Straight Hucklebuck

Nobody will rejoice when he flounders. That's a classic embellishment to try and get a rise, nobody said that. By the way Carson Wentz threw for 27 TDs and 7 Ints with practice squad WR's and two NFL Tight Ends. In 2020, if the Bills offense averages 28 ppg and Allen throws for over 4,000 yards! Heck yeah, that's what we all want, all fans would love that. A dominant Bills offense for the first time since the 1990's? Yes. I'm not saying get the hook, Allen is the guy, go get it. I'm just saying I don't want to hear he's raw, he's young, he played at Wyoming. We're past the jump from Year 1 to Year 2 and all of that. He has the weapons now, there is no Tom the Terrible in division anymore, the Jets have no offensive weapons, and the Dolphins are trying to cash in draft picks.

Not at all. Beane understands this. Outside of some nostalgia for veterans past their prime, Beane was correct on Dareus, correct on Watkins, has improved the skill position players (from the disastrous 2018 which he admitted), the offensive line is better and deeper, he hit on Milano and Edmunds and so forth. He has doubled down on getting Allen help by trading for Diggs in his prime with contract. So its not doom and gloom, the reality is the team is ready to win and needs Allen to lead from the front. It shouldn't be all on the defense to not allow more than 16 ppg so that the Bills can win 17-16. Allen did show improvement, but to the OP, 2020 is a huge year, not a throwaway year.

We see the Allen that handled the Cowboys on Thanksgiving more often? I feel much better. We see Josh Allen against the Titans, where the Bills have to hang on for dear life more often? I'm looking for playmakers, elsewhere on the offense and at QB.

I agree with all this. Beane and McDermott have built their culture, hand selected Allen for his tools, leadership, etc. But ... Aren't these the same Football Men/Coaches who tell the fans the following all the time: 1. The Jump from Year 1 to Year 2 2. Taking all the reps in OTAs 3. Not looking over your shoulder in Training Camp 4. Continuity with the OC, QB Coach and scheme 5. Gelling with the offensive line 6. Getting more weapons 7. Seeing the same team multiple times 8. Playing a full 16 games 9. Can't evaluate a draft until 3 years 10. Hitting an NFL weight room 11. Reviewing the tape and correcting mistakes 12. Supporting with a strong running game 13. Don't want to take away aggressiveness by over emphasizing turnovers 14. Respect the football The Bills have provided all of these things, to go with a defense that gives the Bills offense chances. As far as Trent, Fitzpatrick, Taylor, I mention them because the conversations among fans sound the same. More time in the system, need better weapons, needs a better line, needs Coaches who don't overemphasize turnovers. The Bills have nothing behind Allen, and nothing in the pipeline. He has to work. But I remain unconvinced that 2020 can look like 2019 without loss of some faith in Allen by Bills fans and the FO. The Bills just traded the 1st Round pick to help Allen more. If it doesn't happen in Year 3, then it doesn't mean it won't happen in Year 4, but I don't see anyway that the statistics on a sudden uptick would increase.

But what ammo do you really have? Allen finished 30th in passing yards per game, tied for 21st in TD passes, 25th in average, 24th in QBR, 19th in Rating, 32nd in completion percentage, and his offense scored 19 ppg, good for 23rd in the league. What fans generally have is, he's young, he's raw, his weapons aren't good enough. But keep in mind, the Bills had a defense that finished 2nd in points allowed at 16.2, and played what turned out to be a easy schedule. So yes, there was improvement, and yes the Bills did make the Playoffs. But it's pretty clear that Allen must improve in 2020, because the defense is only going to play at this level for a finite amount of time. The Seahawks, who led the league in defensive points against for 4-5 years in a row are an outlier.

But regardless of how much we like Josh as a hard worker, it needs to be noted that Bills fans were saying the same things about Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyrod Taylor. All three of them plateaued, didn't get better, and thus didn't get a 4th year (except Nix/Gailey keeping Trent around for the first two games of 2010).

Shaw66 - One of the things that needs to be stated is, if this isn't a make or break year in your mind for Allen, and it can be further down the road in 2021 or beyond, then the assumption being made is that the defense continues to be near the top of the league in points per game allowed. Because if Allen stats plateau around 3,000 yards, 20 TDs and 60% completion, then the assumption I'm making is we aren't scoring many more points. So the game flow has to go the same way, tight 19-16 wins. But that's another year on Hyde, Poyer, another year older for Hughes, Addison, and the Bills will need to extend Tre and keep Milano. So that's why I can't justify a throwaway year for Allen. He needs to get better relative to the league, not just his rookie self. We're past measuring him against the raw prospect he was. The investment has been made, the defense is good right now.

