transplantbillsfan

It breaks it down into less than 3 yards, 3 to 7 yards, 8+ yards. Taylor ranks as followson those passing plays where he does not scramble (which in all probability would actually increase his percentage since he such an effective scrambler... he was 10/16 on such plays on 3rd down in 2015): 3rd and short- 10th (16 plays) 3rd and medium-27th (51 plays) 3rd and long- 8th (51 plays)

You know the work is already done, right? http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=047&type=Passing&year=

Taylor was 8th in the NFL in third and long conversion percentage on passing plays in 2016.http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=047&type=Passing&year= I can't find the numbers for 2015 at the moment, but I remember distinctly that in 2015 his numbers were even better. That website had the same numbers for 2015, but I can't find a link to those numbers for that year anymore. I probably have it somewhere, but if I recall correctly I think he was about fifth or sixth and third and long conversion percentage on passing plays in 2015. Just think, for example, of that third and 24 or whatever yardage it was against Seattle with Taylor throwing a beauty to Robert Woods on the sideline for a conversion. Taylor is actually a QB you do want on third and long, probably because of the threat of him running as well. In 2015, I know that on passing plays where Taylor tucked the ball and ran (aka: scrambled) he converted 10 out of 16 of those third downs, which would actually increase his third down percentage in 2015 by more than 3% alone if those plays were factored in. It's weird the way perception very often does not match reality when it comes to what Taylor has accomplished or even what he's good at.

Kind of funny you ask this question because Taylor has been one of the best QBs on third and long over the last two years. That's actually a statistical fact.

I disagree about the first two weeks. I'm not saying that they should be disregarded completely, but Roman was fired after a game where the team put up yards and points. The problem in those first two games was that the offense couldn't stay on the field. And yes, Taylor was a part of that for sure. But it's pretty telling that the offense of coordinator was fired, again , After a game where the team put up yards in points. The bills had a 39% three and out percentage in those first two games. And one of those other drives that wasn't a three and out was an interception thrown on third down in Romans "all or nothing" offensive playcalling mentality. It's third and one and in typical Roman fashion he calls it down field throw rather than moving the chains. It's great when it works, but a low percentage play and it turns the ball over to the other team. That was as bad as a three and out if not worse. And that's Roman. All that changed once Lynn came in as the offense of coordinator. And back to the promise of the original post, that's why I believe there's a lot of optimism and Taylor thriving and this West Coast offense.

How what works? Math? I agree. Roman's offense was never a problem. It was his game preparation/planning and play calling. I'm sure that's why he was fired.

Are you drunk? We'll see, but one thing's clear You sure aren't having the first laugh

Subtract the last game where he didn't play along with the first two games where an offensive coordinator who would be fired (and apparently the team wanted to fire him as early as the summer) call the plays and the bills were 14th in the NFL and three and out percentage.

These discussions are only fun as long as you are grounded and some sort of reality, which you are no longer a part of. Right now you should go take a look at that chart. If 69% of the passes thrown in 2012 were outside the numbers that means that 31% were "inside the numbers." I don't know if those middle numbers of 31% start from the outer or inner edge of the numbers, but 31% is less than 1/3rd already. Look at all those passes that come into your beloved 1/3 of the field just inside those numbers. There are a lot! What percentage of those sideline throws do you honestly think or throwaways? Furthermore, what percentage of those sideline throwaways were plays that were not designed to go to the sidelines anyway? If you honestly think that those sideline throwaways combined with those passes inside the numbers that equate to your outer 1/3 of the field still somehow translate into an even distribution across the deep portion of the field, you're in fantasyland. This is fun and all, but it's clear even with evidence right in front of you, you'll fight with all of your might just so you can be right. Sounds like a good nursery rhyme with you as the main character

The Bills don't get very many three and outs with Taylor at the helm and an offense of coordinator focus on moving the chains rather than all or nothing plays the way Roman was. They were 14th in the league and three and out percentage in the 13 games Taylor was running Lynn's offense.

Here's a pretty good example of you guessing or twisting numbers to fit into your own narrative. I assume that you came up with those numbers because you went outside of the numbers and assumed that pro football focus was Considering the middle of the field everything from the sideline edge of the numbers all the way to the middle of the field. If that were the case your percentages would be accurate, but more than likely the left and right sides include the numbers themselves. and if that's the case, the numbers are actually this: The left side: 26.3% of the field The right side : 26.3% of the field The Middle: 47.5% of the field

Hmmm... fascinating... The chart also immediately reveals the importance of the sideline, particularly downfield. Of passes thrown more than 20 yards, 69 percent are directed between the numbers and the sideline, while only 9 percent target the area between the hashes. Whoa... and, Although at first glance the pattern may appear mostly symmetric, NFL quarterbacks target receivers on the right side (46 percent) of the field more than the left side (41 percent). So given this article with this chart and data along with the 2013 chart that looks about the same, it sure seems like QBs don't throw to the deep middle (especially if we were to divide the field in thirds ) nearly as much as they throw to the deep side sidelines. Found my keys, they were right here under the streetlightwhere things are well lit, after all. I'm going to the store to get some Scotch, you guys want some?

