Ayjent

They have an identity on D and that is going to be the face of the team, but the Offense is going to be making people pay attention more if and when they beat some better competition. But as to the competition - the Jets and Giants may very well end up being 2 of the worst teams in the league by the end of the season. However, early on you are getting teams best efforts before the wheels start coming off the wagon. This is the overreaction time in the NFL in recent years. It's almost unbearable to watch some people on TV talking about this and that team. Sure, the Dolphins ship looked sunk before it set sail, but the other 31 teams were looking to prove something and will continue to as they press on more games. Certainly some things look shaky in place right now. Remember last year though, people were writing the Bills off as an 0-16 possibility after a highly embarassing start to 2018. Things change and can be fluid - and the NFL is a showcase of coaching, chemistry and talent - as chemistry builds it can really create a gap between teams, and chemistry can also fall apart bringing teams back to the pack. That means the Bills can continue to build momentum through chemistry with so much young talent, and that starts at QB on Offense. I genuinely have turned the corner and see how completely wrong I was about Allen. I'm not saying he has completely arrived, but man I thought he would be frustrating to watch, especially with his first few games last year. This year he has the look of taking another step forward and the Bills team will follow if that happens. Looking back at last year - as embarassing as it was early on, the QB situation turned out fortuitous for the Bills in the way it played out: Peterman is so bad they have to bench him and look elsewhere for QBs to keep on the active roster; Allen is starting early than the staff wanted - he gets to play with some ups and downs, but has a good showing against the Vikings; then he is hurt; he gets to watch a couple of other guys come in and play that have been in the NFL for awhile;- the Bills find a really decent backup; Allen comes in and starts making things happen and getting the team behind him. It wasn't planned that way, but it all kinda worked out and Allen has made the most of his circumstances so far.

Bottom Line win. Some stuff to get excited about, some to be concerned about. However, division road game victory is a big win regardless of the projected record of the opponent. They are the biggest and toughest games - so to see the Bills win the way they did was a big deal. Good teams find a way to win. They found a way to win.

Well with the Bills home games against the Pats...those things are endzone "decorations" when the Pats score. Maybe the funniest tradition in current sports. And one that begs a lot of questions.

That's pretty much what I saw. I think Jones was too late to get his head around and it made it look like a worse pass than it was - although he was blanketed and not necessarily the best decision to throw there. I think this is a consistent thing with Jones - he is just not good enough at getting his head around, adjusting his body and winning balls. He's fine with space and time, but the NFL doesn't afford much of either. I think the throw to Beasley that was incomplete was a little too early or Beasley didn't think it would be out that fast - can't really tell, but I'm sure they will work that out - they seem to be pretty much on the same page. The play calling was not great, but as you mention they totally changed up the game plan from the first two weeks focusing more on the run game, which when you put yourself into obvious passing downs is not ideal for getting in rhythm passing when the only time you throw is when you have to. I'm hoping the Bills are more open in their actual playcalling during the regular season - I think it benefits Allen to be afforded a chance to miss a throw, as it does most QBs. The running game will be even more opened up if they can pass effectively and give shady the space he needs to do what he does best. The INT was a bad throw - and one that he knew he shouldn't have thrown

Bill Barnwell writes the driest articles and states bull#### premises like there is no such thing as momentum in sports. That premise is supported by no one that has ever played competitive sports at a decent level. Momentum is one of the realest things in sports, e.g., watch any basketball game or the Bills Oilers playoff game. He lost me when I read that article years ago and I haven’t been able to do more than skim his meandering articles since. Stats should support the context of the situation and are not that useful to drive the analysis. Stats have usefulness, but they are not great predictors in football because of the massive amounts of nonquantifiable factors (coaching, game planning, play calling, missed assignments, etc.).

He’s worth the risk. One of the best TEs in the league.

Zay will be solid, but not spectacular at best and he hasn't been that yet. He showed a couple of games where he could be a reliable target, but the difference between marginal NFL talent and good talent is consistency, not flashes. I'm still not sold on him, but he did progress last year, and if he takes another step forward he is definitely a guy that could be a solid NFL player. I think he is going to have to be better to get snaps, but the talk of him being a No. 1 in some of the articles seems misguided and overly optimistic. The guy who was emerging as a No. 1 was Foster, but he still needs to show a lot more to win that title as well. The guys they have a WR are okay, but there are no sure things as a bona fide No. 1 target who will get over 1000 yards. The Bills may just have a collection of No. 2 through 4 options that start at any given time. That's better than last year, but it's not a massive improvement unless Foster or Jones take big steps forward.

