Shaw66

That is, whether we like it or not, exactly what McDermott intends. As for 20+ yard plays correlating with touchdown drives, I'd guess that's true for every team.

Thanks for this. Good stuff. I don't completely agree that coordinators are not worried about the Bills going deep. In the piece by Kubiak in the news that someone discussed, Kubiak said that teams are playing two deep a lot against the Bills. Right after I read I happened to see a replay from the Chiefs all-22, also in a thread, where Allen threw to Shakir, I think, in the right flat for a nice gain. It was just what Kubiak said - two deep safeties. And the play worked in part because those guys were so deep. Once Shakir beat the first defenders, he had a lot of running room, precisely because the safeties were still 15 yards away. Whatever. I really the last sentence. The Bills didn't make that choice this week. They made if eight weeks ago, if not four months ago. This is the way they want to play. It doesn't make sense to you. To me, I sort of get it, but it sure seems odd to choose that style. And the big problem that we've often mentioned is that what they've actually is a good style for piling up wins in the regular season, but it puts the team at a disadvantage in the playoffs, where the talent and intensity goes up. It's in those games where a true deep threat can be valuable, if only to stretch the defense.

This is a really good take. I mean, I don't know the talent well enough to know if there was a guy who would really help, but I agree that Beane needs to, and apparently did, operate with brains and not overspend out of desperation. In thinking about the additions the Bills might have needed and gotten, began to have different view of how they run their personnel. When the Bills need a guy at a position because a starter has gone down, they don't sign free agents to replace the injured guy. They promote from within, and they sign a free agent with potential to grow and block him into the bottom on the depth chart, on the practice squad. Then they work their way up, maybe passing someone, maybe just waiting in line. The Bills do that because what's most important to them is having the guys on the field execute their assignments. They don't want to take a talented free agent and plug him into a system where he doesn't know or do his assignment consistently. Even the vets they brought back have had to work their way up from the bottom. Poyer, Philips, Gabe Davis. Tre White. That philosophy makes the Bills less likely to make a splash at the trade deadline, because the Bills prefer to fill holes with the next guy in line in the system.

And it also explains why Allen went from the fake to Shakir, the look at Shavers, then the look over the middle, and then around to Davis in the flat. When he looked over the middle, he wasn't looking for Moore crossing - he was looking for Kincaid.

I don't agree. Allen didn't even stop to consider the throw to Moore. He moved his feet to be in position to throw to him and immediately moved his feet in order to make an off-balance throw to Davis. If the Bills don't want him making that throw, then I'll say more emphatically, the Bills need a new offensive coordinator. As I said earlier, Mahomes makes that throw to JuJu, and Andy Reid wants it all day.

One other thing about all of this. It's interesting and instructive that we're talking about the offense, particularly the passing game, after a 40-9 blowout win. Why is it interesting and instructive? Because we're all seeing the same thing, even against the Panthers: The offense is not very effective. Bills were winning 6-0 in a game where in most seasons it would have been 14-0. We're seeing Josh, look confused and get sacked. We're seeing bad throws, missed open receivers. We've seen the Bills lose two games where they gave up 23 and 24 points; in each game the offense was ineffective, and the Bills lost more because they couldn't score than because the defense let them down. It's been pretty ugly. Take away the gaping holes the Panthers kept giving up in the run game and a couple of big defensive plays, and the Bills would have found themselves in another tight game. Something has to change.

Moore is supposed to get the ball on that play I think you've described the play accurately. Watch Allen's feet. He sets his feet to fake the throw on the screen, then he resets to look downfield. Shavers is covered AND the safety has turned to go that way, too. Allen resets his feet a third time, just as he was taught, to be in position to throw to Moore, but almost immediately resets to find the outlet in the left flat. It's a mistake by Allen. His feet do what he's supposed to do, but his brain doesn't. The play design is if he doesn't have the throw to Shavers, he's supposed to come off Shavers and find Moore. He knows he has Moore in single coverage because he's just seen the safety break to help on Shavers. He sets his feet to make the throw to Moore and then comes off it almost immediately. The play is designed for him to make one of three choices - Shavers, Moore, Davis. He had Moore and rushed right through the choice.

No way. In the first place, the defender is clearly trailing Moore, and Allen can lead him either across the end zone or throw it shorter and let Moore go down for the ball inside the five. Either way, the only way the defender can make a play is by going through Moore, and then they get the interference call. If, as you say, Allen can make the throw, it's a gimme touchdown. Should he throw it to Moore? Absolutely! What makes you think he shouldn't throw it to him? Because Moore only has five receptions season? Moore's a quality NFL receiver. He's not a star, but he's a quality receiver. 80 receptions in 8 games his last year of college, drafted 34th overall, averaged 50 catches a year in his first four seasons in the league playing on lousy teams with lousy quarterbacks. Yes, you absolutely throw the ball to him. JuJu Smith-Schuster averages 50 receptions a year. You think Mahomes doesn't throw that ball? I think Brady has Allen all screwed up.

But that doesn't explain Josh simply not seeing a gimme touchdown two Moore. No safety over the top. Moore with a step and a half on the defender. We've seen Josh throw 10 touchdowns like that. He should have seen that opportunity in his pre-snap read, he should have looked off the safety and come back to Moore for the touchdown. Simple completion that any good quarterback will take. My only explanation for not making that throw is that Josh was not prepared to execute that play the way it was designed. He's done it regularly in years past, and the coaches need to figure out how to get him back to doing it.