Except for his game winning drives against Tennessee and Houston last year and Jacksonville this year. So 3 games is "never?" And "like always thanks to TT"? Seriously? Did you watch the last Game he played in or the game against Seattle? Wow I forgot that you were the guy that was banned in record time on this board for pushing a guy who might be on another teams practice squad this year. Bravo! Sounds like a previously band troll under many different names on multiple boards.

#gogetThurmunderthestreetlight

Wow You're living in your own world aren't you? Coach mentions middle of the field and clearly he's talking about the deep portion of the field but clearly he's not talking about the short portion of the field because that's where Taylor is good? Are you making this up as you go along? That sure is what it seems like. Gilman was considered the father of the passing offense. The West Coast offense and other offenses have come down from that. Where is there a reference to dividing the field in three? These are conclusions your drawing in your own fantasy land. You have it right there, essentially saying that the father of the modern passing game divided the field horizontally and five, and yet you are so arrogantly saying that obviously the offensive masterminds who followed figured out that they needed to narrow that down to three, rather than five. The problem is, you don't have any evidence. and if the field were divided in three, don't you think coaches would be wiser to use the landmarks like numbers and sidelines rather than subjective vision? Thurm, You've been very entertaining with your snide street light remarks and the arrogance of your posts directed at me, but maybe for once you should just admit that an argument you're making is your own, and one you made up, and not something that clearly and obviously shared by everyone in the NFL.

So the coaches talk about the middle of the field and we are required to believe that it's not just the middle, but it has to be the middle one third rather than the middle area that coaches can easily and clearly see in game film and on the field, all those passes between the numbers or between the hashmarks? Apparently you think coaches care about geometry? And remember, you're the one saying the coaches made the statements about the middle of the field. There has never been anything said about the deep middle. There has never been anything said about the middle one third. You're just arbitrarily choosing something based on watching film of one player who you are clearly biased against, which is fine because we are all biased in someway as human beings. However, it would've been relatively easy to show that you have some level of credibility when it comes to this by looking comparatively at the other quarterbacks across the NFL. Instead, you refuse to do this and continue to latch onto what you witnessed in a vacuum with your own biased eyes. And what's funny here is that I've never said after 2015 that Taylor didn't need to work on the intermediate middle portion of the field. This whole discussion continues because your absolute an incredible obsession with the deep portion of the field. And you've been proven wrong, time and time and time and time again. Apparently your latching onto two passing charts by two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, one of them being probably the greatest quarterback in NFL history, and that was only one chart from one year, and somehow you think that's definitive proof that all QBs spread the ball exactly evenly or even close to it to the deep portion of the field. It's ridiculous. Middle third is not a thing, Thurm. no one uses it other than you, which is why I suspect you've come back here trying to give the runaround. Couldn't find a single quote from a coach or NFL GM or anyone regarding the middle third of the field, could you? Now, as far as the 2016 season goes, Taylor has clearly improved as far as effectiveness when throwing across the middle of the field. Middle third. Middle fifth. Middle middle. Whatever the hell you want to call it. Again, with whatever two charts you use for Brady and rivers, there were at least a dozen more from other quarterbacks and even Brady and Rivers from different years that blatantly demonstrate that quarterbacks simply don't go to the deep middle that much. By percentage, deep middle throws are the smallest percentage that a QB makes. For whatever amount of work you put into watching Taylor make every throw and charting all of those middle thirds to the deep and intermediate sections of the field, your conclusions are questionable at best, simply because you didn't put the rest of the necessary work and to draw those conclusions. You even said when you presented this initially that the problem with Taylor throwing to the deep middle portion of the field had more to do with frequency than anything else because frequency was what made him predictable. I don't think that anyone really would've disputed that Taylor needed to be better throwing to the deep middle portion of the field when he threw there. The big issue that you hold so strongly to is the fact that frequency was the issue, when it's clearly not.

Taylor finishes with 4000 yards passing and 30 passing touchdowns. The bills win a playoff game. You said bold, right? Ever the buzzkill aren't we Thurm?

And this is why we will never know. You said Taylor not having any family roots makes it so that it's more likely he would leave. I say it makes it so his family becomes more of his team. These are the guys he's grown close to and become friends with over the last two years. And like I said before, in the end will never know, but I remember how I was when I was single and I stayed in my job not for money but for lifestyle. Lack of a family makes settled lot easier to be persuaded by friends and teammates. You think going somewhere else is the way he would prove his mettle. I say staying in Buffalo, finishing what he started and trying to end his career as a successful QB with one team would be the best thing for him, I think leaving Buffalo would have been like tucking his tail between his legs and realizing he failed even if he made more money elsewhere.

Hey... welcome back

You have NFL game pass? I feel like those of us who post here this much might find it worth it Though I'm lucky if I make one game a year, so anyone who forks out the cash to go to several games a year, it's understandable if not

Yeah that's the one. Those shallow crosses and the timing routes were incorporated more under Lynn than Roman. You can rewatch a bunch of the passes to Powell and Tate in particular and Clay more as the year ended after Lynn took over as examples.

