Shaw66

I agree about all of this. My only quibble is that they need a decent sized #2 with decent speed, good hands, good route running, good blocking. They might actually come back to Davis, if his price doesn't get too high. I know people will react strongly to that, but I'm not sure the Bills are done with him. Personally, I think he's not as mobile, as shifty, as the Bills need. In any case, I think the need at #2 is manageable. Of course, if a can't miss receiver falls to the Bills in the first round, I wouldn't be disappointed. A guy who can be the #2 and the replacement for Diggs at #1 when the time comes. Timing of that fits right. But it's the defense that needs more immediate help, as you point out. A defensive rookie who can a starting job in training camp would be ideal. I think about the impact Bernard made this past season. I know he wasn't a rookie, but he came out of nowhere, solidified the defense, and made plays. Imagine a defensive lineman who did that - a real playmaker. I haven't studied the draft - either the players available or the Bills' situation, but I've heard here that the Bills have plenty of picks, and they're in line for a comp pick (or two? I don't know). Maybe there's a trade where they pick up another. Assuming the Bills have a good stockpile of picks, it would not surprise me to see Beane trade up to get that playmaker. Again, it might be a wideout who can be the successor to Diggs, but I think the Bills would get the most impact from a defensive guy - a stud defender who starts as a rookie and anchors the defense for the next ten years. Soon enough, we'll be in discussions about BPA vs need. Beane always has been clear that the first couple of rounds are for BPA, and in the later rounds he's more BPA-at-a-position-of-need. But he fudges that rule almost every year, it seems, by trading up when he sees a BPA who meets a need. I expect we'll see the trade up this year, and for the Bills that pick will be critical.

The Bills are not in salary cap hell. The salary cap is a collection of rules that GMs have learned to manage in ways that preserve their ability to sign new talent every year. The rules require certain accountings, and depending on the time of year that we look at the accounting, some teams look like they're in better position than others. However, if the GM of your team knows what he's doing, he always has the room he needs to make the kind of moves he needs to make. Beane knows what he's doing. Now, in some years will a team have more cap room than others? Sure, but the cap properly managed, every year there's enough room to manage the roster properly. Beane has been clear that he will not mortgage the future, because his objective is to be good every season, not to overspend on talent because he thinks the Bills are in a window.

Excuse me. This is both wrong and inappropriate. The fact that a word has a definition - like the definition of window above, does not prove that windows exist or are a viable roster strategy. Flat Earth is the concept that the earth is shaped like a disk, but the fact that there is a term for the concept doesn't prove the existence of that concept, either. The windows that you're talking about naturally occurring. They occur by design of the GM, who tries to make their team succeed by acquiring a lot of talent, all arriving at the franchise at more or less the same time. Modern NFL GMs rarely operate their team that way these days, because the draft and the salary cap work so well that it's essentially impossible to out-talent the rest of the league. Baseball teams sometimes have tried to do it intentionally by tanking to accumulate multiple years of high first round picks, unloading talented veterans for more picks or just to stockpile money, then race to the top on the backs of young talent that the team won't re-sign to monster contracts. It just isn't an effective model in the NFL. One place where it happens occasionally is when the team hits on a rookie QB who is so good so young that the team has a window with a lot of cap room. But that doesn't happen very often. The Bills signing Von Miller was not window behavior, because Von Miller was signed to a long-term contract that was designed to give the Bills a great edge for at least three years and as much as six. That's building a team, not loading up on talent for the short-run. Beyond that, the notion of "window behavior" is bogus. What you're talking about is behavior like the Rams acquiring Miller the year before or signing OBJ. That doesn't mean the Rams had a strategy based on windows and rebuilds. The Rams expect to be good year after year. All those signing represented was something that Beane says he would do, too, which is that if the team is having a good regular season run and looks like it could win it all, then he'll do whatever he can to get additional talent on the team. So, for example, when the Bills were 6-6, Beane was not going to run out and get a special player on a one-year (or less) rental. If they're 10-2 next season, he might. The Bills have been built, intentionally, to compete for championships every year, year after year, and to reload talent in such a way that the team doesn't have peaks and valleys with talent. That is exactly what McBeane described when they first got to Buffalo. What's worse than the fact that you were wrong, however, is your attitude and the tone with which you address the rest of us. We are not "brainless" (far from it) and we are not "dumbasses."