Definitely should be reachable targets: + 1.2% completion 190 ypg to 240 ypg +4 passing TD’s +5 points in QB rating I also would like to see some games over 300 yards passing. The Bills gave him 46 attempts in Houston. Those numbers would place Allen at the upper end of a game manager QB, meaning the game script would require Bills defense to clamp down on the opponent and keep points at 18 and below. A measurement that needs improvement is offensive ppg. Last year the Bills scored 19 ppg. The defense allowed 16 ppg. And in the biggest games, Patriots x2, Ravens, Texans, the Bills offense came up one TD short with drives at the end of the game to win. Four more passing TDs from Allen would be +2 ppg and that would give the defense a little more wiggle room to allow 18 ppg (assuming similar rushing TDs per for the whole team).

Right now it’s Mahomes in the AFC and Russell Wilson in the NFC. There have been so many QBs to come into the league recently and they all are starting: Murray, Allen, Jackson, Mayfield, Darnold, Jones, Haskins, Lock, and now Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love.

IMO I don’t need a bruiser as a change of pace to Singletary. In fact, if you gave me another mid-round back that could make people miss and be a threat out of the backfield, that’s better than a one dimensional straight forward, plow ahead runner with no shake. Give me another 5’7” 200 pounder like Singletary. As long as they’re a playmaker.

I think we do, the Bills need more playmaking, more speed on the field. Yeldon didn’t play last year because Beane said the Bills wanted the downhill thumping of Gore on the field. Freeman has battled concussions, so I automatically rule him out, with Lamar Miller people were always waiting for a breakout that never happened, Hyde and Crowell have put up the best numbers recently. But why pay them, when a 3rd Rounder like Singletary comes in, immediately takes LeSean McCoy‘s job and is the starter going forward? Draft another guy who is fresh, 22 years old, and ready to make plays instead of slow plodders who have peaked. Their best football is in front of them, so no need to hope for a fountain of youth. The Bills model of guys like Tolbert, Ivory, Gore, holds back better playmakers. I’d avoid 28-30 year old running backs like the plague.

You see it in basketball more frequently, it seems like when veterans have to start changing teams at the end of their careers it’s about done. Maybe he has some Favre magic.

How do you think he does with the Colts in 2020?

Shaw66 and jrober38, this is a point that I have maintained as well when fans throw out things like Jim Kelly's second year compared to Allen's second year, or Joe Montana completed 61% of passes. John Elway eclipsed 4,000 yards once in 16 years and never had a 30 TD season, and only 6/16 times went over 20 TD's passing. The statistical bar is higher now that 1992. Back in the day, 3,000 yards and 20 TD's passing, you were a solid NFL QB. Nowadays, that puts you in the Bottom 10 as far as passers. What I don't understand is what a team like the Colts are doing? Why are they paying a washed up Rivers for a year? To do what? He is clearly declining. In Buffalo, we thumb our noses at Jameis Winston, but really are you capped anymore with him than Allen? I think he's being undervalued. Cam looks shot, he peaked, his best days are over. Winston's decision making is poor, but he makes things happen and his passing stats would almost assuredly be better than Allen's. His defense allowed 28 ppg, the Bills defense allowed 16 ppg. So jrober38's points make you think, do you pay Allen a mega contract, or do you try and do better? For that reason 2020 is the year for Allen. He doesn't get a free year to plateau.

I started a response to this earlier. I think that's the reputation with Cousins. When the lights of Primetime come on, he shrinks away. That's why that Saints win is so impressive. Dalton has a similar reputation. I think it's difficult. One team wins the Super Bowl every year. So everyone else falls short of the goal. With Cousins you have a guy who is 31 years old, and you're trying to project whether he can win you a Super Bowl. Generally, you would think he is as good now as as he's ever going to be, and some of his core is being chipped away with the Diggs trade and Emerson G hanging out there.

They would have to trade their 2021 1st Rounder. Because #54 isn't high enough to package with 3rd/4th Rounders.

It can work, you need a strong offensive line, a QB that doesn't turn the ball over, and a defense that can hold opponents to under 16 points per game. It's a hard way to win though. Showing up on Sunday and hoping to run over your opponent. The Titans got far with it, the Ravens are dynamic with it, the Bills lead the league in rushing during the Rex days but didn't have the defense to fall back on.

You’re right, it’s not common, when something like this has happened before, Rodgers drafted while Favre was on the roster, or Manning leaving Indianapolis, the incumbent was in their late 30’s, and it was clear that the end was in sight. The Bengals may be the most similar. They had a QB that has had good statistical seasons and made the Playoffs 5-years in a row, but their roster maxed out when their secondary started to get old, and they let Marvin Jones and M Sanu walk in the same free agency, along with Whitworth on the offensive line because he was getting too old ala London Fletcher.

The Cowboys cooked themselves. They paid Elliott top dollar and just paid Amari Cooper. So now it makes no sense to start over with a cheap rookie. Jones is obviously trying to follow the Ailman, Emmitt, Irvin model. I read on PFT that Dak won’t participate in offseason activities until he has a new deal. Like he’s done anything to deserve being the highest paid NFL player ever.

