Shaw66
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Posts posted by Shaw66
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2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:
They know. We don't.
I've been saying this for years.
I'd love to be on the inside to see and hear what these guys are thinking about. In GM, about the Giants' GM Ernie Accorsi, they recount his scouting trip to Happy Valley. Watching the game, Accorsi commented about how well coached Posluzny was, noting that his first step, either right or left, forward or back, always was with the correct leg in the correct direction. I mean, really, who on this board watches that stuff? Tiny details, observed and collected. People don't believe it when Beane says he really hasn't begun his evaluation of the QBs in the draft, but I do. If they're collecting that kind of data about prospects, it's completely believable that (1) they haven't completed collecting and assimilating the data and (2) Beane hasn't had time yet to begin studying it. As the Bills continue to sign free agents over the past day or two, it's clear that his focus is still elsewhere.
Listening to McBeane, it's clear they've learned a process with the Panthers (and the Eagles, in McD's case), and they follow the process. They have to consider pros and cons, compare apples and oranges, collect information from agents, other GMs, other coaches, wondering all the time how reliable that information is. Precision is necessary to get it right, and almost all aspects of the process are imprecise.
The Kevin Costner film Draft Day is typical Hollywood fare, but it captures the uncertainty and the tension as Costner decides what to do about HIS quarterback situation.
7 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:I am looking at it this way.
Last year McDermott came in and a few months later he picked the draft himself and he Pwoned them.
(Pwned is a young people's spelling, which by now probably means middle aged people
, of the word "Owned" but with an emphasis and a subversive flavor).
They will probably do ok this year.
Since they'e arrived, I've been impressed. They're not going to get 'em all correct, but they sure seem to be on the right path. Watching the draft will be fun.
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38 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:
I heading out to the store. Want me to pick up a Frencheyes qb on my way home!?
Got one of those.
How about a pants sized qb?
28 minutes ago, Bills Pimpin' said:It's completely semantics. The only reason some don't consider it a "total" rebuild is because McD kept around a handful of vets to help the culture rebuild portion of the total rebuild, a 9-7 record which shocked everyone and a playoff birth. If the Bills finished with a 3-13 or 4-12 record everyone would consider it a total rebuild. They have changed every starting position on the football team other than about 5 and they are rotational. You can't judge a rebuild by record only by actions. The fact the Bills stayed competitive with so many new players as well as gaining draft capital is a testament to the quality of the job of the rebuild. But IMO it was and is continuing to be a total rebuild.
Right.
And by the way, Beane said to Peter King that he told the owners that getting the payroll under control was a two-year project. So after this year, Williams almost certainly will retire, and the only holdover big contracts (McCoy and Clay) can both be terminated with minimal cap consequence.
It's a total rebuild.
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2 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:
...OMG, I'm sweating profusely..........and feeling a "twinge"......
Can't you guys concentrate on football?
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32 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:
Good pickup.Maybe it's the Eric Wood money?
I still think Hughes could be out, maybe through a trade. But I do hope we keep him. He is just a bit too expensive for what he offers.
If Clay is cut now its a 9 million dollar dead cap. If its post June 1, its 4.5 this year and 4.5 next year with a 4.5 cap saving this year. I think Clay stays.
Eric Wood money! That's probably it.
So it wasn't a slip that revealed that more is coming.
Thanks.
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1 hour ago, DriveFor1Outta5 said:
Beane on the QB’s “I haven’t spent enough time to have an opinion about any of them yet, honestly”. I’m calling BS on this one.
It isn't BS.
In one sense, of course, he has an opinion on all of them. He has SOME impression about them, he's SOME information about them.
But it's completely clear in the context of the press conference (where he said the exact same thing) and the interview, is that what he means is that he hasn't spent enough time to be in position to make an informed decision about which, if any, of these guys he'd want and at what price.
The fact that YOU may think that YOU have enough information to make the decision and therefore Beane must, too, simply means that you don't understand how much information is actually required or that you or your staff have done an enormous amount of research, including interviews with coaches, dozens of hours of film study, etc.
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King has interesting stuff in his interview with Beane.
Most interesting to me is that he decided to completely clean up the salary structure and get positioned the way he thinks they should be. Result? Bills currently have $36 million in dead cap, which is almost twice the next highest dead cap in the league, and Beane said when he's done this year he expects it to be closer to $45 million.
Hughes - $6.8 million dead cap
McCoy - $5 million dead cap
Clay - $9 million dead cap (I think).
Sounds like Beane tipped his hand. Someone else is moving out.
