Rochesterfan

Yeah - it stopped at 0 - didn’t get the pick last year. Also he was wrong on Farley. Whoops.

Who is the stud RB - you have 2 guys that are being looked at as late 1st rd picks for a reason. ETN is faster, but still not elite RB speed and has been way overused. He is a lesser RB than Harris and can’t catch or block as well. Harris is an excellent RB in the mold of other recent Alabama RBs like the guys 2 guys in NE that neither are a difference maker. If he was faster than ETN then he might be a stud, but he is barely faster than Moss - he is not a break away threat - he is a pound the rock 25 times and hit him on a few screens. I just think both of these guys (and running backs in general) are use them up commodities and having the 5th year option doesn’t help much as that is typically more than if you pick up a street FA.

I think the truth is that there is no position in this draft that changes much of anything. You want a different outcome - let’s play it out with an easier schedule this year, maybe all 5 of our WRs are injured with broken fibula’s and torn oblique muscles. There are lots of ways to impact outcomes - a late first round pick should not be the difference. The Bills are in a great position - the team and the staff are learning and growing together. Let the season progress and just draft a guy that will be with the team long term - therefore unless he is by far the best value - avoid a RB as the difference between a late 1st round guy, an undrafted guy, and a guy you can pick up mid season - is fairly minor as was shown by KC last year.

I guess based on the last few Mocks - I think CB is the pick. Hoping for Newsome with his elite speed. That brings us full circle back to Tre’ White and the first pick. I think they will keep the rotation going.

I just don’t think Harris is a generational back - he is more Josh Jacobs, Sony Michel, Damien Harris, line of backs. Good players but nothing special - I just don’t think he has the speed to be elite. I think he could be good, but he will need a ton of touches to get into huge pack of JAGS between 800 - 1000 yards.

I don’t doubt he has some connection - especially in the Denver camp, but he just has not been right about Buffalo. I would of love to see what happened if Oliver wasn’t there - I don’t think there was any way Wilkins was the choice - if Oliver had gone to Detroit. I think he was flat out played by guys feeding him false info. The Allen pick - there was lots of talk on the board about Allen for 2 months leading up to the draft. It was debated over and over. I give him credit for sticking to his guns and I believe he got some info from Denver about the pick. The Oliver selection was a draft with a ton of DLine 5 of the top 9 picks were along the DLine and 10 of the top 20 picks. Fully half of the top 20 picks were DLine. It was not a shock that the Bills were looking DL. Again on the board it was debated which guy drops - was it going to be Williams, Allen, or Oliver with the pick. The big question was if Detroit went DL would we draft the TE instead. Last year did he really step out on a limb - the top receiver class ever and he says we are in on a receiver - He was not in the know on the Diggs trade as that was broken nationally. That also occurred over a month before the draft. The guy we actually drafted later - he totally whiffed on. My point is maybe he knows, but based upon his history - he has no more knowledge than ICB used to have. Beane tends to set his team up over a year in advance with an eye on what positions have a ton of value. I am expecting the Bills to continue that trend and draft a CB as that is a deep and talented position. We will see as mine is just a guess based on what we have seen in history, but based upon what Beane has said and done - I just don’t think ETN is the pick. CB/DB is the one position he has not signed anyone at, it is a deep and talented position with likely a few guys dropping, it is a position that we are set for starters - so the pick can be more long term, a guy like Newsome has elite speed to match up with KC, it all just matches and works how they have operated - draft youth on D early - (CB, LB, DT, DE - top picks over last 4 years) now it falls back to CB again.

His claim is that he was on Buffalo and Allen. The issue is if you go beyond - he didn’t have Edmunds. In a great DL draft - he had us with DL - just not the right pick - I believe he had us with Wilkins not Oliver. Then in the best WR draft in history - he had us with a WR - he missed out on us trading for Diggs a month before the draft. Our actual 1st pick in AJ - he had mocked to NE in round 1. So in the last 5 picks - he got Allen - big points and nothing else of note. Not exactly a high percentage, but if you read his tweets - he went after a guy and claimed he has been right 5 straight picks.

I think you can already say no to CEH also. The guys drafted outside the Top 10 are all just Jags at this point. The guys in the top 10 have some play, but other than McCaffrey - none of them are worth the second contracts or what they are paid and I am not sure McCaffrey - as good as he is - makes a lick of difference to a teams outcome.

I think Carolina now feels they have a real shot at Fields - something they did not feel a few weeks ago. I think Fields to Carolina. NE - I think has a shot at Mac Jones.

