Straight Hucklebuck

Also, there is no pass rush. McDermott brought #30 on blitz from weak side to try and get anything. So far they’ve made Mac move once.

Have to get Diggs involved. Need to get TOP on our side.

I think todays it’s been the OLine and and Special Teams. They can’t hold up for Allen to do much other than checkdown. I also think the Allen designed runs might have to make a comeback for today. Teams are making the Bills execute painful 15+ play drives.

Right now we need 18 play drives, I think we need another playmaker, been saying it since the Emmanuel Sanders signing.

Our offensive line is being dominated. Defensively they’ve stopped the leak up the middle. Special teams is hurting the Bills. Pats have had great punt coverage and placement.

Yes. The video they did yesterday “educating” everyone on what realistic expectations are and as you said blanket statements about the impatience of the Bills fan base. Greg Tompsett is dismissive. But also, not the fans fault for the Bills GM coming out and talking about how Hines was going to be a weapon out of the backfield (reality is he touches the ball 11 times in 9 games), or Beane talks about Kincaid being a “big slot” and where has that been, or how Kincaid and Knox present mismatches to the defense, but you add up their involvement and it’s 200 yards and 1 TD in 6 weeks. We get told how hard Gabe works, ok. So sure on average the Bills have great stats offensively.

He produces free content on the internet with other guys who I don’t think played past High School. 🤷🏻‍♂️ From the detail you provide it sounds like you are a defensive coordinator at the college level that does this for a living. Anyway, my biggest sticking point with Cover 1 is everything is shaded through Bills colored lenses.

So all week it’s been racking our brains to come up with solutions to increase the suddenness and points output of the offense. For me, it’s a show me game. Is Gabe still going to play 95% of the snaps? Are the Allen designed runs out of the offense? Does Allen scramble? Is there any emphasis on Kincaid? Otherwise I assume we’ll get the same, Diggs 8-85-1, and Cook/Murray being the second punch, Harty 2-8, Shakir 1-10, and a workman like 27-13 Bills win.

The Ernest Wilford game.

What would be interesting is those first few stats for Burrow compared to Allen. Because seemingly their offense has been Burrow to Chase, and last week all the calf excuse was gone and they still only got to 17, with 3 in the second half. So Allen is 30th in first read percentage, where is Burrow? Also the stats on Burrow checking down, because again he tried to go deep last week and it was an underthrown interception. Against Arizona it was all good.

The Bills passed on AJ Brown and DK Metcalf. Looks like they traded up from 40 to 38 to draft Ford. The 49ers took Deebo 36th overall. Hard to know whether Bills make the Stefon Diggs move while also having AJ Brown or DK Metcalf on the roster. They were 1,000 yard and 900 yard WRs as rookies.

I think Beane recognized the need for a #1 WR and minimized all Draft risk by trading for Diggs. It was a definite step up from 2019 when Duke Williams led the team in targets in the Houston Playoff game. But after that, they've stopped real efforts to get another top-level WR playmaker. 2020 was Diggs, a prime Beasley, a declining but still starting John Brown, rookie Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie and 2nd year Knox. 2021 was Diggs, a declining Cole Beasley (~680 yards), the addition of Emmanuel Sanders on his last go around (~600 yards) as the #2, Gabe Davis in the same role (~550 yards) and McKenzie. Knox increased his role. 2022 the bottom 3 was Shakir, Crowder, Kumerow, and they brought back both Beasley and Brown late to get Josh more comfortable with his offensive stable. Knox held steady. In 2023, they turned over 2/3rds of the bottom 3 with Shakir and now Harty and Sherfield. The only real potential difference maker in the rotation is Dalton Kincaid. They haven't tried to pair Diggs with another upper tier WR, or take a significant draft swing. I don't think that's unfair.

We want to win.

BADOLBILZ nailed it by reminding everyone that the closest the Bills got to the Super Bowl was a lopsided defeat in the 2020 AFCCG. That was peak Beasley, peak Diggs, a declining but still starting John Brown, Knox, Singletary and Moss and probably our best offensive line until 2023, with Daboll. So I understand why people have positive memories of Beasley, but when we talk evolution of the offense, Allen has said this is Daboll’s offense to a large degree, so it’s been two years of Gabe as the #2 target in this offense, and it’s hard for me to envision right now that without more playmaking this team is going to run the AFC gauntlet in January.

This is a great reminder. WGR (especially the morning show) pine for "easy button" Cole Beasley routes again - and that's the role they pegged Dalton Kincaid for, and maybe to some degree Brandon Beane. They constantly equate the Bills and Chiefs as the same team because the betting odds are the same. There is a gap, and the Bills need more playmaking. Chris Simms is correct, just as he was when he pointed this out last year.

Thanks for this. Allen is still a playmaker, so Diggs and Kincaid as the #1-#2 with no Gabe Davis, and the same Harty, Sherfield (I know he’s only on a one year deal) and Shakir leaves the team with next to no deep speed beyond Diggs, who has just enough to threaten the entire defense. Gabe also brings the only WR with size on the team. So good points all around. A steady, consistent 50-55 yards per game to work sustaining routes, seems achievable for Kincaid, but the Bills would be short an outside WR with deep capability without Gabe. And I’m guessing we don’t want all our rocket armed QB to work nothing but underneath routes because all he has is Diggs.

