Straight Hucklebuck

After Poyer they were down to $8M - $10M in cap space. And they’ve continued to spend after that. I know guys on YouTube speculated that the Cardinals would eat 80% of the salary and hand him over for 7 picks worth of draft capital, but I once FA got rolling I never thought it was a realistic idea for the Bills. How are they going to make his cap hit $3M for this season? Outside of Hopkins ripping up his deal and signing for 3 years $9M? It’s not realistic.

Never was realistic once Poyer was brought back. The Bills could have swung it on the opening days of FA, but it would have come at the expense of several other FAs Beane has pulled in.

5 years worth of starting experience, played 50% - 60% snaps for the Seahawks. Beane has done a great job with what little money he had to work with to cram in as many quality FAs as he can. I don’t know if Clark, Ngakoue, Ingram or Houston would play for that low-end money, but that would round out the defense. Even if they don’t, Beane has reeled in several nice players from other teams.

Yes I agree with this. Right now I'd wager the Bills take more risks on defense, and they pull back the offense from the dependence on the big play. The offense may look more like 2019.

Will the Bills stay determined to run the ball more?

Why did they love Addison so much?

Like others, I kind of see the Bills offense pulling back some, ala 2019. Until we see the OC actually commit to the run game, it's not a reality, but I have never bought that Cook will be the dominant ball carrier, stepping into the starting role. We've never seen that from McDermott. The smaller, faster, younger back has always been chained to a more grizzled, physical veteran. Now with Harris and Murray added to Cook, if McDermott puts his thumb on Dorsey, I can see the run game becoming more of a steady diet in this offense. Both those guys are only here on 1-year deals, but that's never stopped the Bills from splitting carries in half (Gore-Singletary), (Singletary, Moss), (Singletary, Cook). At the same time, I do think the Bills will look to be more efficient on offense. I think the average depth of target will come down. I do expect Kincaid, Shakir to be a bigger part of working the middle of the field, with less dependence on Gabe Davis vertically. The Bills didn't lean into Josh Allen's desire to throw deep this off-season. Kincaid, Sherfield and Harty profile to me as targets closer to the LOS, with only Shorter a smarter bet to play the occasional Kumerow deep throw. I think they are going to dial Allen back some and look to increase efficiency.

This is a good post. I think the Bills are likely to flip-flop team approaches this year. I can see the Bills looking at the tape of 13-seconds and Cincinnati, and concluding as John Fina said - this Walt Corey, Death by 1,000 paper cuts style of defense is not going to work. Because they have strained and pulled the cap to bring back essentially the same personnel minus Edmunds, they could attempt to play the same scheme, but I think they're smarter on that. I think they trust White, Hyde, Poyer, Von Miller, Milano to run a more aggressive defense. I think they will conclude that they need to take more chances, cheat the Safeties closer to the line, play more press man. The Bills don't have a physically imposing defense. They just don't have many physical mismatch players. Who is scary on the Bills defense? No maulers on the defensive line, no linebackers that light people up, years of conservative play in the secondary. They are a defense ripe to get pushed around. And maybe that's why they've tried to hang back for years. But I can see a secondary in approach where they aren't as obsessed with getting beat over the top. Trying to create more turnovers, more confusion. But you're right here, the bottom end of the defensive line - Settle, Epenesa, Basham, they're poor and can only be used on a rotational basis based on the opposing teams look. Based on what Beane has said and the veterans still available, I do anticipate Beane trying to bring in at least one veteran to add some grit to an otherwise toothless defense.

I’m taking all the low’s there. I don’t think the offense is trending towards breaking pass records.

Once FA kicked off, the Bills had to restructure players to get under the cap. If the Bills were going to get Hopkins they needed to get aggressive and make that the first thing they pursued. And that comes at the expense of a good percentage other FAs. Once the Bills started retaining their own talent, bringing back Poyer, that moment for Hopkins passed. Podcasters and Bills fans kept bringing up pie in the sky scenarios about the Cardinals eating 80%’of the money and trading Ed Oliver and a 5th. In other words Bills fans wanted to give up their garbage and the Cardinals hand over Hopkins. The Bills have no cap space. Beane said it again in his press conference. You saw how much it took to move up 2-spots for Kincaid. To go from 27th to 19th and get ahead of all the WR group would have cost a 2nd and a 3rd most likely. The Bills right or wrong love Gabe Davis, so with Diggs, Davis, Kincaid, Knox, it would have to be one heck of a WR to jump Knox, Kincaid and Davis to slot just behind Diggs.

How's that cape John? I gave the Bills a B+ for the draft by the way, just don't feel like they got much R3-R7, but you can't say that on this board without the caped crusaders dashing in to protect the Bills. And before you say it again John, yes I know they won 13 games last year.

Hard to judge, Kincaid and Torrence are both high end talents. They’ll play right away. But R3-R7 I don’t think we got much of anything. Kincaid could become the best Tight End in Bills history. B+

Dawkins - 5 McGovern - 3 Morse - 3 Torrence - Hopefully a 4 Brown - 2 Miller - 6 Jones - 4 Oliver - 3 Lawson - 3 Rousseau - 4 Settle - 2 Phillips - 2 Epenesa - 2 Basham - 1

All you keep saying is the Gibbs pick is egregious. So Carter and or maybe Gonzalez or Turner and then no answer for the 2nd round pick. So no real answer even when presented the premium positions around when the Lions picked.

