Shaw66

House, don't. Cute, but not everyone will get it. I am not Billy Shaw. Billy Shaw has died, and it saddens me deeply, as I'm sure many of you understand. But let's not pretend that Billy Shaw was posting here. I just happened to be using his name and number as a tribute to him and to the teams he played on. I'll probably say more later.

Well, I don't know if there is recency bias in the announcers or not. However in the case of Henry, I think that a guy who has had the incredible production that he has had for the past 6 years who then puts up 150 yards against the Cowboys is not an example of recency bias. The guy has had a long career of outstanding play and what is unusual for him this year is not the 150 yards against the Cowboys but the relatively small output in the first game of the season. As a result I think this is the wrong case to be talking about recency bias. This is a great player who once again this season is playing at a level that is rarely seen in the NFL.

So, if you're the coach, you're going to take snaps away from Benford to let Elam work on his skills? Or Douglas? I've always thought we should look at it from the players' perspective. If I'm Greg Rousseau, to pick a guy, or Ed Oliver, or Terrell Bernard, and I see Elam on the field instead of Benford (or even worse, Elam gets beat for a TD), I'm really unhappy with my coach. I'm working my butt off, every day, every play, to win football games, and my coach isn't putting the best players at their positions on the field with me? I think that's one of the surest ways for a coach to lose his team. Preseason, fine. Mop up time, but real snaps in real games, a coach is a fool if he puts a guy in the game who clearly is not as good as the guy who goes to the bench.

As to your first paragraph, I think the Ravens' offense killed us, not one person. They have an offense that features fast, shifty ball carriers, and they've had it for years. They've been tough to handle for years, because Lamar is a unique threat. Then they added Henry, which made the offense even more difficult to deal with. So, yes, Justice Hill killed the Bills, but in their offense it can be anyone. Put James Cook in that offense, and he'd be amazingly explosive. As for Henry, I think you're wrong. HE rushed for 150 yards against the Cowboys, 6 yards per carry. I watched that game, and he was the principal reason I was worried about the Bills playing the Ravens. He had 84 the week before. Henry was looking all world before he ever stepped on the field Sunday night.

This is really good. I agree with a lot of it: I agree that the defense drops the ball at key times. That is because, I think, McD builds his defense to be able to play every way imaginable. The result is they're very good at almost everything, but not truly great at anything. That's the wrong style when it comes to crunch time. McD likes a Rousseau over of a Chris Jones, because Rousseau can do all kinds of things. The result is that when you need a big play, you have Rousseau instead of Chris Jones. That means in crunch time, you don't have a playmaker to change the game for you. I'm not disagreeing at all; I'm just saying that is why they have let us down in critical moments. And it's not just the players - it's the coaches' style. I don't like it. Whereas, on offense, I always have the feeling that Josh will find a way, on defense, I expect them to give up 12 on third and 11 in the fourth quarter. I've been pleasantly surprised by Hamlin. Better than I expected, but I agree. The nickel? Well, if the linebackers get healthy and the Bills get the Ravens in the playoffs, I'm expecting we'll see a lot of Bernard-Milano-Williams, with Johnson subbing in somewhere. I mentioned in the Rockpile Review that I liked Williams on Sunday night. His tackling was superb and in particular, he tackled Henry like Henry was just any other running back. The thing about living and dying with the nickel is, I think, a question of the era in which McDermott learned defense. His entire career, the name of the game has been stopping the pass, so the nickel was the way to go. He's not the only guy who runs a lot of nickel, but he was among the first. If the pendulum really has swung and offenses are going to be more balanced for the next several years, then I expect we'll see McDermott change. 4-3 is the defense to run against balanced attacks. 4-2 is what McDermott chose to run because over the past ten years, very few teams actually were balanced - they all were trying to throw for 250 and run for 80-100. This is the only place where I disagree with you: First, other than his opening run, Henry averaged 5 yards a carry, which is a bit above his CAREER average of 4.7. He did it behind an offense line built to run behind - they've been building that line for years. He did with a spectacular runner in the backfield with him, a runner who demands that the defense respect him. And he did it against a defense that is intentionally (for better or worse) built to stop the pass first and to just do as well as you can stopping the run. If the Bills had held the Ravens to 100 yards rushing, instead of 270, the Ravens STILL would be the leading rushing team in the league. The Bills rushing defense was gashed by one of the best rushing attacks the league has seen in recent memory. The point is that I don't expect any other teams to run against the Bills like that, and I expect the Bills defense to be better against the Ravens next time. Because the Ravens are the only team that presents that kind of running threat, I don't think it's time to declare that the sky is falling. If the Bills need a better run defense, week in and week out, then I when Milano returns I expect we'll see the Bills in more 4-3.