This has bothered me a lot since that game. KC just took big plays all game long. It certainly looked like they knew exactly what would work when they saw certain defenses. Clearly, the players weren't prepared for what KC was doing. I think that has to be a problem with the Bills' self-scouting. If Reid and his coaches could see all of these opportunities and knew which routes to run to take advantage, the Bills' self-scouting operation failed, because the Bills coaches should have been able to see those opportunities. Now, maybe Reid is just so creative he sees things others don't, but the frequency of their success getting guys open suggests that it just wasn't very hard for the Chiefs to know when and how to attack for chunk plays. I haven't looked back at the game to look with any greater care, but it's also possible Reid's success related largely to attacking the linebackers. The absence of Milano and Bernard probably made life easier for Reid.

Yeah, it's the doom and gloom that drives this kind of talk. People need to remember the doom and gloom around here six months ago, as preseason was ending. Remember the crisis the Bills had a middle linebacker. There was no one to play the position, Beane hadn't drafted anyone, and he also was doing nothing in the free agent market. The bottom line was that this board didn't know what it was talking about, collectively. So, now it's the "window," because there is some roster change coming. I can 100% guarantee you that McDermott and Beane are not sitting around One Bills Drive talking about the closing of the last window and how long it's going to take to open the next window, just like they weren't sitting around talking about who's going to play middle linebacker. They're working on building the 2024 roster just like a year ago when they were working on the 2023 roster. At this time last season, the Bills didn't have McGovern, Torrence, Harty, Kincaid, Douglas, Rapp, or Floyd. No one was saying the Bills "window" was closed. Every team's roster changes, every season.

There are no windows. There just are seasons. Every season is an opportunity to win the Super Bowl when you have a great QB. Before we talk any more about windows, I invite someone to analyze the seasons when Tom Brady was the QB for the Patriots and explain when their first window opened and closed, their second window opened and closed, etc. Belichick went 5-11 in his first season there; after that, he didn't have a losing season with Brady, and he had only one season when he didn't have double-digit wins. Their window was always open. How about the Chiefs? They've had plenty of roster turnover. When was the window closed?

Thanks. Excellent points. Excellent. I wasn't really talking about some kind of statistical improvement. I agree, in a physical sense, Josh elevates the performance of his teammates. I was thinking more about his ability to instill confidence in his players, to have a such a complete understanding of what's happening on the field that he raises THEIR level of understanding of their job. That's the magic that Kelce and Mahomes have - they are literally playing the game at a level higher everyone else. Allen and Diggs were close to that but haven't gotten there. Allen and Kincaid showed some flashes last season and may be special. And it's not just the receivers. Mahomes is thinking along with the center, and through the center with the oline. I think it's one reason Creed transitioned so easily - Mahomes raised Creed's level of understanding. What we see in Mahomes is total package - arm, athleticism, brains, leadership. That's where I think Allen has to go, and I think he's well on his way.

Agreed. I think he made real progress this season, starting out almost forcing the checkdown. But by the end of the season, he seemed really comfortable, making solid decisions, good throws, and still having the freedom and smarts to run when it was time to run. I think we'll see an even better Josh next season.

I think this list demonstrates that the receiver issue is quite manageable, so long as we assume Diggs will return to form. Personally, I think Diggs was dealing with undisclosed, or underdisclosed, injuries, and he'll be back. If that's true, they just need a quality #2, and they can fill in the #4 spot easily enough. The success of the passing game depends much more on what Brady does than some major overhauls of the wideout room.

First, in my experience, very few people get worse at their jobs, at least until age begins to erode their abilities. Very few people. Second, yes, some people refuse to change. However, you're ignoring that McDermott is a person whose core principles include a commitment to continuous improvement, lifelong learning, and change. He is all about growth and change to achieve objectives. For example, the Bills were among the very most successful teams transitioning their entire operation when COVID hit. His leadership allowed the Bills to continually change and revamp their procedures as new NFL rules were handed down. Why? Because McDermott has built an organization that embraces change. So, yeah, some coaches get fired because they have one and only one system and they don't change. That isn't McDermott. I think the weakness of the AFC East is a bit of a myth. During the first two decades of this century, the Bills-Jets-Dolphins had collective bad records because they had to play the Patriots twice a year. That meant that in most seasons, each of those teams had to go 10-4 against the rest of the schedule if they wanted to make the playoffs. And, in fact, over the period of the Pats dominance, the AFCE east teams had a better record against the Pats than the rest of the league had against the Pats. We're seeing the same thing now in the AFC West. When a truly dominant team comes along, the other teams in their division suffer.

