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Shaw66

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Posts posted by Shaw66

  1. 4 minutes ago, Pete said:

    They picked up a pass interference flag after Rams defender had big grab of Coopers shirt, that clearly prevented Cooper from catching the ball.  Replays showed the jersey being tugged hard.  Assclown Brady applauded the refs for picking up the flag saying there was no interference.  Did you not see the jersey tug Marcia?

    That one really bothered me. First, the defender was just holding on to the shirt, and that I get. But when his hand pulled away from the jersey, it was clear that then there was real force being applied to Cooper, and I thought there was no way he didn't slow down as the result of that pull. It was hard to say, but it pretty easily could have been the difference between Coop getting to the ball and not. 

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  2. 2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

    And would have gotten the first down because their passing game shredded us all day.  Or they could have run the jet sweep that killed us all day.  Any number of plays.  If the decision in this particular game was between recovering an onside kick or stopping them from getting a first down, my money was on the inside kick.  It was clear except for one series we had no clue how to deal with their offense.

     

    Should that TO been called?  No.  Did it ultimately matter?  No.  
     

     

    Chances of recovering an aside kick - about 7% in the league this year. 

     

    Chances of holding the Rams to three and out - about 14%, because the Bills did it to the Rams once in 7 possessions.  Playing for three and out was and is the much better decision. 

     

    What really disturbs me is that Tom Brady obviously had all of this drilled into his head while playing:  He knew, and said it the moment the Allen sneaked on the first play, that the Bills had made a mistake. Throw the ball three times, so if you don't make it, you at least have stopped the clock on each play that doesn't score. Especially with Allen, because he can roll out and run if he has the opening, he can run out of the shotgun and pull up for the little pop pass, he has lots of options, all of which will stop the clock if he doesn't make it.  By doing that, the Bills have the 14% chance of getting the ball back, twice as good as the onside kick.

     

    So, if Brady knows this, it's because someone taught it to him. By this time in his career, someone should have taught it to McDermott. 

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  3. On 12/3/2024 at 8:44 AM, Jistafan said:

    We have historically been poor in stopping run. Curious what’s it gonna take for Bills to stop the run? Is it coaching scheme, not enough talent , probably both? Enlighten me oh wise ones…

    I haven't read this thread, so I'm probably saying things others have said.  I'll respond anyway. 

     

    I'll start with a question. What's it going to take for the Bills to stop punt returns?  The Bills are giving up 9.1 yards per return, which is right in the middle of the pack in the league.  Your answer probably is, well, middle of the pack isn't terrible, and why is it so important to get better at punt coverage?  The team is 10-2 and playing well. 

     

    Well, the Bills are in the middle of the pack in yards given up rushing per game, and the answer is middle of the pack isn't terrible, and why is it so important to get better at rushing defense?  The team is 10-2 and playing well. 

     

    So, the first point is that random stats often don't correlate with winning, so being troubled by random stats often is a fool's game.  In other words, the answer to your question is it doesn't really matter if the Bills improve their stats against the run. What matters is whether the Bills are winning, and they are. 

     

    The second point, for which I don't have quality stats, is that not all rushing yards are made equal.  The Bills' defense is designed to stop scoring, not to stop the accumulation of yards. The Bills are 11th in the league in yardage defense and 6th in the league in scoring defense. They're 18th in rush yards per game, so yes, relatively speaking their rush yard defense isn't as good as it could be. But look at 4th down defense.  It's hard to know how many of those fourth down plays are running plays, but it's probably a reasonably high percentage. The Bills are fourth in the league on fourth down stops, so on the plays that really matter, the Bills' run defense appears to be pretty good.  

     

    Red zone scoring? The Bills defense is tied for 8th in the league, which suggests the defense, and probably the rushing defense, is playing pretty well. 

     

    Good stats aren't the objective. Winning is the objective, and the Bills are winning. In building a team, the question is how are we going to win?  The answer is by scoring more points than the other team.  The Bills are second in points per game scored, and they are sixth in points per game allowed. That's damn good. The Lions are way ahead of every team in point differential, and in second place the Bills are way ahead of every other team.

