Rochesterfan

But what is the point. There have been multiple QBs with 65+ QBR with winning records and no playoffs. Fitz has done it a couple of times. This year you have 3 QBs with Burrow, Carr, and Purdy above 64.5 with losing records. If there is some correlation that would be helpful, but it doesn’t match anything other than teams that have pretty good QB.

Maybe I am missing something here, but your 49ers defense of losing to the Chiefs is the 2 guys that Shanahan and Lynch have picked to be QBs aren’t as good as the guys McD picked and if they were they would have won - ok, but that choice has always been on them and who they wanted at QB. The second part you praise the 49ers D under an offense coach and blame the failure on the offense and then Hammer McD because the Bills offense has been sound and the defense failed. How does this not ring exactly the same for both of them. If the Bills are being outcoached because the strength of the Bills coaching is defense and that is being beat - then I would argue the 49ers suffered the same thing by playing great defense and the handpicked QBs failed. If Purdy can’t play from a messy pocket - isn’t it Shanny job to adjust and fix that - roll outs, extra protection, quicker routes, etc, but you blame the QB for the failure and leave the offensive guru as a by product. When 13 seconds occurred - everyone blames McD implicitly even though Wallace and Poyer have both come out and stated they had a miscommunication and the players messed up the call and were not in the correct position. For the Bills it is coaching and a McD failure - for SF it is his QBs that he picked that is the failure. It makes no sense. I guess for me the loss is the loss and Shanny has never beaten KC (regular or postseason) and he has also been outplayed and beaten by the Bills in their match-ups.

Yes they acquired them as draft picks and now that they have to pay them - they are in the same boat as the Bills. If they pay Purdy - they are looking at letting some DL and a WR go. It is a choice that teams make. SF went for a veteran QB and built the defense by draft. The Bills drafted a QB and built the defense by FA and are now transitioning the other way. I also noticed how convenient you stopped there : 2024 Josh counts over 30 million in cap and 60 million in cash 2024 Purdy - 1.004 million in cap That 29 million allows Nick Bosh, Deebo, and your choice of Lenoir or Floyd to cover cap only. They have 1 more year and then need to decide are they going forward with Purdy or back to drafting another QB and shot #4.

I don’t know - I have probably watched at least 20 -25 49ers games over the last 2 years maybe more and yes Tua and Purdy are not in the same class making off schedule plays because that is not how Shanny (or by default McDaniels) want the offense run. Trey Lance in his limited games was playing like early Josh - holding the ball - waiting for plays to open up deeper and taking off when needed and Kyle benched him as quickly as he could because he wasn’t getting the ball out - he didn’t even try to grow him into a player. Look as was said Shanny is in the same ballpark/Tier as McD as a coach, but I wouldn’t trade the 2 from the beginning and believe that the Bills are where they are under Shanny - I don’t think he would of drafted Josh or mentored him to the QB he is. Maybe he would have, but as he got the QB he wanted in SF with Jimmy G - why do we think that wouldn’t have been our path also.

No the point is Jimmy G was their choice - that is who they chose as their QB. Then when they couldn’t win they moved up and gave up a ton of picks for Trey and then failed to even try to develop him. They preferred a lesser talent in Mr. Irrelevant and have gone that route. They have made 3 separate choices at QB and people say look they got farther with lesser QBs - that should be a huge flag against these guys. Since they were hired they have gotten their QB and failed. In addition- by having a lesser QB - they are saving 60+ million that they have used on 3-4 elite talent at OT, DE, WR, and RB. Once they pay the QB see what happens with Miami - talent at other positions has to go away. They are living in the moment, but now they have to decide - do they move on from Purdy and try to start over or do they pay Purdy and begin to dismantle that other talent that everyone drools over. And if we are honest - give McD that defensive talent and ask him to play conservative and run to win - yes I think he has a better record than Shanny with that team. And to better than Shanny - they only have to make the playoffs 1/2 the time and he showed he could do it with Tyrod as the QB and no WR talent and forming a defense - yes I think he could do a lot with that extra talent. You mean like he did against KC to win the game?

