Scott7975

Here is the epa using 10-90%. As I understand it that is the value most people use. I did not generate these. It was from a cover 1 thread on twitter but it was easier to post the graphs than try and embed the tweets. Easier to look at it this way than the tweets are.

I would like to see that as well. I am not doing the work on it though haha

Well sure, it softens the blow so to speak. It also helps that their D has helped them win games so they aren't really in the same position as us as they still lead the conference. I would still want to see my offense play better.

I don't think being 20th in ppg over the last 5 games meaningless. We aren't scoring. Thats a fact. Whats meaningless is EPA. Scoring and stopping other teams from scoring is what matters in the NFL. Wins and losses is what matters in the NFL. I really don't care about advanced analytics showing we are the best when the actual score card shows we are well below average.

The Chiefs offense is also not playing well this year and if I were a Chiefs fan I would be just as disappointed with their offense as I am with the Bills offense. The Chiefs are not the measuring stick for offense this year. Just because the Chiefs offense is also bad doesn't make our 20th in points offense good. There are still 19 teams better.

Again, over the last 5 games the Bills are 20th in points per game. Even over the last 3 games which removes a 6 point game and a 14 point game the Bills are tied 13th and only 1.3 ppg from being 15th (average.) They are not good on offense if they don't score. This isn't a league wide problem. Maybe you are ok with being average while having an elite QB but I am not. With an elite QB, you should not be average, which is actually well below average over the last 5.

I am going to put my basic theory on whats going on with this offense. This offensive design is to read pre snap what the coverage is. That determines what side of the field Josh looks at. The leverage of the dbs dictates what route the receivers run. This is why Josh doesnt see the open guy on the still shot image people love to post and say "look, he's open!!" and why this offense always looks so disjointed. Maybe not all the time but at least some of the time. Josh isn't looking 1-2-3-4-(5). Its really more like 1-2 oh crap what now? Probably why it may also seem he is "locked on" to a guy. There is no gameplan really specific to an opponent. There is no cat and mouse going on during the game. Dorsey calls a play and they line up. If in this coverage read that side of the field. If in that coverage read this side of the field. This is why we get comments like "he only runs two routes" from the opposing players. Teams that disguise their coverage well makes you read the wrong thing. That slows down the decision making. Teams have enough film of this now to know exactly where the players are going and where the reads are going to be. There may be guys open but they probably were not part of the reads based on the coverage Josh seen presnap. This may be highly efficient from a play perspective because it technically should have the coverage beat no matter what play the defense is running as the offense should always have an out. However, it takes extreme execution on every single play from start to finish. The presnap read has to be correct. If it isn't then it has to be identified immediately. Only half the receivers are reads so they have to get open. It's more difficult for them to get open because the defense knows what the primary reads are so they toughen up their coverage to those reads post snap. The other options aren't even looked at except when Josh is in hero mode after the play has broken down. It also limits the offensive routes. The D knows where the players are going because they know what routes are being run based on their own coverage call. This is extremely limiting as really only half the receivers are ever being considered. It also means the receiver and the QB both have to always read things the same way. It puts the entire weight of the game on Josh shoulders and none of it on the coordinator having a good gameplan and being good at chess. No plays are run to set up future plays. Just a theory. I obviously don't know ***** about football like some others around here but I do have a really good mind for troubleshooting as thats what I did all my life.

For me, I don't care about optics. Just win the football game. I don't think this team is going to a super bowl this year or anything but I still want my team winning football games. Losing this one and the door to the playoffs is pretty much closed. Miami would have to collapse for us to make the playoffs because a wc isn't happening.

I'd agree with that. I honestly thought Jacksonville was overhyped but I was totally wrong. They are playing well.

I think probably talent and also probably aggressiveness. McD can get aggressive on blitzes but he plays soft zone non aggressive on the back end. Our guys don't even chuck the receiver at the line when they play close. I made comments about that in the GDT this week. Even when our coverage played at the line they were still letting free releases of the receivers. I couldn't believe it. Just my guess though.

I think that thread would be massive popular here. Look at how much everyone talks about the cover 1 stuff around here and when Einstein or a couple others throw some stuff up. People love seeing plays broke down and ones like me that aren't so smart love hearing/reading how it supposed to work. Honestly some of it is still over my head because I had some brain damage but I still like it. As long as it isn't like wall of text jargon I don't understand.

I agree. I dont think KC has looked like the class of the conference either. Their offense has been as bad as ours. Their D has been killing it though. I think our D would have been killing it if not for the injuries but it is what it is.

Ok but does that matter when we scored 6 points and 18 points in a loss those two games? If you want EPA to show that the offense was good those two games then you are just looking for reasons to make the offense look good when it wasn't. I watched those two games and the offense was terrible.

Defenses don't adjust shallow because they don't give a crap about the shallow. We could take it all game long and they wouldn't adjust because it doesn't matter. When you throw for 2-3 yards a pop, it only takes one mistake to kill the drive. Those drives are too long to consistently be perfect. This is the backbone of what McD has done on defense since he has gotten here. It is nothing new.

I’m reaching? Seems you agree with me. Did you read my post?

I watched the video a day ago. My memory is not that good to pair each player on each play with your comments. I’ll look again tomorrow. as for “taking away what Josh likes” you realize this isn’t the first year defense has given Josh this coverage right? It’s not even the second year. Josh has faced and torched this coverage when Daboll was here too. josh has faced man. He has faced zone. He has faced blitz. He has faced cover zero. He has faced two high designed to take away the deep stuff. He has torched it all. That’s why Josh was a problem in 2021 for defenses. Because he torched everything thrown at him. Daboll had a plan, not just a generic system. Daboll was also far more creative and less predictable. Dorsey just lines up and runs the play. I’m not even a Daboll fan but Dorsey’s offense isnt even in his league.

The design is still the problem. This is not what Josh excels at. You make your offense around the personnel, not force the personnel into stuff they don't excel at. Imagine Miami having Tua chuck balls like Josh last year. It doesn't work that way. I am also not sure I agree with your assessment but I don't have all22 so...

Oddly the Chiefs got Reid because his team also recognized he couldn't get Philly over the hump. Both teams have since been to Super Bowls lol. I banged the table for the Bills to get Reid that year.

I can already envision our D chasing a fat over the hill Wilson to the first down marker and not get the tackle.

I think that is probably coupled with his year of mediocrity. More so the last 5 weeks of crap offense. If it were a once in a while game, I doubt you'd hear as much outrage.

Funny. I read a quote from Dorsey saying the went away from it because of field position. Whatever the hell that means.

I wished you had the time to do what cover 1 does. Id watch that all day over them. It's obvious you know what the hell you are talking about. I think those guys are ok but not to the extent of your knowledge.

Disagree. Josh makes that throw against the same coverage quite a bit. Just that everyone cheers when its a TD or 20-30 yard gain. They don't question the decision.

Well first I never said the comparisons are ridiculous unless I am more braindead than I thought. I said they aren't the same. We don't have the same soft schedule, we don't have the same weak division, and we haven't looked THIS bad on a 5 game stretch. Secondly, these are my thoughts about where current things stand. I'll bring it back when I want. That could be every week for an update on standings each week. That might not even be until the end of the season where I can say I was right or wrong. It won't be because I am so braindead that I can't remember my own thread though. I'm not that damn stupid. I mean, you are still running a Josh Allen MVP thread. Should I insult your memory and tell you to bring that up at the end of the year when he once again doesn't win it?