transplantbillsfan

Crusher, why do you let people on a message board get under your skin like this? Just ignore Jm if what he says bothers you this much. Don't worry, you can post freely and negatively about Taylor in less than 24 hours. That was meant in the friendliest of manners.

https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/9/30/16388958/tale-of-the-tape-what-happened-in-buffalo In case anyone is looking at a nice break down of over half of Taylor's passing yards, which came on 4 plays, here's a nice break down from Denver's perspective. I think it really establishes that Dennison came in with a really good offense of game plan.

Is this meant to imply that Taylor's QBR is deceiving and that he actually sucks? J/K

Wait, is that what you think you had to do if you bet the under and a loss? That you had to wish or root for them to lose or Taylor to throw under 200 yards just so you win a very friendly bet where your consequence for "losing" would simply be to say good things about your team that just won and your QB who just exceeded your expectations? Really? You were so unshakable in your confidence in Buffalo losing to Denver and Taylor failing that I just thought this was an opportunity for you to be definitively right about something and not just play the victim or be a paper tiger the way you are here in this thread.

Ironic he was so confident the Bills would get blown out but refused a simple, friendly bet. https://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/196527-bills-w-taylor-200-yards-a-fun-tbd-bet-this-gloomy-week/page-8?do=findComment&comment=4563886

Aren't you a season ticket holder? Not enthusiastic about the home win, huh? What do you do, sit on your hands moaning the whole time you're watching the game, win or loss?

Remember all the smack you were talking last week leading into the Broncos game? Too bad you refused to put your money (so to speak) where your mouth is and participate in the ">200 yards & W" bet that even Crusher and old school were willing to participate in. Do you seriously just always have to be this negative about the team and Taylor that you couldn't stand a fun little bet of being positive for a week? You speak so concretely about everything... are you just a paper tiger? You've said a number of times this team stands no chance of making the playoffs with Taylor at QB. Do you still feel that way?

Depends on what he's doing with those completions and attempts

Sounds about right I'd say. For now... It's convenient the way you do this. And you do it a lot. It's about how they're playing right now. This season. That PFF figure isn't recognizing Taylor as the 3rd best QB in all of the NFL. It's saying that through 3 games, they grade him as having the 3rd best (by their standards) this season, through only 3 games. Why is it so hard to understand that saying Taylor is playing better than Wilson or Rivers right now doesn't equal saying he's a better QB?

Taylor's 3rd down conversion % on 3rd down passes is 42.3% (guess you ignored my post above) and he's just about middle of the pack in the NFL. But that number is actually an improvement over the last 2 years.

This is what I think happened. But still, Jones was so wide open that you have to call it in unforced error. But regardless, that wasn't an easy throw. Also, on the one unforced error play mentioned in the OP, I remember Taylor seeming really upset at Clay on that. Really upset. Like upset because he expected Clay to cut back inside or something. Anyone else? Holy crap! I completely forgot that we get Henderson and Powell back after Atlanta. I actually think that will help the team a bit.

Hang on here. Is anyone talking about Taylor being as good as Brees or Brady? But at least take a more holistic approach here. Here are total touches (pass attempts+sacks+runs), NET yards (passing yards-sack yards+rushing yards), 1st down conversion % on 3rd down passes, 1st down % on all throws, and TD% for all throws. Brady 1035 / 125 / 8.3 / 50.0% / 41.8% / 7.3% Brees 845 / 114 / 7.4 / 43.3% / 36.9% / 5.4% Brees and especially Brady are pretty much going to be ahead of the pack in about every category, obviously. They're pass-centric offenses. But Stafford's probably a better comparison because the Lions run more than they pass. And a lot of Taylor's runs are on designed passing plays, so the numbers are probably closer. But here's how Taylor and Stafford compare. Stafford 713 / 120 / 5.9 / 40.0% / 34.6% / 6.5% Taylor 628 / 112 / 5.6 / 42.3% / 38.0% / 5.1% Much closer. Stafford averages about 28 yards more per game on a few more touches per game, so far. Taylor has been better on 3rd downs and throwing for 1st downs in general. While Stafford has thrown more TDs per attempt. At least try to align the types of offenses when you do these comparisons. Brees is always gonna throw a ton. So is Brady.

I've always felt that ESPN's QBR pretty accurately reflects the level of play for QBs across the NFL, in general. There are obviously exceptions, but I think looking at it gives a pretty good idea of how a QB played. Oh boy... that's gonna cause an uproar What are you showing us here? Pass attempts?