51 minutes ago, aristocrat said:So beane has only met with each guy for 15 minutes and is being patient. Jets the same and super aggressive already.
Yeah, it's an interesting comparison in styles. Based on the draft chart, the Jets overpaid to move up. They must be very sure about a couple of guys, because they can't be assured that one guy will drop to them.
Now that we've had a year watching and listening to Beane, it's clear that his overriding principle is maintain the discipline. It's the same thing we've heard from McDermott, and it's why they like working with each other. Last season when the Bills were collapsing, McDermott kept saying "it's a process, stay with the process," and things turned out okay. I mean, I thought there was no way in the world the Bills were going to the playoffs after those three losses, and he's saying "relax, a week at a time, we're not done."
Beane is the same. He essentially is saying that he works as hard as he can to make every decision the right decision. It's not about outcomes, it's about the process. Follow the process and the outcomes take care of themselves. In other words, he's saying "sure, I want a better quarterback, but I'm not going to overspend. I'll get the quarterback when the right opportunity presents itself." It's for the fans, because we want results now, but he's learned that if you just keep making good decisions, eventually it comes together.
Interesting to watch.
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Interesting to read Peter King's comments about the Bills. In his interview with King, Beane made it clear that one objective, maybe his primary objective, was cleaning out the high salaries and getting cap management under control. I've always wondered about this, and he says that attacking the salaries was always part of his plan. I'd guess that means when he interviewed with the Bills he told them he was going to do some major surgery. And he says he wanted to take as much of the pain as he could this year.
That's what we've seen. The Bills dead cap money is at $36 million, and Beane says when he's done he expects it'll be $45 million (Shady, Jerry, are you listening?).
Remember a few weeks ago when McDermott said "we're not as close as some people think," meaning don't get too carried away because we made the playoffs? Well, hearing Beane say what he says about the salary cap is confirmation. These guys are taking the train off one track and putting it on another, and what they're telling us is not to expect the train to go anywhere until we get it on the new track.
What does that tell us about QB? Not much. I think all we know is what we've always known, which is that Beane will NOT overspend. He's all about maintaining discipline and trusting the process.
I like this.
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3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
It's not a total rebuild. I wish it were and that it had happened last year, but it's not.
If it were, they'd cut/trade McCoy. They wouldn't have re-signed Kyle Williams. They'd cut/trade Incognito. Total rebuilds essentially mean an acceptance that you're going to suck for an absolute minimum of two years and probably three. You dump ALL your guys over 29 or 30 because by the time you're any good they'll be too old.
This isn't a total rebuild. It just isn't. If they had been going to do that, they'd have done it last year and got a high pick this year in the QB-rich draft.
But yeah, it's a partial rebuild. One that started last year.
And this in no way means they aren't going to trade up. A lot of the point of rebuilds - most especially total rebuilds but really all rebuilds - is to get to a place where you can get your franchise QB. Yes, they're going to rebuild primarily though not entirely through the draft, not because it's a rebuild but because they've said from minute one that that's their philosophy. But trading up for a QB absolutely is building through the draft. The most important part of building through the draft if you haven't got a franchise QB on the roster.
Yeah, any GM hates to lose picks. But getting a franchise QB would allay that pain.
I think you and I get into these semantic discussions from time to time. We see it the same way but talk about what the words mean.
There's no pro football dictionary that I'm aware of that defines total rebuild. You're taking it literally - if it's total EVERY veteran/star must go. I'd guess that if you look back over the years at situations where the press called a team's transformation a total rebuild you'd fine that in every case, some of the veterans remained. That is, total doesn't really mean total.
In this case, a year after the new regime arrived, the entired defensive backfield, essentially all the linebackers and all but three of the defensive linemen are gone (with questions remaining about two of those). Three of five offensive linemen, all the wideouts and the QB are gone. Point is, that I'd think this is about as close to a total rebuild as actually happens in the NFL.
The one exception that you raise that maybe makes it not total is Kyle. McD loves Kyle and he had a need at tackle. I might agree with you that in a total rebuild, there's no room for that sentimentality.
Between the salary cap and the draft, there rarely is enough draft capital to do a total rebuild in one year. If you dumped EVERYONE who was any good at all for the old the regime, you'd have too little talent left to compete the following year. You'd have what I guess would be a total rebuild and a tank simultaneously.
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13 hours ago, oldmanfan said:
You as in the collective you. Including me and everyone here. This entire past day has been filled with posts claiming absolute knowledge over what they could have done, should have done and will do.
