Jump to content

Shaw66

Community Member
  • Posts

    9,251
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by Shaw66

  1. 25 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

    There is an incorrect narrative on this board that “McDermott doesn’t play rookies,” all stemming from the Elam situation, that drives a lot of those takes.

    I used to believe that take, too.   I think it was true, but I think as the team has grown, things have changed.   One thing McDermott and Beane said when they got here, something that I didn't understand, and I still don't understand, is that as players learn the system and come back for year two, they play at higher level and learn more.  Collectively, the team's intelligence and understanding of the system grows from year to year.   There is a team learning curve, and somehow the veterans pull the newcomers up the curve, so that things it took Poyer and Hyde years to learn, for example, are learned by Hamlin and the like in a year or two.  I don't understand how that works, but it apparently does.  The result is that when the team was playing at a lower level, it was harder for rookies to get into the lineup, because the veterans were still working their own way up the learning curve.   Now that the team has matured, it gets easier. to pull guys along.  So, Kincaid and Torrence both walked into camp and pretty quickly were able to play with the vets.  

     

    It's what we saw with the Patriots.   Year after year, some guy would get injured for the Patriots and some rookie you've never heard of would move into the lineup and play just fine.  Why?   Because Belichick's system somehow worked to have the vets pull the rookies up to their level.  

     

    It's a beautiful thing.  

     

     

  2. I have a lot of confidence in Beane and McDermott in player selection.   They have a very good understanding of the kind of players they need at each position, and they do a good job at figuring out which available players fit.  (That's what's so shocking about Elam.)

     

    I think they knew exactly what they were getting in Kincaid and how they were going to use him.  I think people who thought he would be below 500 yards misperceived how good McDermott and Beane are at this.  Receivers don't have huge trouble transitioning from college to the pros, so it was more or less a no-brainer that Kincaid would play a lot and catch a lot of balls.  That's what they got him for, and they knew he could do it. 

     

    As I said in the other thread, I think he needs to bulk up a bit.   Mostly what I think he needs to improve is his route running, particularly as plays break down.  I mean, he runs all those short routes pretty nicely, but he still has work to do connecting with Allen.  The guys who play close to the QB - the tight ends and slot guys - can become really valuable when they develop a high level of communication with the QB, like we see with Kelce and Mahomes, and like we saw with Allen and Beasley.  I think Kincaid has more to learn and will benefit from another year with Allen.  I also think he'll benefit if Brady is as creative as we hope. 

    • Like (+1) 1
  3. I think you can make the case that the Bills could play the season (barring injury) with guys currently on the roster, but I don't think the 22 starters actually are on the roster.  

     

    In the first place, it's quite likely that their first and second round picks will start, if not in September, at least by November.  

     

    Just off the top of my head, I'd say this:

     

    Maybe the DT starters, technically, are on the roster (Jones and Oliver), but the rotation guys are like starters, and I'd guess there's another DT coming, and an edge.  

     

    I think a starting safety is coming, somehow (unless my theory about Taron Johnson moving turns out to be correct, in which case the safeties are on the roster, but one of the three starting corners is not).

     

    I don't think the starting wideout is on the roster.  I just don't see the Bills going with Diggs-Samuels-Shakir.  Maybe Shorter comes out of nowhere, but I doubt it.  

     

    There might be a guard who shows up.  

     

    Whether all those guess are right, I don't know.   Only one of them has to be right to prove that all the starters are not yet on the roster. 

  4. 14 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

    Latham? Maybe Braswell?

     

    A bit surprised with all the Pro Days that happened yesterday that's the one he was at. Bama has some good prospects but don't seem to fit our glaring needs on paper. What's he up to?

    Alabama is where you go to find late-round picks and undrafted free agents.  They recruit more of the best athletes in the country than almost anyone. 

