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Shaw66

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Posts posted by Shaw66

  1. Like lots of people here, I've been thinking about what might happen between now and Thursday night.  

     

    We've seen some rumors about the Bills talking to the Giants and some rumors about there being no deal with the Giants.  

     

    Well, as I think about, it seems clear that there'll be no deal with Giants because the Bills can't offer the Giants anything that works for the Giants.  

     

    Either the Giants want one of the good QBs or they don't.   If they want one of the good QBs, then the only trade they'll do is to move to 1, 3 or possibly 4.   If they trade down below 4, the QB they want could be gone.   If they want one of the stud non-QBs, they can't move to 5 because the Browns may take the best stud non-QB at 4.   

     

    So it seems likely the only way the Bills could get to #2 would be if the Bills first traded to 4 and then traded up again.   But getting to 4 will be expensive - probably at least the 12 and 22, and that would be only if the Browns didn't like any of the studs at the top of the draft.   Then from 4 to 2 probably would cost next year's first.   

     

    There's a rumor that the Bills actually offered those three firsts to the Giants and the Giants said no.   The Giants said no, probably, because they know they don't want to pick below 3 or 4 at the worst, and getting those three firsts doesn't help them UNLESS THEY have a deal with the Browns for 4.   

     

    So that means to me the only route there is for the Bills to get to #2 is essentially a three-team trade, where the Bills go to #2, the Giants go to #4 and get the Bills' first round pick next year, and the Browns get the Bills' #12 and #22.   (Maybe a few late-round picks thrown in here and there to grease the skids.)   That seems to me to be a very, very hard deal to make.   Giants more or less won't do it if they want a QB, because it lets Buffalo and the Jets get in the QB line ahead of the Giants.   Only can work if the Giants want one of the top-of-the-draft non-QB studs AND the Browns don't want any of them.   

     

    And it's much easier for the Giants to tell the Jets they're looking to trade out of #2, and to protect themselves the Jets would need to trade up.   So the Giants can easily pick up another nice pick by moving back to #3, at no cost to them so long as they don't want a QB.   

     

    So the Bills are picking, at the very best, 4th.   Even that seems like a stretch.   The QB they want would have to be there (after the Browns, Giants and Jets have taken two or three of the QBs), and the Bills would have to be willing to give 12 and 22 to get there.   Possible, not likely.  

     

    Can the Bills get to 5?   Only if the Broncos don't want the QB the Bills want. 

     

    So it looks to me like Bills will be picking after at least 3 QBs have come off the board.  

     

    If the Bills actually did offer the Giants three first round picks (12, 22 and 2019) for #2, I wonder this:   Two months ago, that was  21, 22 and Cordy Glenn.   Did the Bills offer THAT to the Colts for #3?   THAT's the deal the Bills should have made, if it was possible.   The problem always was that the Jets had a much more attractive first-round pick to offer.  

  2. 13 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

     

     

    Shaw, I hate to see you like this.

     

    why don't you just post your telephone number here in this thread and we'll call you when something is up?

     

    TSW Members please do not abuse Shaw's number and his easy availability to chat when it's posted.  It is to be used only for news purposes and not rides to the airport.

    860-555-HELP

     

    Solid news and 0% interest calls only. 

  3. 1 minute ago, Bleedingreennc said:

    Do you really want him? Dude caught lightning in a bottle on a stacked team.

    Foles has had two good seasons as a pro.   That's more than catching lightning.   

     

    I'm not a huge Foles fan, but if the Bills won't or can't pull the trigger on a deal to move up for the QB they want in the draft, then I've always thought the other option is to send a pick to the Eagles for Foles, or a player, and keep looking for a rookie in the next few years.   In the meantime, see if Foles pans out.  

    • Like (+1) 2
  4. Just now, Bleedingreennc said:

    I'm with you, but I had no idea the Jets would trade so early, seems like a good move after all. I'm waiting to get the notification that you guys traded up.

    It was a good move by the Jets.   It cost them a lot to do it, and they had the #6.   I'm sure the Bills were talking to the Colts, but the cost to the Bills would have been out of sight.  

    • Like (+1) 1
  5. 2 minutes ago, Bleedingreennc said:

     

    Do the Bill's give up the farm for #2? The Giants are going to ask a kings ransom.

    Depends on whether the Bills' favorite QB is still on the board and if the Bills love him like the Colts loved luck.   

     

    Personally, I think if the Bills move up, it will be to 4 through 10, not 2.  

    2 minutes ago, BeefCurtns said:

     

     

     

     

     

    Anything yet?

    Nope.

     

    Keep checking.  

  6. 2 minutes ago, Bleedingreennc said:

    Hello all, been watching and waiting for this draft in what feels like forever. I have no clue who I want the Jets to take, each one has their good and bad traits. Who do the majority of Bill's fans want? 