I disagree with a lot of this. First, the D definitely is not "talentless." Benford, Douglas, Bernard, Williams, Rousseau, Miller, Oliver, Jones are all very talented players. And Milano, Bernard, and Johnson. They just don't fit the model that you seem to think the Bills need. As I said to you yesterday, I think you're wrong when you say what the Ravens do isn't difficult or progressive. They have two supremely talented backs, they have lots of motion, they use their offensive line creatively. They are going to be a headache for a lot of teams until coordinators begin to figure out responses. I agree that the Bills have had problems stopping the run. It's very much by design. Like it or not, McDermott's approach has been to stop the pass and do the best you can against the run. And teams around the league have copied that approach - they're playing two-deep safeties, sophisticated coverages, all the stuff McDermott's done for a while now. That's why running is up and passing is down around the league. McDermott's run defenses have been weak, but they've been pretty good inside the red zone. He puts his biggest boys on the field - still not as big as other teams have, but the biggest he has, and he challenges his smaller, quicker players to make plays. They've done that. I've never been convinced that McDermott is right about all of that, but that's clearly his philosophy, and it's worked pretty well. Now that the emphasis around the league has shifted to the run so dramatically, the Bills may be behind the curve. Other teams have bigger defensive lines, better attacking defensive linemen, because they foolishly wasted resources on them three or four years ago. I say foolishly, because those guys weren't the best guys to have three or four years ago. Now that the style of play seems to be changing so dramatically, those guys they may have taken "foolishly" three or four years ago are just right for the way offenses are forcing them to play now. All of that is to say that although the Bills have plenty of talent on defense, I think you may be right in one sense: The Bills may not have the right talent to play the way the league now demands. However, I think it's way too early to tell that. The Ravens really are a peculiar team; there isn't another team in the league that plays the way the Ravens do, and that's been true ever since Lamar got there. I really think the offense is a much bigger concern, which is where you said yesterday that we just have different views about what's going on. I'm concerned about the offense because the Bills should have had a pretty good sense of what they were likely to get from the Ravens defense, and the offense wasn't prepared for it. Lots of people, including me, have complained about that gadget play precisely because it played into the hands of the kind of defense the Ravens play. That's bad game planning. In other words, I think the offense needs better answers. You think the defense needs to have better answers, but I think the biggest part of the answer for the defense is don't play the Ravens every week, because it's a bad matchup for how the Bills are built.

Those aren't jump balls. That was a great thrower and a good receiver executing the back shoulder exactly the way it's drawn up. Both players expect that either (1) the receiver separates and the throw goes deep or (2) the receiver doesn't separate, in which he's going to have a defender right next to him. That's exactly what happened. The QB and receiver have a big advantage in that situation, because the receiver can stop and the defender can't afford to stop. If they execute correctly, it is far from a jump ball. On neither of the two to Coleman did the defender have a realistic chance to defend the throw, let alone intercept. Neither was jump ball.

I think the league is in transition, a big transition, and teams haven't adjusted yet. The change from passing to running is dramatic. One result is that, as you suggest, there aren't many great teams. Maybe there are some great teams, but we don't know yet who they are. KC is 4-0, but other than the W-L they aren't looking great. Ravens are dominant, but teams will catch up to them. Nobody really believes that the Seahawks, the Bucs, the Commanders, the Steelers, even the Bills, are all that good. Some of those teams are actually good; we just don't it yet. So, there are good matchups happening, but we don't understand yet which games they are. More importantly, the networks don't understand either, so they don't know which games to showcase. Wait six weeks. Then, there'll be a few teams with two losses, and we will know which games are the good ones. There's a good bet that three of the good games will be Bills-Chiefs, Bills-49ers, Bills-Lions.

