Shaw66

Actually, what I care about is who's right come December. In September, Harmon might be right. After all, after the Jets game last year, the Bills came out absolutely smokin', and I don't expect that kind of start again. I think in December, you'll be right, because the young talent will be making an impact then.

Frankly, I think you need to have a little faith in Beane and McDermott. I hear all of what you say, and I saw Bado's language that you quoted. I think your fears are unfounded. McDermott doesn't put guys on the field for extended plays if they can't do what they're expected to do. They will move Coleman along at the pace that is appropriate for him. I don't know Xs and Os, but I think you're overly concerned about him getting off the line of scrimmage. First, in his first snaps in the regular season, the coaches are going to put him in position to get easy releases, however they do it. They're going to put him in positions where he can succeed. In other words, I am confident they understand the "path to success" idea, and they will be mindful of that. In other words, I don't think Bado's correct (surprise, surprise) that the Bills will throw him out there because they need a #1 receiver. He'll play as he's ready to play. I'm not ready to assume that Coleman will not have a major role early in the season. He may grow into that role faster than we think. But on the assumption that he simply isn't ready to carry a big load, then I can't tell you who the starting group will be. I think Beane's not done working on the receiver room, but if he is, it's because they're confident they can get it done in the front half of the season while they're waiting for Coleman to get up to speed. Personally, I think we'll be seeing a lot of Coleman by game six, if not earlier. I think they'll find enough ways for him to succeed that he'll start seeing the field regularly, and once that happens, he'll start making plays that get the attention of the defenses. I was just looking at his college stats. Maybe he benefitted from step down in competition at Florida State, but 11 receiving touchdowns in 50 catches is eye-opening, as is #3 nationally in punt returns. In his early snaps, I think the Bills are going to be looking for opportunities where he can get open with some room to run after the catch. I'm not worried. Sure, he could flop, but I don't think so.

Cook will have to be pretty good if he's going to keep Thomas and Tomlinson on the bench. Sometimes I think I've just gone completely homer on this stuff, but the fact is that I'm not only interested in seeing Davis on the field, I'm interested in seeing all of the top five picks on the field. By the end of the season we could see Coleman, Bishop and Van Pran-Granger starting, and Carter and Davis in significant roles.

You know, what you say is such good example of the fact that there different ways to look at a team. It's absolutely correct - how could the team be in a worse position now than they were then. They are much better off, physically. Of course, the real question is the roster as good today as it was a year ago at this time? That takes Bernard and Milano out of the comparison, and the secondary, too. Depends when you look. Nevertheless, I think your take is correct. That team last year won 5 out of six down the stretch - or whatever - to make the playoffs and win the division, and they did with the team you describe. If those guys, in that shape, could be that good, these guys have a chance to be much better.

Now we're starting to find out why this guy was drafted. This guy has some outstanding physical attributes that we've all seen on film, and it's becoming clear that he has a real head on his shoulders. We're seeing multiple interviews that show his maturity, his dedication, his competitiveness, and now this. It's a one-minute seminar in the details of pass receiving. He's a serious dude. I'm realizing that Keon is more than I first imagined.

Why? The man's life has changed totally in two years. In such situations, some people reevaluate what's important to them. Happens often. I wasn't making a prediction, but under these circumstances, anything is possible.

It just makes me sad, for all of them. Kim, Terry, the children. Terry's going to do what he has to do, whatever that may be. He may stay the course, he actually be thinking about getting out.

I don't recall anything from Beane about moving up in the fourth. He said he wanted to move up in the second to get Bishop, but he couldn't find a dance partner. Fortunately, Bishop fell to him.

All indications are that McGovern is the center and Edwards is the left guard going into camp, and in both cases it's there job to lose. Going into camp, I'd guess that The Bills like McGovern over Edwards, and like that tandem at Center and Guard, better than any tandem with Van Pran-Granger. It's really that tandem that matters. McGovern is probably better at guard than Edwards, so the battle in camp probably is McGovern and Edwards vs. Van Pran-Granger and McGovern. And Jake, Saturday wasn't half bad. For sheer toughness (arm length aside) Torrence, Van Pran-Granger and McGovern suits me just fine.