     

    Sean McDermott very clearly understands how to win football games, and it's also very clear that he believes the way to win football games is to stop explosive plays and to stop scoring in the red zone. If he were to build a defense that was very good at stopping the run, he would have a defense that isn't so good at stopping scoring, and that's not how McDermott wins. 

     

    So, how much do we really care that the Bills aren't leading the league in punt return defense or in rushing defense?

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  4. 23 minutes ago, Forward Progress said:

    The coach of the year award doesn't go to the best coach... it goes to the coach of the team that most exceeded pre-season expectations.

     

    Daboll won it in 2022, now he's on the hot seat

    Vrabel won it in 2021, fired at the end of last season

    Matt Nagy won it in 2018, fired two years later

     

    Are these coaches better than Andy Reid, who won it once in 2002 with the Eagles or McDermott who has not won?  Absolutely not!!  

     

    If you are the coach of a team with playoff expectations (even if the expectations are because of your coaching), you won't win this award.

     

    Just like the NFL MVP, coach of the year is another narrative award.

    Good stuff.

     

    Amazing that Reid hasn't won it in Kansas City.  

     

    Stefanski has won it twice

  5. On 11/21/2024 at 5:09 PM, Ayjent said:

    The Bills are a fun team to watch and I’m not sure that any team matches up with KC better than the Bills.  I would have loved to be at the game, because I’m guessing that was a pumped up crowd.  The last time I went to a game that big may have been when the Bills beat the Dolphins for the AFC East title in 1990.  I know it wasn’t tear the goal posts down type of game but all bets are off for the goalposts staying up if that’s the same outcome in AFC CG. 

    Man, I would hope Buffalo is cool enough not to tear down goalposts. Act like you've been there, and all that.  Still, I hear you.

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  6. You know what this discussion sounds like?  It sounds like a lot guys, collectively saying this: Whatever defenses do, the Bills find a way to attack and move the ball. They are diverse in the best way, because they seem to adapt to whatever the defense is doing. 

     

    A lot has to do with Josh. Everyone knows his job, but Josh has to walk up to the line of scrimmage, look around, then decide whether to change plays, get everyone to understand the play change, and then execute. And every player knows if he does his job, Josh will find a way. 

     

    Get Cooper back and fully tuned in to Josh, get Kincaid and Coleman back, this could be a smokin offense in a few weeks.  

     

     

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  7. I want to add something else about the game itself, not the experience. 

     

    Tuesday night I watched the replay of the game on the NFL Network. Every few minutes, I'd have the same thought: The Bills are really good. 

     

    The Bills now are the team that McDermott always envisioned: They play a total team game, and a team that plays like that is very tough to beat. 

     

    Where it's easiest to see is on defense. The Bills' defense makes it hard to play, every down. Even on completed passes, one or two defenders are right there, making a play on the ball and then making the tackle. In the red zone, they make it really hard to score. Running the ball into the end zone from the two-yard line against the Bills seems almost impossible. Even when the Chiefs scored, it was just barely. 

     

    Essentially what they do on defense is have eleven guys spread around the field with assignments that allow the team, collectively, to cover every place on the field. Each guy knows his assignment and executes.

     

    And they tackle! Hunt broke through for a 15-yard run or so, and Rapp made a textbook tackle. Cam Lewis flashed. The reason Bills fans, including me, were underwhelmed by Rousseau for the past few seasons is that he doesn't make the highlight-reel play very often. What he does do, however, is execute his assignment flawlessly, with speed, size, and strength. He's rushing the passer, he's stopping the run, he's controlling the edge. 

     

    Bernard is the ringmaster, completely in charge. 

     

    It's a phenomenal team defense. 

     

    And the offense has the same characteristics. Everyone blocks. The pass protection is excellent. Even when it isn't working, they keep running the ball, because the constant threat of the run challenges the defense in ways that create openings to throw the ball. The Bills always seem ready to attack where the defense is weak. 