    • Like (+1) 7
    • Agree 4
    • Thank you (+1) 1
  5. 1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:


    Now for the discussion part. It’s not an overly optimistic highlight reel. He was clearly great in college and Beane wanted this dimension for the team. However, for a pass catching TE, he had numerous drops and very rarely broke tackles. His TD production was -in a word, disappointing. But the pure talent was on display for most of the season. With Knox taking a pay cut recently, Dalton is now clearly TE1. But he can and needs to improve. He is a willing blocker though his relatively slight frame doesn’t scare anyone and is more of a ‘get in the way’ type blocker than physical blocker. While he made numerous eye-popping catches, he underwhelmed in contested catches where his size should have been a benefit. He displays deft footing but he doesn’t use this to break tackles when defenders dive at his lower legs. It was obvious by seasons’ end that if a defender was closing in on him, he was going to be tackled -even though there were opportunities to challenge the tackler with changing speed or direction, stiff arming or lowering his shoulder -something Knox is proficient at.

    I’m hoping these were discussed with him in his end of season meeting with coaches as aspects he needs to improve on. Bulking up a bit is essential, but also hand fighting, better body control to fend off would-be tacklers near him and more gumption/desire to finish the play in the Endzone. 
    Yes, he set team records for catches by a TE and quickly became a starter. But to know the full history of the team, is to know TE has always been an afterthought. I can count on 1 hand our very best TE’s, from Warlick to -well, Knox..

     

    The potential is certainly there, but the necessary upgrades to his skills are on him to develop. To me, he’s kinda like a ‘golly gee! This is great playing in the NFL!’ kid. I’d like to see more of a determined approach to his craft to realize his capabilities at this level. He isn’t there yet.

     

    What say you?

    I say you've taken an overly pessimistic view, in several respects.  

     

    He had 670 yards in receptions, which was right around where I expected him to be.  That's a nice total for a rookie, especially for a tight end.  A rookie wideout who starts has an opportunity for some chunk plays that a tight end doesn't get.  So, I'd say his production was pretty good, and I expect it will improve.  

     

    Next, I'd say that "he rarely broke tackles" is unfair.   A large number of his catches were essentially dumpoffs over the middle where he was surrounded by defenders.   He's not a big guy who's going to drag those tacklers.   Still, he always goes down going forward, and he gets just about all the yards he can.  He had several plays where he made a move to avoid a tackler and get extra yards, and in particularly he made several to get the first down.    He's not a great open field runner, but he gets ahead in space before he goes down.  

     

    Drops.  I agree about that.  He's excellent when he's open, but he isn't so good on contested catches.  In a crowd, he doesn't seem to come down with it as often as he should. 

     

    One thing that was apparent was how often Allen's throws were off target.  Some of his drops really were throws where Allen missed the market, and some of his best catches also were on inaccurate throws.  

     

    I agree about bulking up.  He looks like he could carry another ten pounds, and then would make him tougher to bring down. 

     

    I wouldn't call him a disappointment at all.  However, if he's never better than he was as a rookie, I will be disappointed.  My hope for 2024 is that Brady will have a creative passing attack with Diggs, Samuel, and Shakir attacking all over the field, short and long, and with Kincaid finding plenty of holes as the defenders chase the speed guys.  

    • Like (+1) 3
    • Agree 5
    • Thank you (+1) 1
  6. 1 minute ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

     

    As another poster referenced, he has 8 INT, 5 Fumble Recoveries and 4 TDs  in 28 starts.   

    Bonus 3 playoff INTs.   7 tackles and a Pass Defended in KC SB win 

     

    He can line up at FS, SS or Nickel 

    Exactly the kind of characteristics McD likes.  3rd round pick.  Still, only a one-year deal, so he will be competing for a job. 

    • Like (+1) 4
  7. 9 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

    Ed Wang

    They kind of existed simultaneously. The mysterious answer to this burning question needs to be someone who only barely crosses over with Kyle. 1-2 years max.

    Well, if those are the rules, okay, but I think Fred is actually the answer.   I think Fred was the emotional heart and sole of the team until Kyle took over, overlap or not.   

     

    And because I haven't always been so deeply attached to the team, and because I'm old enough not to be able remember, I have trouble naming guys from earlier eras.  Talley, for sure.  But between him and Fred, I'm sure there were leaders, but I'm not sure any were in the category of Fred and Kyle.  

     

     

  8. 4 hours ago, USCGBILLSFAN said:

    I was just watching Kyle Williams last game and it hit me that he may have given Josh Allen the his heart and soul, so Josh could take his mantle as the heart and soul of the team.  It got me thinking who did Kyle get it from, Aaron Schobel?

