Rochesterfan

While I agree that there were very few options for the Bills that would have been better than TT this offseason - there are many QB's I would rather see under center for the Bills than TT if I had my choices. For me without a doubt or a second of hesitation I would take: Brees Ryan Brady Rodgers Luck Wilson Roethlisberger Carr Both Manning Brothers Newton Rivers Stafford Guys I would take, but with slight hesitation: Palmer Cousins Flacco Dalton Winston Prescott Mariota Romo Guys on par - I could go either way: Wentz Tannehill Bradford Cutler Garoppolo Lynch Smith Moore Guys I would not even look at - having TT as my QB: McCown Fitzpatrick RGIII Goff Kapernick Siemian Hoyer Kessler Barkley Osweiler Bortles I have TT in a third tier with a group of other QBs right around where most of his rankings come out around 20th in the league. He is starter caliber, but he is not what I view as a long term answer. I hated the idea of Mahomes in the draft, but that was probably the one chance for a potential upgrade this offseason was in the draft. Once that passed by TT is really the only option we have and I will root for him every Sunday he starts just as I have the last 2 years as he has been the best option, but I just do not expect much out of him. He will make some plays and limit mistakes and puts us in the middle of the NFL pack one of 12-15 teams that with the right breaks makes the playoffs and the wrong breaks ends up 6-10.

I agree with this - I also think that if TT performed better in several late game drives and looked better in the fast paced 2 minute offense and we won a few games because of last drive throws the narrative would change also. His best games - Miami and Seattle he did just that - he moved them down the field with chances to win. Seattle he did not make a play at the end - I don't think that was all on him - the Refs gave him no help. Miami he made enough plays and special teams missed the kick. The problem is there were other games that he had that chances against Baltimore, NYJs, Miami, Pittsburgh, heck even Oakland to lead drives to change the game. Yes the defense was an issue, but other playoff teams overcame that. A tighter and better defense helps, but there were still issues that TT needs to improve significantly to change that narrative.

Happy - we will have to disagree about that. If you look at absolute numbers of course being under pressure makes a DVOA go way down. The DVOA is affected by negative plays and it is very hard to take a sack when you are not under pressure. So the biggest negative play with no pressure is an Int and these are professionals the number of Ints should go up with pressure. The number of positive plays should also go down under pressure, but for TT they did not. His TD % per attempt goes up when he is under pressure. He threw more TDs under pressure in fewer attempts than when not under pressure. In addition - as we already knew his athletic nature allowed him to avoid sacks and escape the pocket and scramble for first downs - one of his major positives as a QB. Therefore we know he avoided a number of sacks and his unique athletic ability allowed him to convert first downs that his QB ability would not have converted. If Tyrod is left alone in the pocket and allowed to scan the field his DVOA is higher only because you eliminate the sack. His overall play as how he compares to other QBs in that situation drops from nearly the best to middle of the pack. It is why teams like Baltimore and the Jets talk about keeping him in the pocket and making him beat you as a QB. They are not afraid of how he plays as a QB throwing the ball from the pocket because in those situations he is average and much less likely to make a big play - either a long scramble or a TD pass than he is when you get pressure and he escapes the pocket and throws on the run or takes off with your DBs in man coverage. My main point being that these numbers presented make sense in the context of what we already knew about TT. They do not make me think the offense was better - they confirm what we knew. We knew that under pressure TT does a nice job of escaping pressure and making a positive play - that is one of his best attributes. What we need to see going forward is can he translate that playmaking ability to times he is not under pressure. Can he get his DVOA without pressure above the top 10 while still keeping his under pressure DVOA higher. Over 60% of the time there is not pressure on the QB and getting that DVOA up into the top 10 makes you a better QB and those are the areas he is average and why we as a fan base are split. The takeaway that I have and why I am ready to move on is that if we had to face a TT lead team and he was not on the Bills - that is a game I am thinking I can win. It is the same reason fan bases in places like Miami are split- you can do worse that either of those guys, but neither are the answer. They are the placeholders until you find the answer and maybe they get hot and you make a playoff run, but long term they are not the answer you need to win consistently in this league.

I think it could, but watching more "highlights" and game action - I think similar to Brees he could see enough, but there were times he chose not to throw, but when there was pressure and he reacted - he hit Clay a couple of times between the hashes and down the field late. We will see more this year in a different scheme.

Well thought out and well reasoned- I think I agree for the most part. You read it the same way I did - nothing was unexpected because these articles play into what was already his known strength. It also made me wonder about the rest of his game as he was so much better under pressure and he was under pressure % wise more than any QBs - so his overall QBing the rest of the time was even worse than the average numbers project. We will see how he does in a new offense with a new staff, but he has to get better in the normal aspects of the game and maybe some of that is designed rolls with out a lot of thought - just get rid of the ball. Time and space is his enemy - he needs to be instinctive and just make plays and that is part of the reason his timing was off, he struggled with throws to the middle of the field, and throwing timing routes to moving receivers. I have stated I do not think a lot of that was coaching - I think a lot of that was TT overthinking.

God - I try to stay out, but it just keeps coming back and I am sure like all of the other TT threads - we will have the exact same groups on both sides calling each other names and complaining about being insulted - such fun, but I digress. Thanks Happy - I like the thought, but I am not sure what it really tells us. First - the best part of TT's game is his mobility - so none of the stats "surprise" me. What it tells me is that under pressure - where he can't think and plays on instinct - he plays better. When he has time and an open field to read and absorb - he wants to make the perfect play and therefore is much less effective. What to me is truly scary is his TDs - well over half of his TD throws by this were under pressure - yet he was under pressure about 1/3 of the time. He needs to get much, much better in the flow of a game. Overall the combination of articles tell me 2 things - 1 Tyrod's legs are a huge part of his game and really helps with his play under pressure to escape and both run and throw. 2 - if I am a team playing TT - I look to what Baltimore did and I want to force him to be a QB and force him to read the field and make decisions- I think that is where TT struggles and that is why teams talk about making him be a QB. He is an improviser and his legs are a major part of his game, but the 2/3 of a time that teams did not pressure him and force him to make a play - his play tailed off. We will see what happens next - I will let you get back to insulting each other now.

Nope - none as of right now. I would not put Fred up there - not a starter long enough and was not quite good enough to deserve it. Played with a ton of heart, but he was not an all time great in a Bills uniform. Brian was a top level player at his position for several years and was here long enough to merit consideration, but I do not want to see a punter be placed on the Wall of Fame for an above average career. If he was an all time NFL great then maybe, but not because he was the best from a long run of below average talent. Kyle Williams would also merit consideration as a multi-time Pro-Bowl player and I would not hate seeing him placed on the Wall, but he is still active - let's see if he can help lead the team over the hump. If not - then I would prefer to see fewer guys on the Wall and keep it with the truly All Time Greats. I think you could go back to the 60's - 90's and find guys just as worthy or more so than anyone on this team since around 2000.

Agreed and he fixates on things not related to the posts - in this case Whaley for some awful reason. Someone disagrees and it is suddenly something about either EJ or Whaley - having nothing to do with the discussion at hand.

I think your first paragraph is spot on, but I do not think that leads to paragraph 2. I think based on what we saw in Denver with Dennison - you are looking at flooding zones and really having TT make one or two simply reads. I do not think they will be asking him to read across the field - as much as roll and dump short, medium, or long depending on safety/LB coverage.

I have not been here long and I agree - he really seems to have some good opinions and doesn't automatically go to extremes. I really understand what he and NoSaint are saying - the decision on how to fill those roles should be made by the GM ultimately. My feeling is that McD and Beane have had this discussion during their many runs over the years (not in regards to Buffalo - just in general) and have talked about how they want to fill a FO. I also suspect that McD talked with Beane specifically about Buffalo after McD was interviewed/hired and building a ground up structure from scratch was probably appealing. I in no way believe the task was easy or that some of the guys the Bills had in place were not good, but I think that was one of the things the Pegulas liked about McD - I think he already had a plan and a list of names for many top positions and therefore although the firing came before Beane was officially hired - I believe he had some influence on McD and that was all part of the decision.

The risk is the time needed to make that decision. We have no idea what was asked of the scouts prior to their dismissal or what McDermott looked at prior to this, but my feeling is he already had an idea of what he wanted and the vision and not one of those guys fit the future vision. There was no upside to keeping old staff - the positions can be difficult to fill, but teams do this all the time. Ideally in some business you interview the remaining staff and choose the best, but I think they had targets they wanted and wanted to move fast - people McD discussed weeks and months before this happened to bring his vision to Terry. Do you risk losing a really good guy - yes, but you get the opportunity to have people that you want and are loyal to you only.

Seems like they are doing a pretty good job filling the holes. I don't think they are going to need to outsource or rely on Walter Football (shudders). Never was a big deal. I disagree totally - keeping the guys has risk - especially if you are trying to totally change what they are looking for or how you want them to scout. You want to bring in guys with the same vision and guys that interview and understand the vision your are trying to put together. Dumping the guys meant you had some work to do, but a good GM that has worked his way up has lots of contacts and knows what he is looking for. Now we have brought in a huge group of guys sharing a vision and you know each of these guys have access to other individual scouts that can be brought in. They are building their tree and it started with the GM and has sprouted and looks pretty darn good so far. This is spot on I think.

100% agree - I thought from the beginning he was a better 4-3 DE and I thought it was a bad fit for Rex, but Rex loved him some Tigers. Size and strength - I think he will be ok - I do not think he has the speed and quickness to just beat a RT off the ball, but I think he will be able to get some leverage and make a push.