There is just no way he does anything close to that. McD as a coach limits significantly the rookies because the NFL season is longer and more intense. He has tended to give them very little responsibility until week 5 or 6 - so the season is closer to the college season. With RBs in particular- the expectation that he can run correct routes, but more importantly pick up blitzes when needed - especially in play action scenarios is crucial and ETN is a bad, bad blocker. I would expect very limited play out of ETN even if drafted because they will not trust him in the backfield. He will see some time spread out, but I don’t think they will use him as much as people think based upon their history.

I don’t really trust Allbright to know much of anything going on. He claims to have been right about the last several Bills drafts, but then had to clarify it was position because our 1st pick last year he mocked to NE about 3/4 of a round earlier. He also was the guy that said the Brown trade was done before that was done and when it was still preliminary. I think he has a “source” and the Bills only feed him the crap they want out. He was on the Josh Allen pick, but so were a bunch of other guys as draft day approached because it became more widely known Mayfield was going to Cleveland, and therefore Darnold to the JETS and that left the Bills needing a QB and many “insiders” had Allen over Rosen - while fans had Rosen over Allen. If the board played out the way he has it - I see no way Beane passes on Newsome - none - that is the most slam dunk pick he could have. You want CB and speed and he has it in spades - as opposed to a fast, but not elite speed RB. I don’t think it is close.

My biggest issue with all of this is you are trading a two time ProBowler that struggles at Mike for basically an unknown guy in a similar mold that sounds like he will struggle at the Mike. Are we getting significantly better? Are we going to go through the growing pains of a new guy in the middle? I think you have the target right - I just think Edmunds is here for this year - unless they can trade up and pick up a replacement veteran MLB that has some scheme familiarity. I would love to see this team roll Milano, JOK, and Edmunds out at LB and move them around for pressure and coverage - I am just not sure the DC is big on using a pressure package - they tend to run a more passive and less aggressive scheme to keep plays in front. Therefore - I still see lots of nickel packages and then you don’t benefit from 3 LBs that are similar.

Matt Patricia and Heavy are synonymous. 😂

I agree - I myself think Fields is the best QB after Lawerence, but there are warts. I don’t get Wilson love in NY - I just think that is a bad fit. A young Mormon kid from Utah trying to play in that spot light with the entire franchise dying for a QB - I think he would fit better with a team with more talent and less venom. I think that was a great spot for Fields - Ohio State the pressure and the talent - I think that could of been a nice match. I Love Lance, but he needs to go to a team with some quality QB depth and some stability to give him a chance to grow and develop. I think a team like ATL with a new staff and Ryan in place would be ideal. Mac Jones throws me - as I see a guy that won, but was on the best and most talented team by far. I see leadership, but when you have multiple top 10 WRs - I am not sure how exactly to process his play. I would be hesitant to draft him as a savior, but could see a talented team like SF going for it. So yes I think teams are overthinking it on Fields, but as Gunner said - scheme fit and style will make a difference for these guys.

The only thing I will disagree with is picking up the 5th year option. Beane has a value for MLB in his head and if the 12+ million is over that (as I suspect it is because that is more than I would want to pay) - then even if Beane is optimistic on Edmunds - he would not sign his option and would just work to re-sign him - similar to Milano. The evidence would be if they let Edmunds walk to sign a deal next year for significantly below market value. That would show they did not want him at any cost. If they work to re-sign him at an AAV of 10 million or so - where I suspect they have him slotted - it would be a sign they wanted him back, but not at all costs. We have seen this GM as part of a FO in Carolina do that exact thing to CBs and they did it to Phillips and Lawson last year. They have a price point and even if they want you back - they work hard to keep players in the slotted range they have set aside.

Totally agree - it also was the way the board looked. He talked about the Bills liking Allen and Darnold and that was correct, but many people started to connect those dots once the Jets moved to 3. He did not throw the Rosen or Jackson model up there - he was adamant that it was Allen - but then he also pushed the Antonio Brown trade as done when it wasn’t and he ended up wrong about that also.

Allbright stinks, but when he throws enough crap at the wall some of it sticks. I think he has linked the Bills to about 35 different prospects - one is bound to be right. He has not been accurate with anything Bills related and just talks a big game with nothing to back it up.

Totally Agree - my feelings on the JA opinion deal is that he was the perfect example of Analytics versus Scouting. The traditional scouting side loved his arm, legs, mind, and the offense he came from. They looked at him as unmolded clay that could be shaped into a franchise QB with a little patience. The analytics guys put him in their made up formulas and everything points to a draft bust. The analytics guys over the last few years had been making major inroads into the sport and Josh became that flash point. If he succeeds it shows there are major analytics flaws in their data models that traditional scouting can overcome and if he fails it was another dagger in the heart of traditional scouts. Since the majority of opinion writers are not traditional scouts and do not have traditional access to the players - they rely on the analytics and therefore mostly fall on that side and therefore Josh must fail. The old school scouts and guys like Mel Kiper were much more positive because they they have seen these players succeed and he fits the perfect success model that scouts drool over. Josh Allen just became the analytics guys worst nightmare because not only is he an outlier, but he is a huge outlier suggesting their data and models need correction. This came on the huge analytics failure in the Cleveland front office and I think was just to much for guys like Sam Monsoon and others at PFF and other analytics firms - Rather than accepting that models needed further enhancements- it was easier to push the bust narrative and continue to hope for failure and to downplay every positive thing he does.

