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Everything posted by harmonkillebrew
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Franchise in trouble- Josh Allen has regressed
harmonkillebrew replied to RoscoeParrish's topic in The Stadium Wall
Time to build around Josh. Invest in the Offense. Everything else is secondary -
Definitely think the Bills need to make changes to get more physical in the trenches. But the slush and snow exacerbated it, turned it into a major flaw and contributed to the blowout. I don't think Allen and Co are limited to 10points in better conditions, but hell, you can't bank on Mother Nature to be so kind to you in January. Stupid planning and team construction. Hopefully Beane gets it right this offseason.
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Beane will make moves. One thing I've come to expect is that Beane will deal. The Von signing last year was totally unexpected but he made it happen. I think he'll make major moves with the OLine and WR corps and next year (prob RB too) we'll all be excited to see Josh work with new tools. I don't think Cooridnators will change though, so all this new talent might go for naught.
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True and not being physical is even more glaring when you're playing on slush. Put the Bills and Cincy in a dome and maybe we can hang.
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We got screwed by that unfinished game in so many ways. Not to say our inept coaching staff would have learned anything and been better prepared anyways.
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Tampa game last year is a good comparison. Changed our mentality entirely moving forward. So, I guess people are buying the McDermott line that we peaked too early? I'm still blaming that wet, heavy snow
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I wouldn't count him out yet. But he'd need to be realistic in his ask. We don't have a replacement on the roster, so that would be one more gap to fill.
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Do you still trust the defense at all?
harmonkillebrew replied to Sharky7337's topic in The Stadium Wall
At full strength, the D is pretty darn good. I trust Daquan, Von, Micah, Tre (at full strength, Milano, etc.. I don't trust the backups or the situational play calling. Coaching sucks and player development sucks. Hopefully we are healthier next year, although with an aging core that will be tough -
10 points on Offense is the real outlier here. We have never been that bad, including against much better Defenses. The Bengals also have not been that great of a D this year and only held a team to 10 points or less once this season (the Browns). Even Huntley and the Ravens scored 17 on them the prior week. That makes me think something else was going on beyond the Bengals and their great DC. I think the Bills came out flat. I think the wet snow and footing affected Allen and the Offenses execution (we have smaller, quicker WR and rely on deep passes). And I think the Bengals are a tough matchup for us, especially in the snow, where our quickness is neutralized and lack of size (both on D and O) is exposed. Play this game in better conditions and I think it plays to our strength and it's closer. That said, playoffs are in January and we play in Buffalo, outside, for god's sake. We need to be built to pound the rock with a mauling Oline and bigger RBs. We need better Offensive schemes and WRs/TEs that can make contested catches. We need to build an O that is not so damn reliant on Allen to make plays time and time again. We need a stout Dline that can't be moved, even in the snow, not just quick, undersized DTs/DEs.
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Not bad. thoughts? https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2023-nfl-playoffs-picks-eagles-top-49ers-in-nfc-title-game-thriller-bengals-beat-chiefs-in-afc-championship/ Releases (cap savings): WR Isaiah McKenzie ($2.6M) S Siran Neal ($2.2M) C Mitch Morse ($5.1M) The Morse release wouldn't be a move the Bills would be happy making, but given he suffered another concussion this season and the fact he's turning 31 in April, it would hardly come as a shock. Morse was a low-key vital piece to Allen's maturation, and even took a pay cut to stay with the team previously. These are the type of difficult decisions teams have to make when there's a huge quarterback contract on the books. Morse retiring wouldn't be surprising either. McKenzie's hyped summer never materialized into a breakout, and at this juncture, even his $2.5M cap hit in 2023 is not an worthy expenditure for the Bills. Neal has been a quality special teamer. As a defender, he's never found his footing in any one role. Restructures QB Josh Allen This restructure was essentially bound to happen after Allen signed his well-deserved, monster extension in the summer of 2021. The simple restructuring of the soon-to-be 27-year-old's