transplantbillsfan

I know what I originally asked. And that's not what I originally asked. The argument that ensued with Thurm (inevitably) pertained to the fact that there's such a small sample size, which somehow nullifies the point, which completely misses the fact that that actually is the point. Project QBs from big schools drafted for physical potential despite bleh college careers particularly on a sliding scale down rarely succeed the way Jay Cutler or Ryan Tannehill did. Project QBs from smaller schools with really good to spectacular college careers typically trending up has been the relative model for success if you want to include Kaep, Big Ben, Flacco and Wentz. But since Phil Simms was drafted in the 1st round in 1979, where are the QBs from small schools with bleh college careers who went onto even solid NFL careers? That was my original question. Blaine Gabbert and Josh Freeman certainly aren't recent examples and these are the only recent ones I can think of in the 1st round. Anyone else? Brett Favre was drafted in the 2nd, meets all the other criteria and went onto a HOF career, so expand the parameters to the 2nd. Brock Osweiler and Christian Hackenberg don't look like they're heading down that road. I know exactly what I asked. The fact that these guys haven't been drafted means something and, as one poster put it in another thread, is Josh Allen really this incredible exception to the rule or is some GM going to draft him because of hubris? If it's the former, awesome... maybe Allen is great and breaks the trend. If it's the latter, it's more of the same and seemed obvious. And I expanded the question outward to show that project QBs overwhelmingly don't work out, anyway. I think it's being generous including Big Ben, Flacco and Wentz in the criteria for Project QB since the questions for them was all about level of competition rather than accuracy, footwork, mechanics, etc. You can criticize me including them, but as far as "projects" go (and again, I think that summary I posted from Bortles's scouting report at nfl.com captured that definition perfectly), Wentz and Big Ben really weren't, but Flacco might have been. That was my logic for not including them. But even including them, you end up with maybe 10% of these guys being Franchise QBs this millennium. Not so good.

No. Revisionist history. And an incomplete Revisionist history at that. Yeah, Stafford had a low completion percentage overall in college, but he improved on it every year and in his last year he had a 61.5% completion %, threw for almost 3500 yards at 9 YPA at Georgia against serious competition and was the consensus 1st overall pick by nearly everyone. 4 years of grooming? In his 3rd year he threw for over 5000 yards and 40 TDs. He missed the vast majority of his 2nd year due to a shoulder injury. His rookie year he won the job from Daunte Culpepper and struggled mightily... probably because the Lions were just one year removed from being 0-16 and absolutely sucked as a team. Stafford certainly does NOT qualify as Project QB.

I understood what I asked okay, but even loosening up a little to be more inclusive so that they aren't just "top 10" guys,, since 2000 there have been 45 QBs drafted in the first round... and I'd say at least 10 of them were "projects" in the spirit of what the OP was asking. But back to my own criteria you think I'm confused about, I think Blaine Gabbert, Josh Freeman, JP Losman, Patrick Ramsey are all guys generally fit that criteria since 2000. All were busts. Loosening up more, Jake Locker was in a bigger conference but was utterly blah in college and pretty clearly drafted for potential. Bust. Jay Cutler played in the SEC but at one of the small schools and was mediocre. I think he's probably the closest thing a success story in the vein of what I was asking and what the OP asked. But if you then want to just expand it to the obvious projects despite college success you include guys like JaMarcus Russell, Tim Tebow, Ryan Tannehill, Paxton Lynch. Blake Bortles and Tannehill has have had some success, but the rest sure look like busts. Those guys might already be busting, too, particularly Bortles, who was just kinda oddly signed to a fairly lucrative extension. It's what comes with being overdrafted, though. Hap brought up the 2nd round as another place these project QBs are drafted. In terms of those project QBs... and again, these I at least (and I think the OP, too) define as guys who, to put it simply, are drafted because of their physical traits (height, arm strength, speed, etc) not in spite of them. Andy Dalton was drafted in spite of being a little short and having a little bit of a weaker arm. Russell Wilson was drafted, obviously, in spite of his height. Drew Brees was drafted in spite of his height. Those guys weren't viewed as projects. Projects need a ton of work, hence the "project" moniker. Those guys were viewed as developmental in the sense that there was hope that they'd develop into starting NFL QBs. I think the end of Blake Bortles scouting reports is almost precisely the definition of what a Project QB is: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/blake-bortles-1.html Possesses ideal size, athletic ability, intangibles and enough arm strength to develop into an upper-echelon quarterback. Is not yet a franchise quarterback, but has all the physical ingredients to become an outstanding NFL starter I feel like that could be simply cut and pasted into the definition of "Project QB," don't you? I realize that people are going to bring Big Ben, Carson Wentz and Flacco into the fold here, and while all of those guys had the physical gifts, they were also largely ahead of the game in terms of their footwork and mechanics for the NFL. They weren't project QBs in the spirit of that term. They were question marks in terms of level of competition and production in college translating to NFL success. Include them if you want. The success rate still doesn't look good for these guys. If we're going intothe 2nd round, Christian Hackenberg, Colin Kaepernick, Brock Osweiler, maybe even a guy like Brian Brohm were all projects who were drafted almost purely for that ball of clay physical potential. Kaep was almost a success story. Maybe he was. Went to a Super Bowl. Out of the league now. So since 2000 we've had 18 or 21 project QBs taken in the 1st or 2nd round (if you are or are not including Big Ben, Flacco and Wentz) and we've had maybe 3-6 success stories, optimistically with Cutler, Tannehill, Kaep and Big Ben, Wentz and Flacco if you stretch that definition a bit. 3 Franchise QBs, 3 starters who flashed at moments, 15 busts. Not exactly models of success. If we want to keep going back, we could find more examples, I'm sure. I only went back to 2000 and we still averaged more than 1 project QB per year. And on average, once every 6 years you're going to find a Franchise QB drafting a project QB. And Allen's background and history and production in college is notably worse than a lot of these other guys. And he regressed rather than progressed through college. Hence, my belief Allen's got about a 5% chance to go on in the NFL to be a Franchise QB. It's a chance. Not a very good one, but it's a chance. But it's sure one I hope Buffalo doesn't take.

