Ayjent

You may be able to find the stats somewhere, but my guess is that the WR has one of the highest bust rates among 1st round picks. There are a ton of factors that go into it, but teams really focus on combine athleticism and catching radius when it comes to that position rather than more intangible things like blocking, situational awareness (knowing the defenses as well as the QB and being on the same page with the QB), and route running. Sure they get an idea at the combine about route running, but teams are really bad at assessing the position league wide. Some of the busting has to do with poor player development and bad fits as well - the same is even more true for QBs. In the latter example that is more on the team and there is a possibility for a career revival with a change of scenery - that's why you can't always write off players who bust.

To those who think he is like Foster...nope. I didn’t think he was a first rounder when he got drafted a few years back, but he had a good last year in college and performed pretty well during his college career, unlike Foster. He’s the type of guy that could do well, but isn’t going to be anything more than a Wr3 or wr4. Can’t hurt to add some talent to the roster, but WR doesn’t mean much when you have no OL to provide consistent protection.

No dispute about that from me. Unfortunately we always seem to have the pendulum swing too far in the other direction when the team makes changes. I think we may see the same thing unfolding again - they have gutted this team too much to have any consistency and now they better be damn good at talent evaluation or this team isn’t going anywhere. You can cut and replace with many positions, but dropping your talent level at QB and OL will hurt you bad for a long time unless you hit on your replacements and that is where many GMs and FOs have tried this route and failed because they couldn’t get it all to work out with the right pieces at the same time. Odds are not in their favor, but maybe they got it right. I just have a hard time seeing how going with guys that have less than 10 starts combined is better than keeping around a QB that may not be great, but provides stability and continuity to the most important position in the sport. I said the same thing with Fitz and it’s not because I particularly thought he or Tyrod were great (Tyrod is better btw), but they are guys that can play decent QB and it’s better to keep them until you know you can bench them for the better option you’ve added to the roster. It signals to the team that you are keeping the path while trying to improve. When you make the playoffs and then hit reset at QB with the only returning QB being a 5th round draft pick from the year before with one of the worst halves of QB play in NFL history and having full knowledge of the losses on the OL that would plague you if not adequately addressed (but still ignored) - what exactly is the expectation? It’s like saying hey we know this looks bad, but we’re really awesome at this, just trust us. Some are willing to trust and some are skeptical. Let’s put it this way - I’ll trust someone who shows me they know what they are doing and I’m not willing to trust this process quite yet.

Yes this was what was wrong with Whaley - he wasn't good either. But there was a talented enough team to win and make the playoffs, just not a talented enough HC or Defensive Coaching Staff. He was pretty good with scouting pros on other teams, just not very good with draft prospects and was in some weird twilight zone position with seemingly limited power (and probably rightfully so). The Offensive unit that was put together under Rex was actually surprisingly effective and not too bad - the problem was that the Defense went from good to crap with bad schemes and bad coaching. But I agree the team was not built to sustain in the long term and eventually this day would come - although I really have to disagree with getting rid of a guy like Tyrod until you have something better for sure. Tyrod is a starter level QB in the NFL and you don't need to run him out of town to get a better guy - you just have to get other guys on the roster that prove that they are better and your worst case scenario at QB is a guy that can play mobile, game manager as a baseline. Now both sides of the ball look shaky cakes on the lines and that's not a good recipe for winning in the NFL. .

Coaching is a huge deal on the OL because it is about playing as a unit and knowing each others assignments, strengths and weaknesses. What we are seeing is the anchor that held this OL together retired (Wood) and now they are relying more heavily on the coaching and trying to find their way as a unit. Problem is that I don't think they have a good enough coach to make up for the lack of talent and leadership to bridge the gap. I think you saw the starting lineup yesterday and they will give them a game or two before they change it up. There is no way that they can put Allen behind that line to start his career if they want to bring along with confidence. The game is faster already, add guys coming from all angles with no time in the pocket and it's going to be frantic. You could see the Bills giving up over 100 sacks easily with Allen back there (if he could withstand the beating) - not that he has been bad, but he's a rookie that needs a little more time in the pocket and there is no question that someone trying to correct some deficiencies in his footwork will regress if not given some stability where he can actually set his feet.