Wow Thurm... streetlight, huh? Glad I can just laugh this off and not view it as a petty, offensive, arrogant and pretentious post. To your last question, look at those numbers to "the middle" according to ESPN's splits. Taylor's YPA between the hashmarks is 8.7, not 6.9. Try retracing your steps... your keys are out there. Let's pick this up after you've found all those references to the "middle third" that must just be so incredibly plentiful since, as you point out, it's a thing. So find those quotes that are clearly out there... just one with a coach talking about a QBs passes to... "the.... middle... third... of the field." Here's something from an article about the modern passing game: In footballs earliest days, the forward pass was primarily about surprising the defense or attacking a single, isolated defender locked in man coverage. As defenses got more sophisticated, offenses evolved too, with the largest contribution coming from former San Diego Chargers head coach Sid Gillman, the Father of the Passing Game. Gillman refined passing into a calibrated, organized attack. His insights inform every throw youll see this fall. Realizing that a football field is nothing more than a 53⅓-yard-wide geometric plane, Gillman designed his pass patterns to stretch defenses past their breaking points. His favorite method was to divide the field into five passing lanes and then allocate five receivers horizontally in each one. Against most zones, at least one receiver would be open. Below is an image from one of Gillmans final playbooks with the Philadelphia Eagles. Field division in 5 here... not 3

Thurm, find me a single time an NFL coach has ever referred to the "middle third" of the field and I'll concede. I've seen "between the hash marks" and "inside" or "outside the numbers," all of which we have numbers for to various degrees. You say: As we both know, I've already googled your charts. And for the thousandth time, the charts you're talking about are the wrong charts. The word around the league on Tyrod is that he can't and doesn't throw to the middle of the field. The reason people think that is because when you watch the games you see he doesn't throw to the middle third. Even the coaches last offseason talked about wanting to get Tyrod throwing to the middle of the field. This isn't made up. This is a thing. and then you go on to lump "deep" and "middle third" into this whole thing as though it's clearly implicit in what the coaches say when it's not. So go find a coach talking about "middle third" since, apparently, as you say, this is a thing.

I reformatted your post numerically for me to answer: 1- I think there are very, very few QBs like you refer to. There was a lot of buzz in Seattle this offseason that they were considering drafting a QB early to "light a fire" under Wilson. But regardless, the answer to your question is yes because that's what he is. Taylor survived a coaching and regime change and was kept as the starter despite new coach and GM who often want to bring in "their guy." And say what you want about a weak draft class, but at least 2 NFL teams (including a pretty highly respected Andy Reid) thought 2 QBs were good enough to not just draft in the first round, but pay a hefty price to trade up for them. So I guess yes, because he is. 2- Again, yes. He's looked like an NFL QB the last couple years when out of college he wasn't nearly this NFL ready. 3- I've been through my thoughts on this a number of times here, but I think Taylor wanted to be in Buffalo to "finish what he started" because he's an uber competitive guy. He made that publicly known in a way on locker clean out day that took away some of his negotiating leverage. Taylor told his agent to see what was out there but unless team and offer absolutely WOWed him he wanted to be back in Buffalo. You seriously think Cleveland or the Jets wouldn't have offered Taylor more and given him the starter job? I'd throw Houston and maybe SF in there, too, given their QB situation at that time. But play for the Jets or Browns for more money...? I don't think Taylor wanted that. Everyone says players always follow the money and don't care where they play. I think that's crap. Taylor is a single guy with no family, which I think plays a role here. He's got his parents to help support, but by the end of this year Taylor will have made over $25 million in the span of his career thus far; plenty for him and his parents. If he had a wife and kids I could have seen him being more likely to follow the money. So ultimately, I think he wanted to be in Buffalo. 4- Given what I said above and the situation: yes. Glad you said it's your opinion. I disagree. But we're never going to know for sure.

Round and round and round we go Thurm. The argument you're making to the deep portion of the field is getting ridiculous. Google PFF's passing charts for different QBs and you're trying to bicker about a very tiny handful of passes... because that's all they are. You're right, QBs rarely go deep. And safeties are typically in the middle of the field. That's why, by percentage, the deep middle is the most avoided zone by the vast majority of NFL QBs. Oh sure, there might be random years where a Tom Brady or a Phillip Rivers throws more than normal there by percentage. But that equates to no more than a handful of passes. Google the passing charts I mentioned from PFF, you're going to see Taylor going to the deep middle by percentage more than Brady or Wilson (on at least the ones I found). But even that doesn't matter because it's literally a few passes we're talking about. And if you still so desperately want to argue the ineptitude of Taylor to the deep middle in comparison to his peers, well, be my guest. As for those ESPN splits I included, the Bills were dead last in the NFL in YAC and 30th in the NFL in terms of YAC/reception. Pretty simple logic that the fact that Taylor has the 3rd highest YPA on that list is a damn good sign that he's throwing the ball quite a bit to the deep and intermediate middle in comparison to his peers and pretty darn effectively, as well:flirt: