Ayjent

I know boards had moved him up to the top by March/April - but at the end of the NCAA season Allen and Jackson were likely 2nd rounders, definitely not considered with the big 3 of Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield. It's funny how all of this stuff shakes out during the time between the end of the College season and the draft. So he looked really impressive as an athlete and probably didn't come off as an arrogant jackass in the interviews so he rose up the boards, but not because of his on-field abilities, because of his potential. We see these guys rise like this all the time - Gabbert, Tannehill, and Mahomes as well (although I liked his game way more than Allen's, but still thought the Chiefs were crazy taking him so high). Honestly, Allen's situation in Buffalo isn't a sure thing. Tyrod and vets like Shady, Wood, Incognito, and Kyle were the backbone of the team - 3 of those guys are gone and one is going to be done. Shady isn't going to get better with age either. Beane has done an excellent job clearing some cap space for the upcoming years, but a lot of talent was shipped out or let walk - they got to the playoffs last year, but that was a gift courtesy of the Bengals and we all know it. I think we all have a pretty good idea that we are looking at a step backwards because of the QB position and OL this year. An aging feature back, questionable WRs, and a shaky OL aren't exactly a perfect situation for a project QB or even a guy like McCarron to step into.

You're not seeing the parallels - they got rid of their decent, but not long-term starting QB (Fitz/Taylor) and then felt desperate to get their unproven, project QB. In both instances the decision could have been more measured and prudent without overreaching or giving up a lot of draft capital on a QB that is far from a sure thing, and has one of the biggest red flags that QBs can have - accuracy issues (both EJ and Allen were rated very low in that respect). If you want to argue about differences, you could make the case that Manuel had already hit his ceiling in college - he was who he was by the time his senior year came around. Allen seems to have a little more room to grow playing with more talent around him (but maybe not in front of him - the OL isn't looking too good right now). I hope that I am humbled and wrong - I want the guy to succeed now that he is a Bill, but I'm pretty confident that the Bills didn't get the best QB available to them in the past two drafts and that is how you've got to assess this draft - they moved back last year and gave up opportunities to move up this year - will Allen be better than Watson, Mahomes, Rosen and Jackson - that should be how this should be judged.

He also coached his own ass right out of the NFL here in Buffalo doing absolutely nothing with the Offense. This assessment is about as reliable as a meth head showing up for work.

That's because national people don't talk about guys that no one knows that well outside of Buffalo, and they try to justify their own boards comparing to the best case potential. They aren't going to go to the EJ Manuel and JP Losman comparisons because those names are associated with ****ty QB play that is very specific to Buffalo - they'd go with Jamarcus Russel, Ryan Leaf, etc. if they were going to talk about downside - and the media have talked about Josh Allen in that way as well.

Anyone got the odds on that one? I'm going with break - all in. Actually I'd even say it will be this draft in general, because this was the restock the cupboard draft after jettisoning lots of pretty talented players. Sure you needed to get a QB, but giving away even more assets to move up again? Come on man. That's blowing your load before you even get started.

I hope so too, but I think its delusional. Blaine Gabbert clone. The good news is that they may still be able to get Teddy Bridgewater if the Jets release him.

Great - he has good measurables, and is a good athlete that is only so so at playing QB. Sweet pick. Way to turn 6 picks in the first three rounds (2 in each) into Josh Allen, a pretty good looking, but inexperienced 19 yr old LB and a late 3rd round pick. I see that you did this draft right in Doug Whaley's honor.

Yet we see these NFL FOs operate every year and know that they really have no better clue than the avid fans of football and in the case of the Bills historically, that may be giving the FO way too much credit.

Me either - sometimes you just got to roll the dice and hope you don't get snake eyed.

You sure the guy wasn't trying to give you Rosin in exchange for a little "howya do"?

Yeah he can play when he is on the field but he continually gets in trouble and you know the NFL has no problem suspending players - he will likely spend a good deal of his career like Josh Gordon. Too bad for him, but now was the time to get your act together for a couple of months to make some money, maybe it isn’t that important to him, and maybe he wants to live it his way. I’ve got no problem with that, but it won’t help his career as a pro athlete.

I was astounded at how the Nix/Whaley Crew sat on their hands for many drafts and then pulled the trigger for a QB that had no business being picked any higher than the 3rd round, when they had so many better prospects available to them throughout the prior drafts at a bargain. I hear what you are saying about this class being good, but with your highest picks being 21 and 22 in the first round, and the No. 10 pick you traded away last year going to a team that picked a QB - that move is forever going to be how this year is judged. Mahomes/Watson versus whomever the Bills are able to land and what it cost. I'm just not sure they are going to be able to get the guy they may covet the most, even with everything that they've amassed and I think it is foolish to give up next year's 1st round pick since the QB position is basically going to be a three pony race among guys with less than 5 NFL starts and an OL that just lost or traded its Starting C, LG, and LT and the returning positions have been the weakest link on the OL for years - Dawkins will likely be fine, but the rest of the line is a Big ?. That kind of starting experience and OL turnover is a good formula for landing a top 10 pick in 2019. Don't get me wrong Tre White is a very good player and Mahomes and Watson may not actually pan out - it may be a good move after all, but if the Bills end up spending all of their draft capital that they amassed and the player they get is a lesser player than Mahomes or Watson, then the Bills FO is still a few steps behind the better teams and Beane/McDermott don't look so wise. Especially if they end up giving up a 1st in next year's draft and have a poor season with no first round pick and having jettisoned a lot of talent off the team in the short time they've been in Buffalo. Look I'm excited they finally snapped the drought, but I think it was a very fortunate and lucky season. Maybe McDermott is a special coach that can make it work with the right talent, not necessarily exceptional talent, but I do think that the culmination of the moves they made give them a very thin margin to be successful.

