Shaw66

I agree. And I don't think it's a lot of stars, either. I'd like one real stud on the defense. I think the guys who got extended - Oliver, Rousseau, Bernard, Benford, are all really good at doing their jobs, but there isn't a star among them. If things work out well, Bosa could be the guy, and if he is, that could be enough to put them over the top. That's why I'm a fan of the Bills trading up this year. Package the first, a second, and some other picks to get up into the teens and go after a guy with the potential to be a real difference make. If the Bills got lucky and landed a guy like a Watt, a Bosa, a Parsons, or a Chris Jones, this defense would be real trouble for several seasons.

So, the Bills generally are getting good value in the draft, compared to consensus. That begs the question: Is Beane doing a good job, or is the consensus wrong? The real question is how well did teams draft when compared the to first three years of performance from the drafted players? A little tougher question to answer, but that is where the rubber meets the road.

Thanks for this. (You left off Jason Peters, who probably was the best offensive tackle ever to play for the Bills. I know most of his great years were with the Eagles, but he was a stud by the time he left Buffalo. He was already on a Hall of Fame trajectory.) I think you're point about corners and tight ends highlights a reality about those positions - they aren't game-changing positions, and you don't often find game-changing players at those positions. If you think about corners, what doesn it mean to have a shut down corner? Well, all it really means is that the game turns into 10-on-10 instead of 11-on-11. Shut-down corners don't win games; they just keep one player on the other team from beating you. Shut-down corners don't cause offenses to reshape their offense; the offense just limits their attack to less than the entire field. The offensive equivalent of a shut-down corner is the stud receiver - the Chases, Hills, Jeffersons, etc. Those guys can attack the entire field, so they actually do reshape the defense. They are, I think, more valuable than shut-down corners. I always thought it was interesting that for many years, Belichick built his defense around the shut-down corner. He had that other guy before he gave Gilmore a ton of cash. Between the two of them, the Pats had star corner talent for five or six years running. Belichick saw a real advantage in playing 10-on-10. I think the shut-down corner is no longer that valuable. Everyone, not just the Bills, is playing more zone these days, because it's the only way to cover the ever-changing route combinations offensives are attacking with. Playing straight man-to-man all day is a formula for losing, because offenses now always can find weaknesses to attack. Today, if you want to succeed playing strictly man, you need three really good cover corners, two good safeties, AND one or two good linebackers. Nobody has that. Zone is (and always has been) the way to cover your weaknesses, whether they are schematic weaknesses or personnel weaknesses.

Sure, but the assumption is that VPG will grow into a quality starter himself. It's that kind of building that Beane wants to do, the younger guy grows into the replacement before you need him. If the Bills extend McGovern without a plan to release him, then it means that they think VPG can't be what they hoped. I think in Beane's perfect world, VPG forces McGovern out of Buffalo. If that doesn't happen, it means Beane is looking, again, for a center in the free agent market.

And McGovern is one of those players, just like Morse, who may be cut free a year or two before his career is done. So if he gets an extension this year, I'd guess that he doesn't play out the full contract with the Bills.

I agree. It's gotta be a guy Beane has top 10 or 12 - a possible star - and he's falling in the teens. And I agree - only if they think he's a difference. If he's the best in a bad draft, that isn't enough.

I get this, but I like the argument the other way. When you say the "value starts in the mid-20s," you're talking about it like it's a market, and it is, to some extent. But just looking at value ignores need. What this team needs, in my opinion, is a player who's a difference maker. It's true, there are difference makers to be had in the second round, but they're very difficult to find. It's pure luck. The difference makers, we all know, are typically found in the top 15. Not every top 15 is a difference maker, but the chances of getting one there are much, much better than in the second round. The Bills have a good, solid roster. They always could use two or three starters out of the draft, but they have plenty of good starters. Much better to add one guy on the d line who turns out to demand double teams. He makes everyone around him better. A guy like that is hard to get in the second round. If the Bills were building, like maybe the Pats, I agree, give me the picks. But the Bills are built, and they're looking for someone to put them over the top. For that kind of guy, the Bills have go looking for him.

I would love a move into the teens, for whatever talent Beane sees there.

I agree with all of this. And I've noticed this change in the bold portion. I think he has signalled that he will be making moves. And I think with two seconds he is primed to move up in the first. He can make that move, save one second, then use the late round picks to move up some in the mid rounds.

I disagree. I think if you look at the team building that has gone on in the past couple of years, and particularly in light of the several extensions that were negotiated in the last couple of months, it's easy to see that the Bills are building a team designed to be at maximum strength during the prime of Josh Allen's career. They need one additional stud player to round out the lineup, someone who is a true playmaker. With the exception of Tre'davius White, the Bills have demonstrated that it is more a matter of luck than skill to get a really special player late in the first round, where the Bills are condemned to be drafting. Greg Russell is a perfect example; great player, but not a really special playmaker. Therefore, it wouldn't surprise me at all if McDermott were saying to Beane "get me a special guy." And it wouldn't surprise me at all if Beane were thinking that way on his own. We have seen Beane trade up before, when he sees a guy who is very high on his board who has fallen further than he anticipated. He did it with Edmonds, for example. I think if the right guy is someplace in the top 15 or 18, Beane will go after him. In my mind, the right guy is the 1T who will truly anchor the defensive line. A special guy in the middle would unleash Oliver and Rousseau, and then McDermott would have the defensive line he wants and needs to run his defense.