And none of us know squat. Because we do not know what value the Bills have on the QBs in this draft. And none of us have anywhere near the access to the data the Bills have on these guys. Few of us have watched them live, we don't have the volumes of tape they have, we have not had access to their coaches, other players to see about them. We haven't stood at a white board or in a film room and quizzed them about reads, progressions, etc. None of us have any of that kind of data.
Know what else? We don't have phone lines connected to every other team's front office. So we have no idea what offers are flying around. For all we know there's a deal right now with the Giants or Browns. Or not. Or with someone else. Yet people here insist we cannot move up now and that we lost any chance at a QB. Which is simply wrong. Because we don't know.
i love the Tom Clancy books. One of Jack Ryan's favorite phrases is : don't know means don't know. We don't know. Beane does know. He knows he has to decide if any of the four is a guy he has to have, or if he's OK with any of the top 6 guys. He knows or will know if the draft capital he has acquired will allow him to get a guy he wants or if he has to sweeten the deal. He knows if there's a MLB or DT that at 12 could solidify his D for years. He knows because it's his job to know.
Does that mean a guaranteed certainty in his decision? Of course not. But he's in a helluva lot better position than we are to make the call. When we woke up this morning everyone thought Beane was smart for getting a bunch of picks for this draft, for getting some decent FAs, clearing cap, etc. And 24 hours later he's a bum because he didn't make a trade that might only get him the third QB in his board.
He knows. We don't know squat. It's fun to debate opinions, but in the end we don't know squat.
I agree.
What goes on is so much more complicated than we understand, and what they evaluate is so much beyond what we do that what we think is just interesting opinions. Uninformed opinions, compared to what the pro front office people actually do.
Here's a point I've discussed nowhere, at least not recently. (I've been away from the board for a day, so maybe it's somewhere). Do you know how much dead cap space the Bills have? $35 million, twice as much as the second worst dead cap space. All the important components of that total are Dareus, Taylor and Glenn. I find that fact interesting.
It means this really is a total rebuild. McCoy, Hughes, Williams, Incognito is about all that are left. A total rebuild takes time. And it's done through the draft.
What does that mean? It means Beane's not going to be in a hurry to package a lot of picks to move up, because picks is all he has to rebuild with. He can't sign anyone else in free agency without cutting or trading more of his core of players. He COULD trade up, but that means that he's building in free agency next year. He's said repeatedly he likes building through the draft, not free agency.
And, of course, one has to ask whether, given the dead cap problem, it made sense to dump Dareus. I'm sure their answer would be that they'd seen enough of Dareus to conclude that he probably never would conform to their program.
McCarron? I don't think McCarron has a future, but what do I know? I don't know anything that Saban told Daboll about McCarron. I don't know what the Bills' film review tells them about McCarron. I just don't know.
I loved the title on a thread today, something about this being a good QB year because of the NUMBER of prospects, not because any are clearly great. I don't know what the Bills think about these guys.
So for me to get upset about the Bills trading up further or not trading up, etc. etc. doesn't make any sense to me. All we can do and wait and see what the people who know a lot more that we know decide to do.
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4 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:
I think they are ok with AJ as starter, as long as there’s a rookie QB waiting to take over. That’s why there’s no way the Bills don’t draft a 1st round QB.
I think that thinking is backwards. That means you bow to the pressure and draft someone just because you need a starter. What if, as I said, they don't like whats left after 10 picks? What if all that's left doesn't look like a starter in year one?
That ,ears they have to go with McCarron. Maybe they like him. I don't. If they don't like him, Foles is their option.
I mean, I don't know, but they're thinking about stuff like this at OBD. If theyre thinking about it, it could happen.
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2 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:
Not happening. Maybe if the Bills didn’t sign McCarron
Maybe you're right. McD has guaranteed money.
But I just don't think they want him as their starter. I think he's too flawed.
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As the first ten picks unfold, if the Bills don't like what they see left on the board, Beane and the Eagles might agree on price for Foles.
It might squeeze the Bills on the cap, but maybe that's when they deal Hughes for another pick.
I doubt the Bills want to go into 2018 with McCarron starting.
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4 hours ago, BillsFan17 said:
I'm telling you right now, anyone who thinks yesterday was lip service from Beane...
I think Beane saw an opportunity to shed salary and move up in the draft with Glenn.
There is a very strong possibility that move didn't entail him automatically moving up as was assumed.
Now the Jets moving up means the Giants can literally ask for anything and I sincerely doubt Beane gives up the cost.