For sure. In fact, I said as much in my post. It's what I see. That doesn't mean it's wrong. Or right.

I don't know what this means, exactly, but it's exactly correct. Mahomes has an approach to the game that is superior to Allen's, and it's something that Allen still needs to develop to be an all-time great. I'll mention a few things. When Mahomes comes on the field late, with the game on the line, he has an attitude that we all can feel. First and foremost, it is a total absence of fear. Everything about him says he expects to win. And his look says, "I know we're going to win." It's more that it says, "I know what I need to do at this moment. I'm going to do what I need to do." Allen is getting there. Earlier in his career, sometimes you could see the fear in his eyes. Late this season, it wasn't there. He was in charge, and confident about what he was doing. Still, he isn't so much in charge that you can feel his presence and his confidence. Some of it comes from having completely mastered the offense, from understanding every nuance of what needs to be done on every play. The importance of that attitude that others can see is that it affects his teammates on the field. The other players all admire the QB, because the QB knows so much and executes under fire. When the QB executes like Mahomes and is in charge like Mahomes, the players' attitude goes beyond admiration. Maybe it's trust. The other players trust Mahomes to get them into the right play, to execute the right play, and the other players know exactly what he expects of them. So, Patrick seems to raise the level of play of the whole offense. Josh has all the tools. Josh's punishing physical style already has won him the admiration of his teammates. They love him for that, and they'll follow him anywhere. However, he needs to show the mental power, the mastery of the game. He has to execute with discipline, something that Mahomes is great at. Patrick just never seems to make the wrong throw. His judgment is excellent. Josh is still growing into that. I know others in this thread have said, "Josh is great and he's not the reason the Bills haven't won," and I get that idea. However, the supremely good quarterbacks raise the level of all the players around them. We're seeing Mahomes, and we saw Brady. Peyton had it, too. I don't think Rodgers had it, and I think Allen currently is like Rodgers. Rodgers has amazing talent, and sometimes his amazing talent wins games for his team. But Rodgers didn't have his team behind him in the same way that Mahomes and Brady do/did. Rodgers demands that his teammates follow him; Mahomes brings his teammates along with him. Allen's teammates love him and all that, but when they're on the field with him, they don't execute for him the way the Chiefs execute. It's as though they're waiting for Allen to do it, whereas Mahomes gets his teammates to help him do it. Obviously, there's no data to support any of this, but it feels real to me. One of my strongest reactions to the Super Bowl was that I was hoping that Allen was watching Mahomes, because Allen has to do what Mahomes does. Physically, he doesn't need much of anything, but mentally he needs to have truly mastered the offense, the plays, the strategy, the situation, all of that, AND his has to project an attitude to the players that says, "I've got this; not just physically. I've got ALL of this."

Don't assume McDermott won't don something like you suggest.

BuffBIlls is right. What holes? I think people have memories that are too short. People need to remember the drought. Those teams had holes. I mean, every year, as free agency and the draft approach, it was completely obvious that the Bills had no one - I mean NO ONE - to play one or two or three positions. Those were real holes. The Bills don't have one hole on offense. All they have is a position - wide out, where it would be good to get better, but that's not a hole. Defensive holes? Well, if they lose Hyde or Poyer or both, those are holes. They don't have holes on the D line, at least until they lose someone in free agency. No holes at corner. All those positions are just places it would be good to upgrade. No holes at linebacker. This is a solid, championship caliber roster that needs to get better.