contract will create $21.5 million in cap space, bringing Buffalo's total to around $27 million. Around $10 million needs to be saved for the 2023 draft class and low-level re-signings. Notable re-signings (2022 cap hit) LB Tremaine Edmunds ($12.7M) EDGE Shaq Lawson ($1.1M) Edmunds has matured into a key, unique cog in the middle of Buffalo's defense at 6-feet-4 and 250-plus pounds with tremendous range, high-end coverage ability, and recently shored up tackling reliability. He'll only be 25 in May, so Buffalo can push the large cap hit chunks of Edmunds extension well into the future. His 2023 cap hit could be as low as $3M or $4M. Lawson wasn't a game-changer in his second stint with the Bills. He did flash at times as a rusher and maintained his status as a quality outside run-stopper. He'd likely cost less around $1M on a one-year deal. At this stage, the Bills would have roughly $12 million in 2023 cap to spend in free agency. Notable free-agent signings (projected 2023 cap hit) S Andrew Wingard ($3M) G Will Hernandez ($2M) WR Greg Dortch ($3M) EDGE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo ($3M) Wingard was a full-time safety in 2021 in Jacksonville and emerged as a solid all-around player. In 2022, he was relegated to a reserve/backup role, seeing only 223 snaps. A truly versatile playmaker, Wingard is big and aggressive enough to make plays near the line but was a ballhawk in college as a free safety, when he was teammates with Allen at Wyoming. He feels like the type of lower-priced free agent with upside the Bills would love to develop in a starter role. Hernandez was an early second-round pick in the 2018 draft and while he mostly underwhelmed with the Giants, he turned in a quality 2022 in a prove-it situation with the Cardinals. With Arizona likely undergoing a rebuild of some sort, Hernandez is unlikely to be re-signed and would be a strong, wide-bodied instant starter at left guard for the Bills in 2023. Dortch is a young, former undrafted free agent who, when finally given an opportunity in 2022, showcased his dynamic abilities from the slot position. He forced a whopping 13 missed tackles on 52 receptions and did not have a drop all year. The Bills have promise at inside receiver with 2022 fifth-round pick Khalil Shakir, and Dortch would provide legitimate, veteran competition there. Okoronkwo went in the fifth round of the 2018 draft, and after largely being buried on the Rams depth chart at the beginning stage of his career, he signed a one-year deal with the Texans and was a pass-rushing success in Houston this past season with 36 pressures on 268 pass-rushing snaps (13.4% pressure rate), both of which were career highs. He's the smaller, bendy type rusher the Bills need to add to the outside pass rush group beyond Von Miller. Draft (mock selections) Round 1 - Parker Washington, WR, Penn State Round 2 - Darnell Wright, RT, Tennessee Round 3 - Joe Tippmann, C, Wisconsin Round 4 - Byron Young, DL, Alabama Round 5 - DeMarcco Hellams, S, Alabama Round 5 - Jaxson Kirkland, OL, Washington In the 2021 regular season, the Bills finished dead last in yards-after-the-catch-per-reception in the NFL at 4.22 yards. The improvement in that key statistic was negligible. Buffalo moved from 32nd to 31st in YAC per grab with a 4.42 yard average. The four teams in the conference title games were second, third, fifth and 11th during the regular season. The Bills must get better in that regard in 2023, and Washington is the ideal, bigger-bodied YAC specialist for Buffalo to select in Round 1. He forced 15 missed tackles on just 42 receptions in his final collegiate season and averaged 6.3 YAC per reception. We're at the beginning stages of draft season, so pegging where prospects will land now is impossible, but it feels like Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be off the board when the Bills go on the clock at No. 28 overall.
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Are the Bills committed to Ed Oliver in 2023?
harmonkillebrew replied to LabattBlue's topic in The Stadium Wall
Oliver was double-teamed all day. No having Daquan hurt. Phillips on a bum shoulder also hurt. Settle was a disappointment. I'd re-sign Oliver to a team friendly deal if possible. -
This offense was doomed from the start
harmonkillebrew replied to Steptide's topic in The Stadium Wall
Under-investment in the Offense, relying on Josh to float everyone. WRs - relied on Gabe, Knox and McKenzie to take the next step. They didn't. Brought back Beasely and Smoke when we realized it. RBs - Cook has potential, but motor has never been the complement Josh needs Oline - Brought in a washed up Saffold and generally a bunch of linemen that are better run blockers than pass blockers Coach - Dorsey made sense to replace Daboll, but we need to bring in someone with real experience and a track record This offseason needs to focus on surrounding Josh with better players/coaches -
So what is the first coach or domino to fall?