Right. Fans want a top pick so they believe it's Beane's plan to get one.
Beane is just dealing when sees an opportunity. When the Colts called and asked if he would outbid the offer they had, Beane rightly said no. He Wil
Wait and see what opportunities come to him that make sense.
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Will the Jets cut Bridgewater?
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20 minutes ago, Rico said:
You snooze, you lose.
Better get Gettleman on the phone.
You think Beane is snoozing? He knows exactly what he's doing.
Look at what the Jets paid to move from 6 to 3. Now imagine what the Colts were asking from the Bills.
Should have gotten Cousins.
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14 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:
I guess we can have a contest to see who has a more blighted lot as a fan, sadly. We can take small consolation in the idea that Browns fans have it worse.
As for the questions you originally asked, if Glenn stays healthy you will be ecstatic with the trade because you gave up very little to get a pro bowl caliber LT. If he doesn’t see the field due to nagging injuries you’ll be pissed off.
Preston Brown is an enigma. He has had some mildly bright spots and some mildly dark ones. He strikes me more as a two down scheme fit that an all around good LB. If your staff picked him up with their eyes open to this he will be, as others have said, a solid but not stellar player.
A lot of Bills fans love Glenn. Let's face it: he was a second round pick who became expendable because the Bills got another second pick and who got traded essentially for a second round pick. That's who he is. Bengals will be satisfied they got him.
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10 minutes ago, Captain Murica said:
That is correct, he should have led them to a playoff victory if not for Pacman and Burfict losing their minds.
Oh, THAT was the playoff game he lost. That was a travesty.
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15 minutes ago, Buddo said:
If it wasn't for the fact that Glenn gets us up to the #12 pick, and consequently in range to move up for a top QB, if that's what the FO want to do, I think you would see a lot more angst about the move. When healthy, Glenn is a very good LT. He's also been a guy who has been no trouble whatsoever. Simply does his job. Fortunately, another 2nd round pick, in Dawkins, stepped up when Glenn was hurt last year, so while Glenn wasn't being made superfluous (we don't have a great RT, so tackles generally are still valuable to us), it was a trade that is about as close to a 'win, win' as you can get.
Brown is a generally smart, solid LB, who does a lot well, but lacks elite speed or athleticism. He won't let you down, but he won't make a lot of big plays either. He isn't going to be an answer to coverage woes, but he won't be a total liability there either. Another guy who hasn't been a problem either, in respect of character etc.
And this is a fair analysis of Glenn. The Bills had two left tackles and it probably wasn't going to work to move one to the right side. So the Bills decided to move the older guy with at least a potential health issue and the bigger cap hit. In a couple years both guys would be looking for leaft tackle money. Bills dealt with problem now.
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4 minutes ago, Buddo said:
AS a little bit of an afterthought, I don't think the majority of Bills fans would be complaining, if both Brown and Glenn were still on the roster. While the feeling seems to be that we can do better than Brown, especially from a speed pov, there isn't that much against him. Some of that, is partly predicated on seeing what McDermott has liked/used previously with the Panthers.
This is a good point. Both are good football players. They won't make you scream at the TV to get those guys off the field. You just won't hear Troy Aikman talking about them as difference makers.
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Brown is a student of the game and works hard. I think his dad played college and maybe pro ball and Preston has been watching film since he was eight. His problem is that he lacks premier speed and quickness. He's often a half step late on his drops into zone coverage, a half step late to the hole. He makes the right reads but doesn't get there in time. McDermott's defense demands speed from the middle linebacker, so he wasn't a fit. In earlier seasons I didn't notice that Browns lack of quickness was such a problem, so depending on you scheme he may be fine.
I think Glenn is overrated, but that's just me. He strikes me as a tweener. Not a big road grading tackle but not am elite pass blocker either. Solid, but not special. He was traded because a rookie taken in the second round (like Glenn) was just as good, despite his inexperience. And there's his health. Bills fans tired of the endless news about him in and out of the lineup. Maybe he's okay now. If he is, you'll be happy to have him, but he's not Orlando Pace.
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2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
Generally speaking, I'm with you. Don't go RB in the first at all.
The one exception, IMHO, is if you're in the situation the Browns are in now, where they're going to draft a rookie QB who's going to spend a minimum of two or three years starting for them. I think grabbing a Barkley in this situation makes your QB a lot more effective and a lot harder to defend and pressure. And maybe the Browns are in even a better situation to do that with all the draft picks they have.
I could understand it if they go that way, though I can't see almost any rationalisation for going Barkley at #1.
