transplantbillsfan

I think the Browns are taking Darnold, particularly after what looked like a potentially historic pro-day for him, which is a shame because he and Mayfield are the 2 QBs I want most.

If it happens it happens and we'll all get behind Allen eventually. But for a coach and GM that have been pretty water tight over the last year in terms of leaks I just think there's way too much of a public connection here for this interest to be this real or this strong.

It's baffling to me that all Bills fans don't feel this way.

To the first question, you search for the best player in every draft at the time you're drafting. If you're drafting at the top of that draft... yeah, you're drafting a guy who you think could be a HOFer. Top of the draft yields more HOFers than any other area of the draft, plain and simple. Between 1936-1997 there were 111 former 1st round draft picks inducted into the HOF. 31% of all those guys were drafted as the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd picks of the draft. 12% of all those guys were the 1st overall pick. To the 2nd question, that's not my job, that's Beane's job.

Wow!!! I just looked at Yolo's thread about the rumored trade up and if it's true that's what the Bills proposed I was dead on

Who's this "us" and "we" you're referring to as though we take part in what we should keep and not keep? No, we didn't inherit Cordy Glenn, McDermott and Beane did. And did they use him AT ALL last year? Can you, miss something you never really used? Last year Dawkins and Mills we're our tackles and McDermott never ever knew an offense that consisted of Cordy Glenn as LT. And we didn't inherit the 21st and 22nd pick, McDermott and Beane earned them when they traded down in the draft last year. Someone else referenced Schopp in this thread... no, I definitely didn't call in I've never listened to him. I live 6,000 miles away from Buffalo. Maybe he's a TBD member

You're seriously underpaying if you think that's how we get to #2. I just think that won't get it done. Yeah I think that's about right. Might need to throw in a 4th rounder this year, though. A GM should do his HW and draft a QB in the top of the draft assuming, based on your scouting, that he's going to be a future HOFer. You don't refuse to go after that QB simply because the historical odds are he won't.

I'd love to only have to trade up to 7. And if 4 QBs grade out almost the same... okay then. Daniel Jeremiah recently compared his top 10 prospects in the 2016-2018 drafts and he basically says the difference between Darnold, Wentzville, Goff, and Rosen is negligible and he puts Mayfield and Allen ahead of Watson and Trubisky. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000922045/article/top-10-qb-prospects-of-past-3-nfl-draft-classes-darnold-no-1 So ya know what... if that's the case I'm still targeting Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield over Allen, but I'll eventually get excited about Allen's physical potential even if he doesn't have the college production the way Wentz or Big Ben or Flacco did at smaller schools against lesser competition even though that's what I think we should expect. The problem is that even if we have those 4 guys graded out about the same, there's a good chance you're going to have to trade up to get one of them anyway because all 4 could be gone in the top 10.

Did you inherit your car from someone else? Was it a car you just kinda had thrust upon you? Was it a car that you really weren't all that excited about at all? Do you have a spare car? If you answered "yes" to all of the above, then go right ahead, although again, the lotto ticket analogy is a poor one. Instead, sell the car on Craigslist for whatever cash you can get and utilize that money for a down payment for a new car that will be a massive upgrade on that other car you really didn't invest in at all but also didn't really want

An LT who never saw the field under McDermott and a QB & WR they inherited. The reason they can see it as house money is because they hadn't invested in any of those guys and, if anything, probably felt hamstrung by them. So not only did they unload them, they unloaded them for valuable draft capital. For the same reason I'm sure Jerry Hughes is still in play. Yes, I'll live with it, even if it's Allen, who I really don't want, because I'll trust that he's the guy McBeane truly believe in. #processtrusted

Right, at which point we can go out and spend for a couple big time FAs, which can hopefully balance out any extra draft picks we might need to give away for next year.

Jets actually overpaid by roughly 23%, if you're using the chart and accounting for the fact that the 2nd rounder in 2019 is roughly equal to a 3rd rounder this year. I'm pretty sure that's how they do it. If the Giants are saying exact value as what the Jets gave the Colts, we could probably just throw in our 1st next year. I really don't think that it'll take BOTH our 1st and 2nd next year ALONG WITH both 1sts this year, a 2nd and the 1st pick in round 3. I really also don't think Gettleman will necessarily operate that way because of both the relationship he has with McDermott and the fact that you start reaching ridiculousness territory at that point. Not really.

Yes... let's just keep waiting until next year's class. Throwing in a 2nd round pick next year doesn't seem all that unreasonable.