But there is a reason not to acquire an elite shutdown corner. A couple of them. Principally, McDermott's defense is designed to ask the corner to be an all-around. If he could, McDermott would have three Taron Johnsons. They won't change the defense to play a corner on an island because they have a player who's good at it. The second reason is that they want to keep the guys they draft, and if they draft a star corner, he'll leave after his first contract, because he's worth more to a team that does want to do what you say. Different coaches, but Gilmore left because the Bills didn't want true shutdown talent and Belichick did. They do it for Bosa because McDermott is as adamant about rushing four as he is about his corners being powerful run-support players. So, when the Bills go to the market for an edge, the guy has to be able to get to the quarterback. That's what every team wants, so the Bills are forced to pay the price for premier talent. At corner, on the other hand, the McDermott scheme makes it possible to fill the defensive backfield without paying premium prices, because the Bills don't build around a premier cover corner.

The Bills aren't in the market for a true shutdown corner. That is not the style that the Bills play. And since they don't particularly want a true shutdown corner, they won't pay the corner they do want at shutdown-corner prices. It's a very convenient for the Bills that the guys they want on the field are not, at least in the defensive backfield, the guys who establish the market. I think it's the same thing with Rousseau. The big-name flashy, 15-sack per season edge is usually not the guy the Bills want. They want a true all-round DE like Rousseau, who can rush the passer and can stop the run. So they get to sign Rousseau for less than big-name, market-setting guys. Where I have my doubts about this system is that I think sooner or later the Bills are going to a go-to play maker at some position in addition to Allen. That's not Benford and it's not Rousseau. With luck, it'll be Bosa for a year or two.

But it isn't strictly financial. It's about how good the team is. The same money to play for a dozen other teams isn't nearly as attractive as getting that money to play with Allen and a perennial playoff team.

I agree, and it's a bit more than that. It's at the point where it has become the culture. Arguably everyone extended this season could have done better as a free agent in a year. The guys on their first contract are seeing the guys a couple of years ahead of them taking less than top dollar because they want to stay with this team. Those younger guys know that what they're working for is to get offered a long-term deal at maybe less than the market, and they want it. It's an amazing team culture.

The thing about all rankings like this is that they are biased in favor of certain teams over others. In the case of this ranking, it's easy to see how they could have a bias toward good teams. If you have a good team and you pick up Joey Bosa, the commentators think, "home run!" Why? Because the Bills are good and they can see how a talent like Bosa will make them so much better. No matter whom the Jets sign, the commentators will think they had a bad preseason, because it's hard to see the Jets getting better until there's an answer at QB. Rankings after the draft are like this, too. Some team that had two first round picks will always be ranked higher than a team that had none. Seems to me, a true ranking of excellence would measure how you did against how much draft capital you started with. Still, it's nice to know that somebody ranked your team as the best at something.

Did you know that in the Olympics in ancient Greece the athletes competed naked? I never missed those.

I was and I do. New Highmark? Maybe. Oh, and I was at the first regular season game at the Rockpile.

The man who brought down an empire!

There is nothing - NOTHING - about the Bills on the business side of the house that is not about making money. Nothing. The NFL is about making money, and the NFL effectively requires that each of its teams be about making money. Jerry Jones gets richer only if the other 31 teams are getting richer, too. The owners will not tolerate a team marketing itself by criticizing it's own product. Lexus doesn't do that. Facebook doesn't do that. No successful business organization does that. Why did the Bills pull the plug on the Buffalo Bills Message Board? Because it didn't make any money. Why did they pull the plug on the Jills? They didn't make any money. The day Steve Tasker starts criticizing the Bills, the Bills will pull the plug on him. Pretty simple, and to expect otherwise is naive.

I was there too. I remember nothing about the game. And a card. I still have both.

Hah! No comment? Or, no, the Bills don't need a high priced back?

I can't say you're wrong, but I'm not sure you're right, for a different reason. I don't think it makes sense to count on finding a T White at 27. T. White was a finished product the day he arrived. He got better, sure, but he was a guy the Bills could on the field and they were going to get very good all-round play. That kind of talent typically doesn't fall any more. But more importantly, as much as they'd certainly love to a true stud corner, I think the Bills would rather have a true stud linebacker or a true stud defensive lineman. A true stud playing in the front seven is in or around the ball on a much higher percentage of the plays than a DB, and being close to the ball has more value to the team. A Myles Garrett or a Chris Jones is much more disruptive to the offense than anyone other that a true stud shut-down corner. And even with a great corner, offenses adjust.

I read the title of this thread and thought that Lull was a free agent I should know about. Does he play offense or defense?

Actually, I think it works sort of the other way. You design schemes that get everyone open, one guy this play, another guy the next. Then, within that scheme you begin to see opportunities to use your best players' talents to attach more spaces. I think, for example, that that's how Kelce has caught so many passes. They have schemes to get everyone open, and then they use Kelce's special skills -mostly his brain and understanding of how the offense works, to get to spots on the field from within the scheme. I think, for example, that the difference between Knox and Kincaid is that Kincaid's skills allow him to attack open spots in the defense better than Knox's skills would allow him to do that. So, it's not creating plays for Kincaid (although there is certainly some of that) as much as it is letting Kincaid's skill take advantage of what's already there. For example, the play call may send the tight end up the seam. Every team will run that pattern, and the Bills have run it with Knox since he's been in Buffalo. But when a healthy Kincaid runs it, he can get separation that Knox can't. Or he can challenge the defense in a way that Knox can't. The Bills will send Knox on that route, and other teams will send their tight ends on that route; it's just Kincaid is the kind of guy who can get more out of the play than the average tight end.

I'm not a good enough observer to know any of this for sure, but I think the focus on Brady is correct. I don't think it's limited to premiere playmakers. The intention of this passing game is to, by design, stress the defense so that they can't defend every area on the field. That's how they intend to create opportunities for receivers, premiere or otherwise. By my eyes, that wasn't happening as the season progressed. The easy throws that Allen got earlier in the season evaporated. I think a lot is on Brady.