Shaw66

It demonstrates the power of video. Out impressions of a player are shaped a lot by video, and this video of what probably isn't a touchdown changes the impression we get. However, the totality of the camp reports we are seeing and hearing is that the guy is doing great.

Oh, I just saw this. It's really good. I get your point. I like it. But I still don't buy it. Would Josh have failed in Cleveland? I don't think so. I think you look at Mayfield and Manziel and others who have been there - they all were flawed QBs, and they were seen to be when they moved to other places. Mayfield would have been better in a better situation, but he still would have been a weak-armed guy who is a great competitor. Would it have been harder for Josh in Cleveland? Yes. But Buffalo wasn't all that great. McDermott didn't want to play Josh as a rookie, and couldn't even get through one game game before he needed him. McDermott's whole plan for nurturing him went out the window before October. Absolutely. I agree. The whole point, that I think you and I agree on, is that there would have been pretty much NO circumstances where Allen wouldn't have succeeded. He's too good, physically, mentally, character-wise, any other way you want to look at it, not to have made it. He is, as I said, transcendent. And, miraculously, after 60 years of being a fan of this team, this transcendent QB is a Buffalo Bill. How great is that?

Thanks. Great response. I absolutely agree that coaching is important, and I don't doubt that Josh has been helped along the way by the coaches he's had with the Bills. I just think there's a limit, and I think when you're talking about a transcendent talent, which is what Josh is, coaching can't ruin him. It may limit his success, but it can't ruin him. Josh was going to be a successful QB in the NFL, regardless of which team drafted him, because he simply is too talented and too smart and too well grounded to have been a bust.

If he played like Manuel played, the Bills wouldn't have exercised the 5th year option and they certainly wouldn't have tagged him. He would have been gone after 4 years and somebody with some brains would have hired him and allowed him to be the player that he is.

Or he would have left the hell-hole that somehow couldn't figure out what to do with him. That is, if for some mysterious reason he didn't become a star on his first team, he would have starred on his second team. OJ is the non-QB example. He languished in Buffalo for three seasons before Ralph figured out that he must have idiots for coaches. He brought Saban back, and VOILA! Hall of Famer. If Ralph hadn't made the move, OJ would have been on another team, and he would have blossomed. It simply isn't possible to coach that kind of talent OUT of a player.

Oh, wow, I don't agree. Yes, no amount of coaching would have made EJ into Josh, but I think in a different environment, EJ could have developed into a journeyman backup and even passable NFL starter. EJ could have been Gino Smith in a better environment. But I don't think for a minute that Josh could have been EJ. I think there are very few circumstances under which Josh would have been a feared QB. He is naturally a better thrower than all but maybe a dozen QBs in the history of the league, and he is naturally a better runner than all but maybe a half dozen QBs since the 80s, when passing became more important. No matter how badly his rookie season might have gone, some serious coach would have gotten a hold of him. There was no denying, from the very beginning, that Josh made plays. You want an example? Steve Young. In his second of two seasons at Tampa, the only season he was the full-time starter, his passer rating was 65.5. The 49ers traded for him, even though they had Montana. In part time duty for the next several years, he had passer ratings of 120, 72, 120, and 92. Then they unloaded Montana, and as a starter Young's passer rating was over 100 in six of the next eight seasons. The 49ers, and probably most of the rest league, knew that Young was better than he showed in Tampa. (The Packers trading for Favre is another example.) If Josh had statistical performances for two seasons like Manuel, but if he did the things he can do - running and passing, teams would have been beating down the Bills door to trade for him. Josh was always going to be Josh, even though most people didn't recognize it when he was coming out of college. No coaches in the NFL could have done so poorly with Josh that the rest of the league would have given up on him.

Frankly, I think this idea that players' futures are determined by the quality of their coaching is way overblown. Wherever Allen went, his exceptional talent would have been recognized. Either his coaches would have recognized it, or he would have moved on to different coaches through free agency. I mean, we all could see that he was special in preseason games his rookie year. He made throws in preseason that you just don't see the average NFL QB make. Great coaching can help average guys become really good, and those kind of guys might have their careers saved by coaching. Allen was going to be a star, either immediately or soon. Many people didn't see it when he was in college, and I don't fault them for that. But anyone who didn't see it in his rookie season has a problem with his football judgment.

And that, my friend, is why this season is all on McDermott and Brady.

One way or another, that's been the discussion about the receivers since the day Diggs left. Think about it: Cook isn't McCaffrey, but he's similar - dual-threat guy. The Samuel twins - Deebo and Curtis. Line him wide, put him the slot, run him out of the backfield. Throw the ball all over the field, to many different receivers. Why wouldn't the Bills want to play like the 49ers? If they can spread the ball around effectively, they can pass as well as the Niners, and they have a big, big edge at quarterback. Purdy is like Burrow - outstanding on script, with good decisions and pinpoint throws. Off-script, however, Josh is a monster advantage.

