Rochesterfan

No - In-Breaking routes. It could be a slant, it could be a post, or it can be any number of other routes like a 10 yard square in. Basically he is working more on the middle of the field nearer the hashes. His arm strength has allowed him to already throw the long out breaking routes to the sideline, but he was more hesitant and had more issues on the routes toward the middle as there can be more defenders in the area. He seems to be working on footing and how to take a bit off the throws to help his guys. I really look forward to seeing how this translates to our TEs as many of these routes are also traditional TE routes that Josh has not used much of in the past. He liked hitting Knox or Kroft (and even Lee Smith) on routes closer to the numbers or outside and rarely on skinny posts or in cuts.

The strip occurred at the 15 and was recovered on the 13. Newton’s knee hits the ground right where the ball was recovered. The strip saved the game, but it would have still been 3rd and 4 or so. There is no way he gets a first as just after the hit by Zimmer - Newton goes down and his knee hits. I understand there was a definite chance we could have lost, but I still think they would of had a 3rd and mid range and would of needed a timeout. Either way - it was a great ending for us.

Not sure I agree - the play he fumbled was a 2nd and 10 on the 19 - even if he doesn’t fumble it would have been 3rd and 6 from the 15. The most likely outcome was still a FG to tie the game and I still liked the Bills chances in OT. I don’t think we were on the ropes as NE never lead in the game - they kept having to match us. I think NE has talent, but they are not a great team. I think their TEs are better, but our top 4 maybe 5 WRs start for them and they really do not have good WRs or depth and if they get rid of Harry it is even worse. I also think there OLine is not any better than the Bills - they have some good run blockers, but pass blocking is not a strength and the last time they lost their OLine coach - the line fell apart and they had to bring him back after a year - so I expect their line to be a liability this year. Their defense has loads of potential whether Gilmore plays or not, but they will need to be a top scoring defense because that offense is going to be in the bottom of the league scoring. I expect at least 1 tight game and one comfortable win against them, but I just do not seem them hanging around at the end of the season. Looking realistically at their schedule I see them looking good early, but starting with LAC at the end of Oct. going 3-7 down the stretch for a 7-10 or 8-9 record.

Sorry - we beat them in the second game 38-9 a complete domination from start to finish. We did only beat them by a FG in game 1, but we were the better team - just needed to finally get that win and cement ourselves as the better team. Game 1 versus NE was mental more than anything. The Dolphins we’re 10-6 solely on the basis of the defense. I would not expect them to repeat the turnover fest that kept them in games - everything I see suggests a regression to the mean for the Dolphins and around a 0.500 record 8-9, 9-8 or so. The Pats spent a ton on offense, but I think they will be a run, short pass game team and neither their QBs - nor their WRs scare me - I think they will be better than last year, but are still going to lose some close games that Brady would have won. They are a 0.500 level team also. The Jets intrigue me, but Corey Davis and Carl Lawson do nothing for me on that team. Lawson had a great contract year on team that went no where. I picture it very much like Phillips going to Arizona (or Lawson going to Miami) then getting hurt and/or doing nothing. They put everything into the contract year. I think the Jets are 3-4 years away - assuming they don’t get impatient and blow it up again. I am not sure they got the 4th or 5th best QB in the draft at the 2nd spot, but my guess is long term he is closer to Darnold than Lawrence or even Fields or Lance. I guessed 11-12 wins for the Bills - I could easily see 14, but realistically the last few games will depend on seeding and guys they want to rest. I would also consider it successful to get back to the AFCCG again, but that obviously is not the goal - the actual goal is to win it all and the Bills can do that.

Hap - You are 100% correct Beasley only mentioned Retiring or taking the fines/suspensions rather than following protocol and I am not going to discuss his thinking with that, but at the time of his tweet fest- the NFL and NFLPA had not come out with a COVID Opt out option or plan. I don’t believe it changes anything with Beasley, but the Opt Out did suddenly give him an option to not follow protocols and step away until this further clears without retiring or taking any fines/suspensions thrown his way. I don’t believe he took it, but it was a legitimate question based upon his prior tweets.