harmonkillebrew replied to Draconator's topic in The Stadium Wall
I think Dorsey has got to go. Josh regressed under him and the play calling was pretty unimaginative and poor situationally. Bring in a real offensive mind with experience that will help Josh and the rest of the O take the next step. -
Time to go all in on the OL - The grades
harmonkillebrew replied to ArdmoreRyno's topic in The Stadium Wall
Who was Morse's backup at C. Van Rotten? Bates? I feel like we've had decent C play when Morse has gone down. Plus, with his concussion history, guy should retire and we can use his cap elsewhere. -
Time to go all in on the OL - The grades
harmonkillebrew replied to ArdmoreRyno's topic in The Stadium Wall
We gotta rehaul the Oline. Guys aren't getting it done anymore. Protect the franchise. -
We took a big chance that Gabe and McKenzie would take the next step being thrust into starting roles. Everyone bought the Gabe hype after that KC game. But it was so bad they coaxed Beasely and Smoke off the couch mid-season. Simms is right on. Bills need to invest in Josh's weapons. Need to sign a few higher end veteran WRs and draft a WR in the 1st. Draft some interior Online and maybe bring in a vet RT to compete with Spencer Brown, who has been horrible in pass protection. Most teams build around their franchise QB. We've done the opposite in recent years.
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Saffold said guys were "exhausted" this week and "out of gas"
harmonkillebrew replied to Einstein's topic in The Stadium Wall
Bengals get a lot of mileage out of their grievance over the coin flip and such. But the Bills should have been sitting home last week as the #1 seed (rather than fighting the pesky Fish) and then be facing the Jags at home. Our reward for the traumatic Damar situation was vacating any chance at the #1 seed, which we were at the time. We could have used that rest, but I've never heard anyone cite that nor heard any players ever complain -
Reminds of JP for sure. cocky, big arm, mobile, crap mechanics and questionable pocket awareness. However, he's got Andy Reid and Alex Smith to learn from. We'll see if the Chiefs can develop him better than the Bills could JP
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Allen Hurns may be available
harmonkillebrew replied to BillsDiehard's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
can't you do trades with a player agreement to restructure? -
Just to add fuel to the fire.... This is why you don't let your lame duck GM run your draft. Kansas City Chiefs: Alex Smith vs. Patrick Mahomes Andy Reid is absolutely clear in saying Alex Smith is his guy. And I believe him. I've been one of Alex Smith's biggest fans. But it was Reid who brilliantly traded up to grab Mahomes as his quarterback of the future. Have you seen the rookie this preseason? It's like he was built in a quarterback factory, with skills that turn heads and drop jaws. And he's a great guy and leader. Alex Smith is the quarterback -- for now. But what happens if the reigning AFC West champions get off to a slow start in the regular season? What happens if Tyreek Hill is not being utilized as a downfield threat? What happens if the red-zone offense stalls? What happens if Smith looks like the scuffling quarterback he was in Kansas City's last real game, a frustrating home playoff loss to Pittsburgh? You know what everyone will be thinking ...
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The Insanity of Tanking Talk
harmonkillebrew replied to Flip Johnson's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Saying "tank" is alot easier, but means the same. It's a strategic decision to win less games now for future gain. Nothing wrong with that so long as you do it right and don't sacrifice your organizational culture in the process. The Bills are doing it well so far by denying it to kingdom come. Then Boldin went and retired adding fuel to the fire that we're a lost cause. -
All about trade offs. Is it worth foregoing your passion (and $2M) to play for the Bills? Not this team, not this year - so he realized. Edit: but how utterly demoralizing for the team, and embarasing for the coaches/FO to have a HOF player get a taste and change his mind. He did the right thing trying to soften the blow.
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Complete the tank, McBean. Do it.
harmonkillebrew replied to Pine Barrens Mafia's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Probably depends on how desperate they are. If it's a contender and their starting RB goes down, they might give up a high pick -
Complete the tank, McBean. Do it.
harmonkillebrew replied to Pine Barrens Mafia's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
yeah, same basic idea. Trade him before he's gone - Watkins leaves as a FA, Shady retires (or gets cut). Applying the Watkins rationale to Shady, let's trade him to the Bengals for Jeremy Hill and a 3rd. -
Complete the tank, McBean. Do it.
harmonkillebrew replied to Pine Barrens Mafia's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Shady will be too old by the time we're competing again. Dareus should still be serviceable. Get what we can for Shady before he hits the wall (basically the same argument for trading Watkins). Who are contenders that need a RB? Baltimore? Philly? KC? Someone will give up a high pick