Agree and that’s why I set the bar there. That’s a darn good Tight End, but you’re not banking on peak Gronk/Kelce because it’s unrealistic. 600-800 yards a year, is that good enough to be the #2 option? I think we just keep coming back to the same question, Gabe going to 170 yards in one game, to 20 yards the next game, the averages look good, but is it enough? Most likely we’ll have another round of Playoffs in 2023 to go with his 2022 performance as the sole #2, 2021 Sanders was out of gas by mid-season so that’s in the evaluation as well.

There is a reason the Bills are never at the top of skill talent rankings. Diggs keeps the Bills tethered in the top half of the league, but why is it so outlandish to say that Gabe is alright, and beyond him there isn’t one young player with high upside. Kincaid is the wild card here because we don’t know his ceiling yet. But even if he’s Dallas Goedert (Top 8, but not Top 1-2), is that good enough to be your second option? But Gabe is up after this year. Put up the poll on who would re-sign him to $20M/year to stay locked in as the #2. Also, Diggs is now 30 and his cap hit will continue to increase. Even the most ardent Gabe supporters would admit he is not a #1, so what is your plan on that front? Run Diggs until the wheels fall off, have a first round WR to start phasing in? So far there has been 0 Diggs decline, so maybe you’re in good shape for 3 more years, and you can keep the current Diggs-Davis 1-2 for 3 more years.

His contract is up after the season, are you extending him to stay on as your #2?

How much more production can be squeezed out of this offense if the personnel stays the same? Gabe, Harty, Shakir, Sherfield are good enough behind Diggs to win 3 Playoff games? Do the Bills just "live with" Gabe seemingly going up and down? Is that going to work against Playoff defenses? Is Diggs 12+ targets a game sustainable? Is Kincaid the next player that needs development? For instance, not sure why, but Michael Mayer for the Raiders has gone from not being targeted in the first 4 games of the season, to now being utilized. I don't know the specifics of coverage and concepts other Raiders are running to free him, but against the Patriots he motioned across the formation, on snap Garoppolo goes with him and throws to him in stride left to right and it's an immediate 20 yards. Similar formation later in the game, he runs diagonally across the field (with 10 yards depth), Garopollo in stride, and he turns it up for another 20 yard gain. Athletically, I can't believe that Kincaid couldn't do that. Motion is one lever, but is the personnel good enough to score against good teams?

Happy to see Spencer Brown not seriously injured. Felt bad for him getting shoved from behind and pushed down on a cheap shot. His cleat looked like it stuck in the ground and caused the twisted knee.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/buf/table/receiving/sort/receivingTargets/dir/desc In your mind do the Diggs targets need to change (either direction), stay the same? And who, needs more? Less? I guess you could pair this with snap counts. A variable here is also the run game. I do think the 2023 Bills offensive line is better than the 2022 offensive line, and I do think the combination of Cook-Murray is better than Singletary-Cook, so a lof has been made of the getting under Center more and running less Shotgun draw plays. Is the run game the Bills second best pitch? And is that a development path/curveball to throw at teams? I guess my goal would be to have a solid #2 offensive option come Playoff time, because in 2020 we saw that our weapons weren't as dynamic as prime Mahomes-Kelce-Hill, 2021 we thought Gabe was ready for his breakout, 2022 we learned the line was bad and we had to call John Brown and Cole Beasley back, and in 2023 maybe it's if you have to live with Gabe going up and down, then who keeps games afloat outside of Diggs?

HoofedHearted, thanks for diagnosing all these attempts. In your mind what would help this offense avoid lower point outputs - Jets, Jaguars, Giants? How does Dorsey extract more out of the personnel he has at his disposal?

This is why I push back on Erik Turner on Cover 1 when he says Dorsey needs to spread the ball out more, that other people need specific schemes for them. It’s easy to say, just throw it to Harty more. But his size and playing time (determined by the coaches) will limit how consistent that can be. Do I want Dorsey racking his brain on how to get Harty more involved, how to maximize a 6-yard crossing route at the expense of targets to Diggs? Shakir is getting 15-20 snaps a game, I think he’s underutilized, but that means Gabe or Diggs, Knox/Kincaid (when he takes a breather) needs to come off the field more. Should be pushing Knox to be like he used to be (Patriots game years ago) with long throws? I guess I come away from these games concluding Allen to Diggs just works. He takes Dorsey’s scheme and regardless if multiple Bills players are standing in the same spot) or teams double him he produces. The problem of course is the Playoffs, and we know Diggs alone can’t carry the passing offense, just as Rodgers-Adams couldn’t. So focus on Kincaid and Gabe Davis. How can those two be utilized better? Those two need more production if the offense is going to balance, but it’s not going to be as effective as regular season Diggs.

What does not get past mean? Does it mean I don't think they'll score 30 ppg the rest of the year - no. Does it mean that they won't make the Playoffs? What is the exit criteria here?