Straight Hucklebuck

I think you consistently underrate talent, and overrate Coaching. You need the depth and you need the talent. To do that, you need to draft well, and manage the cap, and get active on Day one of free agency instead of doing what Nix said - sleeping. To me, McDermott is a buttoned up Coach and all that, works hard, but Beane has engineered trades and FA acquisitions that have improved the talent base. I've also pointed out that competitive or not, fire or not, veteran or not, they've had some serious missteps. Gore, Ivory and Tolbert are all the same guy. Old broken down running backs who play the physical style McDermott wants. McDermott ducked responsibility when asked if he regretted the decision to push Peterman as the starter over Tyrod, whereas, Beane took responsibility for not doing more on the skill positions and made up for it with the Diggs trade. Now, the Bills still go after old broken down veterans like Greg Olsen and Josh Norman. But largely, Beane has pushed the roster to have talent and depth. You let Lawson and Phillips walk, you replace with Butler, Addison and Jefferson, and draft Epenesa. Its not me not understanding the process. It's you and I fundamentally disagreeing with why the Bills are better. I give more of the credit to Beane. I think management of the roster and cap is better. So far we don't have the stories about Overdorf circumventing Beane to cut players, or the Bills not paying market price for LTs. I think McDermott is cut from the same cloth as Jauron. He knows his defensive system and wants to win tight games 17-13. Now is he organized, yes. Notebook in hand, yes. Knows defense, yes. Sets a high bar of expectation, yes. You and I disagree about the impact of coaching verses talent. You think its Coaching. I think its talent. It's hard to find definitive proof that the Bills outwork/out compete their opponents in a meaningful way. Every Coach in this league says their team is working hard. Without the talent and depth, you don't have this spirit of competition flowing through the team.

And depth. The Drought Bills (and even the first two years under McDermott) were thin. If guys went down, you were starting practice squad players and guys off the street. Doing what the Dolphins did this year in the draft - trade their starting LT, draft his replacement, trade your best WR, draft his replacement. Instead of Whaley's "dust settler" guys, Beane actually fills the roster with a variety of replacements.

But the Bills have always been this team right? The little engine that could, the try-hard band of misfits. That's all Dick Jauron talked about. A broken record of working hard, studying the tape, correcting mistakes. Doug Marrone was the same way. "Earning the right to win". Brandon pitched him as an innovator, instead he a task-master. He'd seen it all, he'd done it all, and he was happy to tell you that. McDermott has largely said the same things. McDermott and Beane came in and gutted the old Whaley guys - Watkins wasn't competitive, Dareus never gave you fully committed professional vibes, Cordy Glenn, Reggie Ragland, the Ronald Darby trade. But in their places they tried to put in the veterans they felt comfortable with, guys like Jordan Matthews, Kelvin Benjamin, Chris Ivory, Joe Webb, Mike Tolbert, Derek Anderson, Vontae Davis. I think largely those moves blew up in their faces. They inherited Kyle Williams, Beane wasn't here when Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer were signed, Lorenzo Alexander. The real change I have seen is McDermott willing to go for it on 4th Down more, pass it more. I think the Bills finally have a FO that understands it takes talent to win in the NFL. Rex Ryan thought he could line up and run over people with the run game. That's 1981 football. The Bills invested in a young quarterback and have largely drafted better under Beane, and so you actually have some young players who are good on this team, and have been aggressive in the draft, FA, and trades. Beane has also managed the cap well, the extra cap space gained has been used to add bodies to the offensive line and improve the skill position players. They moved off Jeremy Kerley, Kelvin Benjamin, promoted Levi Wallace. Now they still have tendencies to fall back into the pattern - Frank Gore was this, trying to sign Greg Olsen was this, Josh Norman is this to some degree. But for the most part, the Bills can practice what they preach about competition, because they actually have a roster with a mix of veterans and skilled younger players. The Bills aren't delusional anymore about what it takes to win. It takes talent and depth. Unlike Marv Levy as GM and Buddy Nix, we have a GM that realized you have to get your own franchise QB (not take other teams backups and try to luck into a QB) and draft well.

The Bills backups over the years have been: Brian Brohm, Levi Wallace, Jeff Tuel, Tyler Thigpen, Nate Peterman, Thad Lewis, Cardale Jones, Kyle Orton, Derek Anderson. Our current backup depending on point of view has thrown 0 NFL passes, or a is a guy who has thrown a combined 10 TDs and 21 Ints. To thumb our noses up at Cam Newton is pretty amazing. If Cam needs a complete rebuild, then our backups have been T-Boned on railroad tracks.

It's Allen, not dropped passes. Last year the Bills would have met the same fate as Houston. This year, if Allen plays like last year, the team will be held back. They are playing a more difficult schedule, and can not bank on the defense holding teams to 16.2 ppg, while the offense scores 19.6 ppg.

