has asked the Bills to trade or release him after this season ends.

I didn't think he was rebuilding in the classic sense of the word. I thought he was transitioning. It's all about Taylor. I think the Bills could win with Taylor while they were looking for someone better. As I said, use the six picks in the 2018 draft to get some talent, bring a couple of free agents with the money you're not spending on Gilmore and Watkins and compete in the league. That approach could have worked over the next season or two AND made the Bills really good by 2020, maybe with Taylor as your quarterback, maybe not. You can't follow that plan when you know that 2018 will be Tyrod's last season in Buffalo. Now you MUST go looking for a replacement for him. That won't be a free agent, so you have to do it in the draft. So many teams are looking for QBs that now you have to be prepared to burn two or three or four good picks to get a QB NOW so that he can be your starter in 2020. On top of that, instead of being a team perceived to be on the rise, the Bills are a team perceived to be rebuilding, so their ability to sign quality free agents, and especially quality free agents in the $2-$5 million per year range is diminished. The only way free agents are coming is if they're getting top dollar from the Bills. In short, I think the Bills have abandoned a possible route to success and now are a total unknown for the next three years. Can these guys evaluate talent? I don't know. Even near the top of the draft, getting a QB is a crapshoot, so the Bills could draft a guy who turns out to be LESS productive than Tyrod. The ENTIRE future of the Bills now depends on McDermott and Beane, and ther now are HUGE questions about whether they know they're doing: How could they not know that Peterman wasn't ready? How could they not know that they couldn't afford to lose Dareus for the second half of the season? If they knew their talent was bad and they started Peterman and traded Dareus because they had given up on the season and were looking ahead, how could they decide to give up a valuable pick to add a stud pass receiver to a team going nowhere? They didn't say they were rebuilding, and I didn't think they were. But they are now.,

I can argue with minor points, but overall what you say sounds right. I've been blind to it for six months while some people have been saying it, but it very much looks like you say. I defended Jauron for a long time, and I'll defend him here. I think Jauron was a really smart guy with the wrong philosophy. He was almost hopelessly conservative. Now, maybe, if presented with a top-notch philosophy he would have a taken a different approach, but I think that conservatism was in his blood. BUT - I'll say this. Jauron's teams never got blown out like the Bills have been for three weeks running. Maybe Jauron's boys got run out of the stadium once in a while when they were playing the league's juggernaut, but other than that his teams actually stayed in the game. This team hasn't forced a punt in 22 possessions. Two 4-6 teams have beaten the Bills just as soundly as an 8-2 beat them. That didn't happen to Jauron teams. I've gotten extraordinarily pessimistic about this coach very quickly. Last week I said that before the Jets game McDermott was a leader in the race for coach of the year. After the Saints game, he would be a shoe-in for coach of the year if he could turn it around and get to the playoffs. Turning this around this season will take nothing short of a miracle. Right now you have to conclude that McDermott is MUCH closer to failing as a head coach than taking a team to a Super Bowl.

All the more reason not to ask your quarterback to stay in it. And by the way, this is one of the great sentences in this or any other thread: "I maintain my physique chiefly by adhering to a strict inactive lifestyle not from saturated fats." Head scratch followed by laughter. Beautiful.

I think there's some truth in that, but I think some of the blame falls on McD and Dennison.

I'm not going to go back to figure out who else threw three picks in the first quarter, but I know Trent Edwards did it against the Browns in Buffalo.

I think he probably already has lost the team, but you're right. He'd be facing a player revolt if he started Peterman.

I don't agree. Last week was the fork in the road, and he took it. Whether McD knew it or not, benching Taylor last week meant that it's a virtual certainty that Taylor will not be a Bill in 2019, and maybe not even 2018. If the Bills don't cut him, he's going to get out as soon as his contract permits, which is the end of 2018. What can McDermott possibly say to Taylor or do that will make Taylor believe anything other than that he's the QB only until the next warm body comes along? In Taylor's eyes, McDermott is so desperate to replace him that McDermott actually started a guy who was totally unprepared for live NFL action, so why would Taylor believe that McDermott won't do it again? So from that point of view, I suppose the only choice at QB is Peterman. Why,? Because it's now a certainty that Taylor isn't the QB of the future, so you may as well play the next guy in line, even if he looks like an incredible longshot. The problem with that is McDermott risks losing the rest of the team, because as the HC you're asking 44 other guys to go out there, play hard and risk injury when you've left your best chance to win at your most important position on the bench. Do I want to play for that guy? If I'm Kyle do I want to come back for another year? If I'm Incognito? If I'm Matthews? Who wants to play for a coach who doesn't play the best players. Starting Peterman was a colossally stupid decision. It made sense only if McD was sure that Peterman is an NFL starter, and if McD was sure Peterman is an NFL starter, then there are serious questions, huge questions, about his ability to evaluate talent.

I never really thought much about it, but I think you're absolutely correct about this. Fans complained that Jauron's philosophy was "playing not to lose," and McDermott is very much in the same mold. Bend don't dreak defense, conservative offense to run the clock, keep the game close so that you have a shot to win in the end. In retrospect, the Jaguars game told us all we needed to know. McDermott didn't open up the offense until literally the last drive or two. It was completely clear that he was content to be behind so long as he trailed by less than two scores. Then, late in the game, he opened up the offense and the Bills actually threatened to tie it. In the following weeks, we saw the same things. That's a good philosophy to follow when your team isn't competitive in the talent category. Play conservatively and hope for something good to happen. Maybe that's all that happened in the first seven games: maybe the Bills were just lucky, catching the Falcons when they were stumbling around, catching Denver when THEIR wheels were falling off. Maybe it was just luck. And maybe Beane and McD knew it. And maybe they traded Dareus intending to tank. And maybe they started Peterman because they knew the season already was in the crapper. I'd be okay with that, but then why in the world would you trade a second for Benjamin? If you believe you're in total rebuild mode, you don't make that move. You know what's really maddening about this, from the offensive side? Rex comes in and says it's going to be ground and pound. He brings in a run-oriented offensive coordinator. One game into his second season, he fires the offensive coordinator, the Bills open up the offense, at least relatively speaking, and the offense flourishes, at least relatively speaking. McD comes in and brings in a run-oriented offensive coordinator who takes away much of what Taylor does best and asks him to succeed doing the things he isn't so so good at. And what is that ? It's staying in the pocket. And you know what's amazing about that? Look around the league - offensive lines all over the league are struggling to protect their QBs in the pocket, and everyone is saying you need a mobile QB to win. New England is the only exception. Rodgers, Brees, Luck, Mariota, Tannehill, Wilson, Watson, Smith - those are the kind of QBs everyone wants. Eli, Palmer, Flacco - those are the guys you don't want. So McD brings him an OC and gives him a QB who fits the current model, and the OC installs an offense designed to restrict the QB's mobility. Jauron at least had an excuse. He didn't have a QB.

I agree the Bills were in the market for a QB next year in any case. I think the Peterman move last Sunday closed the door on Taylor being the QB beyond 2018 (maybe even beyond 2017), so it makes the QB search much more urgent. Now the Bills have to use the 2018 draft to get their starting QB for 2019, and that becomes the number 1 priority in the draft. If they'd just kept Taylor as a starter, they could have been much more flexible in their approach, taking a QB as he presented himself, maybe late first round, maybe second round, maybe not until 2019 or even 2020. A month ago, before the Benjamin trade, I thought the future looked pretty clear: renegotiate Taylor's deal and keep him for several more years, knowing he's not great but, as I said, serviceable, and used those six picks in the first three rounds to rebuild the lines, and maybe also looking for McCoy's replacement. Hope to get a bunch of those 2018 draft picks into the lineup in 2018, and by 2019 you have a lot of seasoned young players. Also probably pick up a free agent or two. In the meantime, you're hoping that Taylor continues to develop in the areas where he's currently deficient. And, as I said, be on the lookout for a good QB prospect somewhere in the draft without trading up. Now they've given up one draft pick for a player who's going to be a free agent after 2018 and who will be looking at a Bills team that in all likelihood won't have a QB. So the Bills went from a team a QB and six high draft picks to a team without a QB and five high draft picks. Gotta say, I'm really enjoying talking about this with you. And, to backtrack a little, I agree with you that the problem with the defense certainly could be BOTH talent and gap integrity. And the problem with Williams most likely is quickness, not strength. I hadn't thought that carefully about it write it clearly - I was just thinking that Williams isn't as "strong" a player as he used to be, not so much in the physical sense as in the effectiveness sense.

I have doubts about PFF but let's assume this is a reasonable assessment (I think it is). That's what I think is such a disaster to have made the Peterman move. The Bills have a serviceable qb that they've now relatedness the trash heap, forcing them to be in the market next year for a qb. That wasn't necessary.