I don't think so. I mean, yes, there's always going to be a guy who is 1+ of 11, the guy who is the guy you really depend on, or ideally two. The two would be Coleman and Shakir. I don't have any evidence the McDermott pulled him. The way the Bills' offense, and many offenses, operate is that the play they want and the formation they want dictate personnel packages. The receivers are running on and off the field all the time, depending on down, distance, play, and formation. Granted, there are some guys who get more snaps than others, and Coleman is not one of those yet, but like anyone else, he has to earn it. McDermott never puts guys on the field to let them grow into the position; everyone has to earn it. (For years now, people here have been saying, "Put Elam on the field and let him learn." It doesn't work that way.) Coleman's job is the same as MVS's job and as Hollins' job - run and off the field depending on whether your number is called, and NEVER make it about yourself. You're running on and off the field because the people running the team, the coaches, think that's the best way to win. His job is to be committed to doing his job, because that's being committed to winning; he shouldn't be worrying about how many snaps he gets. I actually don't think Coleman is going to be a problem. He's just immature. Like anyone else, he loves playing and making plays, so it was natural to be disappointed when, as you say, he was heating up and he had to go off. But making that gesture essentially said he was unhappy about having to do his job. His teammates saw the gesture when he did it, or they saw it on film. They don't want their teammate thinking about himself like that. I think he'll learn. Actually, I think that by now there's been a player or two who have talked to him about it. He's the kind of guy who learns and grows, and I don't think we'll see that from him in a year or two. I think that because almost everything I've seen from him has been really professional. Those two back-shoulder throws? Man, Josh knew he could trust Keon to make the right read - not to get all goofy thinking he's going deep. Josh made excellent throws in both cases, and Keon was just as good - looking for the ball at the time, having the ability to get his body in position to win over the corner, and then be sure-handed. That's high-level play from a rookie. Compared to that, learning to accept his role on the team is a pretty small item, so I'm not not worried about it. Still, it's something I saw and something he has to learn.

I just don't think you can expect to have a defense that can shut down the offense that the Ravens are running these days. It's a devastating combination to have those two guys in the backfield and to have effective passing, to boot. The defense certainly could have been better and they will learn some things from what happened last night, but if the offense had been able to stay on the field and put up some points, that alone may have been enough to help the defense survive the game.

I think you're correct about the defense being a problem, but I think you're not completely correct about the cause. It's true, everyone knew they were going to run, but knowing they are going to run and stopping their running are two different things. Two points the announcers raised last night: 1. The Ravens come at you with two all-time great ball carriers. Derrick Henry is a total stud. His rushing totals in the last six seasons and so far this season are this: 1059, 1540, 2027, 937 (in 8 games), 1538, 1167, 480 (in four games this season). Total stud. Only Michael Vick may have been better as a running quarterback. No teams put two stud runners in the backfield at the same time, and the only reason the Ravens can do it is that one of them is also a pretty good quarterback. That kind of talent in the same backfield at the same time is a defensive nightmare in ANY offense. 2. But in the offense they run, it's really, really tough to defend. They motion people all over the place, fast guys you have to respect. So, go ahead, respect the fast guy in motion, Henry pounding you up the middle, and Lamar running options. It's brutal. They showed one replay, and Collinsworth was just laughing - some linemen and tight ends pulled right, some pulled left, some went straight upfield. Understanding and responding to keys when the play can go anywhere on the field is a nightmare. So, yes, the defense has to be better, but give the Ravens a lot of credit. Later in the season, teams probably will have figured out to slow them down a bit - the game is always about forcing Jackson to throw - but right now it isn't surprising that they can explode on you like that. What the Bills needed was for the offense to be better. It was 21-3 at the half, and the defense was beginning to get its legs under them. The Bills needed some first-half points. Even one touchdown to get to 21-10, maybe a touchdown and field goal to get to 21-13. It was Brady's first big challenge, and he failed, more or less. Allen had pretty decent protection, but he had nowhere to throw the ball. That's on Brady - the whole point of the offense and the kind of guys they're putting on the field is that they're supposed to always have an open guy. There were a lot of plays where Allen just kept looking and looking. We didn't see that in previous weeks. Now, it's possible that's on Allen, that he had guys but wasn't reading the defense quickly enough to find them. I don't think so. I think the options that were supposed to be there weren't.

