Rochesterfan

You do realize CEH was no better than an undrafted RB they had on the roster. They could of gotten the same production from a running back taken anywhere in the draft. He also put up similar YPC and less yards per reception than Singletary and the same TDs as Moss - both of whom did it in shared time. I think CEH is the exact reason you do not draft a RB high. He was no more productive than our 3rd round pair and an undrafted guy on their team.

Unfortunately - the new TV contract money will not be seen until 2023 and even with fans returning to the stadium and the 17th game - the salary cap is not expected to rise significantly because they have nearly 30 million per team in lost revenue from last season to make up. The salary cap may not rise at all or only go up 8-10 million depending on how quickly the owners want to recoup the lost money. It will also have an impact on 2023, but the new TV deals will counter that.

I agree with a bunch of this, but I don’t blame the NFL - the players in KC complained and that caused the staff to put in the request. This is 100% on a few stupid players that want to go back to their college days.

I don’t disagree, but when they did have Tre on TEs last year and he struggled. Tre is not quite physical enough or big enough to cover TEs super effectively. Kelce is able to box out Tre and also go up for catches above him. Cool enjoy.

I’m not angry and I don’t ignore people. You stated you wanted to know about JOK and got a bunch of responses about David and people disagreeing with you - I am trying to explain why I have responded. I am responding to your title and then posts made within - sorry we disagree, but it is a reasonable response to what has been posted based upon your title and the previous discussion.

If you really wanted to know just about JOK - change the stupid name of you thread to what do you think of JOK and is he worth a trade up - take David right out of the title. Your title is what brings up David and what people are reacting to because it implies that TB did a better job at covering TEs than the Bills did. This is where everything goes wrong. The fact that TB was overall one of the worst teams at covering TEs in 2020 right near the bottom of the league with the Bills is a huge part of the issue. Issue 2 is that the 2018 and 2019 version of the Bills were highly effective using Edmunds and Milano at covering TEs - to the point that in 2018 they didn’t give up a TD and were tops in the league. So what we know is the Bills have been effective and struggled badly last year, but TB was just as bad at covering TEs to the point that they gave up more TDs in the regular season than the Bills did. So overall the issues is that you title the thread to compare JOK to David and then get mad when people point out facts about how poor the TB coverage was on TEs throughout the year - it isn’t necessarily a knock on David specifically - which is how Devin White got involved. You got the discussion you got because of that. It is obvious by the fact that the board choose JOK in the mock that people like him and think he would be a great addition. It is also equally obvious that many people think the 2 3rd round picks is way to expensive for him.

Look - I am sorry @NewEra but you have been getting owned and your responses have been all over the place. You tell us all how great David is in coverage and how bad Edmunds and Milano are, but the numbers show overall they LBs were targeted nearly evenly, gave up an average of 0.3 more catches to TEs per game or 4 more catches by TEs over the course of a season. the Bills gave up 2 yards per game more than the Bucs on average per game and the Bills gave up 1 TD less to the TE than the Bucs did during the regular season. Did Edmunds struggle this year - Yes! Is David a better coverage LB - Yes! Were the Bills duo of Edmunds and Milano part of the 2018 and 2019 defenses that were tops against TEs and in 2018 did not give up a TD to a TE - Yes! They have coverage ability as has been shown - they also both struggled in a very weird year. Your response that you watched it and know - is only an opinion. What I know is overall neither team did a good job of covering TEs. For Tampa a lot of the struggle was Devin White - he is great around the line, but the numbers back up he struggled in the passing game. Tampa also got better as the DLine started putting pressure on QBs - that in turn helps immensely with coverage. Watching Clips - you can see Edmunds (even in the AFCCG drop into his spot - if the pressure that Tampa had was happening - Kelce is covered, but Mahomes (and Rivers before him) had time - they freeze the LB with their eyes and allow the TE to find open space for catches. If Edmunds tries to follow the TE - it opens a spot up for a WR in his vacated area. The same thing happened to David in the Super Bowl. Plus go back and watch the Super Bowl - Kelce’s numbers were down, but he had at least 3 big time drops where he was open with David no place around him. The difference was the pressure turned Mahomes perfect throws into a throw that was a bit off and Kelce was a bit off all game. If he makes those “Knox” style drops as catches his numbers in the Super Bowl are closer to the AFCCG (maybe better in the end) - he didn’t make them - not because of David, but because of the pressure on Mahomes. I will say once again - If JOK is there at 30 or you have to jump to 27-28 with a 5th rd pick - I am happy with that. I am not giving up 2 additional 3rd round picks for him. I also think you over value what he would bring - the Bills play 90% nickel and I am not sure adding JOK changes that significantly. They play nickel because they do not want to get beat deep and are less afraid of teams running the ball than throwing it over the top. They invite teams to try and drive the ball methodically down the field. I get that you want them to change up and become a different defensive team, but I think McD is happy with that style and has been successful over his career with that defense. I could see JOK allowing more standard 4-3 alignments in 2022, but as a rookie I think he would be very limited to spot duty as is typical of how the team works rookies in.

I didn’t say we did fine - I said we were just as good as TB who you are comparing us to. Similar completion percentage, similar catches per game, similar TDs, and similar yards per game.

So if David is great in coverage and Edmunds and Milano can’t cover - my big question is: Why for the season did TEs (including all playoff games) average only 1 more catch and 10 yards more per game against the Bills than the Bucs? The Bills also only gave up 1 more TD to a TE than the Bucs. The difference between the teams in TE coverage was minor. It does not appear that the Bucs and David were significantly better - except in the one game that you are admitting the difference was the shattered OL for KC. Also in both of their first meetings the numbers were lower: TB - 8 catches 82 yards Buffalo - 5 catches 65 yards I think you have a significant observation bias based upon the AFC championship game and Super Bowl. If you just include the regular season the teams are even closer. Bucs - 5.4 catches a game 60 yards per game and 10 TDs to tight ends Bills - 5.7 catches a game 62 yards per game and 9 TDs to TEs Overall if you want coverage like David provided on TEs - it looks like Edmunds and Milano were just fine. If you want to say that in the biggest game of the year that David did better than Edmunds - yeah I agree, but you also acknowledged the pressure because of the OLine. So we are not comparing apples to apples. So I vote No in your poll because we already cover TEs as good as TB.

Depends upon the players we have. Do we get to utilize the players at the time or are we using our current talent? Schwartz defense worked because of the DLine we had at the time. That was a great DLine and allowed that defense to work. If Schwartz coached this collection of players as DC - it would be much less successful as the DLine doesn’t have the horses at DE to be effective. With the current players - a Tampa 2 zone scheme seems to be best fit - so I would vote McD if we are talking about current players only - although I believe it is only the 3rd best defensive scheme listed. The best DC was Phillips and he could probably get the most out of this collection also as he was a wiz at maximizing talent and scheme in his prime. He has been less successful in these later years even with supremely talented teams. Schwartz and McD are neck and neck - although I prefer the more aggressive Schwartz plans - as I said with this team it would be a failure. I want nothing to do with Williams 🤮, Pettine, Jauron, and especially Rex 🤮🤮🤮.

Unfortunately he is correct. It is a stupid unnecessary rule and actually they should restrict numbers more to assist the Refs with certain calls. This easily can lead to identification issues for how players line up and illegal versus legal blocks by position and location on the field. If each position group had 10-15 numbers with limited overlap - it would be fine. Preseason and training camp overlap numbers with camp fodder and let’s go.

Yes smokescreens can be used effectively- I believe that is what SF is doing. Do you really think this ruse is impacting other teams. They watched them trade from3 to 12 and then immediately trade back up to 6 giving up 1/2 of what they acquired. The 2 moves made perfect sense for a team knowing that with SF at 3 they will have a nice selection at 6. I don’t think them then floating the idea - we may move back from 6 helps them control anything. Unless they can get 8 to move up for another #1 - the ruse makes no sense because with 4 top non-QBs anything past 8 means you risk losing out. I actually think they played it fine, but the extra smokescreen is just a waste.

