harmonkillebrew

What the commentators said, was a lack of trust/confidence in their hands. Others were going slow to make sure they didn't have a drop. Coleman was hitting it. Which is a good sign of his confidence and competitiveness. But doesn't mean he's fast. He does seem to have good short area speed, given his 10yd split and gauntlet speed, but the long speed is not there (hence consistent 4.62 40 and tape showing him blanketed on downfield routes)

We on the same page, man. Also have fingers crossed for June 1, but knowing Beane/McD they'll probably prioritize a rotational D-line signing

exactly. While it's good to see, it just means he was going for it at the combine drills while others were dogging it. I like that competitiveness, but his lack of long speed shows up on his tapes pretty clearly. Get in to your thick heads people, he's not fast. He will not be running go routes or taking the tops off of defenses. So we will be faced with the same issue as last year, where Defenses collapse on the short stuff. But he could/should excel underneath. He might end up more like Anquan Bolden - thriving underneath and breaking tackles to get 1st downs.

It makes all the difference in getting, but especially, maintaining separation on go routes, deep posts, and other late breaking, deeper routes. It also makes CBs have to play you differently know that threat is always there. Slower, big-bodied, possession college WRs simply can't win jump balls against much better, faster and stronger NFL CBs. Coleman's tape shows NO separation on deeper routes against college CBs. But he could excel at intermediate or short routes in the NFL if he perfects his trade and learns to run routes with precision. His general athleticism (and ideally confidence and work ethic) should compensate for the lack of long speed. Most of his good stuff is from the slot. So we'll have a bevy of slot, middle of the field guys and at this point no boundary WRs.

It's definitely not. That part of our game is gone. We are a full ball control, plod down the field team now, unless Cook or Samuel break one. That video confirmed what I've been saying. He gets no separation on the outside on deep/intermediate. But he will be good in the big slot role getting short area separation while out-muscling smaller slot CBs. He's not your classic #1.

Not sure of all the picks, but I would have done a few differently. When Brian Thomas dropped to the 20s I assumed a patented Beane move up was in the works. I would have tried hard to snag him. Don't know if the Bills did or not. But giving up the 2025 2nd we got for Diggs might have been the price and I would have paid it. I also would have tried to package those multiple 5th/6th rounders to move up again into the 4th or 3rd. Reportedly the value from Rds5-7 was not great this year. I definitely wouldn't have traded DOWN in the 5th like the Bills did. Pick 22: WR Brian Thomas, LSU - Bills trade #28 and 2025 2nd rounder with Eagles for #22 Pick 60: S Cole Bishop, Utah (same as Bills) 3rd Rd: I did like the KC trade in that it gave us a 3rd, but in this scenario its not there Pick 128: RB, Isaac Guerendo, Louisville Pick 141: WR, Anthony Gould, Oregon ..... The DE Javon Soloman and C/G Van Pran_Granger picks were solid and I would have taken them with our other picks if available, but if not I'm sure there was another guy worthy of the 5th/6th round flyer. Mekhi Wingo, DT was a guy I liked as a backup to Oliver. He went in the 6th Zion Logue, DT is a mountain and also could have been worth a 6th round flyer

hahaha. except NFL drafting is hardly a science. They've been screwing it up for so long, despite better data. See EJ, Mike Williams, Elam, Basham, Brady, Purdy, etc... When you know you don't have access to the right data, you have to employ other strategies besides pure trust in your analysis. Like your draft better. I wouldn't have gone McConkey (another slot) at 33 except that you were committed to adding an X in Rd 3.