Actually, he's never there when I wake up in the morning... I think he leaves in shame in the middle of the night, which would explain his overcompensation with his homophobic comments on here. One of these mornings he'll surprise me by coming back with coffee in the morning, though. I'm sure of it

Yeah, "project" and "developmental" are connotatively 2 very different things when it comes to QBs. Project QBs are those balls of clay supposedly ready to be molded into whatever you want. Guys who are raw but so physically talented that he (supposedly) just needs to be shaped into whatever you want with time. Developmental QBs are Day 3 guys in the draft. When you asked the question in the OP, I assumed you were talking about the former, not the latter. How was Stafford a project?

How is Mahomes a project QB in remotely the same way Allen will be a project QB? Mahomes was fantastic in college and was pretty sound in terms of accuracy and general fundamentals. The only real question about Mahomes related to the college system he was coming from.

Well... I guess the only thing he could do was add velocity... he sure wasn't going to lose any. I'm still waiting for that pass to reach the sideline at the end of the Jacksonville game

Super glad he's retiring a Bill. I wish he finished his career with Buffalo as a complement to Shady. He would have been a better option than Tolbert last year, that's for sure.

Thank you... hopefully a new messenger gets this across better

There are probably well over 80-120 guys who were drafted over the years as project QBs. Raw out of college and drafted for pure physical talent to mould like a ball of clay. These guys have been drafted higher than they should have throughout the history of the NFL. And, like Allen will be, they were drafted primarily for their physical potential, showing only possible flashes of that potential in college. These are guys you're going to essentially have to fundamentally change in the NFL. The OP asked a very simple question that you seem afraid to answer. Where are all these project QBs who have gone on to be good?

You are lost. Typical Thurm, lost in an argument. And still obsessed with Tyrod here I see. Literally obsessed that. But the irony that might be lost on you here, of course, is that the same logic you used consistently in arguing that Taylor wouldn't turn into a Franchise QB (which I was a solid believer in, I readily admit, up until the Steelers game of 2016) is the very same logic I'm using here and you're strangely adamantly denying. Remember obsessing over how only Rich Gannon became a Franchise QB after his 6th or 7th or whatever year in the NFL and how that was your knock on Taylor. So rather than your clear obsession over me and Tyrod Taylor... just answer the OP... who are the Project QBs historically who did reach potential? And true project QBs in the vein of Allen. Rodgers is probably one, but he had the benefit of sitting for 3 years. I could see a Rodgers like fall for Allen and a team like the Patriots drafting him as a project. Favre is another, but he was drafted in the 2nd round and was traded by the team that drafted him. Who else? Project QBs. Those guys are obvious in terms of category for pure physical ability and stature: EJ Manuel, Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Josh Freeman, etc. Hey... Thurm... remember how you argued historical tendencies????