Thank you if that is the case! Appreciate the knowledge.

Maybe, but my understanding is if they pick up Allen’s 5th year option - that is worth 23 million next season. If then then extend him - the benefit is that they can actually spread some of the signing bonus into next year (most likely increasing his cap hit for next year, but lessening the cap hit going forward). I do not believe they can lessen his cap hit next year - the option is the minimum. At that point if they try to franchise tag Edmunds - his hit is 15 million (assuming it stays the same) - therefore by that logic the 2 5th year options would be 35 million, while a franchise tag (15), 5th year for JA (23), and a prorated 1 year of JA’s signing bonus (? - maybe 10 million if he got 50 million signing on a 4 year deal) equals a minimum of 38 million + what ever prorated signing bonus is added to next year. If Beane is struggling to get 35 in - then there would be almost no way to use the franchise tag as all that does is increase the cost. The benefits of having the tag for Edmunds is no commitment for 2022 - so you are not locked in and you are safe from injury. I just do not see the tag as a viable option (more of a threat) if they are worried about the 2 5th year options as the tag is more. Maybe I’m wrong and there is a way to lower JA’s cap hit next year with exercising the option - I just don’t think so. I think all they can do is use the option cost and any prorated signing bonus to help out in future years. The best use would be toexercise the option and get him signed this year and extend the signing bonus out over 2 extra years, but that will make it even tighter this year and next.

That is fine, but then why give back the assets to move to 6 originally. You got capital and then gave back capital to move back up - now you are looking for Detroit, Denver, or Carolina to move up to ensure you get one of those guys and you have to hope they are doing it for a QB. I understood the original 2 moves for that exact reason you mention. They have 4 guys and now the 1st 3 picks are QBs - 6 is perfect. You lose out on TE and either OL or 1 of the 2 receivers, but you are left with 2 guys. If you move back to 8 or 9 and you lose out on those 2 players - does the extra picks mean as much? At this point - I would not assume Detroit, Denver, or Carolina are moving for a QB.

If Pitts is what they wanted and felt he was by far the pick - then the trade down from 3 to 12 and back up to 6 was stupid. They were in position to ensure they get Pitts and moved on. If Atl takes Pitts and the Dolphins slide back - then the trade up early seems ill conceived. I totally agree this is all about ruses and lies - they are hoping another team moves up ahead of them for a QB - I just don’t see a real move back that helps long term and still gives you a quality player.

I totally agree - I also expect them to pick up Allen’s option either way because his option will be 10-15 million less per than than his final contract most likely - so I think that is a cheap value to add a year to any extension. I think the Bills hoped to get him settled and then work on Edmunds, but after the most recent press conference- you are correct he made it sound like the 2 5th year options might be to much. Therefore - (and I am only trying to think about this logically) - IF they want to keep Edmunds and they believe the 5th year options are to much, but they are definitely picking up Allen’s - to me logically maybe the order has had changed (or they are working on them simultaneously). Maybe they feel 12-15 million is to much for Edmunds - so they look to forgo the option and get him on a deal like Milano’s with money up front so he gets paid, but an annual salary that is acceptable next year with the expected shrunken CAP - that expands in 2023 when there is more space in play. If Beane is truly worried about the CAP next season and feels the 5th year option on Edmunds will be tough to squeeze in - then the franchise tag at +2.2 million (or more) will also be difficult - the only 3rd option to keep him around is an immediate extension. What we as fans do not know is what discussion has already taken place and what framework is set. Does Beane know what Edmunds is looking for and can it get done? Does Beane know that Edmunds price tag is outside what he wants and therefore they are really looking at LB with the 1st round pick and then trading Edmunds? Does Beane feel it is ok to take a risk and let the season play out with Edmunds as an impending FA - knowing he could get a deal done like Milano, Williams, and Feliciano - on the cusp of FA (especially with the tag still available)? The options are crazy - we just have limited knowledge of what the Bills plans are and what value they have assigned Edmunds (and he assigns himself).

