Straight Hucklebuck

Matt Milano PFF - Take it for what its worth, but they're not grading him high either. OVERALL GRADE 35.8 AVG 164th/171 LBs PASS RUSH GRADE 62.4 AVG 59th/171 LBs RUN DEFENSE GRADE 40.4 AVG 163rd/171 LBs COVERAGE GRADE 43.6 AVG 145th/171 LBs Spector and Smoot 21-day window is opening as well today.

Rapp and Douglas characterized as day to day.

No Rasul Douglas today at practice. No Rapp either. Keon Coleman full. Walkthrough.

So Anzalone is out, Rodriguez is out for the season, of course Hutchinson. Branch was limping around last week, but that was reported as cramps. McNeil left the Packers game with a head injury. DJ Reader was out with a hamstring maybe (Edit: Reader was a shoulder in the Thanksgiving game). Paschal was out. Taylor Decker was out last week. You get the feeling all but the IR guys are going to be back.

A) and do whatever you can do to prioritize health.

"Sorry Josh I just panicked"

I agree - not sure where that narrative started - the whole - they’re the only ones who can do that to us narrative. 2019 - 6 losses 2020 - 3 losses 2021 - 6 losses 2022 - 3 losses 2023 - 6 losses 2024 - 3 losses Nobody will be able to replicate what the Rams did, maybe that’s true, but it’s not ironclad. Anyways, it’s all opportunity for the Bills. They’re in the Playoffs, their offense is back to outputs not seen since 2020, and they finish with 3 winnable games against the division.

But none of this really says anything. Of course the chances aren’t literally 0.0%, but onside kick recover is 3% - 5% now that you have to declare. McDermott said yesterday in his 4:00 PM press conference that he wishes he never called the timeout. So all that stuff about two bad options just kind of went away. Nothing the Bills can do about it now, and we’ll see if this game ultimately would have been the difference in the #1 seed, but this is just such a basic and common scenario so how the coaches got this wrong when McDermott explained they were talking about it during the final drive is beyond me. Andy Reid punted on 4th-2 from the Raiders 42 yard line and then watched the Raiders go down the field and get into field goal range only to be bailed out by a botched snap. It happens. These end of game mistakes on pretty basic scenarios keep happening 2-3 a year under McDermott. It’s not all just happenstance.

I think it’s okay to examine McDermott’s tenure after this Playoff run. The Bills are in as the #1, #2, #3 or #4 seed and will host a Playoff game. If we look at his results in the Playoffs: 2017 - Ended the Drought Year 1 2019 - Couldn’t get a 16-0 lead into the garage, but Allen showed playmaking. 2020 - Hung on against the Colts, shutdown Lamar and the Ravens, and the final narrative seems to be Bills weren’t ready to beat the Chiefs. 2021 - Perfect game against New England, and then chose not to squib and play 20-yards off every WR. 2022 - Survived Miami, got physically whipped against the Bengals. Could not handle their aggressive mindset. 2023 - Convincing victory against Pittsburgh, injury riddled team loses to Chiefs. So 5-6 overall, 5-5 with Allen. 2019 - Wildcard 2020 - AFCCG 2021 - Divisional 2022 - Divisional 2023 - Divisional 2024 - ? Allen is approaching/at his peak maybe, so again, depending on how far this Playoff run goes I think it’s fair to ask can this organization “get over the hump” with McDermott. Allen has used that phrase several times in press conferences, so it’s valid as the main goal left.

Bills could use a lot of stuff - a ballhawk in the secondary, another great pass rusher, a better #2 corner, a better answer than the pair of DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver, a 1st Round TE that played like one, Ja’Marr Chase at WR1. Thats not really saying a whole lot though.

Year 8 for McDermott now - and against the Texans we’re throwing from the 3 yard line, he says after the game we should have ran it. Today he’s saying they should have preserved the timeouts and thrown the ball at the goal line. Last year he plays for OT against the Eagles. 12-men on the field against the Broncos. We all know the big one. I do think you have to look at Allen’s career, now in Year 7 and say if he’s hypothetically 1/2-way through it now does it warrant a chance with an offensive coach? McDermott has had several years with his guys in the coaching room and the players that fit his scheme. So much so that Micah, Jordan, Jefferson are all coming back to the team. I think it’s fair to ask the question. Allen will be 29 next year. He stays at this level until when?

I think it will. Starting with the modern-Allen run in 2020 you saw the Colts out-gain the Bills, and the team had to hang on. They put up 472 yards that day. The Chiefs multiple times - hard to stop prime Mahomes with Kelce. The Bengals game was not competitive. Mixon could have run for 200-yards that day, soft serve coverage. Last year I don’t crush the Bills - Allen was pressing a lot. Down your #2 WR, MLB, backup-MLB, #2 corner, Rapp, no Milano, so that was kind of in a separate bucket for me. Allens losses excluding Texans, Chiefs x3, Bengals. Quality win - Ravens. Allen always having to do so much in the majority of these games (in the 2020 AFCCG Allen’s WRs disappeared), we’ve seen no pass rush before, we’ve seen the Bills sit back and try to keep everything in front of them. They’ve gotten a lot of turnovers this year, so that was to be noted, I just wouldn’t count on Rousseau dominating a game, but he’s the most talented defender on the Bills.