Agreed - especially if we are including Addison/Butler or asking them to retain salary. In any of those cases - I am assuming Philadelphia would be looking for a significantly higher pick. @Einstein's Dog - I guess my question would be if AZ and TN have money and would out bid the Bills - why wouldn’t they be in on a trade - especially TN. If they are interested - they should be able to offer a similar pick - that most likely is lower in the round and not ask for Philadelphia to retain salary. If he is cut - Ertz gets his choice and could go to whatever team for whatever money - the Bills would have a better shot as we are contenders. If it was strictly money - then I don’t want him - I want a guy who is willing to give his all to win - not because of a little more money with a worse team and QB. I do not hear rumors of any team (except the Bills) trying to trade for him - and I think most of the trade rumors are pure garbage. I think the Bills tried to get him and when Philadelphia didn’t do it early - they moved on and will revisit once he is cut. Many teams with space can make a much more attractive package in a trade than Buffalo - Buffalo has a bigger advantage in FA - at least based upon what I see.

Right after camp and when they were showing the videos from OTA’s - may still be in the OTA thread - They talked about spending a lot of time working on in breaking routes toward the middle of the field. Last year they spent a lot of time working timing on out breaking routes. Josh even said in one of his interviews that the in breaking routes were one of his off season focus. I believe the RB and WR decision will come down to a few special teams things. I think if McKenzie (McKittrick for laughs) wins the return job - both punt and kickoff - then that opens up a WR spot that someone like Kumerow could fill - which may allow them to get rid of Jones and have the 3 RBs active. It will also depend on TE and other RBs like Williams because if we trade for Ertz - you now potentially have 4 TEs minimum to keep on the roster and if Williams looks good at RB - he might push one of the other RBs down and therefore force other decisions. All I know for certain is we have about 60-65 legitimate NFL caliber players and we are going to be cutting or trading guys that will make other rosters. Our O-Line is about 11 players deep and a few like the rookies aren’t ready, but will need to make the team. The DLine is the same way. The WR room has Hodgkins, Kumerow, Stevenson- all sitting on the bubble and all have a legitimate place on a roster. I think the final 53 will (as usual) have a strong special teams flare, but I could also see a few young guys make the roster and push a few former key special teams guys off the roster. Jones/Gilliam - I am looking at you - they might have to sacrifice some ST experience to keep some youth and talent.

Totally agree, but he didn’t use Beasley like you would Ertz. Beasley would come off the line flying and he would hit him after breaks as he gained separation. Ertz doesn’t really gain a ton of separation- he finds that soft spot turns around and posts up - that is something Josh has not really utilized- even when we saw TEs like Kroft do that for him. Like I said - I get the reasons Ertz could be a huge plus - I just think on the current Bills offense - he is still the 5th option (much like Knox and Kroft were) and his targets and plays would be hugely limited. He would be a nice target near the goal line as that is we’re Josh seems to really find his TEs.

Honestly depending on pre-season - my guess would be Brenda takes the place of Yeldon and most weeks is sat. The only difference is if Kumerow beats out Jones as a gunner and then Jones is cut. I would expect 3 RBs active each week. I also would not be surprised (depending on the Ertz situation) if Knox, Hollister, and Sweeney are the only active TEs with Hollister taking Gilliam’s ST role.

I agree and based upon what came out of OTAs and minicamp - the Bills are working on in-breaking routes and throws toward the middle of the field. - those are throws Josh has been more hesitant to make (they got him in trouble as a rookie - especially against NE). Those would include using the TE and RB as a safety valve - I would think. Also please do not think that I hate Ertz because I think he would be the best TE the Bills have, but I think with Josh Allen as he is wired - you could give him Travis Kelce as a TE and our crappy 2018 WRs and he would still use the WRs at about a 5:1 rate compared to a HOF level TE - it is not hating on Josh as he is elite, but he is just wired to make plays and so far in his career from college on - WRs make plays. TEs move chains and are critical inside the 5 yard line, but between the 10’s - the WRs is where the money is at.

