transplantbillsfan

This thread is a question of which QB you want moving forward, not which QB you would have wanted in their first 3 years. For that reason, it's important to consider the very different circumstances of each player... because the whole premise is the idea of giving each guy the other guy's circumstances moving forward. If only Duke Williams came down with that dime of a TD pass from Allen at the end of the 1st half.

Now you're being disingenuous. You made the initial accusation, not me. Most people watching that game saw Allen running for his life as an entirely and pretty seriously injured WR corps struggled to get open against a physical secondary. So, you made the claim... where are all these plays?

Who's arguing that Allen is better? Some of us are arguing Allen will be better, but I haven't seen a single person say that at this moment Allen is better.

He did, but having Diggs in 2019 wouldn't have hurt. And I refer us back to Alex Smith's interview about Andy Reid. If Josh is in KC and gets that redshirt year like Mahomes maybe his mechanics are fixed by the time he starts a full season (2nd year in the NFL) as opposed to his 3rd year in the NFL.

I have Gamepass and All-22 access... can you please direct our attention to the myriad of plays with guys running open and Josh missing them?

I've heard Greg Cossell in more than one interview call Josh Allen the most talented QB in the NFL, 2021 draft picks like Lawrence included. One of those was on The Herd and I think another was on One Bills Lite with Chris Brown and Steve Tasker.

To build off this... by year 3 on their respective teams one won a league MVP and a Super Bowl and the other came in 2nd in league MVP voting and made it to a conference championship game. Even in a vacuum--without considering the respective circumstances I keep coming back to--those 2 QBs aren't far apart.

Don't you understand that this swapping of circumstances is the entire point of this exercise, though? Mahomes would now be in Buffalo with below average Tight Ends (which he relies heavily on), no capable running game (which he's had pretty much his entire stint in KC) and no deep threat speedsters like Hill and Hardman. Allen, on the other hand, would get an upgrade in weapons (Kelce, Hill, Hardman), a capable running game, and an offensive coach who is a QB guru. We make that trade and I am sure both players are still great, but giving Allen that might let him improve over the next few years than he will in Buffalo... especially when we lose Daboll. Allen goes to KC and becomes the GOAT. That’s a Buffalo swap... I'll give you guys that.

Really? You can't piece that together? There were similar evaluations of Mahomes and Allen coming out. Mahomes had one circumstance I would call ideal. Allen had another circumstance where he was thrown to the wolves. Now swap players and circumstance and speculate away... understand? Well said

No. Not that he's "only better than Josh because of the talent around him." I'm saying (because I'm probably one of the ones you're referring to) that Mahomes has had the incredible benefit of circumstance at the start of his career... almost the opposite of Allen. That's not to say that Mahomes isn't uber talented. He is. It's to say that you need to consider all of those circumstances in this situation, especially considering that as Josh's circumstances have been getting better, his improvement has been as drastic as you see on a year by year basis. This is very close as far as discussion goes. And Mahomes is better right now. I'll say that again... right now, Patrick Mahomes is better as a QB than Josh Allen. But it's gotten very, very close after 2020. So, one camp is in "I'll believe it when he is better" mode. But this is an exercise that legitimately does ask you to project into the future... even if it's the immediate future. This is projecting what they will do. And the camp that I'm in is that I've watched a QB who didn't have the traditional QB upbringing with all the 7 on 7 camps and grew into his body late (you can verify that from multiple videos and interviews you can find from him and family members) and played at a JuCo getting likely very little NFL development and then played at tiny Wyoming as a raw prospect come into the NFL with a crap team around him and show some flashes in his rookie year, then drastically improve going into his 2nd year with some more talent surrounding him, then drastically improve again in year 3 with even more talent and continuity of system. I view all of this as a perfect storm for continued improvement from Allen. Continuity in OC, continuity in weapons (swap Brown for Sanders... probably an upgrade), continuity in OL (something Mahomes is getting almost entirely new in front of him). I see all these things and wouldn't make the trade because I believe Allen will continue to improve that much more. And even if we're talking player for player swaps, the changing of teams, teammates, coaches, culture, etc. would have an impact on both players if they were to switch teams. Mahomes and Allen are likely to be 1A and 1B in the NFL for the next decade plus... at least I believe they will be. And I think Allen in Buffalo has a very likely shot to be 1A for much of that stint.