These are both good examples. I think Josh's decision making has taken a big step backward this season. I don't know if it's Josh or how he's being preparing. One factor is calling the protections. You say the problem on the first video is the edge is unblocked. Well, it's pretty obvious pre-snap that the edge is unblocked, and Josh is supposed to do something about that. Either have a hot read and not worry about the guy, or adjust the blocking. I saw another one like this yesterday where a linebacker on the offensive left side lined up unblocked and had a straight run at Josh, forcing an incompletion. And as you say, on the second one, Moore is open for the touchdown. Josh has made that throw for years. Why isn't he recognizing almost from the beginning of the play that he has this throw? I don't think Josh is properly prepared. This is way he looked in his first two or three seasons. It's a significant regression from the last couple of seasons.

These are good examples, and I saw a few others during the game, too. Remember, in training camp and in the beginning of the season, Josh was intentionally looking for Coleman, and they worked a lot on their timing. That's all gone away now. Now it seems Josh seems only to go to Keon on throws that are contested catches where Keon has to win a 50-50 battle for the ball. Three years ago, two years ago, when we all were saying Josh was the MVP and he wasn't getting the award, he was hitting wide open receivers a lot because the schemes were getting guys open and Josh understood where those openings were. Now, it seems like every completion is a struggle. Cook and Johnson have disappeared from the passing game. Kincaid and Knox have disappeared. I simply don't believe that all of these guys are that much worse than all the other receivers in the league.

I agree with this. And what it speaks to is the player personnel and style philosophy that I talk about often. McDermott's philosophy is that good, versatile, competitive players can be molded into a team that, as a team, plays better than teams with more talented but less versatile players. That's certainly the philosophy for receivers, but it's also the philosophy for the offensive line. I mention the line because another part of the problem that the offensive is having is inconsistent pass protection. They aren't, as a group, good pass protectors. Allen has been in trouble in the pocket often this season. He's taken several sacks while in the pocket. Defensive line, the same thing. If Rousseau is your star, you'd better be running really good schemes. That may be a good philosophy for team building. One thing that's good about a team that depends on teamwork to win, rather than star talent, is that when injuries happen, the next man up isn't replacing a star, he's replacing just another guy. However, that philosophy requires that the team have excellence in another place, and that's coaching. If you're going to play with average talent and rely on teamwork to win, you need coaches who build teamwork. And those coaches have to have excellent schemes in place, week after week, because executing those schemes is what gives your average talent an edge. We definitely are not seeing that edge in the receiving game. And, to be honest, I don't expect to see that edge in the running game against the Chiefs. And we've only seen the edge in the defensive game inconsistently. I really don't think it's a Beane problem. I think Beane is getting the kind of players McDermott wants. I mean, instead of trading up for a receiver, he traded back to take Coleman, and no one in the football world thought Coleman was a guy who would blow the top off defenses. They took him for a reason. Most people around here were excited when Beane took Kincaid, and the guy has kind of disappeared. Since Diggs, the only quality receiving talent Beane has gone after was Cooper. It's completely clear that the problem lies in the kind of game McDermott is trying to play. I mean, think about this way: Do you really think Beane would still be the GM if McDermott were sitting in his office every night for the past three seasons thinking, "why can't Brandon get me at least one good receiver?" I don't. If that's what McDermott thought, he would have told Terry Pegula he needed a new GM, and Beane would have been gone. McDermott has the kind of players he wanted, and he and his coaches are not delivering the kind of success he thought they could.

And it may also explain why the Bills' star receiving tight end also seems to have disappeared. The Bills have actual professional receivers all over the line up and don't have a passing game. My guess is they're all keeping their mouths shut, because they're good team players, but in their heads they're thinking "WTF?"

Sorry, I just wrote the same thing without having seen this post. I think it's pretty clear that serviceable receivers seem to become bums when they arrive in this offense. And it maybe, just maybe, it explains why Diggs became increasingly unhappy in Buffalo.

Haven't read all the comments, but it seems that the gist of them is the Bills need some better receivers. I'd like the Bills to have better receivers, too, but I'm not sure that's the problem. I'd suggest that Joe Brady and perhaps Sean McDermott are the problems. And I think there are some pretty simple statistics that demonstrate why: In 4+ years in the league, playing on two lousy teams with lousy quarterbacks, Elijah Moore averaged 52 receptions for over 500 yards and 2 TDs over 17 games. He is way below that average with the Bills and a HOF quarterback. He's on pace for 15 receptions and 200 yards. In his years in the league, playing his first seven on two lousy teams and with lousy quarterbacks, Curtis Samuel averaged 55 receptions for over 500 yards and four TDs over 17 games. He is way below that average with the Bills and a HOF quarterback. He's on pace for 10 receptions and 100 yards. Somehow, coaches for the Jets and the Browns and the Panthers and Washingtons knew how to get the ball to these guys 600 yards per season, even though they didn't have Josh Allen throwing and they didn't have James Cook putting up 150 yards rushing. Neither one of those guys is world-beater, but the production for both of them declined significantly as soon as they arrived in Buffalo and began playing for Brady and McDermott.