corta765

My guess is one is staying to not shake the apple cart completely and based off performance and health I expect it to be Poyer. If the Bills win the SB Hyde is retiring on spot, otherwise I just can't devote cap space to him at this point.

Bills 24 Steelers 19 Bills control the game through as they go up 14-7 at half thanks to Allen TD pass to Diggs and running one in. Steelers get a FG out of half to make it 14-10, but the offense takes it time for Cook TD at the goal line. Steelers get a FG to stay close, but an early Ruldolph fumble at midfield allows the Bills to run more clock and Bass hits a FG from 35 yds out to ice the game at 24-13 with 3:30 left. A late Steelers TD kills the spread, but no matter 24-19 onto to the divisional round. Allen 241 yds 20-27 1 TD 55 yds rush Cook 89 yds 10 carries 1 TD Davis 107 yds 4 rec Oliver 2 sacks and FF

His sainthood is overboard but the offense was far more consistent, creative, and dynamic with Daboll. With Dorsey the offense clearly regressed in those areas and was incredibly predictable. The Bills rushing attack with Daboll was 8th in 2019, 19th in 2020, and 6th in 2021 so that is kind of a weird angle to pick. The biggest credit with Daboll was he seemed to settle Josh down in 2020 and 2021 in way that truly limited his mistakes or goofball mistakes. Before and after those years Josh has had more of those highs and lows and I think that is the big thing people look at was what he managed to do there.

haha oh boy lets recap how bold I was and how bad it got ARZ- goes 1-16 with only win against ATL (ended better but still near bottom) BAL- miss the playoffs despite Lamar playing all year as division attrition and WC tie breaker vs Jets haunts them (whoops) CAR- wins division at 10-7 (holy f*ck this was bad) CHI- only go 6-11 and Fields ends up being a more glorified runner then passer and again CHI has to ask what to do at QB (close) DAL- make the SB (TBD) DET- fail to win division and barely make playoffs at 9-8 (MIN wins again at 10-7) (I think had Cousins not been healthy MIN would've won it) DEN- win the AFC W at 11-6 (they got closer then most thought) GB- go 5-12 as the bottom falls out for real and Love is not the answer. welcome to QB purgatory (missed) JAX- take AFC 1 seed at 13-4 (happily wrong about) LAC- implode at 6-11 and Staley is fired (nailed it) LAR - bounce back to a 9-8 record and just miss wildcard (almost got it) MIA- Tua plays all 17 games and they go 11-6 winning a game in the wildcard (got record right lets see if they beat KC) NYG- luck smiles the opposite way as they go 7-10 and are never really close to being in the hunt at any point (nailed) NYJ- make the playoffs as the final WC spot but get bounced in first round after blowing a 20-3 lead at halftime (Rodgers injury ruined this week 1) PHI- the NFC East finally sees a division winner repeat as the Eagles repeat but lose in the divisional round to Dallas at home (imploding) PIT- The non losing season run ends as they go 6-11 as Pickett fails to take the next step and being in a tough division wrecks havoc as they finally finish 4th (luckiest wildcard team ever, statistically they are a 6-11 team) SEA- they win the NFC West and 1 seed at 12-5 (Geno and the offense failed) SF- they make the playoffs but as a wild card as 10-7 as QB uncertainty finally catches them a little (whoops) WSH- New ownership brings in a new era... but the results on the field are worse as they go 3-14 and end up picking 2nd in the draft (spot on nailed it) I would say I nailed 3 of these, was close on three others

Agreed. Brady I think is trying his best to not fully overhaul the offense as you really can't at this point while adding easier throws, motion, play action... basically all the sh*t Dorsey didn't do that limited the offense. I expect whoever is the OC next year blends more of this regularly in and makes Kincaid/Shakir a larger focus the way Beasley was to have an easy option. Daboll really got the offense excelling once he got Josh on that page and presented it. I think Warner has actually had some of the best analysis of Josh.

That is why I said top 10. He had a superb year and most stats he is top 5 or better. I 100% agree though he is in the next group below. The five you mentioned are the elite and everyone after have the potential to be close but not the same. Stroud could be elite just need more time to see how it plays out. The big issue with the potential top 10 group you listed is they are good enough to win a SB in perfect conditions, but the contract your going to pay will also limit your roster building which is why guys like Carr and Mayfield seemed to regress as the talent had to leave.

It is certainly an interesting situation. You can reasonably say he is a Top 10 QB and I do believe with a good set of weapons (healthy) he can win a SB. But they faded down the stretch and he was at fault not making plays. In 2020 it was win and get in and he looked awful, last night he was OK at best. Once that money is paid the expectation is you can elevate your team at points. Tyreek is one of a kind and once he is gone what happens? I think all of that probably made last night even worse for PHIN fans as they know this to be true and if they cannot make a run this post season the table only gets harder.