    Thoughts?

    Fred Jackson.

    • Like (+1) 5
    • Agree 2
  9. 5 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

    There is a lot of speculation of Beane using a number of picks to move around the board this season.

    He has done that in the past, so the premise has legs.

     

    On the other hand, Beane has never been in this situation needing some help in a number of areas while needing to get younger AND

    controlling he cap going forward.  Lots of depth penciled in that could be improved on.  I look at the Hamlin's/Doyle's as examples.   

     

    After the first 2 rounds (my personal hope is WR with 1 early pick and DL or S with the other), the remaining 9 are from the late 4th on.

    Beane and his boys have found some decent players in these rounds, BUT the odds stack against you.

     

    Could doubling up on Safety picks (if not in the 2nd) and OL/DL along with single picks of RB/CB/P have any advantage?

    I know it's a risk, but everything has risk.

     

    I just keep wondering if this approach has any merit.

     

     

    I don't think so.  The Bills are never going to carry all the guys they could draft, so they'll push them to practice squad where they'll get pick off by weaker teams.  

     

    Beane loves to move up to get guys the Bills thought would be gone much earlier.   I expect that twice in the draft he'll package one or two picks to move up to get a guy they really like.  He'll come out of the draft with seven guys, eight maximum.  

    • Like (+1) 1
  10. 2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

     

    I'm more intrigued about the possibility of Taron moving in and out of a safety spot.  He seems so versatile that he could start to split

    time between the 2 depending on down and distance and opponents' offensive tendencies.

     

    The 4-3-4 vs 4-2-5 argument has always been about taking Taron out.  This could be a compromise to that point.

    The problem with the compromise is it upsets the safety chemistry.  I think if he moves he will be more or less full time. He would need all the safety reps in practice, too.

    • Agree 1
  11. 1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

     

    I hope McDermott is taking a long hard look at himself this offseason. That's where the big defensive improvement is going to come from, not from further imbalancing the defense vs offense resource investment.


     

    I don't agree that there's a talent imbalance.  Torrence, Cook, Kincaid in the past three years.  

     

    But I definitely agree about the long hard look.  

     

    I just quoted a bit, but the whole post was excellent.  Thanks.  

    • Like (+1) 1
  12. 45 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

     

    If this has been discussed, I missed it.  It's an interesting idea.  I could see situations/certain opponents when using this scheme could work.

    Taron can do so much already that it seems plausible.

    I've suggested moving Johnson before.  People bash me about it.  I like it because safety is a more important position.  It requires tackling ability, coverage skills and brains. That's Johnson. It's easier to find a slot corner than a safety.  It's been a luxury to have him in that position.  

     

    If he moves, then the Bills need a new slot corner or they go 4-3.  

     

    I think Johnson would be a great safety.  

    • Like (+1) 2
    • Agree 1
    • Haha (+1) 1
    • Thank you (+1) 2
  13. 9 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

    Get a handful of bad @**** who are great at what they do.

     

    Also quit rotating so damn much. Let them play. 

    I think McDermott wants to get Dorian Williams into the lineup with Bernard and Milano and attack from the second tiernof the defense.  I still think we'll see Taron Johnson at safety and more 4-3.  

    • Agree 1
    • Thank you (+1) 1
  14. 15 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:

    Does the signing of Samuel make a trade down more likely??  

    I don't think so. One thing I like about Beane is he values first-round talent, and he likes to trade up to get it.  Especially because he has a lot of draft capital, I expect he'll go up a few picks to get someone. 

    • Like (+1) 2
  15. 3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

     

    On the surface I feel the same. But we've extended two out of our four day 1 and 2 picks on the D-line. And might extend a third in Rousseau. We seem to be doubling down on the D-line investments we have made. Unless I am forgetting someone, the only one that was a draft day flop for us was Basham. 

     

    I would also say, the D has been good to great in the regular season. And they have even had some nice moments in the postseason. The problem is they have been consistently horrendous against divisional round opponents. It's about getting the defense to play well against the best competition. That's how teams get to the Super Bowl. You don't make it to the Super Bowl winning shootouts. That might work one year if you get lucky but more often than not you have to be able to keep a team to 24 or less points. 