Agree entirely. Bishop being the exception

People are overly fixated on the Benjamin-Coleman comparison. That's not the point. The point is Beane's tendency to draft bigger, slower WRs, going back to his time with Carolina where he was involved in drafting two of those types, and then trading a 3rd to bring the guy he drafted (Benjamin) to Buffalo. It's not about Coleman v. Benjamin per se. It's not the players themselves that are linked, it's the GM. Beane used his one WR draft pick shot on a guy that follows a failed trend he's used in the past. I appreciate that Cover 1 video and some of the data points the it put out. It helped me see more of his athleticism. But there are still two traits that are lacking - downfield speed and separation ability on mid/deeper routes. His initial quickness should help in the power slot role and on short routes. He'll be a reliable short field option with potential to break tackles and get YAC. But we've already got 3 of those guys. It seems the Bills are giving up on attacking downfield, trying to open up more intermediate/deep routes with faster guys with strong route running and separation. The Bills passed up a number of WRs that were higher rated. Even the Cover 1 guys, while trying to hype up Keon, said he was their 8/9th rated WR. The Bills seemed fixated on Coleman and passed up opportunities to be more aggressive, including hedging their bets by doubling down on a WR with a more boundary, downfield skill set. Really stinks to see the Bills piss away Josh's talent with paltry WR talent. Burrow has Chase, Higgins, and Boyd; Philly traded for AJ Brown then still drafted Devonta Smith. 49ers have Ayiuk, Deebo, and still drafted Pearsall. Ravens are constantly adding talent for Lamar, who is a much less talented passer than Josh. All those teams have gone farther than the Bills in the playoffs, including SB, consistently. And we have a rookie WR (2nd round pick) that we're banking on to step in as our #1 WR. It's an utter fail.

high character guy

I've been reading a few reports suggesting Coleman's skill set maps well to a power slot. Quickness at the line and strength/size to outcompete smaller slot CBs. Could be a real good recipe in the red zone. But now we have 4 slot WRs and 0 true boundary WRs. Are we just not going to work outside the numbers? Last season Gabe and Diggs were our boundary WRs (although Diggs played more and more in the slot). Both gone, no real boundary WR replacement except Coleman. I'm not down on Coleman per se, but he follows a Beane trend that hasn't worked out well before. If Beane had gotten another WR in the draft to complement Coleman's traits or signed a boundary WR in FA it would make sense. Still hoping that other shoe drops....

Makes the draft strategy a little more clear. Character guys and volume over skill and quality.

This thread is about Beane's seeming tendency, across many years, to like big-bodied slower WRs and maybe also slower RBs that run between the tackles. The similarities are there. Is Beane out of step offensively? Is McDermott? The Bills have taken a lukewarm approach to surrounding Josh with explosive weapons, since the Diggs trade. It's been a long standing issue. Gabe was a 4th rounder. That same draft (2020) they drafted AJ Epenesa and Zack Moss in the 2nd and 3rd (eerily similar RB/WR pattern to this year) The next draft it was 2 DEs in the top 2 rounds. There was a glaring WR need this year and it feels like the Bills had the wrong priorities. Didn't make us faster or deeper at WR. I might have changed my tune if they had drafted Franklin or Tez Walker in the 3rd/4th. But to just roll with Coleman seems risky.

It's many factors, but speed is the most reliable. His high jump was not as high as I would have thought. I think his contested catch rate also wasn't super great. I think he'll be like Gabe. If we hadn't traded Diggs, he'd be a good replacement for Gabe on the outside. Can he replace what Diggs used to be before 2nd half of the season, I'm just not convinced. I see you conveniently stopped at 2017, as Tyreek Hill was drafted in the 6th in 2016. Moore seems like a bust but Rice was pretty good as a rookie. Hardman had his moments. Everyone else was Rd 4-6. The one thing I see in that chart is that the Chiefs at least tried. They invested a 1st or 2nd in 4 out of the past 6 years. They're committed to getting weapons for Mahomes. I'm not sure the Bills are.

Robbie Anderson was/is a lanky burner. He ran in the 4.3s (I know its fashionable to dismiss the 40 suddenly, but it still matters as a metric among others) Coleman is much more muscular.... and slower. His split time is very solid and his gauntlet speed was impressive. He should develop into a solid middle of the field target. Some are saying he's a good deep threat because of his jump ball ability but I'm not buying that. CBs are too good in the NFL. Dominating long speed is the only way to beat them long. The Bills passed on some guys, like Worthy, that KC really liked. Are the Bills smarter than KC? We both needed WRs. They chose a fast, shifty guy, we chose a bigger guy with less long speed. We'll see who's right in the end, I guess. I think the difference is probably in offensive philosophy. The Chiefs still believe in big plays and speed. The Bills want to control the ball. I just fundamentally disagree with not trying to be explosive and hit big plays. With a guy like Josh, we need more WRs that can get open quickly on deep-intermediate routes, in addition to the Kincaid and Shakir's we already have on the team to work the short stuff. It's more than just speed. It's also route-running, physicality to beat the press, tracking the ball, and hands on over the shoulder catches. Gabe had a few of those traits, but not the speed. Coleman is similar, but just slower still. Samuel has never been a field stretcher despite the 40 time, probably due to lack of playing strength and maybe tracking.