Yes. Your opinion. I think people forget how questionable Mahomes was as a prospect coming into the NFL. And I bring this back to that Alex Smith interview where he's talking about how Andy Reid teaches QBs. We'll never know, obviously, but giving Allen a redshirt year in the NFL behind a smart, established vet QB willing to work with him and a QB whisperer as a Head Coach pretty obviously would have made Allen's first 2 years of playin vastly better than what they were in Buffalo. I've been trying to make it very clear that I think Mahomes is an amazing QB. I just believe that Allen will be better... but that doesn't mean I won't think Mahomes is great. If Mahomes and Allen are 1A and 1B in the NFL in either order, Beane and Co. were brilliant in the drafts of 2017 and 2018. Actually gotta give it to you. I remember you really pounding the table for him in the draft process and saying he was going to be a star.

Maybe. But Josh's last game wasn't as bad as Mahomes's last game.

Holy Crap... The bolded... reverse it... consider Allen's entry into Football and his first couple years vs Mahomes... that's why you don't trade Allen for Mahomes.

Before Mahomes Andy Reid made Alex Smith a pro bowler, turned Mike Vick into a legitimate passing threat, coached Kevin Kolb into the mirage of a good QB so he could stay in the NFL and get a lucrative contract, and brought Philadelphia to the NFC Championship 4 years in a row with non HOF talent on offense save for one year with T.O. We all love Daboll... now. Andy Reid is very clearly the superior play caller and QB developer. It's absolutely foolish to argue otherwise.

Did you watch the Super Bowl? His last game in the NFL was his worst game. It's possible the league is figuring out how to slow him down.

Here's what I think is really interesting: the bolded statement is exactly the argument in 2018 to not draft Josh Allen--as we've rehashed already, I was in that camp making that argument. And the 2018 season was exactly why all the Josh Allen skeptics were proven right about him--he became a Meme himself. And the 2019 season was still exactly why the skeptics were proven right--"he's inaccurate and can't even break 60% in a 'good year!" If the past is predictive, maybe it's time to use that same logic with Josh Allen, who keeps proving doubters wrong and drastically improving. It seems you and @FireChan think Allen has hit his ceiling and is about to hit a wall. Am I wrong? If past is predictive as you say it is, it's logical to say Allen will be better than Mahomes in 2021. And that's one of the reasons I believe you don't make that trade.

The conversation has been about what Mahomes had in Kansas City was already established and Elite. Kelce was already an Elite Tight End before Mahomes started a game. You know precisely what our discussion has been, yet you pivoted claiming that "Kelce has Mahomes to thank" and then brought his 3 previous years in rather than the most recent 2--where he averaged 84 receptions, nearly 1,100 yards, 6 TDs and 9 yards per Target--because that extra year skews his numbers a little down for you, despite the fact that even adding that year in Kelce still averaged 1,000 yards and 6 TDs a year. Kelce was an Elite Tight End already and Mahomes clearly benefitted from that. As another poster said... much the same way that Diggs was already an Elite WR before he came over to Buffalo. Receivers and QBs benefitted. The point is that Mahomes has been extremely reliant on his Elite Tight End throughout his entire career and you're insinuating that Mahomes would somehow make Knox better. @HappyDays aptly brought up Kelvin Benjamin because of that... and it was a good comparison based on the silly argument you made that it was Allen who was holding Knox back somehow, yet Benjamin caught more than 10 times more passes with Allen for more than 10 times more yards. Soooo... what are you going to say next???? "Well obviously Benjamin caught fewer balls in Kansas City because there were better weapons so he didn't see the field as much"

It's a pretty apt statement considering what you said. I haven't hid from any of my dislike of Allen during the draft process, so I don't know what you think you're accomplishing. My dislike of Allen during the draft process was based on a flawed premise... essentially the same premise in terms of most of the dislike of him: Analytics. I watched very little of him (I watch very little college ball, anyway), so I was relying on analytics. But there are posters here like @GoBills808 here and guys who watch the film like Mel Kiper who really liked him. That was a scouting argument, not an analytics one. I have no problem with people bringing that thread back to the forefront to remind me of it. I was very, very wrong. And I'm very, very glad. Brevity is the soul of... someone who knows they're miserably losing an argument. Sad that you just resort to personal attacks and cherry pick the portions of an argument you want to respond to (apparently with personal attacks) rather than actually having a rational discussion. Are you capable of having a rational discussion?

Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes, and Yes That doesn’t mean people outside of the fan base are right. People outside of the fan base viewed Josh Allen as some form of a laughing stock for his first 2 years. This fanbase did not. Who was right?

The underlying and obvious assumption on your part in your previous post was that it's Mahomes who made Kelce great. Kelce was already great. And it was with Alex Smith at QB. Knox has been a below average Tight End. He was even a below average Tight End with an Elite QB throwing to him in 2020. Mahomes would have obviously had to find his production elsewhere... and once again, despite the fact that Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have been with the Chiefs and were already really good players even with Alex Smith throwing to them (Tyreek Hill had 75 receptions and nearly 1200 yards in Mahomes's redshirt year), he would have had Kelvin Benjamin, Deonte Thompson and Charles Clay as his "big 3" for weapons if he had to start in year 1 with Buffalo in 2017 (likely) or would have had Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones and Charles Clay if he managed to get all of 2017 off (unlikely) in Buffalo like he did in KC. This isn't about being a homer. This is you disregarding the reality that comparing Kelce and Knox is ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS!!! Haters gonna hate...