Everyone kills McD for 13 seconds - Shanahan has had multiple versions of that as an OC and HC at the biggest moment, but because he is not the Bills coach - they laud him for making it and losing and being totally out coached. 🤦‍♂️

Bull - the reason they love Purdy was because of his quick processing and getting the ball out to the right player on schedule. It means hitting now CMC in the flat in stride as soon as he clears the defense, or hitting a slant right after the snap before the defense can react. Yes Purdy has made some plays off schedule, but it is very limited - the same as Tua in Miami with McDaniel. he wants them to play with the structure and when they don’t- (see Lance who struggled with that (very similar to Josh early) - Shanahan moved on Could Shanahan have adapted - maybe, but the available data suggests he would rather have a QB that plays within his structure and offensive scheme than develop a QB that has different strengths. He choose Jimmy G as his 1st QB - that was not forced on him. He then chose to develop Mr. Irrelevant in Purdy over #3 pick Lance. Those were not things forced on him - those were his choices. If he had held to his convictions- the other QB he would have grabbed was Mac Jones.

Where did Josh struggle coming out of college. He struggled reading defenses and making quick throws especially to RBs - that is exactly what the Shanahan offense is predicted on. Even now Josh struggles with passes to RBs in screen situations or quickly when they leak out into the flat and throwing some quick slants (like to Cooper last weekend). When he came out that was nearly non existent. Early in his career - Josh held the ball and hit guys much deeper when they cleared open and when that wasn’t available he took off and ran. That was exactly the problem Lance had and even though Shanahan drafted Lance 3rd overall - he never even gave him a real chance to grow. Why would anyone believe he would have given Josh the freedom to grow and become the player he is. The Shanahan (and by extension McDaniel) offense is set up to give the QBs quick reads and throws and get the ball out immediately and that has been the QBs that have been more successful. Give them Josh 6-7 years in where he has developed and he will be successful, but to assume that Shanahan would have gotten that growth is not something I can do - especially seeing as Shanahan has already shown a lack of patience with a raw QB with similar skills to Josh when he didn’t play within the structure of the offense.

He has also lost significantly more games in higher stakes (and lower stakes) including 2 SBs as a coach and a huge blunder as an OC where he cost his team the victory. Personally if you compare the 2 - Shanny to me is the bigger disadvantage versus McD and it isn’t close. The 49ers also aren’t paying a QB - even though they are on QB 3 (major fail) and therefore have been able to spend more on other players. They are 0-3 on QBs and are starting to think they need an improvement again - big red flag. They have also benefited greatly from 1 major rule change that got them many extra high level draft picks when they lost both OCs and DCs. They have gotten like 6 additional free 3rd round picks because of timing - which of course adds to their talent pool.

So it is better to have a coach that after this year will have missed the playoffs 4 of 8 seasons and has lost to KC (and many other teams in addition) and has a worse win %, moved up to draft their future QB and totally whiffed, but because he has made SBs in the other conference and still lost to the team that beats us - we should change. My God that is just wrong. Let’s get rid of the guy that has made the playoffs 7 of 8 years, has developed a butt ton of players - including the QB- has the second best winning % of any coach during the last 5 years, is universally loved by his players - including Josh - has the best head to head record versus Reid and Mahomes, but let’s just move to another hypothetical coach and expect success. I mean it is not like high end QBs - Burrows, Herbert, Tua, Rodgers, Murray, Lawrence, etc have and will miss the playoffs because coaching. Yeah let’s throw away what we have for a very small hypothetical shot that some other coach will be better. I mean it isn’t like the majority of coaching changes result in failure. It isn’t like we went through 17 years shifting coach after coach and watching talented players want out because of the lack of culture. This quoted argument really kills me - we shouldn’t count their losses to KC because they weren’t in the playoffs - really 🤦‍♂️. So now you are punishing McD because his team makes the playoffs every year and wins games in the playoffs every year. Again I will take a coach that guides his team to the playoffs year after year over a guy that is hitting 50% all the time.

I think with Shanny and Lynch - the Bills are less successful because Josh would be much less effective in the Shanny offense and therefore the team would struggle. Give McD the 49ers with better RBs and better defense - I think you see him win just as much - similar to year 1 with Tyrod and a stellar defense. There are fewer blowouts, but a similar win %. Also in the NFC - he probably has a couple of SB visits and losses to KC and Shanny who can’t beat KC anyway still would be the guy with 0 SBs. That is just based upon their records and the failure Shanny has shown with any QBs with talent that do not follow his plan.