I agree with this. I like Tua and think he is a good QB, they have done a good job with McDaniel building him and the team up. I couldn't imagine with how high they were feeling and their playoff history which is pretty dark going on 3 decades how yesterday feels to get stomped out when it felt for so long like breakthrough. I still thing for the foreseable future they are a problem and do win a division while being competitive, BUT Hill is aging, they have to pay Tua, and their cap isn't great. The time with Tua still being cheap was the last two years, now like every other QB who gets paid it puts more of the onus on him and they could have regret 2-3 years down the road.

Apparently 80% of the NFL is built on native american burial grounds lol

I think some teams also just have teams that are bad matchups. The Jets since Saleh got his D in have been pretty tough for Josh as they seem to really do a good job in the secondary on how they defend him and have the horses to do enough up front to constantly have pressure. I think the Bills truthfully are a bad matchup for the type of team Buffalo has v MIA or even SF. Both passers are great timing passers that rely on scheme and motion to excel. Disrupt that and both have issues, create pressure up front and it is a problem. Be physical with their WRs and they will fade as the game goes on. The Patriots during their run always seemed to have the Steelers number, but I really think part of it was they baited PIT into a street fight regularly and then just torched them when they weren't paying attention to the actual scheme because they were too focused on physicality. I think CIN is an atrocious matchup for Buffalo because Lou on D excels at pressing our WR's and creating pressure across the board while their offense seems to like contact and a smash mouth style which until this year Buffalo's D failed at.

Agreed. 2019 defense was probably the last truly physical unit I can remember with McD, since then was more rope a dope.

Yep and they have mixed NCB/LB together which is becoming a real weapon or even SAF/LB the way the Bills will use Poyer or Rapp. I am still a firm believer that a true top slot WR or TE can open an offense more then any other position and is basically unguardable. Kincaid has looked very good as a rookie and I am hopeful long term he can be what Beasley was for Josh.

Offense v Defense has forever been cat and mouse game that keeps evolving. I posted a while back that offenses this season are down compared the last decade and heading into this weekend teams are averaging 21.95 ppg. Comparatively the last five years offenses in the NFL averaged the following ppg: Defenses have evolved and it is not just playing Cover-2 shell, but far more creative blitz packages that do not send a ton of rushers but are very focused on how they attack the QB while covering the defense. Offenses are having to earn their yards far more then before. Additionally offensive line play has regressed as they keep reducing practices which takes away important developmental time. McDaniel and Miami were ahead of teams for awhile last year, but teams have caught up to there motion offense and figured out how to disrupt Tua better. I do think this year is a bit of blip with the ppg cratering to levels not seen since 2010ish and the injuries to so many major QBs also removed some of the better QBs from being able to drive offenses. But there certainly has been a swing back to defense this year which has been growing for 2-3 years now and I think you are seeing that in spades.

your sacrifice was acceptable

This is a good post and I will add one thing. The playoffs and going on runs use to be much harder pre wildcard expansion to 6 teams or especially now with 7. Many of your best QBs until expansion in 1990 had years they missed and had a good to great season as a team and didn't even make the dance. Winning your division was truly paramount if you wanted a guaranteed shot to make it. The additional error allows for a bit more of an up and down type season and favors elite QBs as if they can get in the sky is the limit. Brady 2020 and Rodgers 2010 both showed that and truthfully I wouldn't be surprised if over the next few decades more wildcard winners happen as any elite QB who gets in will have a shot.

On pure logic Buffalo is favorites because injuries aren't present whereas Miami is just hurt so much across the board. I just think Miami's line issues on both sides really make it a hard task when Buffalo's D line is the healthiest its been all season and Buffalo's O Line has played all year together well. IF Miami was not as banged up I actually would take them without issue.

*This prediction is completely based on the Bills needing to win to get in, if BUF has a spot prior to game I have zero idea what happens as I can see BUF and MIA both letting down in a weird way Bills 27 Dolphins 20 Honestly I couldn't get a feel for this game until yesterday when the pro bowl rosters came out and Miami's injury report did. The Pro Bowl rosters and lack of respect shown for the Bills is beyond fuel for the guys and something teams take to heart big time. The injury report for Miami is insane, they are where we were back in October where we became the walking wounded for a while. Their trenches are a disaster which helps Buffalo immensely especially keeping Tua in check. I think the Bills offense gets them out to a 13-6 lead at half as both teams are more measured in approach then in the 1st matchup. Diggs gets the Bills TD early to shed some of his quietness lately. Second half Hyde gets an INT deep in the Bills zone as Tua gets hit on a deep pass. Buffalo marches down and scores on a Kincaid TD from 5 yards out to go up 20-6. Miami and Buffalo trade TD's on subsequent possessions as Tyreek gets a TD on an end around and Buffalo sees Cook go on a 30 yard TD to go up 27-13. Buffalo holds Miami and drains a sizable amount of time before Bass misses a FG. Miami scores with 5 mins to go, but the Bills drain the clock and get the division. Allen 22-31 282 yds 2 TDs 43 yds rush Cook 110 yds 14 atts 1 TD Diggs 101 yds 1 TD 7 rec Groot 1 sacks 3 TFL