What would have been a better draft? Lions original picks were: R1- 6th Who was available: Tyree Wilson, Paris Johnson Jr, Jalen Carter, Darnell Wright, Peter Skrownski R1-18th Kancey, Jaxson Smith-Ngijba or any of the Wide Receivers, Banks R2-17th Mauch, Benton, Cam Smith, Gervon Dexter R2-24th Rashee Rice, Stevenson, John Michael-Schmitz, O’Cyrus Torrence, DJ Turner

Thanks Vince, that’s exactly where I stand on Kincaid and Torrence. High-end Offensive talent. Happy the Bills showed that willingness to go offense over defense.

One of the things that bothers me about Mike Schopp and the draft conversation is his insistence that trading down in always the right decision. He contends that teams have no idea who is going to be good, so accumulate more players, more picks. (I don’t agree with that because I think Scouting is real and it matters). Of course I agree with what you’ve written above, there are key positions. But what Mike Schopp misses and what I think is being lost here is that the players you ultimately pick matter. They have to be good. For instance, the Lions picked Jeff Okudah 3rd overall. He should have been a dominant corner. Played a premium position, huge school. But he was marginal from Day 1, then got hurt. The Broncos took Bradley Chubb 4th overall. Was he good? Did he justify the pick? Another guy that got hurt and never really wants dominant. Jadeveon Clowney at #1 overall, worth it? Denzel Ward at 5th overall in the Chubb draft, got a second contract, how is their defense? Are they a good team? Even Myles Garrett. I was listening to 850 WKNR on Friday, #1 overall, but there are some Browns fans that think he collects a lot of empty sacks. The numbers look good, 14 sacks, but there are people who think that’s a lot of empty first quarter sacks and then he disappears the rest of the game. Not saying never draft DE, WR, OT high. I agree they’re hard to find positions. But like Schopp, who you pick matters, they have to be good otherwise who cares if they play a high dollar position.

So trade down and take? Or package up 6 and 18 and draft who at 3-4? The Patriots altered their franchise by trading down a couple of slots and getting Gonzalez? Or the Jags who got an extra 4th and picked up the last of the highly rated tackles? Do you wanted more of the Texas Tech DE at #6 and the best corner remaining at #18 or JSN?

Earlier in the off-season you commented that simply bringing back the same guys on the defensive line - Phillips and Lawson wasn’t ideal, you wanted more talent. Looking at it now, how do you feel about the defensive line? You reference all the available veteran talent on the FA market, but as Beane stated: they have to play for $2M or less. He again referenced low money so I never understood how Hopkins was going to fit. Still don’t other than pie in the sky scenarios about the Cardinals eating 80% of his salary and adding 4 void years on the end of the deal.

You’re not allowed to say that Eastport. The answer is Dorian Williams was highly sought after, as was Bernard and Dodson will be a revelation at MLB. Beane hears the MLB chatter, he acknowledged in his press conference. They don’t always get it right though- see Hines on November 1st, and Hines now. 11 offensive touches after the trade, when Beane was at the podium saying he’s a weapon - slot, out of the backfield, etc. None of that happened. The Bills are a great team, so they get the benefit of the doubt.

Lions got 4 starters right of the gate and correctly moved off DeAndre Swift who was always hurt. Gibbs becomes what Swift was supposed to be. Day one starter at MLB Day one starter at TE (and you could argue who was better LaPorta or Mayer). Day one starter and best Safety in the class Upside developmental QB in Hooker

If Kincaid becomes the best TE in franchise history, then none of the other picks really matter. He should have a good chance to do that.

I understand all of that. Thank you. Listen, it’s unpopular. Bills fans want to cheer and clap for their team. Rush in and defend every position. I praised the Bills for their first two picks. Kincaid made sense after the WR run. Torrence was great. No issues. I just think the Bills got little actual help for their team R3-R7. Maybe I’m wrong, probably am. But you tell me the Cards get Williams, Shorter, Broeker, Austin and Bills get Hopkins? I do that Trade all day every day. Seeing what the Bills got? Got those Pom-Poms just a waving.

Actually if sacks and TFLs don’t count, just tackles, then yes, Dorian Williams was more productive. Also I addressed the position by saying Abdullah played “edge”. Also, Beane kind of cuts your own argument out from under you because he’s most likely starting on the outside given the complexity of the Bills defense and Tulane’s simple system. All from Beane’s mouth. When Beane talks about how fast and athletic Williams is, it just sticks out to me that Jacksonville picked a bigger player, with better overall measurable, big sack production a round and a half later. Our reporters brought up the obvious fact that Bernard and Williams are virtually the same size. We all know Williams is not going to be a MIKE linebacker in the NFL at 6’1” 228 pounds. Same with Bernard. Kline is the starter right now.

Not at all Pbomb. Just looked at what other teams did and made judgements about the value of the players I think the Bills got. Another one for instance. AT Perry to the Saints in the 6th. 2,300 yards, 152 catches and 26 TDs at Wake Forest in his final two seasons. 6’3”-1/2”, so why is Shorter the better value if every GM we know says “the tape” is the most important thing? Ran faster at the Combine, better agility scores and jump scores as well. Shorter is more muscular, and maybe that’s what the Bills decided, but I don’t see how they got any value past Torrence.