I'm hopeful Shakir takes the next step. He came on strong at the end, but he had two established WRs taking away the best CBs. He'll now be more of a target. What bothers me is that we don't have a field stretcher anymore. That seems a shame with Josh's howitzer. You'd have thought that after trading Steph and letting Gabe walk that they might have made more of an investment - traded up, drafted two guys, etc... The Diggs trade for a 2025 pick in particular stinks for this year. I guess the plan is to see who Josh can float. Maybe he won't need a #1, but a variety of guys all on the same script.

God, I hope so. Evans is a freak - 6'5" and ran in the 4.5s. He had consistent college production as well - multiple 1,000 yd seasons I think. Coleman should be good, but I hope he doesn't end up like many so college big-bodied WRs that cannot simply overpower and out jump NFL CBs. That's been the record recently. It's now all about guys that get separation.

I'm looking forward to seeing what Samuel does with Josh, but that said he was the 3rd option in Wash and they passed a lot. He had a good year, but he averaged 9.9 yds/catch. He's more a secondary slot guy or competition for Shakir, rather than an outside down the field threat. I'm not upset with the Coleman pick. It's not my favorite. But I'm probably more upset with not doubling down. We needed an influx of youth and our depth is rough.

Agreed. This FO is wasting away Josh's prime years. They need to add a vet WR, but the question is who? not alot left... unless they trade

Speed matters. it's how you measure it effectively is how it's changed. GPS, 10-yd splits, etc.... Coleman's gauntlet drill speed was impressive. But everything I've read on him mentions his big body, contested catch, traits. I've not seen much about separation and certainly not speed. So he falls more into the Benjamin, Funchess, Marques Colston, mode. There are some good players out there with the same skill set. But what's interesting is that Beane really seems to like to draft them, even liked Benjamin so much that he traded a 3rd for him as well (when he got to Buffalo). That's the friggin point. Reading comprehension in decline on this board.

Didn't Beane also draft Devin Funchess? There has long been an assumption that big bodied outside WRs can outmuscle and make contested catches, but that has been debunked. It's separation that produces results, either from speed, quickness, or good footwork/routes. Teams have been going more and more for smaller WRs with great separation skills. Look at who Andy Reid added this offseason - Worthy and Hollywood Brown. People are pretty high on Coleman as a contested catch specialist with great hands, but can he separate consistently? We know Gabe couldn't. I don't know why Beane traded Moss for a guy they never used. He was still on his rookie K. I guess he wants a do-over. I'm not dogging any of these guys as players. I don't know enough about them as a fan. I'm just pointing out what seems to be a trend from Beane that seems old school, out of touch with the league, and counter to what the say themselves. They seem to like/want a plodding, ball-control offense.

All talk. You see the Chiefs and Dolphins, even Ravens adding speed with some measurable success. Then we go out and get slower. Coleman and Davis were both considerably slower than other guys available. Doesn't mean they will fail, but it does track to a Beane tendency that seems to be out of step with the league.

Beane has a real tendency for a certain type of player. Ray Davis is a Zack Moss clone Coleman isn't too far off from Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess. None of those guys panned out. Seems Beane consistently under values speed in skill players. I was hoping we'd come out of this draft faster and more explosive on O, but instead it's more of the usual. Coleman would have been a decent replacement for Gabe. Similar skill set. Is Samuel supposed to be the Diggs replacement? Hard to see us being better on offense. Or defense for that matter. They don't seem to have a vision or plan for getting better than the Chiefs. Feels like a reset year.

You'd think he would have been available by our 2nd 2nd round pick, even our third. Why pass up WRs with better pro traits and then not trade back or pick someone else

Interesting analysis on the 5th year option and 1st v. 2nd rd salaries and new CBA. Seems consensus now is that it's better to pick in the top of the 2nd then in the bottom of the 1st.