I agree stats are just the details of how you got your result, not really whether you played well. However, certain stats can be predictive of success if they are steady, but not the common stats that are usually available (yardage, QB rating), but more contextual stats. For instance first down % (of all plays), first downs per drive, drive to goal line ratio (average drive length (yards)/average field position (yards to goal)) , and scoring range opportunities/% (i.e., plays/drive conversion % inside 35 yds) - if these numbers are good, then you have an effective offense - how you get those stats doesn't really matter. So if a QB is only in the mid-50s in completion percentage that doesn't matter if the first down% is high for the offense - that's why Allen was effective when he came back from injury last year - the offense was moving the chains and the ball even with his completion percentage being low. If you have a lot of plays and a high conversion % inside the opponents 35 yard line you are likely dominating a game. If you are near 50% in the drive to goal line ratio, the Offense is extremely effective at moving the ball and changing field position.

Yeah he misses tackles, and if you watch closely all LBs do. Im a Florida alum and watched him his entire career. I thought him and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson were their best defensive players on a consistent basis this past year. Polite was really good but would disappear sometimes. I really think he is a perfect situational OLB that could be sent to blitz (especially blindside) or cover TEs this year and could step in for Milano really well if there is an injury. He has a lot of instinct and big play ability, and plays his best in big situations. Does he make mistakes and is he in need of work? No doubt, but he will be a guy you want on the field when it matters.

Stop reading the reports and watch the LSU highlights - he wrecked them this year and had no problem tackling. This is a really solid pick, especially for the 5th round

I watched Joseph a lot. For whatever inconsistencies he may have shown at Florida, he more than made up for with a lot of big plays in big moments. He's very versatile and is a good blitzing LB. Really he was best when the set him loose to just attack the LOS without have to read and react. The scouting on him wasn't great, but I feel like it was way too harsh considering how much of a difference maker he was for the gators.

If he drops into the third round it would be surprising.

For the entire draft I'd like to see the focus on Offense, almost entirely, but that doesn't necessarily mean I think that they should go Offense with the first pick. The way I look at it is that the best OL and WR prospects available at 9 arent enough value for their draft position. I think Hockenson at No. 9 is too high, but that would be the only offensive player to consider at 9 in my opinion because I think Josh Allen could really benefit from a solid TE that is damn good in both the run and pass game. Best Option - Attempt to trade Down in first round. Depending on the partner and position you trade into (No. 15 with Washington is a good target because I think the value of additional picks for moving down to a position where you can take advantage of a player that slipped down to you) you take the best available: 1.a coveted DT/DE ends up being available still then you take the DL player 2. Hockenson/Devin Bush if they move into the late 1st 3. Best OL player remaining on the board. I'm just not sold on any WR in this class being worth a 1st round pick. I'd be pissed if the picked Jonah Williams at 9, but less upset if they picked him late in the first and moved him inside (I feel the same way about Jawaan Taylor - although I think Taylor is probably a better prospect for Tackle than Williams in the NFL, but both would probably do better on the interior). I don't think he is an NFL LT and would struggle with NFL caliber Edge rushers. Assuming they pick up at least another 2nd rounder in the trade - if somehow someone like Devin Bush is available that is the easy pick - they put him in the middle with Edmunds and Milano outside (that would be a solid LB crew). they pick up another OL prospect in the 2nd, and I think it would be smart if they picked two OL in the 2nd if they didn't pick up any in the first. I think a gadget/utility player that they could use as a RB/WR/QB/TE is Jalen Hurd in the late 4th/early 5th would be a good pickup - he is a very good athlete and a creative OC would love to have a weapon like him, and the Bills are a little dry on offensive weapons. This is a Five Star HS player and was a really good player at Tennessee at RB. He is way undervalued in the draft. They could move him around a lot to create mismatches - Good late round RB options - Devine Ozigbo or Jordan Scarlett Option B - If no trade partner or not a good enough deal they stay and draft: 1. best available DT/DE - I like Clelin Ferrel and think he would be the type of pass rusher they need, but there are a lot of guys to choose from on the DL. I don't really like the idea of Defense first, but that is what this draft features as the marquee players. There is a chance Ed Oliver may be available still too. 2. Hockenson a little too early but as I said I think a TE may be way more valuable than a high pick WR to Josh Allen's development. They roll him out so much that having a good TE target makes the most sense in improving the passing option around him.