On second down in red zone at the end of the game, you didn't "expect" Allen to get the touchdown? I did. Each season is different. I didn't expect the Bills to go anywhere in the playoffs last season. I was prepared for the Bills to lose to the Bengals. I did expect more this season. I don't see why I have to wait for the Bills to prove it before I can expect that they will win. Waiting for them to prove is taking a negative attitude - "I'll believe when I see it" means, literally, "I don't believe it now." Why don't you believe it now? Because you believe that there is something wrong that keeps them from winning, based on previous performances. I don't believe previous performances control future outcomes. Think about this. Dawkins holds his ground for a fraction of a second longer against Jones and Allen hits Shakir in the end zone. Chiefs have the ball with a minute 43 and need a touchdown? Do they get it? I don't know. Most people around the league would say, yes, they get the TD. Why? Because Mahomes seems to ALWAYS get that score in that situation. So, if that's true, is it really the Bills fault that they lost? The point is, losing to the Chiefs is not the measure that something is wrong. Everyone loses to the Chiefs. The Bills are the only team good enough to have seen them in the playoffs for three of the last four years. That history doesn't justify not believing the Bills can win it all. All that needs to happen is for Dawkins to get a little better or the Bills to get better in some other way, and/or the Chiefs getting past their prime. Today, February 13, 2024, I believe they can do it. I don't have to see it first. Well, maybe some of what they've been doing is working on the wrong stuff. Or they've been attacking it the wrong way. But the whole point of the process is to figure it out, whatever it is, and fix it. Day after day, year after, work at continuous improvement. And multiple businesses in the US, here and around the world, use this process.

Well, I haven't seen the posts from Gunner and Bado, but I agree with this. I said it somewhere a couple days ago. One thing I don't like is that McDermott, and therefore Beane, go a bit too far with the philosophy that the Bills need great versatility in their players. Everyone has to be able to do everything that a person in their position can to. For receivers, for example, catch, run deep patterns, run short patterns. Offensive linemen have to be good at pulling, good at pass pro, good at road grading. Romo was right about Chris Jones the other night - he's a special talent because he makes big plays when the team needs one. Milano may be the only player the Bills have whose superior combination of talent and skills makes him a special playmaker. Niners have three on offense PLUS a couple on defense. Chiefs have at least Jones and Kelce. Of course, that point of view suggests that big game failures are more related to players rather than coaches. I don't think this problem is lost on McBeane, either. This problem is exactly why the Bills signed Von Miller. Exactly. His job when he came to Buffalo was to pressure the QB, and Mahomes in particular. He did in regular season in 2022. He hadn't recovered to be a factor this time around. But the point isn't whether Miller worked, or will work next season. The point is that McBeane are aware of the fact that they need game-changing talent somewhere in the lineup. Kincaid may be one of them. Milano is one. Bernard may actually be one. I'd guess that there will be on free agent the Bills sign who they want to be a game changer, probably a receiver.

I'd like to hear it too. The Bills have a process. It's about continuous improvement. One part of the process is self-evaluation, which includes what isn't working well enough and why. Based on what they learn, they adjust what they're doing. Coach differently, emphasize different things, adjust strategies, all of that. McDermott is evaluated, too. Now, they probably don't always succeed at improving what they targeted; no one succeeds all the time. But it's a proven process that leads to improvement, permanent improvement, over time. Now, you'll say they haven't improved over four years, but that's true only based on the final outcome: no Lombardi. But if you could see what their self-evaluation said each year and how they evolved and change in response to it, I'm sure you'd see that it's generally working in the way it was intended. There's an interesting interview with Belichick, maybe in March, after they'd beaten the Falcons in overtime. They were sitting in a restaurant/bar in Annapolis. The interviewer asked what they have to do to go back-to-back. He said he didn't know. (Well, I'm sure, he could talk about things in generalities, but as to specifics, he actually didn't know.) Instead he said everyone except him was back in Foxboro, doing what they were supposed to be doing today. Stuff like studying film, developing offensive and defensive strategies, etc. It was all designed to get better, to build on what they already knew. It was the off-season version of what he says in-season - we are focused on today and tomorrow and not on anything beyond this week's game. The process determines where improvement is necessary, who's responsible for the improvement, and what the strategies for improvement are. I think it would be really cool to sit in, maybe once a week or more, on various meetings, hear what they're targeting for improvement. It would be interesting.