No. Now you're just plain wrong. Yes, Kelce got better statistically when Mahomes came in, but Kelce was already talked about as one of the best Tight Ends in the NFL with Alex Smith as his QB. In each of the 2 seasons before Mahomes started Kelce had over 1,000 yards and over 80 receptions. And I wonder how much you watch the Bills? Knox's biggest issue (especially in his first 2 years) is that he drops way more passes than he should. Are you trying to say that Knox wouldn't drop passes if Mahomes were his QB? Because Mahomes is just so good that he has the power to make you catch balls you would otherwise drop from inferior QBs?

Yes. He would have already had them. And maybe it's Allen winning league MVP in 2018 and the Super Bowl in 2019. Or maybe Allen and his Chiefs beat Brady and the Patriots in 2018 and win it in year 1. No it doesn't but if they made the trade Mahomes would be on a completely different team with completely different weapons and completely different coaches. Swapping Mahomes and Allen as Fairburn oddly brought up completely neglects what each player walks into. Mahomes wouldn't have a dominant (or even capable) TE like Kelce, who was 2nd in the NFL in YAC and was tied for 1st in Big plays last year with Justin Jefferson and Calvin Ridley last year. He'd have Knox. Kelce has been targeted by Mahomes by far more than any other player on the team and over the last 3 years has averaged 144 targets, 102 receptions, 1,327 yards and 9 TDs per season. Sure looks like Mahomes relies heavily on his Tight Ends and we don't really have any good ones in Buffalo.

I don't think anyone can be the GOAT without those Super Bowls. I still think it's Brady, then Montana, then you talk about everyone below them. Mahomes needs a minimum of 3 more to even talk about him being the GOAT. And Allen needs to start winning some and would need at least 4. In terms of the career passer rating, I think that's actually the one Allen could catch up to. I don't think Allen will catch up to total passing TDs or total passing yards for Mahomes, though.

I don't know if you caught this, but it's worth a watch: Now, I direct you to this because in it Alex Smith talks specifically about Andy Reid in terms of QB development. Smith says that most coaches don't really focus on things like mechanics for QBs. He says that when a QB throws it too high, most coaches will just say "gotta get that down." Or when you miss someone, most coaches say "you gotta hit that WR." Smith says that Reid wouldn't do that. Instead he would point out legitimate mechanical flaws in your stance and delivery in order to help you out. Now, Patrick Mahomes had this as his Head Coach for his entire rookie redshirt year as he worked through fixing his game and mechanics, which the vast majority of draft analysts in 2017 said he needed to do. What you're doing is completely dismissing the incredible benefit this was for him and completely dismissing the fact that Allen really didn't have anyone other than Jordan Palmer as someone reputable to work with on his mechanics, and that was only in the offseasons. Ken Dorsey didn't even join the team until Allen's 2nd year. Now put Allen on the Chiefs. Give him a redshirt year and Andy Reid. And put Mahomes on the Bills. It's delusional to believe Mahomes would still be Mahomes if those situations were swapped. And yeah, you're right, Mahomes has been better than Josh. That doesn't mean he will be moving forward. You're right, that's brevity. It's also a weak and neglectful argument.

Ah, so you acknowledged it's actually a rational argument... Finally! Why is this a problem? You've also neglected the EXTREMELY important factor of redshirt year behind a smart, 10+ year vet QB who was a former #1 draft pick and a QB guru developing him as his head coach. I would have expected a rise. Even a significant rise, maybe. I just don't know if it would have been the same. Allen had an AWFUL team surrounding him on offense in his rookie year. His OL was TERRIBLE! Mahomes appears to be more injury prone than Allen so far. And that's with significantly more offensive talent and a better OL. Would Mahomes have even made it through the amount of games Allen did considering even Allen got injured? Mahomes also isn't the runner Allen is. I think we can all acknowledge that. Would Mahomes have been able to even do anything in his rookie year with the likes of Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones, Robert Foster and Charles Clay as his weapons? You seem to think he would have, right? Have you also assumed he was drafted by Buffalo in 2017 and was developed in the same way he was in KC in 2017? That seems to be what you're assuming. Sorry. I wasn't brief. But your reference to Hamlet is inappropriate considering it was stated ironically (dramatic irony) in a situation where a character is not engaging in discourse but is instead trying to explain something he was told.