Agreed. To me I think both Jonah Williams and Taylor would be average tackles and better inside.

Jawaan Taylor and Jonah Williams both probably will do better as interior linemen than tackles, but for different reasons. Williams would likely be the better pick because he may be a better interior player, but neither are first rounder talent in my opinion. It doesn’t mean that they won’t be drafted that high but if the Bills took either guy in the second it would be a solid pick and I’m saying that when I think that OL should be their number 1 priority. I don’t see an elite OL player in this draft. So maybe the Bills truly would be better taking draft capital from trading down with a team willing to move up.

They could easily upgrade 4 starters from LG to RT. Dawkins is the best of the bunch, but it's not like they can't improve there either.

They can find a good RB mid to late round. I like Devine Ozigbo from Nebraska good size and vision. Hits holes quickly and follows blocks well, and has decent on field speed.

What’s the reward of doing that work? Seriously?! I spent time responding, that was enough of a waste of time as you alluded to. An opinion supported by stats is still just an opinion..may be well founded.. may be cherry picked horsesh!t. I said why I think he’s better and where I’d look if I were going to back up my argument statistically. So take it how you will.

I can and would if it was worth my time...my time is simply worth more than that. Mocked by people who can’t see the massive waste of effort in trying to cherry pick stats or justify their bias with articles? I’ve stood behind why I’ve changed my opinion on Josh and I’ll stand behind what I’ve said and seen. Can I look up a bunch of stats or go through play by play to demonstrate where excels compared to Darnold and Rosen? I can and capably. Do I want to? Not really. I’d rather help others with real struggles in life, make music, spend time with family, watch a movie, etc. For instance, Darnold and Rosen under pressure may have better passing stats but Allen has more big plays if you count ground yards and has extended plays much better when facing pressure - I know that will bear out statistically, but those aren’t easy stats to come about.

Look I’m not going to break down the statistics, or look them up because I’m sure I can find them to support what I’m saying with respect Allen being better compared to Darnold and Rosen. Do I think Allen is perfect? Not even close, and he has a long way to go to be a long term starter. I see a guy with the physical tools, which no one doubted, but I’ve also seen him making a ton of progress on things that looked pretty bad at the start of the season (e.g., questionable pocket presence that has gotten better, knowing where to go with the ball more frequently, extending plays) and how he is displaying leadership and the team around him has responded. He doesn’t played scared and the game doesn’t seem too big. His passing stats aren’t that impressive, but he is pushing the ball downfield and making some back shoulder throws that are well placed just not completed. Ive watched Darnold and Rosen and I just don’t see the same level of talent and I would’ve been happier with either guy over Allen when the draft occurred - I see guys that are hitting the easier plays more consistently with them but I don’t see a whole lot of growth potential and I wonder if those two have a whole lot more to offer in the progression of their level of play. And there is a valid concern Allen may always be this way too - elite physical talent that just never reaches the ultimate potential. But the leadership, ballsiness, progress and physical talent make me a lot more comfortable about Allen than the story PFF statistics tell. I liked Tyrod, but the stats always said he was a better QB than he was, because he didn’t turn it over and had a pretty good completion percentage - Bill Barnwell always liked him because of his stats. But we all knew the Bills needed to try to upgrade - I don’t think they needed to get rid of him because they had no known commodity at the position, but I digress. Allen after coming back seemed way more comfortable and in control of the offense and seemed to be making the right play most of the time, except for trying to make too much happen on occasion. As for the the red zone. The most effective red zone offense has been Allen running, and that is a big part of the story. I think that’s a dangerous way to play your starting QB, but his running ability is simply the most effective red zone weapon. The other part of the story is a poor screen game, no real running ability with the RBs, and inconsistent receiving targets that aren’t really good at making plays in tight areas of the field - the Bills have had a lot of end zone drops and very few nice catches in the end zone. Allen may be missing targets there, but whose the playmaker he should go to? I’m not sure about Daboll either.