I'm actually glad you brought up Carson Wentz. I think that this is simply the Carson Wentz effect. Think about it. 2 years ago Carson Wentz was coming out of college after having unbelievable success at a really small school. There were tons and tons of questions about him simply because of his level of competition. He was extremely physically gifted and was incredibly successful against the competition he played in college. But there were doubts about how that would translate to the NFL. Those doubts probably caused Cleveland to trade they're pick with the Rams and cause the Rams to pass on Wentz. Mistake? Oh yeah... despite Goff having a good 2017 campaign. But as soon as whence came into the NFL and had a really strong start, where could you look in college for the next Carson Wentz other than Wyoming? And what did Josh Allen do in 2016? He was pretty good. Maybe really good. Depending on your criteria. Suddenly, he's the Talk of the Town. Potentially the first pick of the draft next year! And then he followed that up with a blah 2017 campaign. "But hey! He still has all the physical tools, right? He could be the next Carson Wentz!" Of course, the 2018 draft is the perfect storm for Josh Allen because of all the teams in the NFL currently desperately wanting to draft a QB... and gee... national pundits and analysts have a clue, so yeah, they're also pumping him up a bit because the writing on the wall is there... it's a nearly 100% lock that at least 4 teams are drafting a QB in the 1st round this year: Cleveland, NYJ, Buffalo and Arizona. Then you throw in teams that might draft a QB because of a combination of potential need and circumstance with NYG, Denver, Miami, and even the Patriots with a potential trade up looming and it's pretty obvious this is going to be the most QBs drafted in the 1st round since... what... 1983? So sure, the media and pundits make money off being right. Saying Josh Allen will be drafted in the top 10 of the 1st round seems like a no-brainer. But I still won't be shocked if he falls.

Matt Ryan played in the ACC against serious competition... same with McNabb who plaued in the Big East at the tail end of being a legit football conference. And both of those guys improved every year in college. Klingler kinda fits. Not much of an NFL QB. Same with Ware before him. But both guys had record setting college careers which propelled them to the 1st round of the draft. Both were massive busts. And as far as Allen being rare for "being good enough in his situation to be considered a top 10 pick," well, I don't know what you mean by "good enough," but I thought of 2 cautionary tales that are frighteningly similar to Josh Allen: Jake Locker & Blaine Gabbert Maybe Josh Freeman. Really there have been plenty of project QBs drafted in the 1st round and even high in the history of the NFL. And several even meet what I thought was pretty basic criteria, but none have been successful. Does that ensure that Allen won't be successful? Well, no, of course not. But the odds are seriously against him historically. And frankly, it would be unwise to target a QB high in a top-heavy, QB rich draft who has maybe a 5% chance of becoming an NFL Franchise QB. Not impossible, just extremely unlikely.

Weird that in your 1st fact check you contradict your own facts by saying 2016 was his 1st year starting in college despite also mentioning that he transferred to Wyoming from a Juco, which means Junior COLLEGE. And did you seriously just say the Cam Newton comparison isn't far off and bring up competition like San Diego State in the same breath as a QB who played powerhouses like Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Clemson and won a National Championship game against Oregon

No one fits the Josh Allen project QB prototype for a guy drafted in the top 10 since Phil Simms in 1979. Steve McNair was an incredibly successful college QB, even if it was at a small school http://www.espn.com/page2/s/list/collegefootball/seasons.html McNair's incredible season, in which he led his 1-AA team to an 8-2-1 record, will always be suspect -- he was playing on a pass-giddy team against smaller competition. But the heck with the doubters. Troy State head coach Larry Blakeney, who coached Bo Jackson during his 12 years at Auburn, told the L.A. Times, "Steve McNair is the best football player I've ever seen. ... He'd be the best player on Colorado's team or Nebraska's team, too. He'd be the best player on any team in Division I-A. He's that good. ... He can do more to beat you with his abilities than anyone else I've ever seen. That includes Bo." McNair's stats: 4,863 yards passing, 936 yards rushing for an NCAA record 5,799 yards in total offense. QB rating: 155.4. TD passes: 44. And in the Heisman voting, he managed to finish third despite the doubters, and received 111 first-place votes. Brett Favre can be viewed in the same light as Josh Allen in terms of entering the NFL. He was also a 2nd round draft pick and traded away to have his eventual HOF career with a team that didn't draft him. Phil Simms. I've been challenging someone to find me a QB between 1979 and now who played at a small college against mediocre competition and had mediocre stats who was drafted in the top 10 of the 1st round and went onto a good NFL career. Still waiting

You don't have 12 friggin minutes to spare??? Yah right, this thread begs to differ. Whatever dude, I hope we get Mayfield or Darnold. It's already clear the division that's going to continue on this board if we draft Jackson. Wherever he does end up, I think you'll be very surprised how successful he is as an NFL QB.

