Straight Hucklebuck

I agree with this. I get it, McDermott has taken the Bills to the Playoffs twice in three years and has a philosophy of a veteran in every personnel grouping, so he gets credit from the fans. But one aspect of football that I don’t agree with are guys like Lee Smith on the roster for blocking, Vlad Ducasse because he’s a veteran, going after Greg Olsen as a free agent Tight End, valuing Joe Webb as a “dual threat” or giving 10 carries a game, on average, to Frank Gore. Those guys are hanging on, when rookies are cheaper and have their best football in front of them. The Bills started to rebuild their offense in 2019 after the debacle of 2018 skill players. Diggs is another step in the right direction. Flush those bottom end guys off the roster. Gore was such a blind spot for the Front Office and Coaching Staff last year and played a role in the Bills Wildcard loss.

No problem man, it’s a respected philosophy. I just wonder if that method of achieving yards has been eclipsed by more efficient methods.

In my opinion 10 touches for McCoy is 10 too many. Those represent wasted downs, and the Bills have enough 3 & outs and dead 3rd quarters as it is. Too much nostalgia and reverence for McCoy. He’s shot, Gore’s shot, Ivory and Tolbert were shot, it’s over for 32+ year old backs. John Murphy talked about McCoy like he was a Barry Sanders, and call me a millennial, but the last thing I want as a Bills fan is an offense that “runs through” a 200-year old running back. Singletary and a rookie. There Devin, now you are the veteran of the group.

All that means is a slow plodding veteran. That is a strategy that holds Allen back and doesn’t allow for points to be scored. When Frank Gore or Chris Ivory or Mike Tolbert or Lesean McCoy is on the field, the defense has no concern. They know it’s base defense, 3 yards and a cloud of dust. It’s a relic of the past that coaches can’t get over.

But why pay that salary for a backup? When you can simply draft someone who is faster and not on their last legs? Gore’s career is at the end, he’s having to switch teams now every year. McCoy is in the same boat, having to extend his career with one years deals. A 5th rounder could come in and give you 4 yards a carry and pass catching ability without the salary and play time pressure.

We saw this with Greg Olsen. If he came here, Dawson Knox would be on the bench, watching a past their prime 35 year old. Coaches like familiar, they like systems. But our offense is starved for points, not physicality. Rex showed that you aren’t going to show up and just bulldoze an opponent out of the way. Prioritize the playmakers.

The other thing that happens with veteran players is the Bills coaching staff feels like the owe them playing time because of legacy, and so players like Gore and McCoy get entirely too much playing time as younger more explosive players are held back. RB is not a position to try and go back in time. Get younger and faster. It’s one of the things I disagreed with Beane about, talking about how they wanted downhill thumping of Gore instead of Yeldon.

I wouldn’t go the washed up veteran route. We don’t need more Mike Tolbert's, Chris Ivory’s, Frank Gore’s. Do what we did last year, get a 22-year old rookie with some juice in their legs. The Bills/Beane will add competition, but I’d rather have Yeldon than McCoy.

That was 33 years ago now. So how is this a relevant fact that helps us determine whether Allen is the franchise QB for the Bills in modern football?

But Watkins has played 81% of games since being traded and hasn’t topped 675 yards in any season, and two times hasn’t topped 600 yards despite being in pass friendly offenses.Thats why the Rams gave up on him after a year and KC reworked his deal. We keep waiting for this Sammy explosion and it’s never going to come. He’s a depth player.

McDermott and Beane have responsibility in this. They have partly moved away from the early mentality of guys like Joe Webb, Mike Tolbert, Chris Ivory, Kaelin Clay, Kelvin Benjamin, Jordan Matthews, Jeremy Kerley. But depending on Frank Gore at the expense of TJ Yeldon was a mistake, giving him 8 carries in the Wild Card game, keeping Yeldon benched, hampered the Bills play making ability. I’m glad we lost out on Greg Olsen. He would be the coaches pick to start, leaving Dawson Knox’s snaps to dwindle. Those kind of decisions about personnel and playing time hurt Allen’s ability to lead the offense, make plays and score points. Less and less in sports is there room for the lunch pail worker who gets by on instincts. You need athletes.