    And this problem you describe is my biggest criticism about how McBeane choose personnel.  They keep getting guys who do everything, like Rousseau and Oliver, but they aren't dominant playmakers.  The dominant playmakers are the difference makers in the playoffs.  Maybe with Milano and Miller (the pre-injury Miller) the Bills would have had the right guys.  A roster dull of guys who just execute the system works in the regular season but has trouble in the playoffs, because the offenses are effective and can exploit otherwise minor weaknesses. 

    • Like (+1) 2
    • Thank you (+1) 1
  16. 11 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

    Okay, at this point, we are talking past one another to some degree. I'm not talking about blowing the doors off elite teams in the postseason. That is unlikely to happen. We have invested heavily in DL and DB in the past, only to falter in the post-season. Would we have won last season without the spate of injuries? Unknown, but it's not a ridiculous surmise. It could have happened.

     

    I wrote in the thread on mid-round players that folks think are going to be good players a list at Center, DT, and S. Center is one of the better positions in the draft. You have one possible first rounder (Powers-Johnson) and a couple of day 2 fellas (Frazier and Van Pran). There are also a couple of day 3 Centers (probably) that are above average (Limmer and Bortolini). The Bills can get one of them.

     

    I think you have undervalued my point that stressing the opposing offense to keep up can make the job of the D easier. And naturally, no one is likely to be the '85 Bears, that was a rhetorical gesture. You need an effective D, and it is better to have a dominating one, but that is hard to achieve in this era. And I think we have not sufficiently played into our strength, which is the elite and very rare talent of Josh Allen.

     

    And then, it is always a matter of where the strength of an individual draft lies. I don't think there is an edge player worth the early pick, unless Latu falls way further than anyone anticipates. Anyway, if they go D early, I hope it's for Cooper Dejean or a top CB, because the value isn't there at the DL position. I think it would be a waste of an opportunity to grab a potential WR1, but whoever they select, I'll be hoping it is a difference maker, and I'm sure you will be, too.

    Thanks.  I'm not sure we were talking past each other.  I've enjoyed it, getting to understand your perspective about this.  You haven't convinced me about philosophy, and I haven't convinced you, but that's okay.   Your points about the draft make a lot of sense.  I don't know the players in the draft, but I get your point.  Bills needed a guard last year, but it wasn't a first-round move.  Second round was the place to find a guard, and they did.   If it's a second-round center this year, that's great.   I really wasn't talking about what the Bills should be doing in the draft as talking about what the team needs.   I don't think the Bills need a Tee Higgins to round out the receiver room.  If they get a first-round receiver, it's a good move because in a year or two he'll replace Diggs, and he'll help this year, but I don't think the team needs a Tee Higgins to get the receiver room to the right level of talent.  I think for 2024 a talent like that may be nice, but it's probably overkill.   You don't think it's overkill.   Got it. 

    • Thank you (+1) 1
  17. 56 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

    If you are in a position to field the equivalent of the '85 Bears, I say go for it. You can win a Super Bowl that way.

     

     

     

     

    I didn't say anything about the 85 Bears, and that's not what I meant.  

     

    What it takes to win the Super Bowl is what the Chiefs did to the Bills in Buffalo in January:  Make it very difficult for a very good offense to score.   

     

    Championship games these days are won by scoring in the high 20s and keeping a really good offense in the high teens or low 20s.   That's how most games go.   To be a champion, you have to hold down a really good offense, and the last two Bills losses to KC in the playoffs, the defense couldn't do it.  Offense did its part, but the defense didn't.  

     

    It's only occasionally that the winner in those games wins by blowing the doors off the other team.  The defenses are two good.  Once in a while, yes, but as I said, it's not a sustainable model.   You win with effective offense that gets you into the high 20s and really tough defense that makes a good opponent struggle. 

     

    The Bills might actually have had that kind of defense last season, with Milano and Bernard and Miller playing, but they didn't.  Now, if they all come back, they still are not yet in a position to have that kind of defense because they need help in the defensive backfield and on the D line.  

     

    They had the offense last season, or were close, but if Dion getting pushed into Josh, and Samuel replacing Davis will make the offense better.  He's a more effective threat.  They need a center.   