     

    Allen seems to be becoming what we'd always hoped and expected. He's a field general who sees and reads defenses. The offense works its way down the field relentlessly, because Allen always knows where to go with the ball. And then, on the four or five or six plays when the Bills really need it, he takes off the horned-rim glasses and the Clark Kent business suit and becomes Superman. There is only one other Superman in the league, Lamar Jackson the Ravens offense is good but not so persistently effective as the Bills offense. 

     

    The NFL is so competitive that teams (other than the Lions) can't dominate play after play after play, and the Bills can't either. But the Bills are IN every play. If they don't make the play, they come close. It's really impressive. And they're about to bring Kincaid, Coleman, and Milano back to the lineup, and to get Cooper fully integrated and at full-speed, all playing the same kind of team game but with the ability to make the special play from time to time. 

     

    I think we're looking forward to a couple of exciting months.  

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  8. 2 hours ago, NC Lifelong Bills fan said:

    You really pulled me into your narrative and I relived last Sunday through your eyes. For me, I was calmer than I’ve been in the last 5 years watching a game, but at the end I was exhausted and hoarse. One question, since you were at the game: did the crowd stand for the whole game? On my tv, it looked like they were on their feet. Thanks to you, I  rewatched the game vicariously. I look for your write ups after every game, as I have for many years.
     

    One aside, my parrot, Homer, loves sports in general, and he reacts to all crowd noise at any tv sports event, football, hockey, baseball, soccer. On Sunday when the game was on, there were an unusual amount of “woo-hoos.” He says “ I love Josh,” and “Go Bills,” and “first down,” and “touchdown!” When we score, he shouts “touchdown” and jumps up and down and ruffles his wings. Sometimes he says, “Oh sh*t” right after a score, a very bad habit from the last five years when touchdowns have been called back and field goals missed. Less swearing so far this year. Wonder where he learned how to swear???

     

    Go Bills! from Winston-Salem, NC.

     

     

    Love the parrot story, thanks!

     

    Was the crowd standing.  Truth is, I don't know.  In the Club seats, people stand for opening kickoff, big third downs or other big plays. Most of the rest of the time, even when the Bills are on defense, they sit. That's fine with me. 

     

    When I look at the lower bowl, it usually looks to me like everyone is standing. I didn't actually look on Sunday, but I went through the entire game assuming they were standing!

     

    Bottom line - the crowd on Sunday was about as energized as I've seen. 

  9. 1 minute ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

     

    Guy was on my flight back from st. louis through BWI.  I was talking to a couple who were wearing chiefs hoodies and i said "you'll have a good time, but i probably wouldn't antagonize the fan base and wear something like that on enemy turf"

    He was still standing at the end of the game!

  10. 2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

    Literally the entire game thread was people complaining about the coaching decisions. Maybe I'm wrong but it seems like we are a 4th down away from winning the Super Bowl vs being horrible, having awesome coaches vs getting schooled. It was one game, it shouldn't change how you feel or felt that drastically. I'm not a McD fan, but felt we did a solid job I felt and Babich is giving me some hope. Seeing us more in man was nice. We had some head scratching moments but all and all I'm happy with what we did. Especially in defending Hunt.

    I think you understate the importance of what we saw yesterday. It's true, it's only one game, but I think the game displayed beautifully a couple of things we've been waiting for.

     

    1. McDermott's approach is based on a belief that the offense and the defense can literally get better from season to season, as the players learn to make decisions and to execute nearly flawlessly.  I think this season is demonstrating that. A good argument can be made the Bills are better this season than last season, even with the substantial personnel changes that were made. And, as he's already alluded to occasionally, the coaching is getting better year over year, too. McDermott is developing a better feel for decision-making. He seems calmer than in previous seasons. A lot of the time he's observing, because his coordinators are funning the game the way he wants. 