My general thought on this was the Bills missed their first window after the Diggs trade. Beane did not get a second impact WR and it capped them for the next three seasons. I think Von Miller was the next capping move. He was too old and too expensive. Listen to his last video on buffalobills.com, he’s a mercenary. He’s had a few moments (Mahomes pressure 2+ years ago), but it’s been too little (missed tackle on a running back in the hole, announcing that he shouldn’t have been on the field all last year). He cost a lot of money so the Bills have tried to justify that contract. I think small things play factors - misses in the 2nd Round - Cody Ford, Boogie Basham. Not interviewing for coordinators from outside the organization. This leads to drafting the same style of players over and over naturally. It’s not all bad of course, good stability, a FO that was built from the ashes of Marv Levy, Russ Brandon, Buddy Nix and Doug Whaley, overall good free agent signings on the cheap after the cap got tight.

He called for McDermott to be fired after the Texans game.

Well there is a lot to this. We’re picking in the 20’s now, the Bills have extended several starters and have little cap flexibility, we draft the same sort of players on defense because the scheme hasn’t changed in 8 years, Von’s contract and injury have been a net negative.

Just notes on some of the big catches - 1st play of game - Taron Johnson is late - too much space - easy Nucua catch - Trips to Nucua - Trips to Kupp - Atwell in front of #47 - Stack bunch, flare route to Nucua - Late motion by Nucua, loose coverage, catches ball behind Hamlin - Nucua incredible catch over Benford - Nucua mosses Johnson - 3rd-10, tight coverage, Kupp outruns #31 - Atwell wide open, finds hole in zone - Stack Nucua, huge hole - Kupp TD - #31 outside leverage and late? - Nucua crosses Johnson's face - 3rd-18 - everyone runs deep - Parkinson leaks out for 13 - 4th -5 - Benford gets beat across the field by Atwell (didn't press) - Nucua stack play, easy pick and blocking down the field for TD

Where was Bernard yesterday? He was invisible.

Stafford only threw the ball 30 times, it seemed like 50 attempts, but 76% completion. When he was used out of a stack the Bills would trot over the same number of corners, Nucua would take one step back, catch the flare route, and his WRs would block the Bills DBs out of the way with ease.

Again wasn't this a bone break with reports that all his knee ligaments were intact? I think the bigger issue is he is playing with one arm out there, with a restriction brace on leaving it in an L. Yeah it's not his fault. The Bills training staff and coaches have just stepped on the gas immediately with him. Two weeks of practice and he's just taking 100% of non-Dime snaps now.

I looked this up, on first watch I thought the Rams RBs got into the second level easily in the first half, and then the Bills tightened in the 2nd half. First Half -3, 3, 1, 7, 12, 4, 3, 2, 11, 7, 6, 0, 2, 0, 7, -1, 10, -1, 4, 1 20 carries, 81 yards in the first to Rams RBs. 4.05 ypc. Puka had 5, 9, 4 and a TD. Second Half 0, 1, 3, 4, 7, 4, 2, 5, 0, 0, 6, 0, 5, 2, 2, 4 16 carries, 45 yards (2.81 ypc). Puka had 1, -3 42 carries to get 137 yards at 3.3 ypc. Conclusion is Puka Nucua and Cooper Kupp destroyed the Bills defense. 17-252-2 in the air (79% of Stafford's 320 passing). I too thought it was worse against the run that it actually was. Because they could convert so easily on 3rd down they could afford ineffective runs and just soak time of possession.

I have no faith that if this team has a slim lead at the end of the game and the other team gets the ball, that the Bills defense isn't right back to extreme prevent playing 20 yards off every WR.

Health is #1 priority now.

In the 2nd half. The first two drives it felt like Williams was into the second level constantly with no linebackers in sight and secondary players having to make the tackle. When Corum got his first half drive, he was running with the same results.

The All-22 will reveal this answers to this question. Watching the game once, it looked like in the second half the Bills brought their corners up, played Rapp closer to the box, utilized Cam Lewis and Dime some, and tried some A-gap blitzes. When you look at the second half, the Rams couldn't run the ball, and it really was Nucua and Kupp over and over, an occasional Atwell catch. Stafford threw for ~320. Nucua was ~1/2 of that, and Kupp was ~100 yards. The constant was ZERO defensive line pressure.

It certainly is a good point and something to think consider. Instead of handing out big money contracts on defense, continue to invest in Josh Allen. $100M to Rousseau, $80M for Benford, $40M for Bernard and you're out of money and back to depending on street free agents to fill out the WR group.