It's highlights, so we don't his drops or missed assignments, but Hollins has made some pretty nice contested catches. And his size is impressive. He looks like a better version of Gabriel Davis. What I liked best about this video, however, is how obvious Tua's limitations are. Watch how he has to wind up to get any zip on the ball, which translates into a slow delivery and the inability to attack tight windows. As soon as the highlights switch from the Dolphins to the Raiders and Carr is throwing, you can see what a real NFL quarterback looks like. Quick release, plenty of pace on the ball.

Yes, because of depth, but that's not what had everyone concerned in the summer. In the summer, people were frantic about having even a decent starter, and that's what some folks are sounding like here. Last year, despite the fans' concerns, the Bills had one of the best pairs of linebackers in the league. Bernard even was able to carry the Bills once Milano went down. Fans completely misperceived the situation in the summer.

This sounds like the same sort of fretting that dominated discussion here all last summer, but the subject was linebacker, not safety. People were frantic. The tenor of the comments was that the Bills didn't have anyone who could play MLB, and why hadn't Beane done anything about it all spring. Finally, I asked whether it occurred to anyone that Beane and McDermott, who sere seeing a lot more of the guys on the roster than we were, might know something we don't. People kept right on complaining. Then Bernard started the season, and everyone quieted down. I'd suggest that maybe McBeane have a pretty good idea what's happening at safety. They apparently could have Hyde if they wanted him, but apparently they don't think it's necessary.

Yeah, I don't see Benford losing the job to anyone.

Wow. I'm wrong. In my mind, they played bigger than that. All the more to the point. Bills need at least one of Rapp, Hamlin, Bishop, (and possibly Edwards) to step up. One can carry a weaker one to some extent, as we've seen over a few years when one of Poyer and Hyde was out. Two stepping up replicates Hyde and Poyer, and that's not improbable.

They don't have classic deep speed in the competition, and they're running against a defense that is designed never to give up a deep ball. Makes some sense. I think the Bills have the speed necessary to take advantage of defensive weakness in formation or assignment, but not speed that dictates defensive posture whenever that speed is on the field.

What? Bills list Bishop at 207. I doubt he's 10 pounds heavier than Poyer and Hyde.

Let me say a couple things. First, there's an interesting discussion of the safeties going on here. Thanks to everyone. I'm looking at it optimistically. I'm counting on McDermott - in fact the safeties this season is a good way to see if McDermott is a master. This is what Belichick did in his defense throughout the Patriots' success - get really solid but not superstar athletes and coach them to execute the coaches' plan. I think that's who Hyde and Poyer were - excellent football players but not stars, and McDermott valued them because they really invested in the plan - all of the details of execution of a complicated scheme. In terms of talent, I'd guess Rapp and Bishop compare favorably. Strictly physically, which pair would you prefer? I'd give the nod to Poyer and Hyde, because I think they physically a little tougher, but I'm okay with the swap. And I wouldn't be writing off Rapp for lack of discipline or whatever, or Hamlin off for lack of size. I think you have to be around McDermott for a while, experience how his defense is working. It takes time. So, I'm expecting more from Rapp this season, because now he has a full season under his belt. And I haven't been counting on Hamlin, but this discussion changed my mind about him. Give him some time. 2022 was essentially his first season, and I thought he struggled. And I don't count 2023 at all. I think 2023 was like an extended training camp for Hamlin, because that's what he needed to recover - it was in some ways like he was going through his rookie season all over again. In other words, I don't think we can assume much of anything from Hamlin based on 2022. He could very well be better than any of us think. It certainly is possible, of course, that Rapp doesn't drink the Kool-Aid or whatever, that Hamlin simply just isn't big enough or good enough to do it, that Bishop is slow to develop, that Edwards - whose out now - doesn't rise to the level necessary to be an answer. Any or all of those could happen. Still, I think the chances are pretty good that there's one good (good like Hyde and Poyer) safety in that group, and the chances are okay that there are two.

Give him time. His strength is his brain. If he had been physically dominant in college he would have been drafyed by day 2. He has to learn to compete phyaically at this level.

A lot of people are saying good and interesting things about this subject. One of many is this point - leaders do have to be their "authentic selves." The point is not that Josh has to become a different person; it is that he has to learn how to command the respect of those who must take direction from him, which is everyone on the offense. (The defense, too, because Josh has to be the top dog among all the players, but first things first, and that's the offense.) And don't think for a minute that McDermott isn't talking to him about this. As I said earlier, we've heard often from McBeane about how they need a veteran leader in every position room, and we hear over and over again from younger guys who understand that they are transitioning into positional leadership roles. Bernard talked about it a week or two ago. So, if McDermott is talking to all those positional guys about their leadership roles and how to grow into those roles, we can be sure that he's talking to Josh. McDermott doesn't leave anything to just happen.