I mentioned something the other day that I liked about this draft, which is that they took guys with significant upside throughout the draft. Coleman, Bishop, Carter, Davis, Van Pran-Granger, Ulofoshio, Solomon, Grable, Hardy, and Clayton. Each one is a guy who, if he pans out, will end up being a bargain, and each is a guy who actually could pan out. .

Fifth round picks usually are projects of some sort. This is no exception. Have the Bills invested in an arm-stretching machine yet?

I have to agree. Guy's started at center in a big-time college program, so it's practically a given that he has the mental skills to play the position now. Given that, it's telling that he fell to the fifth round. It must be clear to the scouts and GMs that his physical limitations raise real questions about whether he ever can succeed in the NFL, let alone start as a rookie. If he wins the starting job as a rookie, he will be the steal of the draft.

I listen to him and I just want this guy on my team.

I think we can look back now and say what we saw in the second half were actually the beginnings of what Brady would like to do. I think that's what Beane's work shows us. If Brady (and McDermott) didn't want the shift we saw when Brady took over, if they had wanted something different, Beane wouldn't have take Samuel, Coleman, and Davis. I think Davis sends a strong signal that the Bills intend to be a serious running team. Davis will take touches from Johnson - I think he will take over the #2 RB role, and I think he will emerge as a different but nearly equally valuable running back as Cook. And I think having a solid #2 was important because they want to run. And Beane clearly was not looking for the killer big downfield threat at receiver. It's exactly the discussion you and I had before the draft. Beane's given Brady two more guys in the Shakir-Kincaid mold - good athletes who can do everything, two more guys who fit in the style that we think we were seeing in the second half last season. Now, maybe it's all just Beane, McDermott, and Brady being practical - they didn't have a stud receiver in February and couldn't expect to find one, so rather than dream about a receiver room that wasn't possible, give where they were, they are building the best thing they can with what they have. Regardless of how they got there, however, I think the guys the Bills have added tell us something about how they intend to play. Whether it works remains to be seen.

