BullBuchanan

No. His peak is likely a #4 WR. If we could have him back right now, he wouldn't make the 53 next season. He was in our system for 3 years, so it's unlikely we missed anything. He had a volume-based moment in the sun and I'm happy for the kid. I'm not going to be drafting him in fantasy next year though.

Yea, but wait till they factor in the Chad Hall departure.

I have no idea how any team is going to trade for Rodgers with his cap hit.

Jimmy has to be the favoite for the Raiders.

Jets and it's not close. there might only be a couple positions where they aren't as strong and one of them is Kicker. That said, QB matters more than the rest combined. If they can't sign a good player there, they wont be a real threat to anything.

100% guaranteed they aren't ever getting better after 5 years of experience. This is the best he will ever be. From here injury risk goes up and athleticism goes down. If he was a smarter/more instinctual player that would carry his prime out longer and delay his decline, but those traits aren't a plus for him. This is why

I couldn't . The All pro playing next to this 17 year old makes $10m

Yes. Every team has a chance to win their division. Just because you're a 12-5 team, it doesn't mean you're better than a 9-8 team. All it means is that you got more wins and the reasons for that could be extensive. We all saw that this year. It was just as dumb of an argument when the Bengals cried about it as it is now. At that point you might as well banish conferences and divisions and just have one league. Of course then every team would have to play each other, you'd have to get rid of bye weeks and everyone would have to play at a neutral site equidistant from every other team just to make it totally fair. There are a ton of dynamics that make records what they are, and the NFL is as fair as anyone. The team that deserves to win the super bowl almost always does. The rest is just window dressing.

Nobody tell PFR. 6. OL Spencer Brown (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images) Overall grade: 53.4 NFL positional ranking: 76th of 84 qualifying https://billswire.usatoday.com/lists/pro-football-focus-buffalo-bills-rodger-saffold-spencer-brown/?utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0akCLnbsphAyZ7kwevDYtCG9C4NxdkVqOqeBBuG1LmwY7SkOjX7H7n7EM vs Tristan Wirfs, 2nd Team all pro and Pro Bowler

It happened for the 4th time ever this year. It doesn't need to be a reason to change everything. If the Bucs hadn't made it, the Lions would have gotten in. No one cares, not even Detroit.

No, i didn't complain about that. I noted the overall value of an all pro being the same as a player who is one of the worst players in the league.

PFF's rating would be far better than attempting to asses draft pick performance based on overall team performance as AV appears to be doing. That at least grades a player independently. AV may actually be a useful counter metric as it tells you what players performed on strong teams so a player with a high PFF and a low AV may be better than one with a High/High With respect to journalists using these values, they aren't statisticians. As I mentioned, you're free to create whatever model you want comprised of whatever metrics you deem relevant, but it's the questions you ask when creating it and the insights you glean from it that matter and come under scrutiny. In this case, I think the formula for AV isn't telling you which players performed the best, so it isn't a useful metric when considering who had a strong draft.

Which is a metric you invented right? You're using this definition to determine what players had good seasons vs poor ones using AV "Offense Every team gets this many points to divvy up among its offensive players: team_offense_points = 100 * (team offensive points per drive) / (league average offensive points per drive), where offensive points per drive = (7*(rushTD+passTD) + 3*FG) / (rushTD + passTD + turnovers + punts + FGA) Offensive line As a unit, the offensive line for a given team will share this many points: team_points_for_o_line = 5 / 11 * team_offense_points For each offensive lineman (and fullback and tight end), we define: individual_points = [(games played) + 5*(games started)*(pos_multiplier)] * (all_pro_multiplier), where pos_multiplier = 1.2 for tackles, 1.0 for guards and centers, 0.3 for fullbacks, and 0.2 for tight ends, and all_pro_multiplier = 1.9 for first-team AP all-pro, 1.6 for second-team AP all-pro, and 1.3 for a pro bowler who was not first- or second-team all-pro. [NOTE: all_pro_multiplier is for tackles, guards, and centers only, not fullbacks or tight ends.] Finally, each individual player receives this many points: approx_value = (individual_points) / (sum of individual_points for all players on team) * (team_points_for_o_line)" Did you actually read that when you came up with this and decided it was viable? John Miller's second season had a 9 - which is better than all of Wyatt teller's years but 1 where he had 10. A model that grades like that can't be relied upon as an indicator of success. it's MASSIVELY skewed in favor of offensive points scored rather than individual contribution. Spencer Brown registered a 9 this year, and I think we can all agree he's atrocious. that score of 9 would have outperformed 7 of Orlando Pace's seasons.