PFF and other stat based analyses still haven’t figured out a good qualitative measure of QB play. Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn’t, but they tend to be too focused on their methodology and measures explaining quality of play rather than the quality of play being supported by stats. I’ve seen enough from him to know that he has a legit shot at being a really good QB, and I’m not one who liked Allen and I’m not one to be easy on the Bills’ decision making at that position. Allen has had poor protection in many games, no running game to balance the offense in many games, and skill position players who haven’t elevated their games (with the exception of Foster). He looks far more capable than Rosen or Darnold, but he really does need to look for the easier play than the big play and know when to take chances for the big play rather than the safe play. He’s not a roller coaster of inconsistency like EJ and he isn’t a limited passer like Tyrod. However, he doesn’t get into a rhythm as a passer and that is something I want to see him do at some point soon. I understand that the limited talent around him makes that difficult.

I’ve seen kickers with much better effort at tackling

I think that covers it. I think Rosen being worse at making plays is the difference between the two offenses and how bad the line looks. Allen is more mobile and able to extend plays and drives because of it. There is no question he is getting immediate pressure more than any QB in the league, and despite the line play he is showing progress and understanding of the game as the season goes on. I need to see more, but his reads are getting better and his running is the product of understanding what he sees for the taking. i think the Bills have more talent on the OL starting than the Cardinals, but the OL coaching is subpar for the Bills and the talent difference isn’t much. Outside of Dawkins who looks pretty average, the Bills OL is basically backup caliber on most teams that starts for the Bills.

I didn't like the Allen draft pick. I didn't like what they spent on getting him and I didn't think he was the right guy. Right now I'm starting to feel a lot better about what they did. The Mahomes thing will always haunt the Bills, but Allen is progressing and is looking a lot better. His mobility is outstanding, and he is starting to sense the pressure and the outlets when it comes, although he is bailing on the pocket sometimes. His throws have been better too, but he still isn't getting into a rhythm passing. His two last throws in the Dolphins game were both good difficult throws, and I think the Bills should've gotten the benefit of a PI call on Zay, but the ref awarded the catch and that was overturned. I think this happens sometimes - refs award one or the other, but not both because of the closeness of the call either way - I think it may have gotten a PI call if it was clearly incomplete. Still a very good back shoulder throw that if he can continue to improve on as a go to throw - he will have a much better passing repertoire. As for the Clay throw - no one is totally 100% culpable but Clay had a ton of time to adjust to a ball that traveled a really good distance - Clay didn't have to move much by NFL receiving target standards (that is an understatement). Could Allen have put it on the money so that Clay didn't have to move hardly at all? Sure. Could Clay have made a better adjustment on the ball? Definitely and if he had he could have easily caught the ball and did a Nestea plunge or any other overdramatic time consuming theatrics to score. He seems to be working on adding to his skill set and the progress is encouraging. Allen would have better numbers if the receivers were more sure handed or better - there is no question about that. They've got to get better there and Beane/McDermott have already churned and burned two of their biggest acquisitions at the position, and their highest draft pick at the position is playing well, but does not appear to be a No. 1. Certainly a starter, but not a guy that is a marquee WR or even close to a No. 1. I've got to say that I think having different receivers on the field is making an overall difference for the Offense as well - the passing game has simply looked better without Kelvin Benjamin on the field as much, and you know the players and coaches were sensing that as well. He simply didn't want to be effective and fight enough for position on tight coverage throws, which is the only thing that made him a good target - we saw him play next level against Carolina in the preseason and unfortunately for him that set a bar for his skills that he never even cam close to again during this season. I think he's done in this league, despite likely getting a few more chances. Finally, the Offense around Allen is barren and aging - Clay, McCoy and Ivory have their best days behind them. They need young legs at RB and TE to give Allen more support and options. The line has been better than I thought, but that is not to say that they are even remotely good, but they aren't the absolute worst which is kind of remarkable. The Offense really has nowhere to go but up and if Allen is showing promise under these circumstances there is a good chance for him to pan out - still a ways to go, but he can definitely play and he certainly looks like a leader that guys will follow.

Greg McCrae (UCF) is probably the best RB in the AAC but only a sophomore. He’s got burst and great vision. There are lots of good value backs that you can find in rounds 4-7. The Bills just need to get one on the roster.