I totally agree that Josh likes to throw guys open - what would be interesting is if he would actually use the TE in a way that is really an option. Josh going back to his college days with a true NFL caliber TE and borderline NFL WR - preferred throwing to his WR at a 2.5 to 1 ratio and used the #2 And #3 WR at the same rate as the TE. I understand that we question is Knox a legit TE, but the number of TE targets - even when those guys have been open is tiny compared to the targeting of WRs - even when covered. Look at the Davis catch versus SF over the top of Warner - he had the TE leak out perfectly for a huge gain also - wide open - perfect design, but Josh loves the throws to WRs - especially outside the hash and numbers and he has the arm to make it. My feelings are that having Ertz is another option, but without making major changes to the thought process and how Josh attacks a defense - I think Ertz is putting up numbers similar to Knox and Kroft over the last 2 years. 35 catches on 50 targets for 300-400 yards and 4 TDs. I don’t believe he would be the difference maker some envision simply because of where in the progression for Josh the TE falls. Now if Beasley is unavailable for any reason and they use Ertz in that role maybe he makes a difference, but I think on most plays - the TE is an afterthought for Josh - not Daboll necessarily as he came from NE as a TE coach - he knows gettin those guys open - Josh just does not consistently or even often look for that as his primary guys were getting open last year.

I’m not sure. From a DC position am I really worried about Ertz versus Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, Davis, McKenzie? If Ertz was on the team - I as DC - would be thrilled to have the ball going to him all day and keeping it out of the WRs hands. Until they prove that they will use the TE to win games on a consistent basis - my gameplan would continue to focus mostly on ways to handle, limit, or contain the WRs. Either tight man coverage with doubling of some of the WRs or a blitzing package to go after Josh. Ertz getting 8 or 10 yards making a catch and going down would be acceptable. Make the Bills go down the field slowly without big chunk plays. If I’m a DC - Knox worries me more than Ertz at this point - he is inconsistent, but when he catches the ball - especially on the outside - he has gotten some nice chunk plays and has run over people bringing huge energy to both Josh and the team. Ertz gives you another reliable receiver (although his catch % last year was worse than Knox), but his strength is not in blocking and his Yards per Reception is not great - which all suggests he is basically a get to a spot - make a catch - and get tackled guy and that may help with a few 1st downs, but actually lessens the offense versus Beasley in that same role.

No don’t fix the loopholes - those are the same loopholes that the Bills will be using once they sign Allen to his extension. The Bills already used some of those loopholes to sign back everyone and will continue to exploit them.

Don’t disagree, but having even 1 healthy WR for the Colts, Ravens, and Chiefs game might have helped even more than Ertz could have. Additionally - not that it matters as he can learn, but Josh Allen has never favored throwing to TEs - even in college with a pro level TE in Hollister - he significantly favored throwing to WRs. When both Hollister and Gentry were in Wyoming- Gentry got 72 catches, the number 2 wr got mid 30 catches and then Hollister with 30. I think unlike a guy like Jackson - Allen prefers to throw to WRs and use the field outside the numbers and down the field. I am not sure he is comfortable and has adapted to throwing all of the middle of the field TE safety throws. He has had them in the past and chosen to bypass that safety route for a WR downfield streaking across the field. He does the same thing with RBs as safety values - he is getting better, but it is more limited.

I don’t disagree with either of these on a whole, but if someone expects that Ertz is coming in and giving you anything like he produced in Philadelphia in the past that is crazy. If your expectations are that Ertz gets you 40-50 catches, between 400-500 yards, and 5 TDs. Then you might be right on. The question becomes what are you willing to trade and how much are you willing to pay for that kind of production? Are you willing to give up a mid round pick in what could be the deepest draft in a long, long time after the pandemic and pay him 4/5 of your remaining salary cap space - because I am not sure I am willing to do that for basically the name. For me - I am not overly concerned if we get him or not. I would be fine if it was a 7th and Philadelphia maintained 60% of his salary - so we got him at ~3.5 million or if Philadelphia took back salary like Addison and a 7th or Butler and a 7th for Ertz, but if we start pushing 5th round and his full salary - I would rather see Beane wait and try to get him after cuts.