I had a bad feeling all week about the Ravens game. I was prepared for what happened. I wasn’t predicting a bad loss, but I could see how it could happen. Although much was made about the Ravens’ 0-2 start, the reality was that they were a toenail away from tying the Chiefs. And they were scary good in their win against the Cowboys. They had a running game that looked formidable, and their defense was solid. They were a bad matchup for the Bills. So, when Derrick Henry ripped off his 83-yard run to open the game, I wasn’t surprised. I just sat and admired his truly awesome talent. A guy with his size and power simply should not be permitted to run that fast, but that is who he is. They said during the broadcast that he runs more like Eric Dickerson than anyone in the history of the game. For years I’ve said he runs like Jim Brown - great speed and power, and enough shiftiness to make people miss. Comparisons to Dickerson and Brown are laughable for any other running back, but not Henry. He’s always worth watching. Lamar Jackson ran effectively, but not so much as to be the story. His passing was the story. Just flat out excellent. I’m not too upset with how the Bills played. It clearly wasn’t good enough; the offense was unproductive, and the defense struggled. The defense likely would have played somewhat better if the offense had held up better. But it’s early in the season, and teams are going to have some bad matchups and some bad games. That’s how they learn. In particular, I think now is the time to find out if Brady can do the job. Now, he has film to watch to understand how teams can shut down his passing attack. Now, he has the opportunity to find the weaknesses in the defenses the Ravens were running and to develop responses so that Josh isn’t just standing back there wondering where to go with the ball. In particular, the Ravens took away all the short, easy throws around the line of scrimmage. If they’re playing that tight, there have to be opportunities down field. Brady has to find those opportunities and get his team into the right plays to take advantage. I was unhappy about one play, the gadget play. McDermott’s teams don’t run gadget plays well. Josh had a TD reception against the Texans in the playoffs, and there may have been one or two others, but most of the time McDermott’s gadgets fail in the execution. The fake punt last season, for example, was ugly. And last night’s Samuel-in-the-wildcat-toss-to-Josh was ugly, too. For one thing, the Ravens were attacking the line of scrimmage all night long, so any play that develops slowly behind the line is probably a mistake. Brady should have realized that he needed to keep that play in his back pocket. But there’s something more – the Bills just don’t run gadget plays crisply, with precise execution. I don’t know why, but they don’t. More importantly, the Bills might actually have won the game if they hadn’t turned it over on that play. They had shown real life on the previous possession and tightened up the score, 21-10. The defense had forced two three-and-outs to begin the half and had taken the ball away on the last real possession of the second quarter. The Bills offense is not a big-play, quick-strike offense, although it can make big plays. What the Bills needed was another efficient, sustained drive for another score, a drive to keep their defense off the field and to establish some sore of control over the game. They didn’t need a splash play – even an explosive touchdown would have given the ball back to the Ravens, and that wasn’t what the Bills needed. The play was a bad idea, poorly executed, at the wrong time of the game. The object is to finish each quarter of the season 3-1 or better, and the Bills have done that. If they’re good, they’ll learn some lessons from that game, and the next time they play the Ravens, it will be different. A few players stood out to me. One was Dorian Williams. The guy is a tackling machine. Always attacking, always on target with his hits, and always wraps his guy up. He’s a guy who has to be on the field somewhere. Yes, he misplayed the touchdown to Hill, badly, but that’s a correctable error. I like that guy. Bass let the Bills down. That miss was a bad miss at a bad time. In a come-from-behind situation like that, it’s the kicker’s job to bail out the offense when the offense stalls short of the end zone. Those points were critical at the time. Looked to me that after Coleman had a nice reception over the middle, he got up, saw that he was coming off the field, and made some kind of gesture that asked, “Why are you taking me out?” He’s gotta learn, fast, that there are no prima donnas on this team. The last guy with that attitude is now playing in Houston, and the Bills aren’t going to live with another one. His two back-shoulder catches were excellent; his drop was a tough catch but he has to make it. Lick your wounds, learn some lessons, and move on. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were every-day people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