     

    All this talk of Mayfield to the Jets makes me think Rosen is the one we are after.

    Goodness, gracious, all this draft talk has lured a lurker out from the weeds to join the fray.   Welcome!

    • Thank you (+1) 1
  7. 2 minutes ago, Speedy Beebe said:

    I’ve been on here every couple hours doing the same thing for weeks. This is taking forever. I feel like a five year old waiting for Christmas 

    The draft is like Christmas every year.   Shiny new toy under the tree, all that.

     

    But this year, it's like there's a four-car garage under the tree and I'm hoping for a Jag, a Porsche, a Maserati and a Lexus for everyday driving with a big red bow on top.  

    • Like (+1) 1
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  8. I'll admit it:  I have draft fever, bad.   I'm coming here every day, every night, looking for news.   Any trades?   Any credible rumors?  Did McBeane say anything?  Are the Browns on the clock yet?   Did Belichick fart in his sleep?

     

    I can't help myself.   I bite on almost anything.

     

    GIVE ME SOME NEWS!!!!

     

    Will the draft EVER get here?   

     

    Not here yet?

     

    How about now?   Still no?

     

    This is agony.  

    • Like (+1) 12
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    • Thank you (+1) 3
  9. 3 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

    I love how this thread has so many pages about a rookie who started half of one game, and 2/3 of another (in which he played in miserable conditions and didn't choke).

    That's it unless you count a couple mins of cleaup duty.

    Yet now we can all tell whether he's garbage, accurate (or "naturally accurate?"), out of the league after this year, a future starter, etc.

    It was stupid last year, and just as dumb now considering nothing has changed in terms of on-field play. No extra tape is available. No games have been played. 

    All we know is he's been working out, training, studying film, and being coached. 

    He likely won't even get a chance to start in 2018 with McCarron & whoever we draft fighting for #1 & #2 on the depth chart. Fight about it all you want, but it doesn't change the fact nobody actually knows s***.

    Of course, but the truth is that the second and last post in almost every thread should be

     

    "Nobody actually knows s***."

    1 minute ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

    image.thumb.png.dc9c4015bfca561ed622b57e2bde85fe.png

     

    this 3 point game?  Oops sorry that was partly why we got the Chargers fiasco. 

    No, we were talking about the Jets game.  

  10. 1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

     

    Yes, exactly.   And you have to buy into it 100%, which is another "elephant in the room" issue.  You take a guy who has had a lot of success - set records at his college, won awards, has friends who are big fans.  He's been doing what he does, and getting results. 

     

    Now you want to tell him "change it up".  That will only work if he's 100% into it, and he's dedicated to enforcing that change on himself every single time.  What's his feedback system for that?  Does he have a coach or mentor who can actually spot right vs wrong in real time and tell him?  When he's off-season, working on it?  Now how about when he's throwing in practice drills?  Now how about when he's throwing in scrimmage?  And all that is easy vs. throwing under pressure in a game.

     

     

    Jake Arrieta was a young pitcher with a lot of potential.  The Orioles got him and tried to reshape his motion and his philosophy, worked with him for years and never got anywhere.   He moved on to the Cubs, who said "go back to doing it your way," and he became an immediate success.  It's not that the Orioles approach was wrong; it's that it's really hard to have success by changing what the player has done naturally for years.  

  11. 6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

     

    Thanks for this article.  I wanted to bump it because it was such an interesting read!

    I didn't study it.   I did look at point 4, because I think I understand this point, and the article got it completely correct.   Assuming for the moment that points 1-3 are correct, and they made sense to me, then you can understand why it's so hard to change mechanics when these guys get to the pros.    If you've been throwing with a flawed motion since seventh grade, it's very difficult to reshape all that muscle memory and come up with a new motion that you use under pressure.   It's tough. 

     

    My son was a pretty good high school baseball player with a flawed swing.   We studied and figured out the proper mechanics, and he practiced it a lot.   Stepped into the batter's box in a live game, however, and his swing went back to the old flaws.   Without the right mechanics, he never good generate the bat speed necessary to hit in college. 

     

    That's why I said in the beginning of this thread that I take articles about changed mechanics with a grain of salt.   A lot more people work on their mechanics than actually change them. 

  12. 11 minutes ago, Gugny said:

     

    I am going to respectfully disagree with your assessment of that game.  The entire Bills team was pure crap for that game.  Tyrod was HORRIBLE and his stats were absolutely garbage time stats.  The Bills got their asses handed to them beginning at the end of the national anthem and ending when the final whistle blew.

     

    We scored 3 points in 3 quarters of football and 10 points, overall.