Timely passing yards. Ya know, I've been thinking about a comment another poster made to me last week regarding the bet thread I put up. And they told me we shouldn't include "garbage yards" and it would be fine. Of course, my bet naturally excluded garbage yards in the traditional sense, but it also got me thinking about garbage yards. In a way, isn't Tom Brady the King of Garbage yards and TDs? Think about his record breaking year with Randy Moss back in the almost-undefeated season, for example. The Patriots were just absolutely stomping on opponents deep into the 4th quarter. They absolutely crushed us that year: 56-10. And they were up 35-7 at the half. But the Patriots kept Brady in and kept passing the ball. Over 40 yards and a TD on their first drive of the 3rd quarter. Up 42-7. Did they take him out? Nope Brady came in for another drive against a team that literally stood no chance of coming back. And the Pats continued to pass the football on a drive where he passed for 40+ more yards and the Pats ended with a rushing TD. Finally, with the Pats up 49-7, Brady would take a seat for Matt Cassell. But were those 86 yards and a TD not garbage yards in the same way a QB's yards and TDs are garbage yards when coming from behind? I know the argument will become, "well it's clear that losing team is trying and they could easily just try to stop them." But do you seriously think that a defense that's in front by a lot on another team just stops trying? Or are their competitive juices flowing fast and free as they see an opportunity to rack up some of their own individual stats and embarrass the opponent even more? When you think about it this way, isn't it possible that with the offensive approach that's been largely the same from Roman to Lynn to Dennison has set this up so that Taylor's passing yards and TDs have been almost entirely meaningful rather than meaningless? And that across the NFL, most QBs have a helluva lot more garbage yards than Taylor largely because of a relatively similar approach I referred to above with the Patriots combined with the fact that plenty of other QBs are constantly playing from behind by a lot and passing the football? The thing is, QBs across the NFL lose more than they win when they have to pass the ball a lot more than their average. But when Taylor has actually had to pass and come from behind, there are examples where he and the team came oh-so-close because of his arm: Carolina last week, Seattle and Miami in 2016, and even the first NE game and the Giants game (barring terrible ref calls) of 2015. He's just not really getting over the hump. That doesn't mean he can't do it. He just hasn't. We'll see what happens this year if/when that happens. But stop getting so hung up on this total passing yards thing rather than looking at the when and the where of those passing yards and TDs. Timely passing yards do matter. That seems to largely be what Taylor's passing yards have been so far in his career.

Evidently not. See Sunday. Wow. So bitter over a win. Pretty sad.

yards yards yards yards yards blah blah blah blah blah Geez. Do people watch the games? How often last year did you folks harp on the Ravens game as the gameplan was to "make Taylor be a QB." Well, sounds like the Broncos had a similar gameplan. And it failed. Give Taylor some props for once, dude. My God.

Shotgun and play action when under center. No ****. Why didn't Dennison just already know this? It's been pretty obvious over the span of 2 years.

Good for you!

Poor wording on my part. I meant to imply there might be playoff games, too. And it's a virtual lock we'll take a QB in the first few rounds of the 2018 draft. Where is the question.

Weird. We largely agree. I'm a little surprised you think A is more likely. I just don't know. I think with Taylor everything is more about consistency at this point than drastically improving. I really want to see Week 1 & 3 Taylor most of the rest of the season. If we see that Taylor, I think that's the type of QB McDermott would love to move forward with. I'm just not utterly confident that's what we see and other than my fun little thread leading into the Denver game, I try to avoid predictions... partly because I'm sports superstitious. But our stockpile of draft picks are pretty sweet for 2018, that's for sure. EDIT: I realized after the fact that you might not believe what you just posted here because of the bet, but I do think those are essentially the two scenarios, though I think Taylor needs to be pretty good and consistent to not draft a guy in round 1. Dude, that's a minimum of 29 potential regular season games Taylor might have played in between now and the end of 2018. Yeah, that's a big "might" but a lot can happen between now and then for Taylor, especially if he plays more consistently like he did Sunday. Why are people so obsessed with 30 passes a game and 300 yards??? Notice that our offensive philosophy (yet again) doesn't seem pass-centric. I realize some are immediately going to point to that as proof that the staff doesn't trust Taylor to throw, but if Taylor's playing like he did Sunday and vs the Jets who cares how many times he passes if we're winning? Exactly. The same thing happened vs the Jets. It's baffling.

No But I just disagree. Nothing's ever set in stone in the NFL and the NFL is always proving that. I think we're incredibly likely to draft a QB in the 1st. I just think it's a little naïve to think OBD has a decision made so strongly that they aren't going to factor the next 13 games (or more...? ) into their QB decision.

That Tyrod might still be our starter in 2018? That's absolutely not only within the realm of possibility, but maybe even more likely than not. We're going to draft a QB. That much is inevitable. Where we draft him and how much we use our now vast resources to get him depends largely on Taylor's play this year. Nothing is written in stone, including us drafting a QB in the 1st round next year. Taylor's under contract next year. It's an $18 M one year option, if I remember correctly, so he could very easily still be our starter next year.

Now what we all want is for him to keep it up. The consistency thing is truly what he needs to prove. If Taylor can consistently play like he did yesterday or in week 1, he'll stick around for 2018 at least, regardless of the fact that we're still likely drafting a QB in the 1st. But if the passing game woes we saw against Carolina emerges, let's say, 5 or 6 more times this year, that's a huge problem. Next week will be interesting, that's for sure. Definitely not a week I'll make another one of these bets. I like to quit while I'm ahead

What am I looking at? Is this since his first game in 2015? If that's what you've compiled, good work

Nice post, Shaw. I'm going to say this: I've pretty strongly taken the position that a great coach and good or even average players is much more preferable than a good or average coach and great players. We heard all offseason about how this team lacks talent. Suddenly the narrative is going to change if Buffalo keeps winning that certain players who were otherwise average before are great talents. I just think McDermott's vision and "Do your job" and "trust the process" culture is really impacting this team in such a great way.