I’ve read the last page of comments. The middle ground is the Bills offense needs to score more points. You have statements like: - Bills fans are spoiled - Bills fans would complain if Allen threw for 299 yards and not 300. - He was a project QB from the beginning - What about Eli and Rivers and Brees Those kind of statements are exaggerated/embellished red herrings to the real crux of the problem: the Bills offense, like many Bills teams of years gone by, does not score enough points to really win by NFL standards, and we’ve seen nearly 30 games of Allen. So the realistic point is this: Beane and McDermott chose the skills over production, and they learned from their lack of investment into the skill positions in 2018, so they have continued responsibility to get as much talent on both sides of the ball as possible, and I’ve been satisfied in their roster building in 2019/2020. As for Allen, some Bills fans need to stop comparing Allen against his raw rookie self, and start judging by the current NFL standard. It’s not 2001 (Brees) or 2004 (Rivers, Manning). It’s 2020 and the Bills need more points than 19 a game to break the Playoff win drought. So who cares about those other QBs. Allen has the height, arm, intelligence and work ethic. He needs to cut down the fumbling which plagued him in the second half of 2019 and make more plays, period. Less three and outs, less dead 3rd Quarters. Too often the Bills offense goes dead in the water for chunks of the game. We need more points.

Watkins is in a perfect spot. He's not a #1 because he doesn't have the talent edge at the NFL level, he's not consistent enough to be a #2, so he is a mismatch #3/#4 in Kansas City (Hardman overtakes him this year) that occasionally comes up big, but is never relied on for real production. Diggs > Watkins - Agree Brown < Woods - Agree, Woods is younger and has turned into a stable NFL WR. Beasley > Hogan/Goodwin - Agree, Beasley has carved a niche role in the NFL that is defined. Hogan was always a fringe NFL player and Goodwin's peak was short lived, think Jacoby Ford. McKenzie > Harvin - Agree, Harvin was a name, but no real production past his Vikings days. Prime Shady < Motor - We never saw peak McCoy. He was on the decline when Philadelphia traded him. Karlos > Gore/Yeldon - The Bills should have never signed Frank Gore. TJ Yeldon was an established running back, who can run and catch the ball out of the backfield. Gore is a 36 year old plodder at 3.5 ypc. But Karlos for one year was a phenom in Buffalo.

From the human standpoint he’s been absolutely spot on. He works hard, he says the right things, he’s competitive. Much different than Trent Edwards, who ran out of bounds on 4th down to end the game.

No problem man, thanks for this post.

This is a balanced and fair opinion. When he was provided time to scan the field, and push the ball down the middle of the field, he was a better Quarterback. The uptick is fumbles diminishes some of that improvement, but I think, for me, the aspect of Allen that holds me back from certainty is the offense struggles to put points on the board, too many three and outs, to many dead third quarters. Many games are still 19-20 points scored, with the defense keeping the opponent to 16 points. Allen’s peak was the Cowboys game, anticipation throw to Beasley, arm strength with the end zone throw, the calm in the pocket to stand for 3 seconds and fire the ball straight. He made things happen. So in 2020, his numbers have to go up. He dropped back 46 times against Houston and largely the Bills flat lined from the 3rd Quarter onwards. The offense has to score more. You likely aren’t getting 16 ppg out of the defense and that schedule again. 2018 he played exactly like his scouting reports said he would. 2019 he played on the positive side of his scouting reports. Let’s see in 2020 if he can break out of the boom/bust mode and consistently put points on the board. That’s how we really win by league standards, not just improvement on the Buffalo standard. One thing going for Allen, by all accounts he works incredibly hard and is dedicated to his craft.

You can’t do that when you go 4-12, 6-10 and 6-10 with Fitzpatrick and your GM gets pranked and caught on a recorded line saying the organization is struggling with Quarterback and it’s “a helluva time to need one”.

It will change if the Bills consistently win Playoff games with a good Quarterback by modern NFL standards. There is a segment of Lions fans who are grumbling about Stafford, why? Because it’s been 11-years, they are 0-2 in the Playoffs, and going nowhere with yet another Coach. Bengals fans loved Dalton from 2011-2016, but you lose 5-straight Playoff games and go 2-14 and you end up with the worst attendance in the NFL. Josh goes out and throws for 4,700 yards, 36 TDs and runs for another 6 and the Bills go to the AFC Championship Game? It will be the best season by a Bills QB in 27+ years. It will take Playoff wins for everyone - McDermott, Beane, Allen the fans. That’s what we’re here for.

The Bills don’t “go through a carousel of quarterbacks”. They gave three years to Trent Edwards. 2007, 2008, 2009. Three years to Ryan Fitzpatrick: 2010, 2011, 2012. They tried EJ in 2013. Then another backup in Orton for 2014. Then three years of Tyrod Taylor in 2015, 2016, 2017. So the Bills have 9 years of the past 13 years where they have tried to make a backup into a starter. Three times they have stuck with a sub-par QB for three years. Instead of a carousel, it’s been garage sales for most of the past 13-15 years.