     

    That doesn't happen with decent QB play.

     

    He sucked that night, the defense REALLY sucked that night and the Jets pounded us for 60 minutes.

    You can make it up if you want, but the rest of us trying to deal in reality here.

     

    In your world a touchdown pass to Zay Jones in the second quarter may count for 3 points, but for the rest of us, it's 7.   And 15-21, a touchdown, and 7.8 yards per attempt over the first three quarters may be horrible in your world, but the rest of us call it something else.  

     

     

  13. 3 minutes ago, The Red King said:

     

    Come on now, I remember that Jets' game and it was a slaughter until the Jets almost choked yet another game away giving us a good number of garbage points (and yards) well after the game was out of hand.  That's far from "really good".  Anyone can put up good stats on a Prevent defense if they try.

    Wrong.    Here's what I wrote after the game:

     

    At the risk of starting a firestorm, what I really liked in the Jets game was Tyrod Taylor.   We’ll see what the second half of the season, but I’m pretty much sold on him.  

     

    Another night of excellent numbers.   He was 29 for 40, 7.1 yards per attempt, 2 TDs.  109 passer rating.   And before someone complains that he fattened his numbers in garbage time, he didn’t.   Through three quarters, he was 15-21 for a 7.8 average per attempt, with one touchdown.  110 passer rating.   In the fourth quarter he just continued what he’d been doing all game.

     

    And he made a bundle of excellent throws.   Both TDs were delivered beautifully, one with zip to Jones and one with touch, deep, to Thompson.   He had several excellent throws to receivers over the middle, including a couple to Jones, the fumble plays by Matthews and O’Leary.  

     

    Plus, he’s in complete control.  Never seems to be excited, runs the huddle efficiently.  

     

    • Like (+1) 1
  14. 40 minutes ago, grb said:

     

    Lord above, isn't this a tired old debate? Still one point, starting with a quote : "Taylor had been playing poorly enough that he created the opportunity."

     

    Yes, he played poorly against New Orleans, but in the three games before - New York, Oakland & Tampa Bay - Taylor played well. That's not what you see in many a comment above, where it's gospel that McDermott had to make the choice "given how Tyrod played vs. NO and the NYJs the weeks prior", but that opinion is based on :

    • People who don't remember watching the Jets game
    • The Bills lost the game, ergo Taylor played poorly
    • The fact that Taylor played well in three games, had a bad game, and then was benched makes no sense. Therefore he must have have played bad against the Jets too.

    As for McDermott's decision, here's what happened :

    • Over a four game stretch a defense-oriented coach watched his team give up the most yards in the NFL
    • He didn't have any answers
    • The OC said his scheme was perfect - pure genius - except for that Taylor guy.
    • So put the other guy in and pure genius will shine. 

    I'll grant that's a bit exaggerated - but not by much. As for the Jets game, Taylor was one of the few Bills' players who actually showed up to play.

     

    Think otherwise? No problem. But this guy wants to fight you :

     

    https://www.buffalorumblingbut s.com/2017/11/3/16602430/analysis-tyrod-taylor-was-not-the-problem-in-thursdays-buffalo-bills-loss-to-new-york-jets

     

     

     

    You're right.  It was the defense.   Taylor was pretty bad against New Orleans, but he was really good against the Jets.   Still, I'll put it on McD.  Why change your QB when he's playing well and your defense is imploding?    That's on McD.  

     

    And whoever said it may have been Denison's call is right, too.   May have been.   And maybe it was just McDermott trusting his coordinators, and after the debacle he knew Denison was gone.   But I can't buy that completely.   McDermott was seeing the practices.   He must have seen that Peterman wasn't playing like Aaron Rodgers.  

  15. 20 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

     

    It could happen I just don't like the move for the Browns, just let the chips fall where they may, they have a ton of picks, they'll get 2 stud players at 1 +4 , no need to move up imo. Get your QB and you will either get RB Saquan Barkley, Edge Rusher Bradley Chubb, star corner Mincah Fitzpatrick or mauling G Quentin Nelson, all of them would add an awesome presence to a team I feel is on the rise after many.many terrible years.

    Yeah, but trading up you can be sure to get both the stud you want and the QB you want.    You're there, you have the draft capital to do it.   If you can do it, why not?    

     

    If it makes sense to the Giants, it could happen.   However, if the Giants want a QB, it doesn't. 

    2 minutes ago, Skins Malone said:

    I agree.  For the sake of browns fans i hope the team starts to turn the corner.  They are right up there with the Bills for teams that just havent been able to get it going.  Hopefully we are both on the rise in the near future.

    I was a Browns fan before the Bills existed.   I agree.  

     

    But Bills first, please.  I don't have a lot of time left.  

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