Royale with Cheese

The roster isn't complete right now and his production isn't completely irreplaceable. He's worth giving up to get a better OL or WR.

Ed Oliver isn't making or breaking our Super Bowl chances.

You cried when BTS broke up didn't you?

BWORD...that guy ain't Asian.

I've been putting data from different sites up in this thread.

He's not a bad player. He was supposed to be the terror on the inside. He's not. He's an inconsistent above average player.

I specifically used this gif because I have a feeling you look like him.

Enjoyed is past tense...

I just gave you 7 players that started as rookies, not to mention Milano, Bedford and Elam contributed a lot as well but weren't full time starters. Dawkins contract extension White contract extension Allen contract extension Edmunds one of the highest paid LB LOL

LOL okay. Historic Success Chart The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters: 1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%) 2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%) 3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%) 4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%) 5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%) 6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%) 7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

All started as rookies. I obviously left Josh Allen out because he wasn't supposed to start. McDermott plays rookies a lot. Tre White Ed Oliver Tremaine Edmunds Spencer Brown Devin Singletary Dawson Knox

https://www.nfl.com/videos/jeremiah-bills-are-no-1-potential-landing-spot-for-deandre-hopkins

A lot of graphs and data in this study. It's athleticism vs production on the prospects. Bills are one of the teams that apparently don't put an emphasis on combine results. https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2022/04/28/study-athleticism-vs-production-what-is-valued-in-the-nfl/ The Packers, Eagles, and Titans are the only teams to draft above-average athletes at this stage. These are teams that historically bank on players’ athletic traits. The Titans, Browns, and Rams are teams that look for production in college for their picks. The Panthers, Bills, Lions, 49ers, and Steelers evidently have little emphasis on combine results. The Giants, Bears, and Panthers evidently do not care for college production. The red dotted lines indicate the average/average prospect, which matches across all plots. Comparing teams over each of these charts holds some interesting results, as the Chiefs and Rams tend to draft more productive players later in the draft, and the 49ers go from a combine-heavy team to a team that doesn’t care for it as the draft progresses. Another big takeaway is how athleticism tails off as we approach the later stages of the draft, where production remains a bit steadier. This implies teams emphasizing the combine early, and keeping the same emphasis on production throughout. Overall, the teams drift from the highly productive and highly athletic players, to the ones who don’t measure up as well. The overall takeaway and the study’s bottom line is that college production and combine results BOTH matter to NFL teams.

Milfs…edited title.

Aunt Becky - Full House Nancy Botwin - Weeds Betty Draper - Mad Men Lindsey Bluth - Arrested Development

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high Five years ago I did a piece detailing how most draft picks are busts, based on a study of 1996-2016 draft picks. The results, which are based on the Pro Football Reference AV metric, are sobering: 16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them 37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team. 15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had. 10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years. 12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters, Pat Elflein or Christian Ponder for example, or perhaps some genuinely good players that didn’t last all that long for the team that drafted them- Sidney Rice for example. This is where the AV metric can over-rate a player based on the number of starts, rather than their performance while on the field. 6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years. 1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers. And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.

https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/breakdowns/the-hidden-reality-of-draft-value-part-1/ Initial view of the Data A quick look at what happens to picks who receive second contracts show an interesting story in the graph below: The three largest groups that share the greatest proportion of the same result lie in the picks from round one to round three whose second contracts come with different teams. This is 50% of round one picks, 43% of round two picks, and 32% of round three picks The 4th greatest proportion (31%) is those round one picks whose second contract came from the same team The order of these proportions speaks to teams’ willingness to take a chance on draft pedigree even for the second contract. Round one through round three picks will often get a second chance in the league somewhere else. Based on the 2010-2017 data, the most likely outcome for a player drafted in rounds one and two is a second contract with a different team. For round three, the most likely outcome is no second contract (51%), but a second contract is almost a coin toss at this point.