Mahomes is on a different planet in terms of his vision. He sees everything. Every play that's available to be made. Cam is a good gauge, he peaked and broke down, but really had some huge rushing numbers (and really decent passing numbers) for awhile. No surprise that Beane and McDermott think Allen is a Cam-esque type player. And you know that because the day after the 2018 Draft Beane was talking about Allen doing designed runs like Cam. His stature is also not a coincidence. Wilson is a superior passer and has elite game IQ, and so he has managed his running. We'll see with Allen, maybe the rushing goes up. But he did take his first concussion last year.

Nailed it.

You know what I was saying. If Allen went out and threw for 4,000 yards and 28 TDs, there would be no more questions about whether he could do it. That's what I'm saying. If he does a moderate improvement, 3,400 yards, 23 TDs, we may be in the same boat next year saying, can this offense score enough to really win, can Allen be good enough? Nobody expects 5,000 yards, 50 TDs. Nobody is expecting 4,500 yards and 35 TDs. Reality will be probably be in the mid-3000's with 25ish TDs. Hopefully, that's good enough to get a Playoff win. That's as high of a bar as I could see.

Does this sound familar GoBills808: "Saying half was clearly hyperbole (probably should have made that clearer for your benefit), but your 16/7% is so oddly specific that you'd almost think 9/36 wasn't actually 25%. Remind me to shoot myself in the face if you ever find me trolling another team's messageboard after the Bills win the Superbowl lmfao" But once again, our GM and HC chose that. They determined Allen was worth trading up for, so you only get the project protection for so long. Beane has done his part on the roster.

This a good statistical breakdown, thanks for putting in the work to present. I don't know if I fully buy the dual athlete QB argument simply because we haven't seen that mode of play work for a QB for an extended period of time. Eventually the hits pile up, or the supporting cast changes and it forces the Quarterback into the pocket more often, but so far, if Allen is chipping in with 8-9 rushing TDs/game, then yes it's a boost. Part of the run game lack of TD production was Allen vulturing four TDs from 1-yard out, that took away those simple plunges. I agree on the run game. McDermott has had it in his head that he needs to "establish" a physical run game. So we've been treated to guys on their last legs like Mike Tolbert, Chris Ivory and Frank Gore. Thankfully, they have pivoted from the old veteran in the positional group at RB and just went younger across the board.

You know I always had a theory a long time ago that things would get better over time - movies, music, sports, because you have years of data piling up to see what works and what doesn't. Instead, the opposite is true. The movie industry continues to remake the superior originals, music is worse and trending down, and instead of clean, simple jersey's, you have teams like the Jaguars that trot out two tone helmets in the 2010's, the Sabres with their dark blue jerseys, the Jets and Falcons and Browns all getting uglier, the Dolphins logo took a massive step backwards years ago, the Bucs jerseys somehow got even worse. These look like high school jerseys, or the college version of the LA Rams. Bills can we please go back to the red end zones, and 1990 uniforms please? That's why you have staples - the Lakers reverting back to their uniforms, the Yankees, the Steelers, the 49ers simplified their jerseys years ago and they look better, the Rangers, the Bruins and so on.

100% Agree.

Well since you bashed Bill yesterday for speaking in hyperbole. I guess I can throw it right back at you. It's not like that is the firm line that will be accepted. It's more like what season would put the questions away. 3,300 yards and 22 TDs is borderline (that's Gardner Minshew as a rookie). He probably needs something like 3,600 yards and 25 TDs. Something that gets you out of 193 ypg and 1.5 TDs game. Allen was 23rd in yards (30th in ypg), 32nd in completion percentage, 24th in rating and tied for 21st in TDs. He has to get out of the bottom third because we all know you can't count on elite defense carrying over year and year. What the 2012-2015 Seahawks did was the exception to the rule.

One minute he delivered us to the Playoffs (have to acknowledge a weak schedule and a defense that allowed 16.2 ppg), the next minute he's still raw. Yes we made the Playoffs. But just like the 10-3 loss in Jacksonville, it's a moral victory because it's another game that we should have won, but couldn't score enough points. Practice time should be over in 2020. He'll once again have any starter reps that may come in a TC, he'll cross the 32 games started mark, he'll have the same HC and OC for 3 years, improved skill players, same offensive line. I think Allen gets romanticized around here too much. Yes, the moments were awesome - Cowboys on Thanksgiving, his peak, the clincher against the Steelers on SNF - great to silence those fans, the no interception streak. But if he is a Franchise QB, there shouldn't have to be disclaimers anymore. Nobody is demanding Super Bowl titles. The highest bar I could set is just getting one Playoff win. But we romanticize his standing in the league and exaggerate his improvement. If he goes out and throws for 4,000 yards and 28 TDs, then we're on our way. That's what we have to see from Allen. In 1990, 3,000 and 20 TDs was a solid year. That's bottom tier NFL starter now.