I totally agree - especially coming out of college that Shanny offense would never have worked for Josh. Even now I think Josh would struggle because Shanny doesn’t want guys that make play out of sequence - he wants you to hit the play like it was drawn up - sort of like Tua does in Miami. That has never been Josh’s game - even when he hits checkdowns it is not always in timing with the route or the play because he is looking for a potential big play. He has been better this year, but there are still times - see the Houston game that he passes up the easy play to try and make a bigger play. Shanny doesn’t seem to put up with that and never has.

Yet they seem to win at a clip only matched by KC and better than all of the teams that stack the box and put 8 in the box. The truth is - that is what teams want - they want the Bills to go away from their shell coverages and bring more in the box - so they can sneak a deep throw on a run down. The Bills don’t bite - even when maybe they should because it works. They give up some early runs while teams are still 2 dimensional, but they are playing the long game - the Bills feel they can force FGs and Turnovers at a high enough rate to win and for 7 years now that is exactly what they have done. It is frustrating sure and counter to everything that we were taught about football from day 1 (Run and stop the run) - the modern NFL is about patience and precision and that is what the Bills defense is so good at.

Please don’t say that because it would be wrong. Several QBs have thrown passes that got deflected back and they actually made the reception and scored TD - thus having both a passing and receiving TD on the same play. I believe Marcus Mariota did it most recently. He is the only QB to be credited with a passing TD, a receiving TD, and a rushing TD in the same game since the 1970 merger. It was 3 or 4 RBs and a WR previously - which all goes to show the athletic nature of Josh.

Correct - the only way it doesn’t follow this is if the lateral had hit the ground and been called a fumble. Then he would of gotten a completion, fumble recovery, and a TD, but since it was clean it is a pass completion and a receiving TD - same as on any other lateral play during a game - like Detroit did earlier in the year.

This right here - I believe is a huge part of the problem. McD and Beane have been better than Shanny/Lynch, but in the different conference. The 49ers have lost to the same team as the Bills, but get the huge benefit of losing that game in the SB because the NFC is so much weaker - especially at the QB position. How many SB appearances would the Bills have getting to play the NFC schedule rather than the AFC playoff teams? Shanny/Lynch since 2017 have missed the playoffs 3 of 7 years and unless something changes this year will be their 4th miss in 8 years. So 50% of the years they have no shot because they can’t even get to the dance. Throw the 49ers in the AFC mix and they have 0 SB appearances and are Cincinnati like with limited playoff runs. I think this combo is great - I just do not believe they are as good or better than McD/Beane. Philadelphia- man I like what Howie does with that roster, but I feel the same about them as I do Shanny/Lynch - the one year they put it together and go to the SB - they lose to KC - just like the Bills and I believe if you switched the 2 (Bills/Eagles) the Eagles don’t get a SB trip and the Bills have 2 trips. It is also worth noting that the the last 2 trips to the SB for these teams 2023 SF and 2022 Philly - they both had the luxury of the #1 NFC seed and a bye in round 1. Even with that KC beat both of them - which suggests if they had been in the AFC like the Bills they don’t make the SB either year. I don’t disagree that you named probably the 3 pairs that are on par (or better in KCs case) - (I may even throw in the Baltimore pair as a 4th), but to me that just shows how good the Buffalo pairing is. There is 1 team that has a better record overall than the Bills over the last several years and it just happens that we face them in the AFC playoffs and the NFC faces them in the SB instead. The problem I have when people want to make a change is that you are trying to improve upon a top 3-4 level coach and a top 3-4 level GM and the chances of that are super slim. And for the people that say get a top QB (like Allen) and anyone can make the playoffs - it just isn’t true - Burrow is going to miss the playoffs again - Tua is another guy that will be a failure - Lawrence in Jacksonville was widely considered a top prospect and they stink - Dak Prescott. The list of top QBs that make the playoffs year after year are Allen, Mahomes, and Lamar and they are rock steady at the top. You mess with that and any of those guys could be Burrow in Cincinnati and miss the playoffs 1/2 the time.

I have seen those slides that are very late and the defender is already sprinting forward and I would understand that getting argued as part of football and would totally not call it dirty, but this was not that situation. The defender is literally square and in place when the slide starts. He is not running, he is not coming forward, he is square and looking right at the QB 4 yards away. After the QB starts to slide - the defensive player decides to launch himself at the QB. Ejection was the right call and suspension would and should be on the table.