Maybe, but I think you're confusing having a good running back with having a good running GAME. The fundamental reason why teams shouldn't burn igh picks on running backs is that tou can have, and many teams do have, a good running game without a great running back. Contrast that with QBs and the passing game. You can't be consistently good at passing without the right qb.
It's the shiny new toy problem. GMS have to resist the urge to take the guy who looks good and focus on the guy who helps build towards long term success. That's why so many offensive linemen go in the first round.
2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:Did you see the article just recently on one reason why the Chiefs thought Mahomes was going to make it? They said that they found that he understood team dynamics really well and explained how they knew that.
They said that after practice, Mahomes, as many 2nd string QBs do, often grabbed a bunch of the receivers to go practice what he'd just seen. And they said that what impressed them was that when some of the first string WRs offered to work with him, he politely turned them down. He saw the starters as Smith's guys and didn't want to in any way be seen as trying to split the team or cause controversies. He just worked with the 2nd and 3rd string WRs.
Thought that was a really interesting point about team dynamics, but also about how later QBs certainly can do a lot to improve and get reps. Often reps that fans might never see.
Quickly tried to google it just now but couldn't find it. Couldn't come up with good enough keywords. Just saw it in the last 24 hours but now can't find it again.
I think that's a good example of all of the little things that breed success. Staff like that never shows up on Stat sheets. It doesn't make a bad qb a good qb. But it makes a difference in team building.
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2 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:
You make some good points. You are on a roll! Have you switched over to a new breakfast cereal? It seems to be working.
What gets to me Shaw is the number of professional outlets who think they will take Barkley at #1. I can't see any way that doing that would be the best thing to do. Even if he turned out to be Walter Peyton, I don't think Walyter Peyton would be Walter Peyton nowadays because they have slanted the rules so far in favor of the passing game. How can Barkley overcome the rules?
I see it like this in a way. Say I win a prize of a free vehicle at a big dealership. I can have any one I want. So I go and get a full size pickup truck with a crew cab and bed cover and 4 wheel drive because of how versatile that is for all my needs. Or I get me a Prius because they are very good cars and good for the planet.
But I pass on the Ferrari because it has two seats and is hard to get in and out of and it stinks in the snow and costs a fortune to maintain and I am sure I will soon lose my licence from speeding tickets.
Instead of taking the Ferrari and selling it and buying the truck and the Prius and a boat and taking a cruise and remodeling my kitchen.
Who is Walter Peyton? Some guy they cloned from Peyton Manning and Walter Payton? Now, THAT guy I'd take number one.
12 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:More random babble.
Darryl Talley has always been a favorite of mine because of how he played the game, how he protected Jim Kelly (by Re-Talley-ating) when teams would cross the line with Jimbo by slamming him down instead of a regular sack, and that he always wore that Spiderman stuff.
With revelations of one certain aspect of recent events at the combine making me angry, I played out a little picture in my mind that made me happier.
I pictured someone interviewing a team official of the past about what they learned about Darryl Talley, when they asked him if his mother was a prostitute during the interview process.
To which he replies, "We learned that whatever you do, never, ever, ask Darryl Talley if his mother is a prostitute"
Now that is REALLY random.
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1 hour ago, JoeF said:
That was the most cogent, straight-forward, succinct and intelligent press conference a Bills GM has given in the on-line era. Beane is not only privy but he is directing the evaluation process. For example, he admitted they make calls on guys they have no interest in just to gauge the value of a player with similar skills. He talked about having a floor (bargain price) and a ceiling for every UFA in whom they are interested. Fascinating process -- things we knew but never said publicly before.
Really like Beane and McDermott....
That's what I heard, too. A guy in charge who shares what he can and tells you when he can't. We can learn something about his job by listening to him tell us what he's thinking.
On top of that, what he says makes sense. That's REALLY refreshing.
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12 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:
I want a gm who says absolute gibberish when asked questions. "We look at the draft like a dog looks at the magna carta, our visual preceptors are always tuned in to the quantum fluctuation and the gamma photons. Our plan is to jimmy the johnsons and don the shulas. We will not be passive or aggressive we will be passive and or aggressive to varying degrees. In 2000 years when the kalaxans are first heard over the nebulonic speaker storms we will be the team we were meant to be..."
That's the way Rex Ryan talked. The problem was that he thought it meant something.
Karlos Dansby visit.
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Funny, but London Fletcher had 96, 78 and 63 tackles playing 16 games a season when he was Dansby's age.
If the Bills find a rookie MLB, who better to teach him?