It depends upon where those catches are coming from. Zach Ertz is not as good of a receiving threat as Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, or Gabriel Davis - so with the limited number of passes per game (averaged 38 last year) - Diggs - ~ 11 per game Sanders - ~ 6 per game Beasley - ~ 7 per game Davis - ~ 4 per game RB’s and McKenzie -~ 5 per game That leaves you about 5 targets per games and if they all went to Ertz with his career catch % that would get him 50 catches. My guess is he would not be the only TE targeted so probably 1/3 go to Knox, Hollister, Sweeney- so Ertz would be in the 35 catch range. If we want him in the 50-55 catch range - then you are pulling targets from Beasley, Sanders, and Davis to feed Ertz and that is a net negative to the offense. I also do not want to give up assets or pay significant money to Ertz for a 50 catch season. That is what we got from the TEs last year at a better rate of return with no added cost. I agree that the FO said they got little out of the TE, but they also said the running game struggled and they wanted to improve, but brought back the same o-line and RBs basically. So yes I think they would like more out of the TE position, but I am not sure it comes from an acquisition like Ertz more an adjustment to game planning. I guess the final thing I would say about this is if I am an opposing defense - I would rather see the Bills throw to Ertz over Diggs, Beasley, Sanders and Davis. I wouldn’t really adjust coverage to accommodate for Ertz because he is less of a threat than those other guys. He is also less of a blocker than the other TEs so he helps less on the running plays. If we decided to run more 2 TE sets you are pulling talented WRs off the field for lesser players including Ertz. In Philadelphia- Ertz was the best receiver they had for several years or at least top 2 which is why he got the targets. In Buffalo he comes in as the 5th best target at best and should get targets commensurate with that level of talent.

The numbers are all there and all correct, but he was on a team during that time that had very limited WRs and a QB and system designed to use the TE. I am fairly certain that if Ertz was given the same number of targets as Knox - let’s say last years 44 targets - his numbers don’t look the same as in Philadelphia. So let’s say we forget Ertz last year - where his catch % was 50% and actually below Knox’s - we call last year the outlier for him and look at 2019. Ertz - 135 targets, 88 catches, 65% catch percentage, 916 yards, 10.4 Y/R, and 6 TDs. Now let’s look at Knox if he got that kind of volume targets using his career average: Knox - on 135 targets - 76 catches, 56% catch percentage, 988 yards, 13.0 Y/R and 8 TDs. The difference between them would be 12 catches and Ertz would put up fewer yards and TDs - not exactly a huge advantage for Ertz - plus Ertz played mostly as essentially a split out TE - more of a WR not a blocking role as the Bills use the TE. So let’s say we move Ertz into the current Bills offense and gave him a similar role to Knox and Kroft and gave Ertz those targets using his 2019 numbers. Kroft and Knox 2020 - 50 Targets, 36 catches, 407 yards, 6 Tds Now Ertz numbers with those Targets: Ertz - 50 targets, 33 catches, 343 yards, 4 TDs He actually produced less than Kroft and Knox combined. Look I don’t care either way on Ertz - to me he is no more or less a threat than what they had - the difference is all about volume. If Ertz comes in - how many targets does he get and where do they come from. Is he playing a role similar to Knox and Kroft or are they playing him in a role similar to his time in Philadelphia or more Kelce role? If we are giving him more targets - what WR are they coming from because his numbers are significantly worse than the WRs - so taking catches from them is a downgrade. The most important thing though is what are you giving up and paying for different piece - again to me although the play different positions- Ertz was Philadelphia’s Beasley - not Knox - and therefore that is the impact that will be felt. Beasley played the slot get open and get a first down role that Ertz had in Philadelphia and basically Beasley puts up just slightly better numbers than Ertz on average in Buffalo in that role.

The only player on any team that gives you that kind of increased or decrease chance of winning is QB. No other player or position even shifts a line fraction of points. Signing Ertz maybe gives you a bit under 1% chance to win a game over Knox. The change in a TE on a team with 5 starting caliber WRs is fairly insignificant- especially a TE that is more of a split out rather than a blocking TE. The only way Ertz really helps is if Beasley chooses to sit out - they are the 2 players that split out and move chains - Ertz is not really going against Knox/Hollister as they are playing more of an H-back blocking role to protect Josh.

No way in He🏒🏒 does Ertz get anywhere close to that number of targets nor should he. He might get Krofts and maybe some of Knox’s targets ~40 targets. The Brown targets and then some will be taken up by Sanders - a significantly better receiver than Ertz. I would imagine Hollister also gets some targets along with Knox/Sweeney. Even if Ertz comes in - unless Beasley decides to opt out - you have 4 WRs that are better receivers than Ertz and will be used more in the passing game. Ertz also was not a great blocker in Philadelphia- so my guess would be he gets limited snaps as they used the TE in a pass blocking role - not a strength of Ertz. I think this is mostly smoke because I don’t think Ertz really fits with the offense and if they bring him in - it takes snaps from Beasley more than anyone else and I prefer Beasley as the chain mover.