I wasn’t bashing Josh Allen at all, and I’m not trying to brag about being “right“. I acknowledged his real improvement in 2019 over 2018 and said he works hard. Those were compliments of Allen. I’m just saying for the Bills to really win on a significant level, Allen has to get much better against his peers, not just improving on himself. Bottom line, he has to get this team into the end zone more often than he has the first two years, even if you’re counting rushing and passing TDs. That’s all. Not a bash, just a realistic view of Allen in Year 3. Whereas, let’s say a Darnold, has to show he can even stay healthy enough to be viable.

There are aspects in this post I agree with, and other things that fall into the comfortable zubaz sweatpants of Bills fandom wardrobe. It is reasonable to expect improvement, given how hard Allen works, how serious he takes his job, and as Beane says he is his own worst critic. Stefan Diggs, another year with the same line, backs and receivers, all of the continuity in the Coaching Staff. The continuity stuff is overstated in my opinion, Coaches and GMs have been saying that for years around here, but real work ethic, I agree with. But, the Bills offense still struggles to top 20 points in big games. The average Josh Allen game in 2019 was 1.81 TDS/game (rush and pass), 193 yards passing. The defense held teams to 16 points per game on average and the Bills played an easy schedule. So it’s not that Allen has improved over his rookie year, it’s can he improve when compared against his peers to a meaningful advantage over his peers. Some fans are tired of moral victories. The franchise hasn’t won a Playoff game since 1995. Close but no cigar collapses like we saw in Houston are small incremental improvements over the 10-3 loss at Jacksonville in 2017, but it’s the same struggle for points, the same clinging for dear life to the 16-0 lead, despite 46 attempts from Allen.

It’s a common fan misnomer that Trent was different before and after the concussion. He wasn’t. He was always a 1 TD, 1 Int QB for about 160 yards a game. Stylistically, he never changed from a check down manager. So like many Bills teams from 2005 - 2018 they didn’t score enough to threaten good teams.

I agree with others that the 2010 Draft (and really that entire offseason) was one of the worst I can remember. You had the Chris Kelsay extension, the trade of Marshawn Lynch for a 3rd and 5th Round pick, signing Kevin Kolb as the stop gap answer at QB after his complete failure in Arizona, switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense and using most of the draft to foster that switch, Chan Gailey was out of football when the Bills called, and those George Edwards defenses were in the Bottom 5 of the league. I never understood the Bills plan for CJ Spiller. You would have thought a team would have a plan for a RB taken 9th overall with the "water bug" skill-set Chan wanted. But he got 74 carries total as a rookie, and was averaging 3.3 combined touches (run/pass) per game in 2011, even talk about moving him to WR, until Fred's injury. Then, Chan was forced to let Spiller play and he showed flashes the rest of 2011, and broke out in 2012, although still chained to a time share with Fred. And then it's like he got old, faded out of Buffalo and outside of one game winning catch for the Saints, he drifted out of the league.

2004 was the last year of Pat Williams in Buffalo. In 2005, the Bills thought Tim Anderson could take over at DT. The Bills dropped from a Top 5 defense against the run to 31st. And it started a streak of 8 straight years being 22nd or worse against the run, with Chan's years sticking out as 27th - 31st. But 2006 - 2009 the Bills tried to implement a classic Tampa 2 defense, so it meant 230 pound linebackers like Keith Ellison, and 290 pound DT's like Larry Tripplett. And so Donte Whitner was the first pick of the Marv Levy regime, not Haloti Ngata.

I just think you have to be realistic about Allen. The Dallas game this year was a high point of his career. The anticipation throw to Cole Beasley in the Red Zone, the pass he threaded out of his own end zone. Real growth, real playmaking throws. When he has time/protection to load up and fire the football straight down the football field, I saw a better QB. But the goal isn’t improvement relative to a bottom of the league rookie self, he needs to be better than a good percentage of his peers. You’re in a conference with Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Ben Roethlisberger and so on. The Playoff game showed it’s still a struggle for Josh to orchestrate more than 19-20 ppg. After the hot start, the completion percentage dipped back into the 50’s and the fumbles picked up. So going into Year 3, he’s not in the bottom tier of NFL passers, but he’s not better than half the league until he shows it. At the end of the day, our offense comes up short in big games (Patriots x2, Ravens, Texans).