I agree. It's not all bad, just like Whaley wasn't all bad - but there are highly questionable moves that will bear out during the next few seasons. I think the team made a huge mistake trading Taylor away (who could actually still make things happen with the toilet paper line in front of him) - he was professional in his approach to preparation and leadership, he could have been a good mentor and yes you want him to try to beat out the other (competition is good at QB - if Allen or Peterman could supplant Tyrod then so be it). However, when they started Peterman in LA last year, you knew that Tyrod was toast on this team - and I still think the issue leading up to that was that the Interior OL was not playing well at all in the two games before LA. That's one of the two issues I really have the biggest problem with at the moment. Second is having no foresight on the OL - regardless of whether both Wood and Incognito were somewhat abrupt ends to their time in Buffalo - they were both near the end of their career anyhow and the right side was weak all last year. They did very little to shore up the OL beyond garage sale specials. Dawkins looks like he was a good pick, but having Ducasse next to him is going to be a lot different than having Incognito and Wood to his interior. Again, what does a QB matter when your line looks like it couldn't stop even lower tier DL players in the NFL. They should go ahead and call Peterman the starter while McCarron recovers and maybe McCarron will be a bit healthier by the time Peterman gets injured. As for Glenn and Dareus - those were the right moves - bad contracts and I don't think either player will ever regain their prior forms that led to their contracts (albeit for different reasons). Watkins was also a good trade - there was no way he would stay in Buffalo after last year anyhow. Another good move. However, these were three cornerstone players, but just not dependable players. I'm fine with those moves. They went out and got KB - who is probably a better fit for this team and was a need after Woods left and Jordan Matthews showed that his injuries may be putting an end to his career.

Well the defense Rex installed was a joke that took a top notch unit and made them mediocre at their best. His saving grace was the Offense, and Whaley getting himTaylor, Incognito, and McCoy. If the defense would’ve been a tad better they probably make the playoffs both years. I was no Whaley fan, but he gave Rex everything he needed to succeed and piss poor coaching is why Rex won’t coach in the NFL as a coordinator or head coach ever again, unless a team is just run by a bunch of fools. The silver lining of Rex’s tenure was that they built a decent offense and found a pretty serviceable game managing QB that won’t make many mistakes and can extend plays and drives with his ability to move. This GM has been tearing that up since he got here and it is now at about ground zero - let’s see what he constructs, but he didn’t have to tear down the foundation to rebuild the house - sure it may have been cheaper to just tear it all down, but it’s going to get expensive again if you hit on the right picks and just damning if you don’t hit on enough in quick succession (see Sabres).

Yeah they had to get rid of some bad contracts, no question. But...they didn’t have to hit the reset button - they have some hubris about them, and they‘ll get a mulligan from fans if this is a brutal season. Look they blew their load on their top two picks that could’ve been used to round out the roster and fill some holes. Even if you buy into the need to splurge on a QB, fine, but why on a 20 yr old LB - when your OL is a complete mess and you need to protect that huge investment you just made? So does Allen get to develop with rookie OL players being inserted each year over the next few years with Castillo coaching? Great plan (sarcasm).

That’s what any decent coach would’ve done with the roster while Rex was coach, even with the Whaley roster. Now I think we a lot of people paying attention knew that there was an impending blow up coming with that roster with the bad contracts and win now, screw the long term strategy of Whaley. I think they got a guy in McDermott that capitalized on the remnants of that roster that hadn’t been churned yet and they made a couple of really good pick ups with Hyde and Poyer and got decent value for Watkins. The core starters of the Offense was still intact for the most part at QB, OL and RB - so they were capable last year, but not spectacular by any means on Offense. This offseason they blew up the Offense with shipping out Glenn and Tyrod for picks that roughly equated to unproven highly regarded talent at LB and QB and wood and Incognito retired, and their star on Offense is a RB who probably doesn’t have a lot left in the tank beyond this season. Now this a roster that Beane owns more than ever and I think the lack of foresight on the OL and importance of keeping a proven guy at QB while you develop a top prospect is going to rear it’s head as major miscalculations, especially with Castillo as OL coach. I really don’t understand the philosophy of what they are doing on Offense in an Offense driven league - unproven and underperforming talent at too many key positions is a risky way of trying to build a team and install a new offense - sure it could work, but it’s not what I’d call measured or wise.