I totally agree with @GunnerBill on this hit. I thought originally when I saw it live it was borderline dirty. I have seem several of these slides where the defensive player is already in motion and looks to be avoiding the hit and the end result is much worse as the QB ends up driven down and the head smacks the ground as the defender goes over the top. Then I pulled it up after seeing this thread and advance it frame by frame and it is pretty damning to me. You can see Lawrence start to slow down and begin his slide at the 46 yard line. The Texan is lined up at the 42 yard line squaring himself up. Both players are 2 yards on either side of the 1st down marker and 4 yards apart. At that point, the Defender is 100% square like he is going to make a tackle. The next frame you can see both of Trevor’s legs are under him as he is fully committed to the slide. At this point he is between the 45 and 46 yard line and the first down marker is the 44 - so he is sliding short of the line to gain. What I find Damning is that at this moment the defender shifts from square up like you are going to make a tackle - to driving forward toward Lawerence and his arms move from his side to in front. At this point he is still a good 3.5 yards apart and his goal is no longer to tackle, but to hit Lawrence. He takes this time to launch himself at Lawrence and makes no effort to avoid or not strike him as hard as he can. To me that is 100% dirty and I nearly always side with the defenders in these cases. The defender had time to adjust and chose to go through Lawrence and cause the injury. I don’t think it was premeditated, but I also think it could of been avoided and therefore is dirty - he had time to adjust.

If you watch the big Dawson Knox catch versus the 49ers - where Knox is running down the seam - as the throw is in the air there is a great shot of Mack doing the same type of pointing toward Knox knowing the play design worked. I nearly died laughing just thinking about him doing this in the middle of a play.

Are you sure Joe Mixon was good against us with Houston? Please go back and review his numbers and let me know. Maybe I am forgetting some memorable runs in our game this year, but since he was injured and out - I am pretty sure he ran for like 0 yards against us.

It is always the following year. There are parts to the comp plan that can change if teams cut signed FA during the season. So we will be getting Comp picks in the upcoming draft for the FA signings done in this last off season.

Lots of work - interesting stuff, but I really think they let Douglas and Cooper walk. I think in both cases they are players that will sign for more as FA than what the Bills will sign replacements and get them comp picks in 2026. That allows them to extend Benford - which is much more important to the build of the team. I see Beane continuing with small FA pick ups that fill gaps - so there are limited needs come the draft - and then continuing to hit on picks that develop and provide replacements to the higher price veterans. I do not see them overspending to retain guys like Douglas and Cooper when they can replace them and get free picks back. This is what they have been building to.

Maybe, but again they faced top 5% of man since 2019 - even when Dabol was dialing up shot plays down field to Davis, Diggs, and Brown. 2020 they faced man nearly 35% of the time. I am sure there are many factors and the offense and WRs play into it and who knows exactly how the data was actually acquired and if it is 100% accurate, but there seems like their is more to it than whatever is this year. It could be teams we face: NYJ, Miami, NE, KC are all on the schedule every year and maybe they run a higher % of man - I would then expect the other AFC East teams to be higher, but it certainly could be a factor. Just logically- as Man is typically dangerous versus a QB that can run - if this data is true - Josh is the one consistent across the 5 years and we know many times teams try to stack the line and blitz - they also like to have a spy and try to force Josh to move in the pocket on his runs where the spy can catch him more squarely. I actually think the shallow offense is Brady’s counter to man and blitzes - it has also driven the choices in WR - going bigger with bigger catch radius and RAC ability gives the Bills an advantage in these situations.

If that was the case - why have they been in the Top 5 facing man every year since 2019 and the percentage this year is lower than 2020 and 2021. I think it has more to do with Blitzing and having spy’s than who the WRs are. Just my opinion, but the fact that 2020 was 35% with Diggs, Brown, Beasley, McKenzie and Gabe beating teams deep suggests it is not the WRs, but the gameplan that teams use.

I think it has less to do with the WRs - although it may be part of the reason their separation numbers are so bad. I believe it is more that teams have to spy Josh and blitz to stop runs and passes. The Bills have faced large amounts of man most years even with Diggs last year and years prior with Beasley and Brown - suggesting it has less to do with Current WRs and more to do with how teams perceive they must face the Bills Offense under Josh.