Agreed. Chargers may have quit last week but that also just cost them coach and GM along with a massive amount of embarrassment. They are going to at least come out and play to show that they are something which is always dangerous. It is why I have Buffalo winning 27-16, I think Chargers hand around enough as guys like Mack and some other vets aren't going to settle after last week and play with some true pride. As long as Buffalo is focused their fine, but there is no toss up.

Technically lost in translation

Buffalos 27 Lighting Type Activity 16 Chargers get an early 3-0 lead to show their not rolling over but Bills respond with a Diggs 20 yard TD. Bills and Chargers trade FGs before the Bills get an INT late 2nd quarter and Murray pounds a TD in to make it 17-6 at half. Bills get the ball and go on a long drive but stall with a FG after Knox drops a TD to make it 20-6. The Chargers are fiesty and manage to drive for a TD late in the 3rd quarter to make it 20-13 as the WNY locals get restless. But Allen and crew methodically work the field and Kincaid scores from 5 yards out to finish the game off at 27-13. Late garbage FG for the Chargers and then Buffalo runs the clock out. Allen 23-30 251 2 TDs 40 yards rushing Murray 65 yds 6 atts 1 TD Diggs 131 yds 1 TD 7 rec Groot 2 sacks

For drainage reasons when they built the new stadium the field was pitched so water/snow goes to the sides from the middle. Before they put the current turf in and we just had the carpet astro turf it was so serve the arc you could literally see the field height difference. I believe the old crown was 18 inches of height difference from side to middle and the current is more like 6 as they are better with drainage and absorbing the water.

Yep. The offense with Dorsey I lost the confidence in terms of the offense being consistent, but Josh always gives you a chance and they were not the worst offense in the league either. Brady has unlocked the offense back to the 2020 feels where I feel whatever the score is they can do it. But the defense was the big issue. NE & DEN they wilted so badly and blew leads late. PHI I don't criticize as much as they are a good team, but the other two just can't happen and it felt like even if the offense was rolling could the D just make some plays. The bye seems to allowed some healing injury wise along with the coaching staff to figure a few things out.

Def flattened a lot. I was on the field in September 2022 for the Bills 5k and it is not nearly the pitch it use to be anymore. You can still see it a little but not like the astro turf days haha.

It is why I think Poyer ends up staying on a redone contract that has incentives he can hit. The CBs are fine with Douglas Benford Johnson, but safety wise even if they are refreshing I see him wanting one vet and Poyer has been decent enough to stay.

It goes like this for me: Expect to be here next year: Benford - CB2 perfect as that role Douglas - I can see them adding another or year or two to space out the contract past 24' and lower his cap number Johnson - Most underrated NCB in the league and they get another year of him 50/50: Elam - I can see them trading him or I can see them bringing him back and seeing healthy if he can be more of what they thought Jackson - He is free agent and done enough to probably earn a larger spot somewhere else for more money if it comes. Otherwise he is fine as a CB4/NCB mix Poyer- If he is really to renegotiate I think they keep him for a year so the safety room isn't completely barren Gone: Hamlin - Hasn't shown enough and with a quieter off season it is easier to let him go Hyde - Makes me sad to type as he was such a great signing and important piece that reset the foundation of the Bills, but the injuries are real and his play has dropped. Honestly hope he retires so he can be healthy Tre White - Tre has three major things working against him 1. injuries 2. cap hit 3. log jam of CBs now in front of him. Tre at his best is ahead of any CB Buffalo has but with two major knee injuries as he approaches 30 he just isn't that guy anymore. The cap hit and savings is huge if he is gone and the risk to keep him doesn't justify the cost. Kills me to say as he was such a great important player, but someone will pay for what he was hoping he can regain form and I don't see him signing a cheap flyer to stay. Rapp - Was worth a one year flyer to see if he could be a piece in the future. He isn't on to the next. With all of that said my expectation is this next year: CB: Douglas, Benford, Johnson, Elam, draft pick rnd 4-6, vet free agent SAF: Poyer, free agent modest money (Jalen Mills/Darnell Savage/Mike Edwards type), draft pick rnd 2-4, draft pick rnd 5-7, vet minimum FA (John Johnson type)