I think the D line is shot. A few years ago you had Mario Williams, Dareus, and Kyle near his prime. Hughes got to be a finesse player. No one pushed them around. Now there's a weaker Kyle, a no-name substitute for Marcell and no Mario. It looks to me like the defensive line is being pushed off the ball on every play, because they simply don't have the strength to hold their ground. That leaves one offensive lineman and a blocking back free to attack the middle linebacker and someone else, and that's why the defense is getting gashed by running backs. That's not "gap integrity" and I don't see that coaching is going to help. Add to that a middle linebacker who's too slow for the position that McD wants him to play, an outside linebacker who's a pass rusher and mediocre in other areas, and an old journeyman linebacker. McD can coach all he wants, I think that line is in trouble. Dareus, when he was on the field, was the one guy who could stabilize things. If McDermott understood what was going on with his defense, he NEVER would have allowed the Dareus trade. He allowed it because, just like in the case of Peterman, he thought he had a replacement who could play. In both cases he was horribly wrong. I really am worried now that McD is just a kid playing at being a head coach. Now he's not naming a starter for Sunday. Does he think he's going to get some spectacular advantage out of not announcing a starter? I could be the Chiefs' defensive coordinator. I'd get up in front of my team and say the following: "Boys, Taylor will be the starter. Even McDermott isn't stupid enough to put that kid out there again. So our defense will be just like in practice against Alex Smith, except Smith is about four times better. Taylor will run like Alex. Keep him in the pocket, and he'll eat the ball. "AND, if McDermott is even stupider than I think he is and puts in Peterman, pound the hell out of him every time he goes back to pass. "We'll be fine. Take the rest of the day off."

Huckleberry and Hapless are REALLY depressing me. It's hard to argue with their take on recent history. I believed p, I was sure, that McDermott was the answer. Maybe he is. But right now I think he's looking at a total rebuild, and there's no evidence that he has what it takes. Will the Pegulas give him and Beane another four years to prove themselves? There's a good chance it will take that long. I say all the time that you can't tell who the good and bad teams are until late October and into November. It looks like we're finding out. Oh, and good luck signing free agents next Spring. Unless the Bills miraculously win 3 or 4 games, it's hard to imagine a free agent getting excited about signing with the Bills.

Dilly Dilly!

The last three games have been such devastating losses that i couldn't think clearly about the team last night when I was writing the OP. Really. I didn't have the energy or mental focus or heart to spend time thinking or writing about what's actually wrong. And, of course, all kinds of things are wrong. Thanks to everyone who's posted here with actual substantive comments about the team. Here are some thoughts now that my head has cleared a bit: I think that the team is badly short of talent, and its best talent is old - McCoy, Incognito, Kyle. I think McDermott brought new energy and a great message that the team bought into, and the energized mentality that McDermott created masked the team's weaknesses during the early part of the season. They won with energy, emotion and execution. Then as teams got a chance to see film of the regular season Bills, they figured out the weaknesses and began exploiting them. Energy and emotion only go so far; if you're short of talent, when the opposition knows what you're going to do, you're in trouble. That's what happened to the Bills. Then, to compound the problem, the one dominant athlete the Bills had on the defensive front seven, Dareus, got traded. Williams is past his prime and never demands double teams. Hughes is a good complementary player - that is, when the rest of the Dline is good, he is able to make plays, but he isn't a significant disruptor on his own. Yes, Dareus wasn't playing every down, but he WAS playing enough to be a presence, and he WAS demanding double teams. Then, as others have said, the Bills have weak linebackers. Brown is too slow to play the middle the way McDermott's defense demands. Homber and Alexander simply aren't very good in pass coverage. Combined, they leave lots of open space in the underneath zones. It took teams a few weeks to figure it out, but for the past few weeks the Bills have given up easy completions repeatedly in that area. They struggle in run defense, in part because the offensive linemen aren't double teaming any defensive linemen, so blockers can get to the second level and handle the linebackers. So the linebackers know they have to get up to stop the run, and that makes them vulnerable to play action, exacerbating their problems in pass defense. The Bills are equally challenged on the offensive line. Wood is average, RIchie does a good job, Glenn is the best of a weak group, but he isn't on the field enough. The right side is still a problem. Collectively, they aren't getting the job done in the run or in pass protection. The coaching also hasn't helped. Ayjent describes it well. Dennison has taken a reasonably effective 2016 offense and restructured it. The blocking schemes aren't as effective as last season. The pass protection is worse. And Taylor has been asked to play a game that deemphasizes his strengths and exposes his weaknesses. The guy has a really good arm, he's pretty accurate. He can run, he can scramble, and he can throw on the run. Add it all up, and you've got a mess. It means the Bills need some defensive linemen, some linebackers, some offensive linemen and a new quarterback who can play the system Dennison (and McDermott) want to play. That's a lot of new talent they have to add. They could get a new offensive coordinator, and maybe they should, but to what end? To resurrect Taylor? Sure, you redesign your offense when you have a Peyton Manning but although Taylor can be a serviceable QB, he's no Manning. Plus, McDermott now has told Taylor he isn't the QB McD wants, and that probably makes a long-term McD-Taylor relationship untenable. That's what I see, and I don't like how it looks.

I have to agree with this, particularly the bold. I've been saying for weeks that Taylor should take deep drops and stay behind the entire rush, not step into the pocket. When the entire rush is in front of him he can escape backward and then use his speed to get outside the ends. Wilson and Brees escape backward a lot.

Great story. Thanks. You're more of am optimist than I if you think Dennison and Taylor will open up. Taylor maybe, but he'll be wearing a different uniform.