I will give McDermott a lot of credit for the 9-7 record, but here are a couple of things about that record: Tyrod was the QB and he limited turnovers which helped the Turnover Differential a lot - the defense was very opportunistic - chances are that the current roster of QBs and the defense are not going to keep that differential where it was (these things have a tendency to even out) After trading Dareus there was a dropoff defensively against the run and the team was in a 3 game tail spin for various reasons, but it coincided with the Dareus trade The coaching on the OL was very problematic in that 3 game tail spin and as much as people want to blame the QB, the interior line was really to blame for the Offensive problems - moreover, the OL lost its best two remaining players after the Glenn trade - Dawkins is now the best player on the line, and Beane didn't do much to address these positions outside of Bodine and a couple of UDFAs. Yes Dennison was quickly canned, but I still think the loyalty to Castillo based on their long history of coaching together is given too much of a pass - we shall see. To me this is the biggest problem the Bills have and nothing works well Offensively without a decent line with decent coaching - I'm not sure that they have either with Wood, Glenn and Incognito gone and Castillo as coach with the Bills wasn't good last year. Maybe Castillo is on a short leash this year - I don't know, but I saw a significant drop off and I'm not sure how much of that had to do with Dennison. I wasn't a big fan of them drafting Allen - but he has looked decent so I'm cautiously optimistic. I thought that they had a real shot in the draft of addressing many, many positions with all of their picks and thought that they should have kept Tyrod or gone after Bridgewater as the bridge QB - instead they used a lot of what they had amassed to move up to get Allen - so yeah they couldn't address everything they would have liked to because they made one gaping hole that they had to fill with a high risk and high cost (and I get it to some degree - they didn't see Tyrod as the long term guy, but they hit a hard reset rather than a smooth transition - and there is a possibility it may come up snake eyes). Again, it may all work out in the long term- but I'm not that optimistic about this season because of the OL and the inexperience at QB. I agree that they have a more measured plan now and I don't discount that they are getting rid of talented guys that have value around the league but don't necessarily fit that well with their plan or are just too expensive for what they provide to the team. One thing seems better though - the cohesiveness of the plan and the head coach seems to garner respect from the team as opposed to the last two coaches which I think had their issues and the former GM that really didn't seem to have any idea beyond win now regardless of the longterm costs.

Last year was nice, but I'm still in the wait and see mode with the GM and coach. They've done a lot of things I don't really understand: they put the team in a bit of a talent deficit getting rid of guys like Glenn, Tyrod, Watkins, Dareus and letting other guys move on they amassed a lot of draft picks but then used a lot of them to move up for Allen they haven't addressed the OL enough and I don't understand why they think Juan Castillo is a good OL coach. Last year was the honeymoon, now its time to see if the marriage is worthwhile.

Gruden does like big receivers and Benjamin could be traded (although very doubtful there are many teams interested bc he has only one year left on current contract) - not even close to get Mack either, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Benjamin were moved. If he didn’t like playing Cam I doubt he is very stoked with this offense and McCarron, Peterman and a rookie that isn’t ready at QB.

I think the sports writers would just be better off doing things like grouping the teams based on their playoff and championship potential. The actual record predictions are just silly like Howard and Jeremy going through the schedule every week following a win or loss.

To me the jury is still out on the staff and GM - they've made a lot of bold moves getting rid of some pretty talented players. Was I impressed by last year? In a lot of ways I was, because they made the playoffs. I can't dispute that pretty damn good accomplishment considering the OC and OL coach being pretty bad at their jobs. I think people think Tyrod is disposable, because he's not a superstar caliber QB and he's not the type of guy that is going to just light it up in the passing game. I think we are going to see just how good steady and unspectacular with an ability to make a couple of plays in the running game to extend drives is compared to plain old backup caliber QB play with very limited ability to run. I honestly don't know how some people think someone like McCarron or Peterman can be a wash with Tyrod. Tyrod didn't really turn the ball over and he made enough plays in many games to help the Bills stay ahead or stay in games. Believe me I know the Bills could do better at QB than Tyrod, but at this point they are not better at QB, they are worse. Maybe Allen develops into a guy that can play pretty well by next year, but hoping for McCarron or Peterman to do as well or better than Tyrod is a longshot. And Allen is no sure thing, either. I didn't like him as the QB pick, but now I'm hoping he proves himself to be a superstar. Most likely we are going to see a lot more turnovers out of the QB position, a lot more stalled drives, very few broken plays turned into first downs - but hey we will have guys that can deliver an accurate timing pass a little more often = wash!!!! I thought that they should've held on to Tyrod until the Bills had a chance to assess their QB of the future and let him compete with a guy that was a very professional QB in terms of work ethic and leadership. To me QBs are like jobs, if you have a decent one you don't abandon it until you are sure you have a better offer available. You don't quit a good job to go to a start up that may or may not get off the ground, and drive for Uber to pay the Bills until it does.

I wasn’t saying to change the draft plan for a QB. I was just saying they should’ve kept Taylor and drafted a QB, because the third round pick and money saved is going to lead to a lot more Ls than had they kept Tyrod with Allen and Peterman continuing to learn.

I think you are underselling Tyrod and overselling Allen. Actually, they may be more similar in terms of timing and anticipation on throws than we all may like. The difference being Tyrod wouldn’t throw a bad out route late, and that was one of Allen’s most troubling bad habits in college. I know the Bills got a 3rd round pick and saved salary, but I still think having Tyrod was a better plan than 3 inexperienced guys and a lack of continuity from the playoff run. I don’t think AJ McCarron is the same caliber QB and lacks the all around ability of Tyrod. I just don’t understand getting rid of a serviceable starter until someone unseats him because of undeniable talent. The Bills have done this before, and it didn’t work out. I understand different players, different coaches and different FO. But same error - the team is likely to take a big step backwards this year and it will be because of the offense.