They also felt like they had a shot with Peterman in San Diego.

They gave up opportunities last year without costing a ton of draft capital. Instead they opted to load up for this draft. They put themselves here.

We shall see, but we won't really know until we see some live action.

Yeah its why not making a move until you know what is available is smart. Moving up to 5 today makes no sense if you it plays out that you are SoL on the guys you would've picked at QB that high. I think they make the move if it is possible on draft day for pick 6-11.

You can keep the guy and put yourself in a better position to take players when you see the opportunity and not bet the farm and hope you win. Water under the bridge, but I never said to settle for Tyrod. My point was that it makes a lot more sense to keep a decent QB until you are sure you have a better option. And giving up a decent starter at QB for a 3rd rounder isn't going to get you any closer to a better option.

Orton - not really. His year in Buffalo was a really a good year for Orton by his own standards. However, Tthe Offense under Tyrod was significantly better the year after Orton, Taylor had a better TD:Int Ratio, a better QB rating and the Offense produced more points per game. Fitz was too inconsistent, but probably in the same area code as Tyrod - his turnovers and inability to throw deep were too problematic. I'd rather have Tyrod, but I get what you are saying about both. Bledsoe was the benchmark I was referencing without looking up his last start - I did look it up and it was over a decade since his last year as a Bill was 2004 and we all know how that year ended - couldn't beat the backup Steelers.

Statistical production passing - possibly. Overall effectiveness I think Tyrod is a much better player, but we shall see since McCarron hasn't had a ton of opportunity. At this point of their respective careers Tyrod is a much better player than McCarron. I'm not saying that couldn't change with McCarron getting a little more experience, but chances are that McCarron is a downgrade at the Starting QB position from Tyrod. Tyrod's ability to be able to run and run plays that create headaches for defenses are something that McCarron won't be able to provide. He will have to be a significantly better passer and equally as good at limiting turnovers to be better than Tyrod.

Problem is that the biggest hole that has put them in desperation mode is by their own hand. How's that 3rd rounder for Tyrod looking right now? I'm not a Tyrod is the answer type guy, but he was a hell of a lot better than who they've had at QB for nearly a decade before him, and he would have allowed the team to operate with a margin for error. People like to think this regime is different than in the past, and I hope that they are right, but they just made a similar mistake they made before drafting EJ

I think the Bills will move up on draft day if they get an opportunity, but I think they are wise to see how things play out and if they can get a guy they want at 6 through 11 which won't cost nearly as much - then they'll try to move on it. I think standing pat is the best option if the cost is too high and Mayfield may drop into the 6-11 range because of concerns about his height and talent ceiling. Realistically though, it does seem like it is going to be a mad scramble and big run to start the draft with several QBs picks. You could see 5 go in the top 10 picks or less (Allen - Browns, Darnold - Giants, Rosen - Jets, Mayfield - Broncos, Jackson - Cardinals/Bills/Dolphins via Trade). BTW if I were the Browns I'd draft two of the top QBs and hold them for ransom, while also giving yourself a chance to put off your QB of the future decision a little longer. They'd also up the ante for any QB left over. The Browns would be silly to draft Barkley - if the Browns were on the cusp of being a real threat to get a Super Bowl, fine get your RB that is the final piece, but drafting a RB (which is the least durable position long term) with their team's talent level makes no sense. I thought the NFL was getting wise to not drafting RBs so high.