Yes and the immediate answer is the Bills knew that was not good enough and moved on from Brown immediately. Why should this be different. If they were not at all happy with Edmunds - wouldn’t they of looked to switch it up and move him around to OLB or something? Wouldn’t they look for the veteran replacement and find a different spot for him - if he is as bad as people say. The pat answer is no - the Bills FO has pride and doesn’t want to look bad because he was a high draft pick, but they were not afraid to move and replace Cody Ford on the OLine - even bringing in a veteran replacement, they moved on from Zay Jones another high pick, other picks like Ray Ray McCloud were cut - so it appears the bills staff recognizes failure to produce what they want. Even so far as drafting Moss after drafting Singletary or bringing in Hollister to help Knox. The facts as we have it right now is that the Bills started Edmunds in year 1 at MLB and he had struggles and issues, but got better as the year went on. They put him back in the middle in year 2 and he had his best year and was a ProBowl alternate. Year 1 and 2 he was above average in pass defense including some Ints and TEs struggled mightily against the defense including no TDs in his first year. The Bills put him back in the middle in year 3 and he was an outright ProBowl selection at the end of the year. Another fact is that he struggles when DL get their hands on him - he can’t get away and make plays. What are opinions and thoughts seem to be that: Last year he struggled in coverage and against the run. We also know he was injured, but we will never know exactly how bad, but he missed a game and it seemed to affect him for several others. There are opinions that he is late and makes a lot of bad run fill reads and makes many tackles down field. The prevailing opinion, and maybe it is 100% correct, is that he never makes a big or important play. What we have seen from the Bills is that they must feel he is at least adequate at the job they are asking him to do. 3 years and they have not worked to replace him, bench him, or take him off the field. He plays just about the highest percentage of snaps on the defense of any player game after game - so they must not consider him to much of a liability. The Bills do seem to have qualms about what his value is because they have not outright picked up the option and very little has been said about an extension. Again the proof will be in the action - do they draft a guy like Collins to fill the MLB and move Edmunds around? Do they not pick up his option after the draft? Do the Bills tell us they are going to let him play out the season and we will decide his fate after the season? Do they give Klein more early snaps in the middle and just bring in Edmunds on passing downs? Does his number and percentage of snaps drop significantly? These will all tell us what they think. Right now every indication is that the Bills are fine with him as they have done nothing that limits his time on the field - through 3 FA periods and 2 drafts. They also did not indicate the option was off the table - just that they were waiting until after the draft - which could indicate something or could be a sign of the Bills working on some long term deals that might give the flexibility to use the option.

I agree his size makes it difficult to shed blockers and get into position to make tackles. I just think - especially in today’s NFL - the Bills are not really worried about the LBs being run stoppers. They just aren’t. The proof is in the scheme - 90+% of the time they are in nickle and have just Edmunds and Milano as LBs. Milano is really a glorified safety - so size and personnel wise - they just do not respect the running game as a viable threat. The scheme seems to be very DL driven to sop the run - as they ask the DEs to contain a lot and do not have the DTs shooting gaps. The LBs are there for passing presence and to clean up. The Bills are not playing an aggressive attacking defense and people should not expect the MLB to be aggressive and attacking in this style. The Bills defensive plans for the last 4 years are bend - don’t break. Keep things in front and force check downs, short passes, and runs and make teams move down the field in long drives. They will make a mistake and then you can attack in certain situations like 3 rd and long. I think fans conflate his play with what the team concept is. They want him attacking, but the team wants him thinking pass first. Around the league - he seems to garner respect for his play, but there are times where both he and the defense are to passive and that allows gameplans to focus on moving him or waiting. If you watch things like the KC game - he is in position o defend specific passing windows and the Chiefs just wait and hit secondary windows. We watched Josh do it all year to other teams, but ignore it from ours.