I understand it just fine. I'm using the weighted AV. Using AV of the player's rookie year alone would be a far worse way to judge the performance of a draft. The chiefs would get a 0 for Mahomes in 2017 despite drafting the best QB in 20 years

the wAV of guard John Miller is 31 and the guard Wyatt Teller has a wAV of 29 the wAV of WR Sammy Watkins is 48 and the wAV of WR Justin Jefferson is 39 I'd say the model is flawed to everyone who has ever watched football. Great question. A model needs to start with questions, and you asked some good ones while calculating your formula but you need to backtest it to be sure that it gives accurate results. The more accurate you try to be, the less reliable it's likely to be, so you need a reliable grade of performance first and foremost. There are multiple other problems that need to be solved for. An example of some: If you're weighting against draft position, you need to consider the difference of value between pick value within a round as the #1 overall pick is much different than the #32 pick and they don't average out over time since it's based on performance, not chance. You should really be grading performance against that position int he draft, but statistical significance will be impossible to obtain since there haven't been enough #1 picks, and you'd have to grade performance for all players ever at that slot, and there may be position bias. If you're grading performance, you need to make sure you're grading performance against games played, expected games played and role. If you drafted Breece Hall and he was an all pro for half the season and then went down due to injury, you need to be careful about how that compares to a guy that played all 16 games but was less impressive. Likewise if a DB was drafted in the 6th round but was a standout special teamer, you need to ensure he ranks comparably against a player who played a lot more downs in a DB role but didn't perform well.

no, I read it. Your model is flawed because it's based on a known bad value. This doesn't work. It's definitely an admirable attempt, but the underlying data isn't any good.| "What I did was found the average value for a player drafted in each round (1-7) in each year (2017-2019) and the calculated what I am calling the Net Drafted Accumulated Value (NETDrAV) for each pick in each round. I only compared each draft to itself. I then found the Total Net Drafted Accumulated Value (TOT_NETDrAV) for each team in each draft and ranked them against each other. Rather than just looking at how much raw value the Bills brought in as compared to the 31 other teams, this gives an idea of how much extra value they extracted in each round as compared to the 31 other teams in the league. TOT_NETDrAV is the AV that a team has benefitted from directly on their team as compared to players and teams in their draft class. TOT_NETCarAV is just the pure amount of value that players drafted by a given team have produced as compared to players and teams in their draft class."

Yes, but you understand that are an infinite number of ways you could try to evaluate success and it doesn't mean that any of those models have to accurately do so, right? This model ranks Wyatt Teller as a 5th round pick that has 2 2nd team all pros and 2 pro bowls as a 29 which is equal to how they rank Ed Oliver as a 9th overall pick. Cody Ford is a 15 and Dawson Knox is a 16... John Miller (remember him?) is a 31. If that doesn't make you reconsider treating this in a HIGHLY skeptical manner, I can't help you.

it says they grade poorly on a model. You can't use a single model to determine truth. They are inputs from which insights must be gleaned. They don't tell you how to interpret the data or whether the data is valid. You could create a model of career earnings of people based on their favorite color and find a runaway with people who loved orange and found that those who liked green earned the least. That wouldn't mean it was a reliable predictor of anything.

What's wrong with it, is they weren't very good at all. They ranked highly in this model, which is great but not sure that correlates to successful drafts. Take out 2017 because that was Whaley's draft, and the results are not in the Bills' favor at all. Looking at 1st-3rd round picks across each draft of the last 5 years is pretty disappointing. I think what's skewing this is the Bills starting players that shouldn't be starting.

If this model suggests that the Bills are the best team in the league at drafting, I might suggest the model doesn't have much value. In 5 years we've drafted 2 great players and a handful of good ones.

The greatest coach of all-time and the greatest QB of all-time. It's not that complicated and it's unlikely to ever happen again. If Andy Reid was 20 years younger maybe.

Have you heard of Drew Bledsoe? Allen is still chasing that fella.

He did tie Ja'marr Chase though, so there's that.

Dorsey is less of a concern because he's young and just had his first year. Leslie's been coaching for 35 years and for at least the last 15 his defense has been what it is today. get used to more of the same. It's not just Frazier though, even if he is a massive part of it. I've been convinced that this team won't win a championship under McDermott unless it's just flat out gifted to us through upsets/injuries to the best teams in the league. He's a nice guy who creates a culture of nice guys and they'll have the kind of success that nice guys get, while the teams that go hard take eat their lunch year after year. We're Marty Schottenheimer's Chargers with less talent..

Don't worry, we traded Mahomes for Tre White(with his new knee upgrade he should be better than ever!), Dion Dawkins (Leader of a great O-Line), Zay Jones (a great #2 WR for the Jags), Siran Neal (you literally can't have enough special teams aces), and Tremaine Edmunds (can you believe he's still only 17?).