I think it's an interesting problem that Josh has. Graham may have overstepped a bit in characterizing what he thought he heard Pegula say, but I think his point is fundamentally correct. Josh can't be the leader of a gang of junior high school kids, goofing around outside the soda shop. Leaders of men, leaders of organizations, necessarily must stand apart, at least a bit, from the members of the gang, because leaders of men have to hold men accountable for their actions. Yes, there may be different styles. If I think about Manning, Brady, and Mahomes, their demeanor on field may have been different - that is, they had different styles, but in each case it was pretty clear that each demand accountability from his teammates. It's very difficult, if not impossible, to be one of the guys and hold people accountable. I think that Diggs, and Coleman's comment about Josh being goofier than Coleman, are two examples of why Josh needs to be more of the boss. In a discussion here a week ago about Diggs, we talked about how Diggs was a problem for Allen. Diggs wanting the ball put pressure on Allen to look his way, which means that Allen's ability to run the offense as designed was hampered in a way. Diggs could get away with being demanding because Josh wasn't the CEO; in effect, the atmosphere around Allen allows other players to exercise some authority, some power, some control over what's going on, and that shouldn't happen. And once a guy takes some of that power, the way that Diggs did, it's hard to take it back, and everyone on the team sees that the QB doesn't have complete control. Coleman wasn't trying to take control by the goofy comment. In fact, unconsciously he may have been saying that Josh needs to take control. He sounded surprised that Josh could be goofy. Why would he be surprised? Because his sense of how football works is that the QB is supposed to be in control, not making fart jokes in study hall. No one on the Patriots offense told Brady how something was going to work. No one told Peyton. And it looks to me like no one tells Mahomes, either. As I said, their styles differ, but in the case of all three, the QB was indisputably in control. Think about the difference between Kelce and Diggs. I have no doubt that on the sideline Kelce will talk to Mahomes, and sometimes he may be animated about what he's trying to communicate, but he still understands that Patrick is going to make decisions the way Patrick thinks they have to be made. Diggs was different; Diggs didn't always seem prepared to accept what Josh decided. If Josh didn't do it the way Diggs wanted, sometimes Diggs reacted. That can't be the way it works - the QB's decision making has to be accepted absolutely by every player; otherwise, someone else (Diggs, for example) is sharing responsibility for leading, the other players see it, and then the players begin to have doubts about who to follow. Players understand that the head coach gets absolute respect. He's the boss. But there are leaders at every level, and at every level the leaders have to have the respect of the players they lead. McBeane want a leader in every position room. It's something they've always said is key to a solid team. Even more critical is leadership of the entire offense - the leader in every position room has to show respect and follow the leader of the offense. In a sense, Dawkins and McGovern and Shakir and Samuel and Hollins and Cook all have to respect and follow Josh and show the other guys in their room that respect. And Josh has to behave in a way that quietly but forcefully demands that respect. When Josh says they're going to do something, everyone on the offense has to respect that decision, and no one can be thinking in the back of his head, "I wonder what Diggs thinks about that." And the only way that can happen is if Josh behaves like the boss, which means that he has to set himself apart from the gang. He can hang with them, he can joke with them, but everyone in the room has to understand that the moment Josh says jump, they're all jumping.

It might have taken me a while to get their, but yeah, Fitzpatrick. He's had interesting experiences and he could tell the story well. For example, who else in the NFL has spent four years in college with some of the smartest people in the world, a college where the jocks actually take classes. Then he follows it up with an amazing pro career, where he accomplished way beyond what anyone expected of him. And he was funny and reflective at the same time. Remember he wore all that weird red hairy mask think when he was giving his speech at a roast - must have been Eric Wood? And stories about this family and moving all the time. Yes, Fitz! Do it!

It's not a memoir, and I've already read it, but there's a biography of Bo Jackson out that is an interesting insight into a unique individual. That's what would be true about the coaches. I read the Belichick biography, and it's really interesting. Better than most of the player stuff. And I have a friend who wrote his memoir about being a big-time golf agent. Rainmaker. Also good stuff. Really interesting stuff in books by the people who spent a lifetime thinking about their sport at the highest level.

That's great stuff. Makes a lot of sense. I'm not following the roster closely enough to be able to evaluate the talent, but I do have to say that MVS's story, the theme of which is "inconsistent talent," has a ring of truth to it. And what the Bills want is consistent talent. That's the theme for Coleman and Samuel and Shakir. So, yes, I get it. Shavers? I don't know enough to have a point of view. Clayton? I had a different darkest-of-dark-horse story for Clayton, and that is special teams. We haven't seen it in action yet, but the new kickoff rules value big, quick guys who are violent at random points of attack. So, having an athletic rugby player who likes to hit people, whether kicking or receiving, is an asset. And he's on more or less the same learning curve as all the other guys. If he can play kickoffs, then teach him to cover punts. Of course, that might be a dozen reasons why he just can't get up to speed - I get that, but he's a guy who actually could be a surprise winner.

That is great! Thanks very much. And I think, yes, all signs pont to the latter and making Josh take that syep in yerms of decision making. Think about Tom Brady. At yhe snap he always seemed to know where to go with ball. He didn't care who it was; he simply went where the open man would be which was dictated by formatuin and defense. If your QB can do it, it's take what they give you, and they're always giving you something.

Thanks. Interesting stuff. I agree about Coleman's skill set. Having him roaming all over the field from the slot could make him a nightmare for defenses to deal with. Frankly, last season I had hoped we'd see more of that from Kincaid, but his role seemed more limited. If the Bills can get more from him this season, then I like your vision of those two guys running out of the slot. Fact is, those two lined up together almost anywhere along the line is a problem for defenses.