The problem I see with most football related advanced metrics - say QBR, QBASE, SB nations, the various metrics in the original article, etc. - is that they model the analytics on the results to try and make things fit and then when things fit they assume it is correct. They have not created a valid model and then plugged numbers in because every player is different and unique. Stating that a QBs ceiling in the pros is lower than his college stats is just about the dumbest thing someone can say. Yes for many QBs (especially on good college teams) they never develop, but for every Ryan Mallet - there is a Tom Brady, a Brett Farve, an Aaron Rodgers, a Patrick Mahomes, and yes a Josh Allen. You can tell how bad some of their info is when a guy like college Matt Ryan is on par and they skip him to focus on Josh McCown. The NFL scouts knew he had talent and the analytics dweebs used every computation to say how bad he was - especially compared to Baker, Darnold, Rosen, and even Rudolph. They still have no idea what to make of him because each year he takes their well laid “Math” and destroys it and when things don’t fit the analytics guys just skip him and go on to the next guy.

If they do it with their 1st rd pick or move up - I will laugh and laugh at their wasted picks. Just as if we move up - I would be ticked. No value at all to that position.

It has got to be a smokescreen for a DE or CB. No way they waste extra picks on a RB. Just does not make sense. Of course it is McShay - so it is just about guaranteed to be wrong.

Doesn’t really change much for me - of all the LBs drafted that were available to the Bills (so excluding Chubb and Smith) - Edmunds is beat by Leonard and maybe Warner - it is not like he is a the 10th or 12th best LB from that draft. We selected Edmunds as the 3rd LB and after 3 years he is still easily top 5 out of his draft class and top 3 at his position. Even as good as a guy like Smith has been being drafted 8 picks higher - Edmunds has more ProBowls, more passes defended, more forced fumbles, and nearly matches him in tackles. Guys like Chubb and Leonard are more outside guys so some different stats, but both are probably better in their position. The other inside guy in Warner has more tackles, but less sacks, less passes defended, and the same number of INTs. So for me - you have 3 quality inside LBs from that draft in Edmunds, Smith, and Warner and the numbers between all 3 are close. I also think each of those 3 guys are fits for the teams that got them. So again - I am not sure what to expect as we drafted him to do exactly what he has been doing and for the role we have there was one LB in Warner drafted after him that is better.

Do teams really have to worry about him “going the distance” though? Honestly. Etienne is mid 4.4 speed - that is not blazing and certainly not faster than a bunch of NFL LBs and DBs. He would be faster than the current Draft pick backs we have, but he does not strike me as a take it to the house guy in the NFL. I see a take it to the house guy with a forty time below 4.4 and hopefully 4.35 and lower. Elite level speed. Etienne has the best combo of speed and play in the upcoming draft, but I just think he will be an average RB for some team. I don’t think he is as good at Harris in the passing game or the running game, and he has had way to many touches and fumbles over the last couple of years. I would rather draft a late round or UDFA speed back than Etienne myself.

The only question I have is when you say: “He hasn’t lived up to his draft status” - what exactly pushes that. As a late 1st round pick - he has been voted outright to 1 ProBowl and was an alternate to another in 3 years. He is the caller of the defense and plays on over 90% of the snaps (among the top on the team). He was an integral part of 2018 and 2019 defenses that were top 5 and excellent against the pass. What exactly do we expect from a draft pick to live up to his position. If people want to say MLB is not a premier position and is not worthy of a huge salary - I can get behind that, but if I draft a guy in the 1st round and in his first 3 years he goes to 2 ProBowls and the defense is Top 5 twice and top 10 in a weird year where he and his LB mate were both injured - I am ecstatic with what he has given me. I have no issues with the Bills looking to draft a LB and maybe having to trade or move on from Edmunds after the season to maintain salary integrity, but it is position based not that he has not lived up to his draft spot. Everyone complained and wanted Vander Esch after the early part of year 1, but Edmunds has been shown to be a better choice and is a top AFC LB year after year.

I don’t know, but you go back and watch Motor in college and he was near the top in missed and broken tackles. So my guess is yes - in college he probably could of hit those holes and run through college level arm tackles. I don’t know that he gets all the yards, but I think he powers on through some of it.