This is where I am at - I think he is a good fit. I think he can set the edge and collapse the pocket - I do not think he will be beating guys based solely on quickness or anything. Somewhere between 6-8 sacks is a nice place to start and hopefully just some consistent play and he will be just fine. I just want to see him get better and be healthy.

I actually disagree - I thought both Shaq and Washington were poor fits for Rex and better fits for a 4-3. I think Darby can cover - so I think he will be alright. I do have very big concerns about Ragland, but I did not think he had enough athleticism as a LB no matter the system - he does have great instincts though - so we will see what they can get out of him.

I think it goes even a step further. Last year I was looking at all coaches in the NFL for the last several years (it was a thread about whether last year was a make or break year for the HC) and it turns out nearly every HC that is even middling successful makes the playoffs early in their career. If they had previous experience as a HC - they typically made the playoffs in year 1 or 2 with the new team and if they were rookie HCs it was typically year 2 or 3. The notable exception was Jason Garrett in Dallas who made the playoffs in his 4th full season. The only other HC that seemed to last was Fisher in StL/LA and then he was let go, but he was not really successful. It does not take several years to turn a team around and it does not take stability to turn a team around (both help maintain success though) - it takes talent and a HC that can motivate that talent and puts them in a position to win. I do not know how much talent the Bills have - I suspect it is more than the record indicated the last couple of years, but a bad HC did not put them in position to win. I like the current pairing and I am hoping they can begin the transformation, but we should know fairly shortly quickly if they are taking the team in the right direction and whether they can capitalize on any early success or will they fall flat.

This is the issue - if Mahomes is good for KC - it does not mean the Chiefs did a better job because there is no way to know how Mahomes would have done in Buffalo instead. It is the same issue that I have with people saying we missed on Wilson a couple of years ago. With our staff at that time - Wilson would not have gotten the opportunity and then the coaching staff changed. I think Wilson would of been a totally different player here than in Seattle. I feel the same way about Mahomes. I do not think the Bills felt he was a great fit and therefore even if he succeeds in KC - that does not mean he would of succeeded here - if the fit was bad - he would have a higher chance of failing, but I understand the thoughts.

It might - I think he is better out of the pocket, but he will also be exposed a bit more. It will be interesting to see because I remember having discussions if the Bills looked more at how NO used Bree's could that help TT and it was polarizing as everything seems to be.

Fahey is interesting person to listen to and hear his discussions - I would not say he has zero credibility - he does look at the film and does compare people from the film. He also seems to understand some of his limitations (at least when you hear him talk). As I have stated a few times in this thread - I think his numbers and thoughts make sense - the issue I have is trying to use those numbers to make a valid ranking of TT. I think the numbers look good because of the offense and the throw choices. The truth falls someplace down the middle - TT was not a very good QB last year and even the OP recognized that as he was ready to move on after the Pittsburgh game, but somehow the last 2 games - Cleveland and Miami - changed his mind totally. I personally don't care - I want to see a winner - I do not think that TT will bring that - I think TT will be exactly what he has shown - a middle of the road QB that is just holding down the spot.

First this has thread has gone all over the place, but it keeps going to extremes when in actuality the extremes are not the issue - Is TT the best or worst QB in the league - Nope - he is a middling QB. He puts up good numbers in some categories and lower numbers in others. He will never be confused with an Aaron Rodgers or a EJ Manuel - he is just a guy in the middle of the pack - same as Alex Smith or Siemian or Tannehill. If you have ever listened to Fahey - he admits he is a numbers/analytics guy. He is very new to football and he readily admits that there are many nuances that he does not fully understand - he watches film and makes counts of situations. Therefore he bases many of his decisions on the numbers strictly and makes some mistakes (as everyone does) because of how the numbers and the play look. That is not good or bad - it is who he is. One of the things I think he is very wrong about is Wins if Transplant is quoting him correctly. There is not a set percentage that you can attribute to wins, but QB play is the single biggest driver of wins and losses in the NFL. It is why a QB change prior to a game can move the point spread as much as 4-6 points in some cases. It is why an injury to a QB in preseason can change a projected teams win/lost record by 3-4 games whereas any other position player going out has almost no impact. Look at the Bills - having TT as the QB - the Bills are projected to be a 6-7 win team. What would you expectations be is Yates takes over as the starting QB. The projected win total drops to what 3 wins and that is a change from a middling QB to a lower tier QB. Conversely if the Bills had Brady/Rodgers/Big Ben - the win total would go up to 8-10. The QB matters in individual games and over the course of a season. Every win or every lose is not on the QB alone, but when you get to the end of the year - it gives a pretty good idea of the trend of the QB play. Shaw has brought up several times how TT numbers in the 4th quarter are not bad, but are essentially very consistent across quarters and across situations and that does not surprise me because late in games - you do not see TT take many additional risks or make a higher percentage of plays (or fail more because of interceptions) - he is steady. Overall the biggest issue I have with this entire thread is when we are talking about Fahey's ranking - he lists most of the rankings based on percentage and that makes an assumption that if TT threw the same numbers of passes as other Abs - those percentages do not change and that is where I have my concerns. TT had an average TD percentage, but his 17 TD passes and his 201 yards/game put him near the very bottom of the league in raw numbers (24th and 31st respectively). Those fall right in line with where his attempts per game and other raw stats fall. It is part of the reason QB play is difficult to quantitate using stats. What he means is he was asked to do very little - he did many things well, but did not excel in any phase of the game - he is fairly consistent. He is the very definition of a journeyman QB. A guy that can get you through games, but not a QB that is going to suddenly explode. He is a good bridge QB and that is why they got him on what is essentially a 1 year deal - rather than his previous essentially 3 year deal and the Bills have some options to decide how they want to go forward.