My guess is this has a lot to do with it. PFF is most likely excluding pass rusher tackles for loss as that makes a huge difference. They are probably looking at off the ball inside guys not on the LOS versus outside LBs on the LOS - those players are typically in a grouping of EDGE players now not LBs (OLBs and DEs). Those guys dominate the PFR reference table provided - guys like Watt, Mack, etc.

Great - it is absurd, but who started Tua over Fitz? Someone made that call and if Tua sucks - then who is to blame for starting him?

If Tua sucks - why start and play him ahead of Fitz that had the team in playoff contention. That is on Flores. Once you have decided to start Tua - why pull him out of 3 games at the end - is he not good enough or needs more time - then he was not ready to start - on Flores. Basically they lost opportunity to gain him valuable experience in end of game and pressure situations by pulling him and you missed the playoffs by choosing to start him over Fitz. It was the worst of both worlds. That is all on the HC. Their defense way overachieved and they lost out due to Flores. I think he is a middle of the road guy that has lost part of that team with his handling of the team and the QB. The Bills could of been in the same boat with the benching of Tyrod and Peterman, but McDermott talked with the team leaders and got things righted and found a way to make the playoffs. Flores with a better team benched Fitz and refused to go back until it was to late and they missed out.

This is not the first time this has been spoken off. I have heard several former Bills talk about this in the past as they had 1 player that came out to the team and there were at least 2 more guys that hinted, but never officially came out to the teams during this time. The players on the Bills from the late 80’s through the late 90’s did not seem to be bothered and they kept it fairly tightly sealed, but there were rumors that leaked. There were also players way back in GB under Lombardi that were known by teammates to be LGBT, but basically Lombardi told the team if anyone can help us win - no one should care - basically treat everyone as an equal and do your job. The Redskins also had several gay players in the late 70’s and were a very inclusive team. A few of the players have since come out and several were outed by the beginning of the AIDS epidemic before treatment and drugs. The NFL like many other groups (such as the military) has had their share of LGBT players and they have typically not seen the backlash associated with it that some people seem to want to think would happen in a locker room setting. The players seem to respect the wishes of the other and expect them to do their job and be a good teammate. The fact is - it doesn’t matter who the player/players were and people trying to figure it out is just stupid. It doesn’t matter who - what matters is it is another voice saying look others have been through this and with support they achieved the highest levels.

Cover1 did a great video analysis of the running game and covered all this. The offense switched up their blocking scheme to better merge with the pass blocking scheme and the switch to more 3-4 WRs and no full back. This switch also moved the primary TE off the LOS more and into an H-Back role. The final piece was this was designed with the original starting 5 OL last year (Dawkins, Spain, Morse, Feliciano, Ford/Williams) and those guys never played a snap together. Compounding the switch was the decrease in practice and preseason to get the timing working together - especially on double teams and combo blocks. The blocking scheme adjustment also was very new for Singletary - who admitted he was more comfortable in a straight ahead man scheme rather than the combo blocking double team/zone style and he mis-read some holes and totally missed some runs. I believe from listening to the coaches and the Cover1 guys that they felt the run game had some potential, but they needed to focus on it and last year the big focus was on Josh Allen and the passing attack. They gave a much higher percentage of their practice time to getting timing and passing calls meshed together than putting in a running attack and that showed in the stats. In the end - I believe they realize scoring comes from the passing game and they just need to do a little better in the running game when forcing teams into coverage - nickel and dime sets. I think they will take a lesser running game if they can keep the explosive passing game, but I expect with increased preseason and practice - they will mesh a bit better than last year - I don’t expect them to lead the league or even run significantly more times than last year, but I think they will be more efficient and effective.

How do you think it is going to work this year. Sounds like normal PS and they have said they do not plan to adjust games. Last year was different as there was nothing, but precautions and once it got into a small group it took too long to make sure the spread had stopped. This year they have something to help prevent spread and illness - team that get infected will sit players for 2-4 weeks and have to play without. I doubt they will set up forfeits unless the NFL/NFLPA can agree to something, but they have already decided - vaccinated players that miss a game get paid and unvaccinated players do not necessarily get paid and if found to have broken rules - can actually be fined.