I'm not invalidating my score. I just told you it stands. You're right in a sense about hubris in the sense that I just decided to take the test on a whim for fun during recess in my classroom with students chatting and doing work on the side. And I was a bit dismissive of it in terms of attitude. Do you know Lamar Jackson's approach to the test? Do you know if he took it seriously? Based off his own history, if anything, it's possible schools did what they often do for star athletes which is push them through the system at a lower bar than regular students purely because of how talented they are and what they bring to their school. So, it's possible that Jackson doesn't have the same amount of knowledge you or I have, but knowledge does not equal intelligence and knowledge doesn't really relate to one's ability to process new information. As far as processing football information of an offense and on the field... well, there's his game tape and there's also how damn hard he worked as he came into Louisville without having ever had to use an offensive playbook in High School: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2662128-the-education-of-lamar-jackson-how-louisville-qb-went-from-project-to-superstar The Education of Lamar Jackson: How Louisville QB Went from Project to Superstar He picked Louisville, knowing coach Bobby Petrino's history of developing QBs. Then Petrino delivered the playbook. "It looked like foreign letters," Jackson remembers. "I came from a high school where I didn't have a playbook or anything like that. Coach would draw it up and get the headset on, and we'd go after it." and And so when Jackson arrived on campus, he was not even named among the three guys who might be the starting quarterback. The playbook was still Greek to him, as were progressions, tight ends in motion and blitzes. Darn blitzes. That was a year ago. A few days ago, he threw for six touchdowns and ran for two more. and "At first, I was like, 'Why are they trying to make me do this?'" Jackson says. "'I'm trying to sleep.' It was crazy. I'd watch my bad plays—my good plays, too." The truth is, at first he wasn't even sure exactly what he was watching. Then it started making sense, and he realized he enjoyed it. "When I started getting more into it, I realized, 'This is what I'm here for.'" and Petrino says some of the things usually considered "natural intangibles" need to be worked on, too. For example, last year, Jackson was petrified to talk with the media. So he took a media class and also enlisted the help of a local reporter.

If you honestly think that test is indicative of your intelligence, you're pretty naïve. I scored a 22 when I discovered that test and decided to take it. I really have no shame in saying that was my score. And I wouldn't have any shame in saying I scored a 13 if I did. I see standardized tests up close and personal all the time and understand the incredibly flawed nature of them in terms of what they're designed to measure versus what they actually measure. I've seen your posts. You're not almost twice as smart as me. I won't make any excuses for that score, whatsoever, but I know that a 22 on the Wonderlic is not indicative of my actual intelligence because I know that if I sat here and took that test again in a quiet room, focused and used some test taking strategies, I could drastically improve my score. But I'll let that 22 stand because I don't have anything to prove to myself. If anything, taking that test just further proves to me the idiocy of standardized tests, in general.

Can you tell me which of these questions are the strongest indicators of NFL success for a QB and how they apply to an NFL football field? Casey needed to move 23 huge boxes from his truck to the loading dock. His forklift could only hold three boxes at once. How many times did Casey have to visit the loading dock? Which word is different from the others? (Apple, Orange, Watermelon, Celery, Tomato) In four years, Phil will be half Tim’s age. Two years ago, Tim was five times Phil’s age. How old is Phil now? To thwart is to: (threaten, oppose, weaken, make fun of) What word, when added to the beginning of MILL and the end of CHAIN, creates two other words? Choose the sentence that most closely resembles the meaning of the proverb, “The pen is mightier than the sword.”

Pointless thread. We're getting a QB in the 1st round. I'll put money down on that one if you want.

BWAHAHAHAHA!!! I'm sure the irony of this is lost on you, Shady, but I'm done in here. Have fun.

I really don't care, actually. I just find it ironic because you often complain about other people starting useless threads, which this is, or posting them in the wrong forum, which this probably is. But have your fun

https://footballiqscore.com/ Do us all a favor. 1) Take the test right now with no practice. I'm betting that's what Jackson did since he's probably the only high profile coming out in decades to not have an Agent who would force him to practice and prepare for the test itself. The truth of the matter is that you can drastically improve your score on standardized tests with a few simple test taking strategies. It's often not indicative of intelligence or processing speed, but prior practice and proper test taking strategies. and 2) Tell us which questions apply to being a QB on an NFL field in terms of executing an offensive playbook and reading defenses. Maybe he just didn't think the test was worth a damn so he broke with convention and didn't prepare for the exam. From the sounds of it, it's possible the kid (and his mother) is so sick and tired of being cajoled time and time again into trying out other positions like punt returner or WR when all he's wanted to be is a QB and he's had historic success at the position after the last couple of years that's he's just at a "take it or leave it," point. He's going to be playing QB for a football team, he's not going to be a rocket scientist. What's the point of a standardized test? If you argue it's processing speed or ability to execute an NFL offense, he could just point to his college film over the last 2 years in an NFL offense against high-level competition.

So, you thought a quote coming less than 2 weeks before the draft by a Head Coach who is drafting late in the 1st round and in no position to draft any of the top QBs, but is probably ready to pounce on any potential QB who falls to him as his eventual replacement has any credibility whatsoever? C'mon man. This isn't even Bills worthy. It should be in some other "Around the NFL" forum.

Well... yeah, you're guilty. Glad you can admit that. It's like if people in this thread called you a loser. Just because you're proving in this thread you're a loser, it's still a personal attack.