See it is stuff like this that causes issues. The key statement in the entire thing is when did this occur. This supposed example occurred just months after Ralph's passing when Russ was the de facto owner in charge. I am pretty sure that Whaley would of needed his approval to make that trade - just as he would of needed Ralph's in the past or Terry's now. I think Russ had little impact on the decision, but when Whaley came to him and it was Whaley's guy - Russ in his typical manner was very gang ho and very team oriented. If you watch Russ at all - once a decision is made - he gets behind it 100% and tries to sell it to the entire organization. In any regards - that is no longer part of his job - so people point to things like that as if he should not have been involved - even as acting owner of the team and an active part of the sales/transition of the team to the Pegulas. As to the Rex Ryan fiasco - did he have some input - Yes. The Pegulas have repeatedly stated they did not have enough contacts to ask the right questions and requested that Russ reach out around the league for candidates. Russ did not have the final say, but was requested for input and once the Pegulas decided on Rex - he did not want him to leave because he knew Atlanta at the time was looking at the hire also.

Exactly - Pegs has stated and confirmed by Sal on WGR - that Russ due to years of service is actually fairly connected to others both inside and outside the league (former GMs and team presidents). They are not relying on Russ to do a search - just reach out for background information and roles from people in the know. The people that just hate him from long ago - will state he still has input, but in reality it appears he is just a research/Info gatherer. Either way - I have nothing against Russ - he is just a guy in the front office and if he stays or goes it is no impact to me.

I would not trade the two - they are too similar in my mind. The advantage would be cap savings and control, but you have a potential at a QB that could be worse. To me Watson was a draft option to grow under TT, but I would not want Watson without TT on the roster. I am not sure any of the top QBs will be more than low to mid-level QBs from this draft - so if I was going to trade TT give me a more polished pocket passer not Watson.

I think you need to go back and look at my statements and stop trying to lump me into something I am not. I have repeatedly stated that I thought TT would win the QB job - even if they have a competition. I am not convinced he will end the year as a starter because I do not anticipate with the potential schedule and the number of higher level QBs (yes better than TT even if some of the numbers are not as lofty) that we face that 2017 is going to be a good year. Hopefully I am wrong, but I see 5-6 wins - unless something really changes in the next couple of months. Therefore I would not be surprised to see them look at other potential candidates on the roster. I have also stated - I think TT biggest challenge will be whatever QB they decide to draft early next year. I would love to see an true open competition (ala Seattle) to see what Peterman has and allow him and TT (and Yates and Cardale) to really shoot it out to see who truly is the best fit, but I think McDermott would prefer a veteran and a guy that is safe and that describes TT. As to your coach speak - I understand, but typically coach speak is more generic and things like "I will have a competition at every position" when you know a guy like Dareus is going to start. Most of the time coaches (HC or OCs) do not pile on about a players negatives. Finally again - I have repeatedly stated that we will see what TT has to offer in this offense - I do not expect a lot of improvement because he has to this point not demonstrated an ability to quickly read and digest a play and make throws quickly, but he is very athletic and maybe a good fit for Dennison's offense. If you are going to mis-represent me at least get something close, but it is obvious that you think you know what I think without actually reading my comments.

I am not always correct and thank you for the kind words. There are many things that sites like PFF and Fahey put together that is amazing work and should be appreciated and could not be done in the past, but even they acknowledge that many times they are just numbers and more understanding is needed to see how they fit. Fahey rightly points out many positive things that TT does well and TT overall numbers fall in an above average location and even on the old BBMB - Shaw would point out many positive things like TT passing rating in 2015 and all of those things are part of a bigger picture. The next question becomes can he take another step and make the plays that are needed to win games or does he become like Colin Kaepernick a limited success guy that as more was added to his plate shrank back.