I don't think anyone is going to look particularly good coaching this Offense this year. I just don't think 3 guys at QB with such little experience and an OL that just saw the best interior linemen retire and a proven LT get traded (Dawkins I think will be suitable as a replacement, but its an assumption that he will maintain his play from last year, but the results may get better or worse) will be able to be very good or consistent. And we don't know how the FAs will fit in to the line. We shall see, but the OL coaching last year was suspect to begin with.

Well he benched more than Tremaine Edmunds and he was a hell of a player on the field for UCF. I get why people wouldn’t initially want a guy with one bad limb. But the guy is very very instinctive and plays better than most with two good arms.

Even assuming you put your criteria as 1st rounder in January - he was still viewed as the 5th best prospect here - https://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2018/1/1/16817080/2018-nfl-mock-draft-browns-josh-rosen-baker-mayfield and here - https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2018-nfl-mock-draft-josh-rosen-to-broncos-colts-grab-saquon-barkley/ and here - https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/draft/2018/01/03/2018-nfl-mock-draft-first-round-sam-darnold-josh-rosen/997200001/ I was going off memory, but it was pretty clear that aside from a couple of people enamored with potential rather than demonstrated ability - he wasn't viewed as anything but the 4th or 5th best prospect in the Lamar Jackson and Rudolph area code.

Who had him first? He was the third QB selected. Yes it is highly debateable the Browns and Jets FO know what it takes to win, but the Bills are in that same area code. In January he wasn’t even viewed as a 1st round pick by most draft “gurus”. I hope you are right, but I see him as a guy that rose significantly in the build up to the draft. These guys that rise like this at QB rarely pan out. https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/1/26/16932920/josh-allen-wyoming-quarterback-hype-nfl-draft

You’re right No. 22 was KCs pick. You still have to keep that KC trade part of the equation because it factors into the maneuvers they made and why. You could expand it to show all of the capital that went into three guys. If they hit home runs they are geniuses, but anything less is going to be painful, especially if any one of these guys turn out to be a franchise QB: Rosen, Jackson, Watson or Mahomes. Tre White + Tre Edmunds + Josh Allen, picks 154 + 255 = pick 10 (2017), picks 12, 21, 22, 53, 56, and 65, Cordy Glenn and Sammy Watkins

You can look at it this way 2017: Draft pick 10 + Sammy Watkins = Tre White, EJ Gaines + 2018 (picks 21 + 56) 2018: Draft picks 12, 21, 53 and 56 + Cordy Glenn = pick 7 Net Result: Josh Allen + Tre White = pick 10 (2017), picks 12, 21, 53, 56, Cordy Glenn and Sammy Watkins I know why they traded Glenn and Watkins, just pointing out the cost. Never liked the Watkins pick but if you put his draft capital cost into the equation it gets even uglier.

Yeah that’s a good summary of the problem with the two 1st round picks, no room for error, and less players to save your ass if you screw one up. Ah the good ol’ players that can make plays playing football. I’m glad that is what they are looking for. In other news employers are looking for employees that can work.

Dude I’m losing no sleep over a silly game played that I watch on TV as a distraction for a couple of hours. Whining? Okay. I watch a lot of football because I enjoy the strategy of the game and you can easily spot good players in college if you just pay attention. They did a lot of maneuvering with draft picks but to me it looks like they made a lot of moves and passed up a lot of players to get extra picks and then undid all of that to get two boom or bust prospects. Just looks like they made bad moves and I’m pointing it out. I may be wrong, and I hope I am, but it’s just what I see. We’ll see what I know, but I’ll gladly praise Beane if he got it right. I doubt he did, though. Also they didn’t need to jump anyone to get Edmunds most likely, no one else was looking for a LB ahead them. And he’s a bit of a risky prospect because of his youth - the history of NFL players drafted that young isn’t great. Could be a really good pick, but still a risky one. I didnt mind them moving up for the QB pick, and I figured Tampa made sense as an NFC team that didn’t need a QB. Didn’t want Allen to be the pick though. He wasn’t impressive on the field and there isn’t much else to discuss about him other than some hope in his potential - because there isn’t much of a history of consistent good play from him. Rosen had his flags as well, but is a much better passer and I thought that was what the team needed. Not another inconsistent, inaccurate athlete.

On the positive side - this 19 yr old kid looks like he could be really awesome with good health and good coaching.