He has been to 2 ProBowls, but as he was an alternate that does not count for 5th year option. So the difference will be 2.2 million. I disagree as I think 2.2 million (or essentially 2 nearly 3 vet minimum players) is a big deal. I do agree the 12.7 might not be tenable, but then the 15 million for the tag would be really untenable. And yes you take a small risk, but an injury can occur any time - ask Feliciano that popped his pec. It is a small risk for what I think is significant money. I will wait and let them determine how they want to proceed. Edmunds was hurt early in the season and struggled when Milano was out and the Bills were trying to figure out the LB situation. Later in the year - with Milano back and his shoulder better - he played well enough and the defense as a unit played way better. He has a long way to go, but he is a top end LB and although like RB - MLB is a lesser valued position - his role is not as simple to fill as we saw when Milano was out. I don’t think he is a great MLB, but I don’t think you easily find a replacement level - which is why this draft will be interesting. Do they draft another young LB to put some pressure or not. In the end the actions will speak to how they really feel.

My big disagreement with this is if you use the 5th year option - you get him this year and then next year at mid 12 versus the Franchise tag of 15 for next year. You save about 3 million for a small risk. Additionally that gives you the franchise tag for 2023 at the lowest price - gives the Bills some leverage in negotiations and potentially 3 years. If the Bills forgo the 5th year option and then use the franchise tag - they pay more and they are not going to franchise him more than once as the increase puts him as a top paid LB in the NFL level. My gut feeling is they are working with Tremaine and are hoping to sign him to an extension below the 5th year option level - that gives him money up front now and extends his rookie deal, but keeps his price tag a little lower. They may even use the 5th year option, but if they do not pick it up - I think it is because they have the frameworks of a deal.

Really - Bills fans would be looking at a 2x ProBowl player on another team and saying this guys sucks? My guess is Bills fans would look quickly at the stats, the ProBowls, his age, his measurables and they would be drooling for Beane to find a way to get him in here. Heck they drooled for guys like Hassan Reddick that basically did nothing for multiple years and finally in his contract year put double digit sack numbers. Prior to that his sacks were on par with Edmunds and he is an OLB. His tackles were significantly less and he was a fraction of the player Edmunds is. My guess is people say Edmunds sucks because they want a huge run stuffing MLB and the Bills defense doesn’t set up that way - so Edmunds is the blame. He is not perfect and he makes mistakes, but there is a far more likely chance that we downgrade in replacing him than most people think.

Agreed - so then why trade back down a second time. If someone is moving up to get a QB ahead of Detroit or Denver - you are dropping back to the teens and outside of the top tier guys. You picked up a good haul dropping back to 12 and then gave away more than 1/2 to move back up to 6. The net acquired by Miami was less than a single trade from 3 to 6, but the 2 trades put them in position to still get a top guy and acquire a 1st rd pick a ways out. I just do not understand the smokescreen given to move back down again - if that is even a remote though process - the move back up from 12 to 6 was stupid and worthless.

Yes they are, but to be in that position they had to trade back up and gave away a top pick. If they then trade back down - at least to me - it means the FO got out thought. They moved back early to let a team get a QB and moved up early for obviously someone (I think Pitts). If they don’t get that guy and have to trade down - that is a huge blunder as the guy would of been there at 3. They got extra picks, but if it costs them an elite tiered player then they totally botched the draft. The extra picks in the middle or later part of the round help build depth, but the top tiered guys are usually in the top 5. The Dolphins get lucky with a plethora of QBs - some elite talent will fall to 6, but they need to grab it.

I don’t think Shanny or Lynch are in any trouble no matter what happens this year or next year. That Ownership wants them to be successful and will give them longer than they should. I think they get this QB and 2-3 full years to see if the QB works. Whether they start him day #1 or let Jimmy G play out the year and start him for year #2. The only way I see them getting canned early is if they moved up and they draft a position other than QB (not happening) and a QB they could of drafted becomes a rising star. Myself - I think the Mac Jones hype is a smoke screen. I think he is good, but they could of gotten him with a small move up. The move to 3 puts added pressure and I think it comes down to Fields and Lance. I think Fields is the safer choice and within that scheme can flourish, but Lance to me has the higher upside and most room for growth - especially in a stable situation. With Jimmy G in place and a ton of weapons - I would favor the bigger risk of Lance - especially after they saw JA personally destroy their DC with things that only a few guys could do. Lance also is more of an under center guy and that helps immensely in the Shanny offense.