Yeah - I think that is why they can't trade next year's pick as part of a deal to move up. They are too precariously close to being a hot steaming pile of garbage on Offense with the three best players from the last couple of years on the OL gone, their starting QB gone, the two best receiving options in Benjamin and Clay aren't exactly on good wheels, and the other WR/TEs have not proven anything other than being also-ran, easily replaceable players. Giving away 1sts in a future draft is too dicey - the cost becomes greater the more you actually need the pick because your team isn't good. If we were talking about a team with an established core somewhere on the team, trading a future 1st is a little more understandable - but I just don't see how this team makes the playoffs this year barring a ridiculously good draft, and I don't see that if they have very few picks in the 1st three rounds. What kind of situation are you bringing this marquee QB prospect into if you keep on gutting the talent on the team and have no draft picks? Look a good QB cures some ills, but its got to be a workable situation with an OL that can provide some protect and there is a large need to properly develop the player with some talent. Providing good coaching and some good line play makes developing a QB a lot easier. This team exceeded expectations because of its turnover differential, playing respectable defense except for a stretch in the middle of the season, and an Offense that was somewhat capable and didn't make a lot of mistakes. The team has seen another seismic shift in talent leaving (Incognito, Wood, Glenn) and would likely be very happy to have the same mistake-free and efficient QB play this year with the guys they have. I just don't see it. This team is being gutted again so that Beane and McDermott can have it exactly their way and that is going to eventually be a problem, unless they are absolutely great in the draft and Free Agency, and that isn't exactly easy. Look I want to trust these guys, but I can't, they were very lucky last year and I think it goes to show just how bad the head coaching job was before McD (especially on the D side of things). Maybe long term it works out and they recreate it the way they see fit, but they are pretty purposefully taking a step back to do so and hoping that coaching and smart signings can make up the difference along the way. I think the Bills were a pretty talented team for the Rex years, and probably should have made the playoffs both years had Rex's D not been a complete disaster - they completely mismanaged the cap to get that talent and keep talent, but it was talented. The Bills finally got some good coaching on D and had an Offense that had familiarity playing together upfront with a decent QB last year = playoffs. Whaley's contracts have been an anchor on Beane to make hard decisions and get rid of guys they may have been better off keeping had they not been saddling the team with bad contracts. I know that it had a lot to do with Glenn and Taylor being traded. And I understand the need to eventually find a better QB. But I still don't get why you get rid of Tyrod, because of the stability, mentorship and consistency he would bring you at the most important position, and it wasn't that much to pay until you know you have something better. If the guys can't beat out Tyrod, then you keep on trying until you find one that does. People will be looking fondly on Tyrod's play if these QBs this year look like a bunch of clowns. I hope that's not the case, but the reality is that a rookie would be pretty impressive to play as well as Tyrod, and I just don't think McCarron or Peterman are even capable of that level of play. I think that the Browns got a great contingency plan in Tyrod, and it took a lot of pressure off of them to make a deal with another team desperate for a QB, including the Bills - which may result in the Browns getting that damned pick back plus a lot more. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Browns shop that No. 1 pick on draft day after posturing that they want it and want to draft Allen - I mean that would be a insanely stupid No.1 overall pick anyhow. The NFL is a QB driven league, but only the Bills get rid of a decent guy before they have a replacement that is as good or better. At least the Chiefs were smart enough to see what Mahomes was all about for a year before trading Smith (I'm not sure it was a wise move, but it makes a lot more sense than what the Bills did).

They put themselves in this pickle, like they’ve done before so I do get irritated with the thought of them giving up all of these draft assets that they acquired by getting rid of good players, and the talent deficit they created - just to gamble on a QB prospect that they “need” because they traded away a guy that was a capable starter. I’m not trying to call Tyrod the answer, but having him gives you the ability to be patient in both the draft and development of your eventual replacement. Now they’ve got two guys with little game experience at QB and a third that’s about to be in the mix - chances are, the deficiencies on the OL and at WR are going to be more pronounced with such inexperience, and DaBoll isn’t some unknown potential NFL genius that will be able to coach the hell out of the Offense (his NFL experience isn’t exactly exciting anyone with reasonable expectations). They’ve got to get an infusion of talent upfront on the OL, and hope that Dawkins keeps on progressing, because they just doubled down on it to move up in the draft. I feel like they need to move up more only if the deal is good and it becomes clear that they may miss out entirely on the top 5 prospects at QB, but again didn’t they create this dire need? They appear desperate because they now are desperate. It would be really sad if we trade up with the Browns and end up giving them back their 3rd and other high picks because they need a guy to replace the guy they traded. If he doesn’t exceed Tyrod, which is very possible, it makes the Browns look like they got over on you...that’s not a good look. That’s Buddy Nix territory on management of the QB position.

NFL and NBA personnel people constantly make the mistake of drafting players way too high based on physical traits without much evidence of actual elite ability to play the respective sport at consistently high level. It's really weird because if you look at what everyone is saying at the end of the college football season and what they say now, it is like people spend several months talking themselves into players way higher than they should be. It happens every year. Josh Allen reminds me of the ascent of Blaine Gabbert, where these football execs get really juiced up about these workouts and combine measurements and overlook the red flags about actual ability to be excellent playing the game.

If you watched EJ Manuel in college you knew he wasn't a great passer and it was a very close to pro system he played in. He often made wide open guys have to adjust to poorly thrown balls, and actually left a lot of plays on the field because of his inconsistent passing and inaccuracy. He could string together some plays, but he would really struggle at other times. He never really passed with any rhythm, and he was really a disappointment to many Noles fans that saw his problems frequently crop up in the biggest games. I can remember my utter disbelief when he was drafted in the first round. People I know who are FSU Grads and alumni were all calling me up and laughing their asses off at how dumb that pick was. That was a peach of a pick - Nix/Whaley combo didn't know what a good QB prospect looked like. It took Rex freaking Ryan to actually help out to get a decent guy on the roster.