The old EJ Manuel sliding scale. Well the plan wasn't for him to start right away (well Kevin Kolb and Nate Peterman aren't real plans, so...) Well he doesn't have a full 16 games yet (Allen hurt in 2018) Well Allen didn't have the OTA reps, not looking over his shoulder in Training Camp, 2nd year in the system, an OLine that has "gelled", another year with the OC Well he doesn't have a full 32 games yet Allen gets 2018 from me. He was a rookie, with dreadful skill positions, a poor offensive line, and a Coaching staff that wanted to win games 17-13. In 2019, he got improved weapons, at least to an NFL standard, a better line, a second year in the same system with the same OC and all the reps in OTAs and TC. In 2020, he needs to make the jump from a game manager, to a difference maker on the NFL scale, not just in comparison to his Wyoming or 2018 rookie self. There have been ideas around here that 2021 is the real year, but we all know that in sports, you better win when you have the chance. You're not guaranteed to keep bringing the same team back again.

If Allen can bolster his passing numbers by running or 8-9 TDs every year, then great. I just don't know if that is sustainable. If it's not, then the passing numbers have to improve or he's in the bottom 5 of the league. As long as the Bills offense scores more points, that's the most important.

The reason the Trubisky comparison is made on PFF is because of his development in Year 2. If Allen goes out and has Trubisky’s year 3, he’ll be facing camp competition in 2021. I already said outright I’d take Allen right now over Trubisky, but Bears fans thought they had something too before last year started.

The Bills offense scored 19.6 ppg with Allen under center, a weak schedule, and a defense that allowed 16.2 ppg. So it's not insane to question whether Allen is a budding superstar. I get it, we all like that he works really hard, loves Buffalo, comes from a small school, is an underdog. But I am not convinced that the Bills will ever have a top flight offense with him under center because he's never shown that in college or so far in the pros. 2020 will be his best circumstances yet.

If he can keep up 8-9 rushing TDs per year then by all means. Usually, as a career goes on the rushing starts to trail off, but maybe not with Allen. The Scouting Reports have been pretty accurate on Allen through two years. It's not slander or something. He is a 190 ypg passer 1 TD, 0.5 Int and 0.5 TD rushing. Hopefully he goes out and has 4,000 yards, 28 TDs and throws for 250 yards per game. He does that and all these hypothetical comparisons will go away.

If Allen was to keep up The conclusion I take away from Allen's first two years are he has to keep running to be viable, or the Bills may not score more than 20 ppg on his arm. That's the concern. How Diggs affects that? Hopefully an uptick of 6-7 more passing TDs because he can get clean separation.

Its just a validation of the early conclusions on Allen: without his running, his not a viable starting QB. Mahomes has 76 passing TDs and 18 Ints in 31 games at a 303 ypg clip. We can get into how much sitting one year helped, Andy Reid, or his weapons, but he is in another galaxy from Allen as a passer. Mahomes first year as a starter he had a 1.79 TD factor over Allen.

Of course most fans around the league would take Allen. All I'm saying is its not some landslide, laughable, lopsided debate. Allen has been a bottom tier NFL passer since coming into the league. Now, stating again for the record, he had horrendous weapons in 2018 and was a rookie, so no hard judgement there. But let's be honest here, Allen did not show a Carson Wentz-esque improvement from Year 1 to Year 2 or anything. He got better relative to his rookie self and played to the positive side of his Scouting Reports.

Yeah we'll just ignore Trubisky's 2nd year with the 11-3 record and 95 QB rating. His fall off the cliff year is not that far from 2nd year Allen... Allen accounted for 0.625 more TDs per game that Trubisky in 2019.

Mitch threw for 17 TDs and 10 Ints, 3,138 yards, with 209 ypg and rating of 83.0. He ran for 2 TDs, 2 lost fumbles. Allen was 20 TDs and 9 Ints, 3,089 yards, at 193 ypg and a rating of 85.3. Josh ran for 9 TDs, 4 lost fumbles. This is not a country mile type separation here.

I would take Allen too, but it's not this landslide, no-brainer type question. We have the hindsight of knowing how Trubisky's 3rd year panned out, so he has two poor/mediocre years, with an improvement year sandwiched in the middle. Those critical of the Allen pick based on what they saw in college have not been proven wrong IMO. He displays the same traits as his Scouting Reports said he would, and so 2020 is really a gut check on whether he can overcome that. If he goes out in 2020 and the same year as he did in 2019, the Bills would be smart to get more competition. Which is the same as Trubisky faces now. So the direct comparison has less significance than what arc you project Allen's 3rd year to be.