I haven't had a chance to post about this until now. I think it's right on the money. I caught some heat about my post a week or two ago about how the Bills are better prepared than most teams at the start of the season. I think this DVOA data is some of the evidence. It's not that the Bills win every game at the beginning of the season; it's just that they're ahead of most teams in terms of their preparation for the season. It's especially true because McDermott spends all year trying to build a team that can play multiple ways - run, pass, blitz, stuff the run - he wants his teams to be good at everything. The result is that when the season begins and he starts game planning, he has more tools available. Good passing teams haven't perfected their passing yet, good running teams haven't perfected their running. But the Bills already know how to stop anything - that's what they prepare for. Later in the season, the Bills are still multiple in that ways, but then they're running into teams that actually have perfected some aspect of their game, running or passing or whatever. At that point, being versatile is quite as useful. The test for McDermott has been - and it's a test he hasn't yet perfected consistently - is to continue to be able to use the Bills' versatility in game plans that shut down things that teams have gotten really good at, because that's what they find in the playoffs. However, I'm encouraged about later in the season, because at least so far it looks like Brady has created the passing attack that McDermott wants - a passing attack that is good at taking whatever the defense gives them. I thought the first few plays against the Jags were telling. Either the first four pass plays, or four the first five, all attacked the flat. Josh took the snap and barely thought about going downfield because he knew from what he had seen that the Jags were leaving the flat unprotected. So, over and over, Josh just threw it out there and let the receiver take ten easy yards. Eventually, the Jags tightened up that weakness, but it just created weaknesses elsewhere, and Josh was ready when that happened. What we saw was really efficient offense, whatever it was that the defense tried to do.

Based strictly on the Jaguars game, here are the top ten things wrong with Josh Allen. 1. His mustache 2. His passer rating wasn't perfect. 3. His indecision - all night long he was telling his backs and receivers presnap to line up here, no, over there, no, this way. 4. His sliding 5. His fear of jumping over people 6. He threw a ball way out of bounds. 7. He was 0-for-4 on standup touchdown passes, a little known but important stat. All four receivers hit the ground after catching his TD pass. 8. No good screen passes 9. He upset team morale by letting one of his receivers be late 10. His hair Other than that, he was pretty good. Overrated, but pretty good.

I don't know if anyone has posted the link to Graham's article in the Athletic on Thursday. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5699837/2024/09/19/christian-benford-bills-face-tattoo/ I didn't know anything about Benford. He grew up in the neighborhood that was the locale for The Wire. His childhood was full of murder, violence, hunger, and drugs. His parents, who didn't live together, in their separate ways got him into football and kept him there. It saved his life. Turns out he and Elam connected after they were drafted, and they work together a lot. They are constantly pumping each other up. Amazing story.

That is a great, great comment. The Bills were so far ahead of their time, they were behind! It's clear that the Bills have done this purposely. McDermott, of course, has always loved playing two deep, but he was smart enough to know that he had to mix it up. The off-season changes in the receiver room made it clear that the Bills were moving to a possession receiving game, too. The innovative offensive coordinators, particularly the Shanahan tree, will drive offensive evolution for the next year or two, and the creative defensive coordinators will be the guys who give their teams a big edge up. Shanahan's style, from his father, always featured a solid running game, and we're seeing a resurgence of running around the league. I was impressed with how the Bills shut down the Miami offense's short game. Maybe McDermott and Babich will be defensive thought leaders. The most interesting comment in that article is that teams around the league stopped spending on safeties. As they move more toward two-deep defensive calls, the skills necessary to play the position narrow, and it's becoming easier to find guys who can play the position. All you need is enough speed to do your job in the deep zones, and the size and tackling ability to stop the run. The corners and edge rushers are key as this offensive trend continues. There were a play or two where Groot dropped into coverage, and he looked pretty comfortable back there. That's probably the kind of edge guy who will become more important - a guy who has the pass rush moves but can play laterally, to protect the edge and the flats, wherever it's needed. He threw that ball to MVS very well. It was a good throw - he just missed it a bit. One of the things I liked about it was that he led MVS a bit across the field, so that the defender wasn't going to have a play on it. Earlier in his career, Josh didn't do that. It's important to remember how important familiarity with receivers is. Josh has had only three months with MVS, and MVS missed some time in the summer, too. Especially with the crowded wide-receiver room they had, that means that Josh hasn't had the kind of reps with MVS that are necessary to have the kind of deep accuracy that makes a QB-receiver tandem deadly.