That's exactly how I viewed it as well.

https://bamahammer.com/2022/04/23/alabama-football-11/ One thing is clear from reviewing Futiak’s work; NFL Draft success is matched by the win-loss records of teams. The college football ‘haves’ produce far more NFL players than do the ‘have nots.’ Alabama Football and other teams, NFL Draft production No. 1 – Alabama Crimson Tide – In the 2017 through 2021 NFL Drafts, 51 of Nick Saban’s players were selected by NFL teams. Undrafted free agents who signed NFL deals are not included. No. 2 – Ohio State Buckeyes with 43 players drafted No. 3 – LSU Bengal Tigers with 39 players drafted. No. 4 – Michigan Wolverines with 36 players drafted No. 5 – Florida Gators with 33 players drafted No. 6 – Georgia Bulldogs with 28 players drafted Tied at No. 7 with 27 players drafted were Notre Dame, Miami and Clemson. Rounding out the Top 10 were the Oklahoma Sooners with 25 players drafted. Other SEC Football Teams No. 13 – Auburn Tigers with 22 players drafted No. 14 – Texas A&M Aggies with 21 players drafted No. 20 (Tie) – Mississippi State Bulldogs with 17 players drafted No. 26 (tie) – Ole Miss Rebels with 15 players drafted No. 31 (tie) – Tennessee Volunteers and Kentucky Wildcats with 13 players drafted No. 33 (tie) – South Carolina Gamecocks and Arkansas Razorbacks with 12 players drafted No. 39 (tie) – Missouri Tigers with 11 players drafted No. 57 (tie) – Vanderbilt Commodores with seven players drafted A review of how many of the drafted players were on NFL rosters last season might prove interesting. As snapshop, we offer a comparsion of four of the top teams. Eighty percent of Georgia players drafted were on NFL rosters last season. The number for the Crimson Tide was 82%; Ohio State was 86% and LSU was 90%.

Some of these are a little old but I think it's probably roughly the same as now. Outside of OL and LB and maybe TE....its only a little better than crap shoot after that. https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round Historic Success Chart The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters: 1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%) 2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%) 3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%) 4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%) 5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%) 6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%) 7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%) https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft Grand Conclusions Safest first-round picks: Safety, linebacker, interior offensive line At safety, you're three times more likely to draft a Pro Bowler than a bust in the first round. And only the interior offensive line positions have produced All-Pros more frequently. Riskiest first-round picks: Running back, defensive line, wide receiver There are more busts than Pro Bowlers coming out of the first round at running back and defensive line, while it's about even for wide receivers. Biggest tossups in the first round: Quarterback, cornerback Quarterback is the only position above 40 percent when it comes to producing both Pro Bowlers and busts over the 25-year sample. It remains above 30 percent in both areas in the 10-year sample. Safest top-10 picks: Offensive line, defensive back A little more broad, but we could find only 22 busts out of 100 picks from the two samples at the offensive line and defensive back positions. That's compared to 46 Pro Bowlers. Riskiest top-10 picks: Running back, wide receiver, defensive line Running backs are twice as likely to bust than become Pro Bowlers, while receivers and defensive linemen are in the same range. Biggest tossups in the top 10: Quarterback, linebacker The gap between Pro Bowler and bust is smallest for these two positions within both the 25- and 10-year sample. Safest top-five picks: Offensive line, defensive back But wide receivers have also been a solid top-five pick in recent years. Riskiest top-five picks: Running back, linebacker, defensive line Linebacker is the only position that goes from safe in the first round to unsafe at the very top. Running backs and defensive linemen are risks across the first-round board. Biggest toss-ups in the top five: Quarterback Wide receivers and defensive linemen also qualify, but it's to a lesser extent. https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/?sh=2f381c6d7495 In sum, the expectation that first-round picks are more likely to start, succeed, and have staying power is confirmed. However, with 40% of 2014's starters and 38% of All-Pros from 2012 through 2014 coming after the 2nd round (with 14% and 10% of these being undrafted players), this shows there's value deep into the draft.

A HUGE miss step? Harris will contribute and start on this offense. Generally 3rd round picks don't start.

DJ Fluker attempting a comeback.

Is it announced??

I think Khazmat would destroy him. I used to be big on Covington but I think he's still good but not a true contender anymore.