PB - This is really good stuff. I don't agree with it all, but even where we disagree, it's getting to the heart of the matter. First, overall, I think it has to come down to coaching. Player personnel to some extent, but coaching primarily. In some ways, that's the point of my essay - Beane's job is to present the HC with a better mix of players than the HS coach can expect to get out of the random selection of kids in his school. We can argue about this player or that player, this trade or that signing, but in the end, Beane's delivering a pretty good collection of players, and the coach's job is to figure out how to win. We've pretty much all felt over the past few years that the roster was good enough to win it all, and they didn't. Roster could have been better, but it was good enough. After listening to Beane for several years, I don't think it's possible to "plan" personnel the way you say. There's too much that the GM can't control. Beane's probably been thinking since October that he needed a new #1 receiver, but he wasn't thinking that a year ago. He might have had a crystal ball, sure, but he really didn't have any way to know for sure that Diggs would go sideways in 2023 and then kind of separate himself from the team. If he had some sort of plan for the receiver room before then, it went out the window. So, starting in October, he's thinking about what he's going to do about a receiver. But by then, his cap situation was determined, his draft situation was more or less determined. He wasn't going to be able to get a stud rookie. There wasn't a stud veteran who was available. What does he do? He talks to the coaches about what sort of receiving help they could use, given where Shakir and Kincaid are in their development, what kind of offense they want to run, etc. Beane comes up with some ideas, and then he does the best he can. It's hard to stick to a plan in that kind of situation. So, he comes up with what he can, in this case Coleman, and he already got Samuel. Pretty good choices, guys with some interesting skills, interesting personality, and in many respects they're good building blocks to work with. They're both different from Shakir and Kincaid, and they probably make sense in terms of what Brady and McDermott said they'd like to do with the passing game. I think that demonstrates that Beane might have an overall philosophy that he's following, but it's not really a plan. Your primary point however, seems to be the truly critical point: the coaches seem to be quite good at taking what Beane gives them year to year and building a team that is successful in the regular season, but those teams never have been very successful at playoff football. My view for the past few years has been that McDermott's philosophy, and therefore Beane's player selection, works well in the regular season and not so well in the playoffs. McDermott's philosophy is that his his team will be good at everything, able to play any kind of game, adapt from week to week. Pass one week, run the next. Blitz one week, defend the next. The philosophy demands that the Bills have jack-knife players: o-linemen who can pass block one week, run block the next. It means you have a guy like Spencer Brown at right tackle. In the receiver room, it means you want to have five or six guys, all of whom can do a lot of things pretty well - run routes, catch contested balls, run after catch, block, etc. And McDermott is good at running that kind of team, as we've seen. It makes a team resilient, to use the popular word. But the playoffs are different. In the playoffs, there may be one or two teams that are multi- like your team is, and then it's just mano-a-mano. But there are also are teams that are very good at some things and just okay at other things. The Bills haven't been good enough to stop what the other team does really well and haven't been outstanding enough to take advantage of what the other team does not so well. It's like the Bills are stuck in some sort of high-end mediocrity across all aspects of their game. It's been that way on offense some times, but it's particularly been that way on defense. What's to be done about it? Although I've been saying for years it's primarily about coaching (and I believe it is), on the personnel side I think (as many other do) that pursuit of these jack-knife players means that the Bills roster doesn't have true game changers (other than Allen). There's no Chris Jones. We hoped Diggs would be one, but he never quite got there. The safeties weren't outstanding, but they were outstanding within the system. It's hard to be that guy from Milano's position. They hoped Miller would be that guy, and the Bills have had bad luck with him. Maybe he comes back. Rousseau and Oliver are good examples - both probably top 10 at their positions, and excellent at what they do, but they're top 10, not top 3. Maybe Beane and McDermott don't think they need a standout playmaker, but I do. On the personnel side, that's what I think. The coaching side is, in my mind, more of a problem. I think it's really hard to get the jack-of-all-trades philosophy to win in the playoffs. In particular in recent years, it's been necessary not just to be really good, but to raise your game to the level of offensive and defensive excellence that Chiefs have had. What Reid has done in KC puts him, I think, way up on the list of all-time great coaches. His teams always seem to have an answer. It's scheme and creativity on the coaching side, and it's outstanding playmaking on the personnel side. But it's mostly coaching. I think, and it appears that several posters here agree, that regardless of what one might think about the players Beane has assembled, they are good enough to win the Super Bowl. The potential is there to have a top-three offense. The defense may be a little weak. I think a lot depends on Bishop and Edwards, and on Miller. I'm assuming Milano and Bernard will be back, and I actually expect that we'll see some great stuff from Dorian Williams. I'm more optimistic than most, because I have more confidence in McDermott than most people. McDermott is not about doing the same thing over and over and expecting to get better results. His system is to examine, constantly, what works and what doesn't and to make changes. I like to think that he knows what I've just said, and he's working at changing those things that haven't worked. He is, for example, challenging Brady to build an offense that is feared around the league, and they have a vision of what that will look like. He has a vision for what his defense will look like. (On defense, I think he now has what he had in Carolina - a linebacker corps that can drive a great defense.) But my optimism doesn't win football games. McDermott 's approach may make sense, but sooner or later has to win in the playoffs. He could use another player or two, but fundamentally it's up to him to raise his game.

Wow! That's really great. Thanks. It's a lot to chew on. I was interested that you ended with catch rate. Last season, for the first time since he'd been in Buffalo, Diggs seemed unreliable. Before then, if the ball arrived almost any where he could get his arms to, he was catching it. He wasn't like that last season. I heard some media guy, maybe coach, talking one time about how on offense, the best way to be successful was to have (1) zero negative plays, and (2) have very few plays where you get zero. That is, make every play a positive play. For Josh, that means take the easy completion, even if it's shorter. For the receivers, it's catch every ball. Samuel and Coleman should be a big upgrade over Diggs and Davis in that department. Also interesting that they moved toward a more balanced attack. I would expect that balance is important to McDermott, and maybe even that he told Brady to be less pass-happy. I'm getting interested in this offense. And, in the second-last or last game of the season, at Oakland, Rutkowski was playing. He wasn't really a QB; he was the emergency QB and there was no one else. Late in the game, Inside the 10, late in the game, a touchdown wins, Rutkowski fumbled and the Bills lost, thereby giving the Bills the #1 pick. Rutkowski scores, and OJ would have been an Eagle, I think.