Do you seriously think that's a remotely fair comparison comparing playing the lottery to ensuring you draft the QB you want in what's being considered as one of the strongest QB classes in at least the last decade?

It's obviously going to be both firsts this year and then some. But all it will cost us in 2018 draft capital is house money. I don't think it'll be an additional 1st next year. Maybe a 2nd. But even if it is a 1st, I'm good with that if they pick the guy they really want.

The draft capital we'll give up is house money, even if it's all the way up to the Giants' #2 pick. (Obviously all of this is merely opinion ... I apologize for adding one more thread to a seemingly inundated and frustrated board) Our #12 pick was the result of swapping 1sts and trading away a player who may have played well for this team in years past but almost never saw the field (did he ever?) in 2017, our first playoff year in 17 years as a rookie filled in capably for the year and will only get better. Our #22 pick was from KC last year in our trade down in the 1st where we acquired a guy in Tre White who probably should have been in the pro bowl conversation if not the pro bowl itself. One of our 2nd rounders was acquired trading away a talented but oft-injured WR who then wasn't even resigned by the same team who traded for him. And based on Sammy's new salary with KC, he wouldn't be with the Bills even if McDermott exercised his 5th year rookie option. One of our 3rd rounders... the 1st one in the 3rd round, was acquired by trading away a QB that there was absolutely no long term plan on and filled in his slot with a QB who is at least capable of competing for the starting QB job at less than 1/3rd the cost of the guy we just traded away. We take those 4 picks, all "house money," and trade them all to the Giants for the #2 pick to grab Rosen/Darnold/Mayfield (please GOD not Allen!!!) and Beane still has all of Buffalo's original picks with a pick in all the remaining rounds other than the 7th. And before you say that cost isn't realistic, if you take a look at the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, I think you'll find different: #12 = 1200 points #22 = 780 points #53 = 370 points #65 = 265 points Grand total = 2615 points #2 pick = 2600 points So we're giving away picks Beane has been shrewdly acquiring, not picks we were already going to naturally possess. Now, perhaps it's going to take one more pick like a 2nd rounders next year to sweeten the pot a little, but maybe not. And that's in trading up to #2, which I believe is the highest we're going. Imagine if we wait until draft day and see a guy we want fall to #4 with the Browns or #6 with the Colts... it'll cost less and we'll still get our QB. I'm a little baffled that some are complaining about the idea of giving up draft picks, even if it ensures McBeane can get "their guy." I view this as the most important draft we've seen since maybe 1983 because we know with almost 100% certainty that the intent is to draft the guy who's going to be our QB for the next 10-15+ years. We can do that in a very strong QB draft class... and we can do it with house money

Holy crap!!! If your version is remotely close to reality I pray and pray and pray again we stay put at 12 and get Mayfield.

He will have an honest chance. What do you mean? He just needs to beat out Peterman and whatever rookie we draft. Do you think he should be handed the job?

Doubt it. most important offseason in maybe 35 years. Anything short of finding our QB for the next 10-15 years is a failure with all the jockeying in the draft Beane has done in the last year. Even Beane’s public comments were more liberal about trading up in the draft in his PC the other day. Somewhere in the top 12 we’ll draft a QB. My Dad and I just bet lunch on it today. That’ll be a good meal

We have 6 picks in the 1st 3 rounds. We can afford to trade up to get our guy, especially if it's to the #4 pick or lower. I think Mayfield would be that guy

Was this really necessary? Yeah, most sane people on this board understand that we don't know what Beane is going to do or plans to do. But it's 6 weeks before the draft... what's left for everyone to do but speculate? I get that you're frustrated because we have so long until the draft so we're inevitably going to be seeing a lot more of these prediction threads. And I feel bad for TBD old-timers because this is getting ridiculous in terms of thread after thread after thread being started... to the point where it's starting to look too much like BBMB 2.0. But I also think people are antsy and need to vent in their apprehension. This might be the most important draft we've seen since 1983. We're clearly going after our QB for the next 10-15 years and everyone knows who they want or don't want. And we have a long time to wait to find out. Just gotta deal with all the white noise, unfortunately.

So Hap... you think 21 to 12 is that "mild trade-up" for Jackson you hoped for?

Sure hope so

Yes, it drove it up a lot, but it was always going to cost us a lot to move up into the top of the draft. Maybe this just increases our chances of staying put at 12 and drafting whoever falls. As long as that's not Allen, I'm good with that. I'm sure McCarron is ecstatic right now.

McDermott and Gettleman have a relationship. Maybe they already have an agreement to trade even if they haven't agreed on trade capital, yet. Maybe all this did is drive up our price a little bit.