     

    Now, I'm not arguing for a first-round safety or center.  I don't know who's out there.  And Beane is always a surprise, so I have no expectations.   All I'm saying is the notion that the way to win is by constantly giving Josh more and more weapons isn't the way.  The Chiefs let Tyreek Hill walk and have never replaced him.   Josh had as many weapons last season as Mahomes had, at least until whatever it was happened to Diggs.  It's not about more weapons.  It's about effective weapons and tough-as-nails defense. 

  18. 9 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

    Well, you're one of the solid fellas on this board. I respect your intellect and general decency. However, I'm going to stubbornly disagree with your interpretation of the state of the team. I think we both are more optimistic than not, so none of what follows should be understood as a repudiation of that. Nonetheless, here's my brief counter-argument.

     

    Wanting a strong WR room does not mean dismissing the value of other positions or groups. You can get a solid S and C outside of the first round. You can often find quality in the middle rounds there. So even if you think those are crucial to the Bills in 2024, that doesn't mean one is compelled to pick them above WR. It's a false either/or, if one intends that.

     

    Now, I believe the WR room isn't just about upgrading talent, but getting the right mix of talent. Some folks don't think a big X is needed, for instance. If you have sufficient talent, just make that work. I think having that big X with speed and reliable hands results in an exponential jump on the collective value, the whole transcending the particular values of the parts.

     

    I also just don't happen to like many of the other options likely to be there at #28. You can make a case for Cooper Dejean, I suppose. There might be a CB worth the pick. Unless Latu inexplicably falls, I don't like the edge players, and I would not want Beane to reach for need ahead of WR if a fella like Mitchell is still on the board. But also, and here, I'm pretty sure we just differ, I don't think we're likely to prevail in the post-season on the basis of a superior D. There's a threshhold below which you are sunk, but I think McD can coach them up to get above that line.

     

    What helps a D a lot is a really outstanding offense that threatens and stresses the other team a great deal. We don't have that, but we could. We have RB1. I think we'll add another in the draft. It doesn't have to be a high pick, because you can get solid RBs late. I think they should and will add to the OL. You might find someone worthy late first, but I doubt it will outweigh WR as I judge the need. Kincaid and Shakir are young, ascending players. I'm high on Kincaid. Samuel is a nice add. It's still missing an outside boundary receiver to make the recipe complete.

     

    But overall, I have more urgency not only because I think it is wisest to protect Josh Allen and surround him with the best collection of talent possible, but because I'm not sure about Diggs, how far he'll come back, and exactly where he is altogether. I think it would be foolish to wait until you absolutely have to replace WR1 before you bring the new guy in. Get him now and develop him.

     

     

     

     

    Thanks for the thoughtful response.   It's funny to me , because I agree with the first three paragraphs, in that I can understand what you're saying.  I don't know that it's right, but it makes sense.   I get, for example, that a big X might make it an exceptional receiver corps.  I don't know if that's true.  But I also get that a talented OC can figure out how to make different combinations work, so I don't know that a big X is the only solution.  

     

    Why it's funny is I pretty much completely disagree with the last three paragraphs.   I think a violent, highly talented defense is essential to winning the post-season, and the Bills need real help in that regard.  So, I see defense as a greater need.  I also don't think that trying to out-offense the whole league is the way to win.  Somebody always stops offense.  It's not a sustainable philosophy for winning.  Defense is.  And I seriously don't believe the surround-Allen-with-talent thing.  He needs to be surrounded with enough talent; when he has enough talent, more talent doesn't make him better.  The question is whether the Bills have the right talent and the right coordinator.  The wrong coordinator, and it simply doesn't matter how much talent they put around Allen.

    • Agree 1
  19. 35 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

    I'm sorry, I just hate that argument. Positional value ought to be a consideration. 

    You don't just say, well, I could have the seventh best WR or the second best S, I guess I better pick S.

    Look at the loaded free agents at S. Look at how RB is now a position you can fill with late round fellas and UFA.

     

    And this is an exceptionally good draft at WR, so the seventh best is likely the third best in an ordinary draft.

    Regardless, my view is that they should draft someone who can conceivably grow into WR1, and preferably someone who is a big X with speed and good hands. That is a piece that we presently lack, and adding it to what we have in the WR room will make the entire ensemble much more dangerous.

     

    I sure as hell wouldn't pass on an AD Mitchell to take Chop Robinson, for instance.

    Well, positional value is important, but I think you're greatly overvaluing the wide receiver position.  I think wideouts aren't much more valuable than running backs.

     

    What?

     

    First, look at the Chiefs.  Kelce at 93 receptions, Rice at 79, and Pacheco at 44.   They weren't exactly stacked with receivers putting up gaudy numbers. 

     

    Then look at the Lions.  St Brown. LaPorta, Gibbs.   

     

    The NFL just isn't about flashy wideout tandems.  

     

    Now, think about what you're saying about the draft, about how deep it is at receiver.  It's true about the league in genreal - there are good recivers who make plays all over the league.  Samuel, for example.  There are a lot of good, athletic, fast players.  The league is much about getting a nice collection of those guys and designing an effective offense that they execute.   And that's what people have been saying here about the Bills. Diggs, Samuel, Shakir, and Kincaid in a well designed passing attack are a tough group to defend - as tough as any in the league.  Solid route runners, good hands, good speed, good run after catch.  

     

    So, for the Bills in the draft, wide out has pretty low positional value.   A center or a safety is much more important to the 2024 Bills.  

     

    Now, the Bills will need a new #1 wideout, so I agree that the long-term value of the position is greater than the short-term value, but the Bills have some time to find the new #1.  Beane always seems to make the move he needs to get the guy he wants, and I'm sure he'll make his move for a receiver when it makes sense. 

     

    So, as much as you'd like a receiver in the first round, and I'd be happy with one, I think the notion that that position, particularly now, is not of significant value to this team right now.   If you're going to talk about positional value, Beane should go in a different direction. 

     

     

    • Eyeroll 1
  20. 34 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

     

    Samuel as of right now is a better player than Shakir. This post screams "I only watch the Bills." If Shakir hit the market right now he wouldn't be getting $8M AAV with $15M guaranteed. He isn't the caliber of player that stops you from trying to improve the position when a good opportunity presents itself. I appreciate Shakir's toughness and natural instincts after the catch but he was not an answer for our man coverage woes last year. Samuel is genuinely very good against man. And unlike Shakir he can actually play outside. I suspect for example all of the perimeter screens that went to Diggs last year with minimal success will now go to Samuel. So he raises our floor in a number of ways.

     

    Some people are getting way too caught up in worrying about his best spot in the formation. The #1 and only priority this offseason was adding legit starting caliber talent to the WR room. It's laughable that now the complaint is "the Bills are going to have TOO MANY receivers." There will be injuries, rotation, varying game plans focusing on different skillsets to beat different matchups. This is a regime that has regularly spent a lot of money on players 2-3 deep at every single spot on the DL. But for some fans doing the same at WR is an unspeakable sin. I can guarantee you right now the effect of Curtis Samuel on the roster will be much more than the combined effect of Jordan Phillips and Tim Settle on the roster. Beane's only mistake is that he waited this long to make the philosophical change.

     

    If Beane next does the easy and obvious move and selects the best WR remaining with his 1st pick we will finally have the long awaited influx of talent that this group has desperately needed. If that leads to a player like Shakir getting less attention, all that means is he will also face more favorable matchups which can only a good thing.

    I'm not sure they need another quality guy for 2024, but I won't argue the point. You may be right.  And I certainly won't object if a quality starter shows up in the draft. 

     

    And I completely agree about the comparison with Shakir.  With Diggs and Samuel on the field, Shakir will see more open space to work in.  Samuel will make Shakir better, not vice versa.  

  21. 19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

     

     

    I agree. The Bills are going to be middle of the pack in terms of overall roster talent this year. But they have Josh. They are well coached and they play in a winnable division. 

     

    The last few years they have had a really solid all around roster that arguably just missed a difference maker or two. This year they still need a difference maker or two but they also have some holes to fill on the DL and in the secondary.

    I agree, but I think thebholes are fillable.  Safety is my biggest concern. 

     

    Difference maker might come out of the draft.  Might not.  

×
×
  • Create New...