I just think in practice, it's ingrained in NFL culture, that once you find a guy who is competent, you stick with that QB until the end of the line. Also, this isn't the 1980's and 1990's where there were just 5 guys. Now you have an expansive group in the middle that are competent, with teams that are all in various stages of team building. Kyler Murray, Prescott, Mayfield, Goff, Carr, Wentz, Cousins, Darnold, Mayfield, Watson, Stafford, Ryan, that have all shown the ability to start and win games. Should the Ravens be concerned about whether teams will catch up to Lamar Jackson? Or should they just go all-in to get a better team around him. Rodgers hasn't been to a Super Bowl since 2011, but is Green Bay going to make a move to find his replacement? The places with starting slots open is few in the NFL right now. Even the Jaguars, are they going to move off Minshew for a higher rated rookie? Is that Doug Marrone's style? No, his style is to stick with a safe known and try to build the team around that player.

Well those guys put up numbers, so teams feel they either pay, or it becomes an ugly standoff. So they buckle and pay them. But Dak, Wentz and Goff are young enough that you can't totally know their peak yet so you are forced to pay. Especially the Rams, they have no draft picks. So there is no drafting competition for Goff. And the Eagles are depleted from the their Super Bowl run at WR, and their defensive line is getting older. Out of the three, the Cowboys could stand their ground with Dak and say win more than one Playoff game.

When teams like the Colts are convinced Rivers will win a Playoff game or take their franchise anywhere, I don't see the NFL adopting a progressive view on this for awhile. The Titans, as far as they went last year, cling to Tannehill and Henry to try and recapture the magic of 2019. Would the Panthers be better trying to get a rookie QB or paying Bridgewater a ton of money? NFL teams seem to take known commodities, even if they are average at the QB position, and don't move off them in practice.

1. While reality may prove this true as seasons go by, I think GM's are slow to come around to new ways of thinking (Dave Gettleman is still an NFL GM in 2020). The chase has been on since Marino, Elway, Favre, Manning, watching Brady win 6-Super Bowls, for teams to not operate out of fear of trying to find the guy. And you can see that once a team finds a starter, they hang onto that starter forever - the Lions are not willing to move off Stafford, the Bengals were not willing to move off Dalton until their team imploded, the Chargers kept trying with Rivers year after year, the Vikings are going again with Kirk Cousins, the Cowboys feel they have no choice but to pay for Dak Prescott. Matt Ryan and the Falcons peaked for one year, but they will not move off him until he's 40. 2. Agree. I think its almost certain that is what McDermott and Beane wanted a Cam clone. Josh is 6'5" 230 with an arm. Buddy Nix wanted the textbook Quarterback as well, that's the reason he gave for not drafting 6'0" Russell Wilson. After the 2018 Draft, Beane was telling the radio stations (WGR) that Allen's athleticism allowed RPO like Cam, and Newton's name would pop up in Bills conferences. And we've seen a constant stream of ex-Panthers coming to Buffalo. Difference is, Cam won a National Championship, went #1 overall, and has won an NFL MVP, and since Michael Vick, the holy grail of QB has been find the guy who can pass and run. This was the crux of the argument to draft Allen in the first place. His scouting reports indicated middling production in lower level D1 and accuracy issues, so it was the classic "tools" verses a "raw" prospect. If Allen could fix the accuracy and develop a feel for the game. But he would be a statistical outlier to overcome these things. 3. Yes, it has become the new version of how the NFL Draft used to be. Where the incoming class would have to break all the guaranteed money that the previous class negotiated for. And teams have largely bent to the will of the players. From reports Dak is incredulous, as to why he is not the highest paid QB right now. Even though several rookies in the last few years have come right in and become middle of the road starters immediately.

I’ve read the back and forth opinions in this thread and have concluded this is a make or break year for Allen. We are past the “raw coming out of college” disclaimers now. He has started 28 games. We are past the perceived performance e bonuses of taking all the OTA reps as the starter, not looking over shoulders anymore, the Jump from Year One to Year Two, another year “in the system”, time to “gel” with offensive lineman, continuity with the OC and QB Coaches and lockeroom culture. All of those things have already happened. The Bills don’t have the highest skill position talent in the league, but all their starters have defined roles at the NFL level. 2019 was the last year where the bar of improvement was a comparison to his rookie self. He now needs to improve relative to his peers now. Brady is gone, Diggs has been traded for, the 2019 rookies are here. As much as the natural learned reaction as a Bills fan is don’t expect too much, “enjoy the ride”, next year is the real year, three years to judge a draft, the reality is once again we as fans are left to feel good about a close loss in Houston. Once again feel good about the Rudy Ruetigger story, the almost story, be happy with the growth of a 10 win year. Bottom line is we lost another game that we should have won. Maybe this is a belief in the Coaches/GM and Allen, but I can’t accept morale victories anymore. We need points, we need wins, we need to break a 25 year Playoff win drought, this year, not in 2021.

What we haven’t seen any Bills QB do in 15 years is break through the game manager type numbers 10 TDs - 24 TDs, 2500 yards - 3400 yards. We’ve seen a lot of 180 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int type games, where not throwing picks is the most important attribute of a good game. Break out of that mode.