     

    2. Allen gets it. His description of what he was thinking on the TD showed that it's all coming naturally now. He knew what he was looking at, could see the Chiefs were showing one defense and sliding to another, he understood what it meant and where he could attack it. That high-level thinking on the field.  He's been taking the short completion over the deeper 50-50 ball more often - and he's making smart decisions, generally, about when to throw the 50-50 ball.  

     

    These aren't things that have happened overnight, but to have it so clearly on display in a big game against the most feared opponent in the league (along with Detroit), that's important.

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  11. 22 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

    It definitely wasn't the best throw I ever saw and as I've explained this was more hyperbole to show a lot of times when a ball is that close , the receiver at the NFL level can do a better job of tracking it or taking a better angle or a better burst 

     

    I haven't watched this play five times back to come to a complete conclusion but I have noticed that Dalton does seem to lose a little burst tracking a ball over his shoulder occasionally 

     

    As I said even going from 17 to 15 miles an hour could be the difference between a catch and hitting your fingertip

     

    Thanks, and I agree about the last point. If he lost any speed that a good receiver wouldn't, that was the difference between a completion and a near miss.

  12. 18 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

    That Miss last game was so minute... That's a tracking issue at the NFL level .. and I really like Kincaid.. but the best can track the ball without losing speed

     

     

    It's one thing if you overthrow a guy by six yards... If it's within fingertips of the guy and he's running down the field he's not doing a good enough job tracking it 

     

    Watch guys like DeSean Jackson track a football 60 yards in the air.. they can maintain 19 20 miles an hour while tracking it over their shoulder 

     

    While other NFL guys the same ball they dipped down to 17 miles an hour to track it.. and that's the difference between a catch and a fingertip miss

     

    One thing if it's 5 yards overthrown.. when it's that close at the NFL level it's generally a tracking issue.. he needs to get better at tracking

     

    The best wide receivers or pass catchers when the ball goes in the air they have another gear

     

    And yes there is some hyperbole to this there is obviously a such thing as a bad pass but it's the small things at the highest level 

    I haven't watched replays carefully. Did he lose speed?  If so, that's a really interesting point, because it was literally a half step, which means the ball was right on the money.  Still, I'll say that given how open he was, Allen could have and probably should have dialed it back a tad. That was a tough run for his receiver. 

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  13. 15 hours ago, MJS said:

    They are a defensive team, really.

    Talk about complementary football. They are it. They play really tough defense, and when the defense needs someone to pick them up, they turn to Mahomes. Great combination.

     

    I think the Bills simply aren't at their level, yet. I think they're a year away. I think the Bills need to plug in a really good defensive talent somewhere. I was hoping it would be Bishop, and maybe he's like Bernard - he needs his rookie season to get up to speed. I hope they'll acquire someone special in the off season, ideally a stud d lineman. 

     

    Then the Bills will look like the Chiefs do now - great defense, with a quarterback and an offense that demoralizes the opponent. 

    3 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

    Division winners and AFC East vs AFC West rotation. Assuming both teams win the division we will play them again next year. No conspiracy. The home and away is predetermined obviously except the playoffs. 

    Brady and Manning used to play every year for the same reason.  I'm sure the Pats and Colts fans hated it, but the rest of the country loved it.  Pats-Colts was always a must-see game.

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  14. 9 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

    A rebuild year is when you tear the entire house down. This year is changing the drapes (Diggs) and replacing the old carpets (Morse, Poyer, Hyde, Tre). 

    It's true, it's not a rebuild, but it's still a fabulous job on the coaching (and personnel) end. The pieces keep changing, and a lot of the pieces are not high-end talent, but the team keeps winning. 

     

    The list of names who have contributed is impressive: Rapp, Hamlin, Lewis, Spector, Williams, the D line rotation, the receiver room.  It's not that all of these guys, and others I haven't named, are great. The whole point is that McDermott and his staff can prepare less-than-great players, and the collective result is that the team keeps winning. That's impressive. 

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