Great video. Horrible audio.

I never noticed anything strange about McDaniel. 🙂

Whether it is normal or not, i don't know. But i am sure he asks his OC, "Do you have a play?" In this case, the snswer wss yes. Whatever the options were on that play, Josh knew exactly what to do. Very KC-like.

I think he already is. It looked to me on a few throws that Josh was improvising, and he intentionally looked to where he expected to find Kahlil.

Yes, it was amazing. Amazing how everything shut down in the second half. McDaniel in his press conference was almost totally incoherent talking about Tua. I don't think he even knows what he's thinking. He was lost. I have trouble seeing a guy with his personality and his overly-analytical style succeeding as a leader of men in this league. He's an odd guy. Anyone else have a lot of trouble with prime. There were instantaneous freezes throughout the game - either the video or the audio or both stopped for a few seconds. I had a few total freezes where I had to log out and log back in. But, of course, all the commercials ran fine.

And that, my friend, in a nutshell is why I am not writing this week.

I had the same reaction watching last night. It was so clearly every man doing his job, and no one was relied on to be the play maker. It was all about when it's your turn, do your job. The defense, particularly, looked like 11 no-names with two guys always about to make the tackle. It was refreshing.

That's nice to say, but the whole point is that that is NOT the Bills' philosophy, and if you're going to sit around waiting for the Bills to dictate, you're going to be sitting and waiting a long time. McDermott is very much a take-what-the-defense gives you guy. He wants players who are good at attacking wherever the defense is weak, because those are the easiest yards to get. The obvious example is the endless discussions over the summer about the wide receiver room. All summer, people kept complaining that the Bills didn't get a wide receiver who is a difference maker, the kind of guy you're talking about in Kelce. McDermott doesn't want to be structured that way, because when you run into a team that stops your difference maker, where do you go next? People this week were saying they were disappointed Kincaid didn't get more targets, and we didn't see much of Samuel. That's exactly the point - the ball is going to go where it's easy, and that's why Allen completed over 75% of his passes. All easy throws. Lamar Jackson is the ultimate difference maker, but when you stop Lamar, what do the Ravens have left? For McDermott, it's very much a true team game. His view is that 11 guys executing together are better than 10 guys and a difference maker. And that seems to be exactly why Diggs is playing for Houston.

I have to respond to several people who are, I think, undervaluing Von's contribution in the game and on this game. This discussion has reminded me that McDermott said several years ago that pressures are more important than sacks. Von had multiple pressures in the game, and I recall two or three that resulted from his classic bull-rush: catch the tackle off-balance or not quite set, knock him off balance, and drive him back. For his size, it's remarkable that Miller can be effective in this way. It's a combination of quickness, athletic ability, and strength. It is, more or less, what we saw Chris Jones do to Dawkins on the critical play in the playoffs last season. Most d linemen don't have a good bull-rush, and few have one as deadly as Miller's. To say that he doesn't look like his old self, at least with respect to this move, is unfair to Miller. He looks exactly like his old self with this move. The reason pressures are more important than sacks is pressures mean the player is creating an opportunity for the entire team. Pressures create sack opportunities, for the guy getting the pressure and for other rushers. Pressures tend to make the QB less effective on the rep, increasing the chances of an INT or an interception. Miller upset Murray multiple times on Sunday, and that, too, is just like the old Miller. One sack and multiple pressures is a good game for a defensive end, and doing it on only half the snaps is very good, indeed. Is there anyone at all who wouldn't be satisfied with 17 sacks and 35 pressures by Miller on the season? The principal think we didn't see from Miller was the extraordinary bend and wrap around the tackle to get a free run at the QB. However, when he circled around the tackle on Sunday, he executed better than he was doing last season, which he was still recovering. There isn't any reason to believe today that that move is gone. ACL recoveries are slow, but they are more or less complete, because the ACL doesn't really have anything to do with the flexibility of the knee. The ACL provides stability, not flexibility, so there is no reason (other than perhaps age) that Miller's full mobility will not return. And it usually until the second season that we see full recovery from ACL repairs. There's no reason to be writing him off, and there's no reason to be disappointed in his play on Sunday.