Interesting take. Makes sense. I like the look of Ray Davis. We saw the running game beginning to emerge last season, and I can see it progressing. The point is that the offense is going to be what McDermott wants - an offense that attacks all of the real estate that possibly can be attacked - from sideline to sideline, from five yards behind the line of scrimmage to sixty yards downfield. I think we're going to see a varied attack, dramatically varied. Curtis Samuel IS going to run running plays out of the backfield. Cook Is going to split wide. Before Coleman is fully up to speed, they are going to find plays to get the ball to him, and let him do his run after the catch thing. The objective is that it will look like the 49ers or the Chiefs - they always seem to be attacking your weakness, wherever it is. Put another way - your defense is deployed in a way that stops your attack in certain areas, and those offenses understand how to attack the open areas. Davis wasn't versatile enough to fit into such an offense. And Diggs wasn't emotionally able, wasn't a team guy enough to reshape his game to be versatile. Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel, Cook all have shown they play that versatility game, and I think that's who Coleman is, too. Brady's playing mad scientist all spring, and we can only wait to see what he cooks up.

Billy's still alive, so far as I know. I hope he doesn't mind that I use his name and number. I chose the name to honor and remember one of the all-time great Bills. And yes, 1968 was an awful year. So awful that the Bills got the #1 overall pick.

I think that teams that believe the Bills can't get deep will be looking at the backside of Samuel, Shakir, Coleman, and Cook. I think receivers are going to be crossing all day long, with one or another slipping deep on various plays. Someone will go over 1000 yards. Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, or Coleman. Three others will get between 600 and 800. Cook and Knox will add a few hundred yards each, and there'll be miscellaneous other guys contributing. Allen will get comfortably over 4000 again this season.

Sorry, I am not Billy Shaw. I picked the name to honor Robert Shaw and the movie he made in 1966, A Man for All Seasons.

That's an interesting take. I have trouble seeing Shakir and Kincaid leading the way. They both seem like complementary pieces. Does anyone know of a good in-depth breakdown on the 2023 passing game? First half and second half were so dramatically different. Was it just Brady going in another direction; was Diggs slumping, or did they move away from him intentionally? Kincaid first half/second half?

That's interesting, what you say about Samuel. I have trouble seeing him having some kind of career year. I see him as being the player he's been for several years, but in an offense that gives him more opportunities. It's interesting to me to think of him as you suggest. As I try to visualize the passing attack, I'm asking myself. "Who is going to be the guy who's the premier guy, the feature guy. Not that he dominates so much with big numbers, but is the guy we think of as the go-to guy? Because Diggs was that guy, and that guy is important. That guy could be Kincaid. He doesn't strike me as a leader, as a feature guy. He may grow into more of a leadership role this year, but his play would have to step up from last season. As you say, it could be Samuel. I don't see Samuel that way. I think Samuel needs a premier guy next to him for Samuel to be valuable. Hard to see Shakir as that guy. And that leaves Coleman. Who knows? Maybe Coleman and Samuel, together, present a combination of match-up problems that forces defenses to reshape, which in turn gives Kincaid and Shakir room to operate. That's definitely an offense where targets would be distributed more evenly, as you say.

I think you're both saying the same things: Diggs was a premier receiver for several years, and he certainly was a key part of the offense. It's not very likely that we're going to see that kind of production in many coming seasons. And although I get that Diggs might simply be past the point where he can be again what he was, I expect a good year from him. He had special motivation when he came to Buffalo. He was motivated to show that the problem in Minnesota was Minnesota. 2024 he will be motivated in the same sense, to prove it wasn't him, it was Buffalo. I think the fire that burns in him has been reignited. The problem for Diggs is that his body's ability to respond to the fire is declining.

Beane and McDermott said when they came to Buffalo that their objective was to make the team better each year - continuous improvement. Remarkably, they seem to be doing just that.

Yeah. There are many ways to skin the cat. They did need a running back, and they got a guy who might have what it takes to replace Cook eventually. And I don't particularly like a plan that says "we need a player, and we'll take two to be sure we get one who works out." You're almost certainly not going to keep both of them, so you're using two picks to fill one position. Not a fan of that, but I can't say it's wrong. Going your way, they would need a running back in free agency. Going the way they did, they would need a receiver. Kind of six of one, half dozen of the other. As someone said, Beane had a plan and he executed it The roster now looks pretty good to me. He had a variety of other ways he might have gone, too. Bottom line for me is that Beane knows what he's doing.