Well, I agree with the first half. I've been saying here for years that people over-emphasize the importance of acquiring more talent. The NFL is designed to be sure that it's practically impossible to out-talent the rest of the teams in the league. You have to win with a few stars and a bunch of ordinary talent. Which means the success of teams depends on coaching. Where we disagree is on McDermott. You're saying, in some many words, that McDermott isn't a winner. I'm saying that he just hasn't won yet. That is, I believe in and the possibility, actually the likelihood, that McDermott will win, probably win more than once. You believe that the Bills that we've seen in the past is the most we can expect to get so long as McDermott is the coach. It's exactly what Eagles fans said about Reid. I think people learn and improve, and McDermott is dedicated to that principle, to the max. If anyone is going to improve, it's McDermott. It's very hard to win a Lombardi - very hard, and a lot of luck is required, too. There have been a few exceptions: Reid now, Belichick, Walsh, maybe Landry, Paul Brown, Noll, probably Shula. Most of the coaches who've won have been one and done, and they were fortunate to get one.

No, I don't agree. Coaches improve year after year. McDermott is way, way up the learning curve, and he's 49 years old. Pete Carroll didn't win the Super Bowl until he was 63. When he was 49, he was fired after three dismal seasons as head coach of the Patriots - Bill Belichick almost immediately turned the team into a winner. Pete Carroll learned a lot between age 49 and age 63, and McDermott will. The only difference between McDermott and whomever the Bills might hire to replace him is that the guy they hire will have to learn more than McDermott has to learn to succeed.

Okay, we'll call this Corollary One to the Schottenheimer Rule - If one part of the team hasn't performed in the past, that part of the team will continue not to perform in the future unless the coach is changed. It's the same thing. You're assuming that the future will be the same as the past, and that the people responsible for the past cannot improve. People change and get better at their jobs all the time, year after year.

This all well and good, but the point of the overtime rules ALWAYS has been sudden death. There are reasons for this, I suppose. One reason is that sudden death is exciting. It's dramatic. Another reason is TV. The networks like their schedules, and they want the games to end when they're supposed to end, or as soon thereafter as possible. Another reason is injury. Playing a full quarter to see if the tie is broken, and certainly having to play a second quarter, creates a war of attrition. It might be dramatic, but it isn't fair to the players. Remember how gassed the Bills and Chiefs were in 13 seconds? The Niners and the Chiefs this year, too. Those guys' bodies want it, need it, to end. The current system makes it reasonably fair to both teams. Essentially, the game is sudden death after the first possession. Would you rather go first or second? Sure, there's a difference, and analytics will determine what's the smarter move, but that doesn't make the game unfair.

I think that's true, but I think that's part of the plan, the process. There have already been exceptions - Benford and Shakir are good examples. In fact, I think in the later rounds the Bills go for guys with the brains and commitment necessary to get acclimated quickly. The first couple of rounds are for physical talent, and those are the guys who make take longer to get up to speed. But in any case, I think you're right. This coming season, more so than the past, the Bills are expecting some young players to step up. I think they have high hopes for Williams. I expect the Bills to go after a receiver early on, and I expect it will be someone they intend to count on as the 2024 season rolls along, a guy who makes a bigger impact as a rookie than Shakir. I also expect Bills will be looking a D lineman to contribute early. The Bills also need a good young corner. Having said that, I don't expect as much turnover as some others around here. If the Bills did nothing but brought in someone to be a solid #2 receiver, with some speed and route running talent, I'd be OK with that. Diggs, New Guy, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, Cook - I'm good. Oline is set, although I would be surprised to see the Bills bring in someone who could challenge the existing lineup. There will be some changes in the D line, but the Bills don't need to clean house. Linebackers are set. The defensive backfield will have some changes, but there will be a lot of familiar faces. I should add that getting first and second year players to contribute is part of the process. McDermott explained it when he joined the team. The collective IQ that the team develops over time has to be taught to the rookies quickly, so they can get up to speed. McDermott's plan has always been to get to where he is right now - having a high-performing team that can continue to succeed even as good veterans leave the team. It's not like he just realized last week that he needs some young bloods - he and Beane have been planning for this for a couple of years.

No, you aren't wrong. It's because of the complexity of the systems McDermott wants to run. Most rookies contribute very little their rookie season. The best of them show great improvement in year two - Bernard and Cook. For many others, it's year three - Brown.

I think it was supposed to be Spencer Brown - What Say You? Missed by a bit.

Yes. And the "blueprint" is to have two standout #1 wide receivers, which is not sustainable. They were able to do it on Burrow's rookie contract, but those days are over.